Sorry if this seems repetitive with the Kareem thread, but I wanted to talk about this in a more general sense as opposed to being focused on Roy's offseason training regimen.
There seems to be a disconnect with the way Roy is valued around here, I think way, way too much emphasis has been put on the last three months of the season. I'm not trying to deny or excuse Roy's poor play during that stretch, he was bad. What I do think, is that projecting forward that the Roy of the last half of the 13/14 season is the Roy we are going to have going forward, is just short sighted. I believe in regression toward the mean. We have plenty of data to determine who Roy Hibbert is as a player, and how he will produce.
I've seen some suggest Hibbert has been "figured out" or exposed, I think that is nonsense. Hibbert today has the same weaknesses he had as a rookie, he'll never be an elite rebounder, he will always struggle when matched up with a stretch 5 because he is limited athletically. Other teams did not "suddenly" figure this out halfway through the season, that's ridiculous. Roy Hibbert was an all star three years ago. He had the same limitations then, it is not any sort of news, it did not prevent him having an excellent first half of the season (the defensive anchor to a top seeded team while still being a two way player). At one time he was considered a lock for DPOY. The same concept applies again there, Roy had some extreme ups and down this past season... He's not "first half" Roy anymore than he is "second half" Roy, he is somewhere in between.In statistics, regression toward (or to) the mean is the phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement—and, paradoxically, if it is extreme on its second measurement, it will tend to have been closer to the average on its first. To avoid making incorrect inferences, regression toward the mean must be considered when designing scientific experiments and interpreting data.
I've averaged Hibbert's stats for the past 4 seasons (I'm leaving out the first two where he was still a developing player) to get a picture of who Roy is as a player. 4 years means a whole lot more to me than 3 months.
29 MPG - 46% from the floor - 7.8 RPG - 12.2 PPG - 2.15 BPG - 1.6 APG
Roughly a 12/8 Center with 45% + efficiency. Capable of giving you more than 2 blocks per game and almost 2 assists a game (above average passer for a big). Two way player with ok post game (not dominant), in addition, he is an elite rim protector. There's a lot of positive there, and thats why he got the contract he did. Bigs are valuable... Its why we had the best defense in the NBA.
As far as intangibles go, he is an extremely hard worker who sometimes lets his emotions effect his play. Can be prone to slumps and mental blocks when things are not going his way. He is also limited athletically, which will create problems in certain match-ups. He will never be a great rebounder.
There's your Roy Hibbert scouting report, it contains very little information that we didn't already have 3 or 4 seasons ago.
Roy's slump coincided with some chemistry problems, and its hard to know exactly what went on unless you were in that locker room. If I'm going to speculate, the Lance Stephenson all star snub, coupled with a shift toward the perimeter in regard to offense and a reduced offensive role for Roy, may have contributed heavily to this downward spiral. I think the "selfish dudes" comment was something clearly directed toward Stephenson. There were issues here, and Roy let it get the better of him.
I'm not excusing it, it is what it is. Roy is a player who lets his emotions get the better of him and he lets it effect his play. Its not an ideal situation, but its part of who he is as a player.
That being said, this combustible ingredient has been removed for this upcoming season. We are likely to see the offense running through the post again as we did in the 11/12 season. If we are to believe Involved Roy = Happy Roy = Productive Roy. Then this is good news.
In 2011/12 We had a team that featured a healthy Granger and better floor spacing, and an offense that ran through the post. Stephenson rode the bench, our primary ball handlers were Hill/Collison. This team posted an offensive efficiency rating of 103.5 ...good enough for 9th in the league. That's top ten folks. compared to this past season's rating of 101.5 which was ranked 22nd in the league, respectively.
This is why I don't believe losing Stephenson hurts the offense so much. We were bad last year because of poor spacing, and we've added a serious floor spacer (Miles). We managed to be top 10 in offensive efficiency with Hill as the primary ball handler once before, I see no reason we can't replicate that if we fix the spacing issue (And I believe we did).
I don't know if these things will actually happen, I don't know for sure that Roy will get his head on straight, I'm not psychic. I just think the "trade Hibbert and Hill for a bag of chips because we are doomed" crowd should consider taking a deep breath, and letting things play out.