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Thread: Lets talk about Roy Hibbert

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    Default Lets talk about Roy Hibbert

    Sorry if this seems repetitive with the Kareem thread, but I wanted to talk about this in a more general sense as opposed to being focused on Roy's offseason training regimen.

    There seems to be a disconnect with the way Roy is valued around here, I think way, way too much emphasis has been put on the last three months of the season. I'm not trying to deny or excuse Roy's poor play during that stretch, he was bad. What I do think, is that projecting forward that the Roy of the last half of the 13/14 season is the Roy we are going to have going forward, is just short sighted. I believe in regression toward the mean. We have plenty of data to determine who Roy Hibbert is as a player, and how he will produce.

    In statistics, regression toward (or to) the mean is the phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement—and, paradoxically, if it is extreme on its second measurement, it will tend to have been closer to the average on its first.[1][2][3] To avoid making incorrect inferences, regression toward the mean must be considered when designing scientific experiments and interpreting data.
    I've seen some suggest Hibbert has been "figured out" or exposed, I think that is nonsense. Hibbert today has the same weaknesses he had as a rookie, he'll never be an elite rebounder, he will always struggle when matched up with a stretch 5 because he is limited athletically. Other teams did not "suddenly" figure this out halfway through the season, that's ridiculous. Roy Hibbert was an all star three years ago. He had the same limitations then, it is not any sort of news, it did not prevent him having an excellent first half of the season (the defensive anchor to a top seeded team while still being a two way player). At one time he was considered a lock for DPOY. The same concept applies again there, Roy had some extreme ups and down this past season... He's not "first half" Roy anymore than he is "second half" Roy, he is somewhere in between.

    I've averaged Hibbert's stats for the past 4 seasons (I'm leaving out the first two where he was still a developing player) to get a picture of who Roy is as a player. 4 years means a whole lot more to me than 3 months.

    29 MPG - 46% from the floor - 7.8 RPG - 12.2 PPG - 2.15 BPG - 1.6 APG

    Roughly a 12/8 Center with 45% + efficiency. Capable of giving you more than 2 blocks per game and almost 2 assists a game (above average passer for a big). Two way player with ok post game (not dominant), in addition, he is an elite rim protector. There's a lot of positive there, and thats why he got the contract he did. Bigs are valuable... Its why we had the best defense in the NBA.

    As far as intangibles go, he is an extremely hard worker who sometimes lets his emotions effect his play. Can be prone to slumps and mental blocks when things are not going his way. He is also limited athletically, which will create problems in certain match-ups. He will never be a great rebounder.

    There's your Roy Hibbert scouting report, it contains very little information that we didn't already have 3 or 4 seasons ago.

    Roy's slump coincided with some chemistry problems, and its hard to know exactly what went on unless you were in that locker room. If I'm going to speculate, the Lance Stephenson all star snub, coupled with a shift toward the perimeter in regard to offense and a reduced offensive role for Roy, may have contributed heavily to this downward spiral. I think the "selfish dudes" comment was something clearly directed toward Stephenson. There were issues here, and Roy let it get the better of him.

    I'm not excusing it, it is what it is. Roy is a player who lets his emotions get the better of him and he lets it effect his play. Its not an ideal situation, but its part of who he is as a player.

    That being said, this combustible ingredient has been removed for this upcoming season. We are likely to see the offense running through the post again as we did in the 11/12 season. If we are to believe Involved Roy = Happy Roy = Productive Roy. Then this is good news.

    In 2011/12 We had a team that featured a healthy Granger and better floor spacing, and an offense that ran through the post. Stephenson rode the bench, our primary ball handlers were Hill/Collison. This team posted an offensive efficiency rating of 103.5 ...good enough for 9th in the league. That's top ten folks. compared to this past season's rating of 101.5 which was ranked 22nd in the league, respectively.

    This is why I don't believe losing Stephenson hurts the offense so much. We were bad last year because of poor spacing, and we've added a serious floor spacer (Miles). We managed to be top 10 in offensive efficiency with Hill as the primary ball handler once before, I see no reason we can't replicate that if we fix the spacing issue (And I believe we did).

    I don't know if these things will actually happen, I don't know for sure that Roy will get his head on straight, I'm not psychic. I just think the "trade Hibbert and Hill for a bag of chips because we are doomed" crowd should consider taking a deep breath, and letting things play out.
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    Default Re: Lets talk about Roy Hibbert

    I have said it in two other threads, but I think next season will be the best season of his career, If I had to guess, I would say 13/9 numbers from him on 46-47% shooting.

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    Default Re: Lets talk about Roy Hibbert

    You just compared CJ Miles to pre-injury Danny Granger. I'm sorry but that's the noteworthy part of your post to me, other than the bolded part which assures me that nine is indeed a number between one and ten.

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    Default Re: Lets talk about Roy Hibbert

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    You just compared CJ Miles to pre-injury Danny Granger. I'm sorry but that's the noteworthy part of your post to me, other than the bolded part which assures me that nine is indeed a number between one and ten.
    Wrong, I said CJ Miles was going to space the floor, something that Danny Granger used to do for us. This is not the same as saying "CJ Miles will replace Danny Grangers impact/production".

    People forget one major difference between the 11/12 team and the current team is how much better Paul George has gotten in this time span. Grangers role on that team has been replaced by Paul George on this team. We have a "better" best player. CJ Miles is simply the 5th starter with a clearly defined role. Big difference.
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    Default Re: Lets talk about Roy Hibbert

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    You just compared CJ Miles to pre-injury Danny Granger. I'm sorry but that's the noteworthy part of your post to me, other than the bolded part which assures me that nine is indeed a number between one and ten.
    He compared CJ Miles to 2012 Granger, not All Star Granger. There is a difference. Anyways his point is the right pieces is more important than more talent. Which was proven by the Spurs in the finals. Now, do the Pacers have the right pieces? I am still not so sure unless Paul George can play 48 minutes throughout the playoffs and be consistent. I think Miles is a fine fit with the starting 5. Whose going to lead our 2nd lineup is the question for me.

    I also agree 4 years of Roy is a better sample than 3 months. Great post.

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    Default Re: Lets talk about Roy Hibbert

    Quote Originally Posted by Infinite MAN_force View Post
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    Wrong, I said CJ Miles was going to space the floor, something that Danny Granger used to do for us. This is not the same as saying "CJ Miles will replace Danny Grangers impact/production".
    You're either directly comparing the two, or you're inferring that any decent 3-point shooter can be what Danny Granger was. No real middle ground here.

    Quote Originally Posted by brownjake43 View Post
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    He compared CJ Miles to 2012 Granger, not All Star Granger. There is a difference.
    The difference being Granger was "only" averaging 19 points per game in 2012, by far the best on the team.

    My point isn't that Miles isn't a good fit. My point is the other guys on the team won't magically become better players with Miles and without Stephenson. Yeah he annoyed the rest of the team to the point of exhaustion but that did not give them license to collapse like they did. Hibbert has to play like he gives a damn again. That's on him, nobody else.

    Hibbert could have been far better than he was last season. Don't care who the starting SG was last year or who it will be this year.
    Last edited by Kstat; 07-23-2014 at 03:53 PM.

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    Default Re: Lets talk about Roy Hibbert

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    You're either directly comparing the two, or you're inferring that any decent 3-point shooter can be what Danny Granger was. No real middle ground

    .
    All I'm saying is the team needs a consistent three point threat to maximize it's offensive efficiency.

    If that used to be "Player X" and now it's "Player Y" that in no way shape or form implies a direct player comparison. We simply had a different team dynamic. Instead of our best player being our best floor spacer, we have a role player as our best floor spacer. Regardless of who does it, the team needs someone to do it.

    All the other stuff that Granger did? We don't need Miles to do, that's what we have Paul George for, and he does them better than Granger.

    A lot has changed for Paul George since 2011, he was basically a role player then and the 4th leading scorer behind Danny, Roy, and West. The team dynamic is completely different now.
    Last edited by Infinite MAN_force; 07-23-2014 at 04:07 PM.
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    Default Re: Lets talk about Roy Hibbert

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    You're either directly comparing the two, or you're inferring that any decent 3-point shooter can be what Danny Granger was. No real middle ground here.
    Not quite. I think the point is that when Lance replaced Danny on the wing (yeah, I know, Lance was at 2 and PG slid to 3) we changed from a team that was successful shooting from the perimeter. All he's saying is that CJ will affect Roy more like Danny than like Lance - i.e. will tend to spread the floor rather than bring the ball into the middle.
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    Default Re: Lets talk about Roy Hibbert

    You're over-complicating it. They need Roy Hibbert to not be a mopey slug to maximize its efficiency.

    It isn't like Hibbert needs floor spacing to take his game to another level. Who in their right mind was going to make him a defensive focus last season, especially over the last 3 months? Nobody was sending multiple defenders at him like he was Patrick Ewing.

    Quote Originally Posted by Infinite MAN_force View Post
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    All the other stuff that Granger did? We don't need Miles to do, that's what we have Paul George for, and he does them better than Granger.
    ...thus nullifying your earlier point about Granger being missed....
    Last edited by Kstat; 07-23-2014 at 04:10 PM.

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    Default Re: Lets talk about Roy Hibbert

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    You're either directly comparing the two, or you're inferring that any decent 3-point shooter can be what Danny Granger was. No real middle ground here.



    The difference being Granger was "only" averaging 19 points per game in 2012, by far the best on the team.

    My point isn't that Miles isn't a good fit. My point is the other guys on the team won't magically become better players with Miles and without Stephenson. Yeah he annoyed the rest of the team to the point of exhaustion but that did not give them license to collapse like they did. Hibbert has to play like he gives a damn again. That's on him, nobody else.

    Hibbert could have been far better than he was last season. Don't care who the starting SG was last year or who it will be this year.
    Maybe I can explain the "replacing Danny" thing better or maybe it has been said and I'm missing it and everyone just disagrees...

    But it seems to me we were a better team with someone on the wing being less aggressive and NOT dominating the ball.

    3 seasons ago Danny was the best player, and PG kind of took a back seat and let the game come to him. Then 2 seasons ago PG became the star and Lance (or the beginning of the season Green) took a back seat and let the game come to him. Then last season PG was still the star, but Lance took control as a major distributor and it worked well for the team. But then his aggressiveness stopped making plays for others and it was ONE of the things that hurt the team.

    Point is, what works best for the Pacers is a guy that makes jump shots and passes the ball. Young Lance and Paul had those roles and the Pacers were better for it. I believe an older and better shooting CJ Miles may fill that role better, but who knows.

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    Default Re: Lets talk about Roy Hibbert

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    Nobody was sending multiple defenders at him like he was Patrick Ewing.
    Completely false. Teams were throwing tripleteams at him. It was actually brilliant. It wasn't to stop him as much as it was an automatic turnover.

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    Default Re: Lets talk about Roy Hibbert

    Quote Originally Posted by freddielewis14 View Post
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    Maybe I can explain the "replacing Danny" thing better or maybe it has been said and I'm missing it and everyone just disagrees...

    But it seems to me we were a better team with someone on the wing being less aggressive and NOT dominating the ball.

    3 seasons ago Danny was the best player, and PG kind of took a back seat and let the game come to him. Then 2 seasons ago PG became the star and Lance (or the beginning of the season Green) took a back seat and let the game come to him. Then last season PG was still the star, but Lance took control as a major distributor and it worked well for the team. But then his aggressiveness stopped making plays for others and it was ONE of the things that hurt the team.

    Point is, what works best for the Pacers is a guy that makes jump shots and passes the ball. Young Lance and Paul had those roles and the Pacers were better for it. I believe an older and better shooting CJ Miles may fill that role better, but who knows.
    They started out the season 33-7. Nobody was pointing out flaws in the structure of the roster then. Let's not revise history and pretend that the team badly needed a role playing floor spacer instead of the league leader in triple doubles and they would have been fine. A lot of guys quit, for whatever reason. Obviously Lance played a role in the downfall of team chemistry, but how he functioned as a player was not really a factor as much as the other players rolling their eyes and pouting over it.
    Last edited by Kstat; 07-23-2014 at 04:24 PM.

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    Default Re: Lets talk about Roy Hibbert

    Quote Originally Posted by freddielewis14 View Post
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    Completely false. Teams were throwing tripleteams at him. It was actually brilliant. It wasn't to stop him as much as it was an automatic turnover.
    Those were occasional traps, which would not have been helped by better outside shooting, wince roy wasn't passing out of them anyway.

    It wasn't about being the team everyone loved, it was about beating the teams everyone else loved.

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    Default Re: Lets talk about Roy Hibbert

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    They started out the season 33-7. Nobody was pointing out flaws in the structure of the roster then. Let's not revise history and pretend that the team badly needed a role playing floor spacer instead of the league leader in triple doubles and they would have been fine. A lot of guys quit, for whatever reason.
    Like I said, who knows? I'm not saying the theory is 100% correct, just that I get the idea. Is it possible that Lance changed his winning style of play at All Star break? Is it possible the team, including Roy, was worn down? Did these things combine with team turmoil from losing greatly affect Roy's play and best solution is losing Lance and adding floor spacing and better ball movement?

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    Default Re: Lets talk about Roy Hibbert

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    Those were occasional traps, which would not have been helped by better outside shooting, wince roy wasn't passing out of them anyway.
    It was all playoffs. And when he passed out we weren't making teams pay. West would get shut out to.

    Spacing was a problem for the starters. I don't know how you could watch the playoffs and not see that.

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    Default Re: Lets talk about Roy Hibbert

    Quote Originally Posted by freddielewis14 View Post
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    Like I said, who knows? I'm not saying the theory is 100% correct, just that I get the idea. Is it possible that Lance changed his winning style of play at All Star break? Is it possible the team, including Roy, was worn down? Did these things combine with team turmoil from losing greatly affect Roy's play and best solution is losing Lance and adding floor spacing and better ball movement?
    Oh, I'm not debating Roy was worn down at least partly by Lance. I'm saying Roy had no excuse for allowing that to happen. He had a total mental meltdown and he embarrassed himself.

    Miles is a fit, albeit totally irrelevant to Roy's desire to actually play hard. He's presumably a guy that will not rock the boat in the locker room, which I guess is an improvement from Lance but the bottom line is the guys already there need to provide most of the improvement for the Pacers to maintain last season's pace.
    Last edited by Kstat; 07-23-2014 at 04:35 PM.

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    Default Re: Lets talk about Roy Hibbert

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueCollarColts View Post
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    I have said it in two other threads, but I think next season will be the best season of his career, If I had to guess, I would say 13/9 numbers from him on 46-47% shooting.
    If I had to guess I'd say Roy will have a string of several solid games. And he'll also have a stretch of games that will have fans wondering if we can get a bag of Doritos for him. It's a guess based on past experience. The harder to make prediction is whether the slump will be in the first half of the season or the end of the season. Last season showed us it can be either.
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    Default Re: Lets talk about Roy Hibbert

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    Oh, I'm not debating Roy was worn down at least partly by Lance. I'm saying Roy had no excuse for allowing that to happen. He had a total mental meltdown and it he embarrassed himself.
    I'm not here to make excuses for Roy, and I agree with you. I'm just talking solutions for salvaging our 7 footer. I don't buy that it was just a complete mental freakout. That was part of it, but I think there are bigger contributors.

    How about Vogel making Roy trot out to the 3PT line to set a screen, all season? All playoffs? Who does that help? How does that help the offense run smooth? You shave 10 games off his legs last year right there. And talking about stalling the offense. Even Slick was wondering what the heck that was!

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    Default Re: Lets talk about Roy Hibbert

    As far as Roy being figured out... it's not just Roy, it's the team. I'm sure at some point the thinking was if we do X then the Pacers will do Y and counter us successfully. Then someone (was it Phoenix?) eventually did X and found out the Pacers didn't counter it. Blame it on coaching or personnel if you want.... but then Roy just went into the tank and never recovered making it worse and worse.
    Nuntius was right. I was wrong. Frank Vogel has retained his job.

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    Default Re: Lets talk about Roy Hibbert

    Seriously, the screens at the 3PT line, all game, every game. Why would Roy be made to do this? Can someone explain?

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    Default Re: Lets talk about Roy Hibbert

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    They started out the season 33-7. Nobody was pointing out flaws in the structure of the roster then. Let's not revise history and pretend that the team badly needed a role playing floor spacer instead of the league leader in triple doubles and they would have been fine. A lot of guys quit, for whatever reason. Obviously Lance played a role in the downfall of team chemistry, but how he functioned as a player was not really a factor as much as the other players rolling their eyes and pouting over it.
    You could argue they started out 33-7 until the offense shifted to be overly perimeter oriented with Lance (and Paul) dominating the ball more. Maybe I've oversold the point about spacing, obviously it will help, but I like the idea of adding a player into the lineup that's going to be effective without the ball in his hands. We had some overlapping roles and the team looks more balanced to me now. Lance was playing off the ball more and dominating it far less during the good stretch.
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    Default Re: Lets talk about Roy Hibbert

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    As far as Roy being figured out... it's not just Roy, it's the team. I'm sure at some point the thinking was if we do X then the Pacers will do Y and counter us successfully. Then someone (was it Phoenix?) eventually did X and found out the Pacers didn't counter it. Blame it on coaching or personnel if you want.... but then Roy just went into the tank and never recovered making it worse and worse.
    If this is true, it seems to put more of the blame on Vogel and his ability to adjust. I hope this is an area where he can grow as a coach.
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    Default Re: Lets talk about Roy Hibbert

    Quote Originally Posted by Infinite MAN_force View Post
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    You could argue they started out 33-7 until the offense shifted to be overly perimeter oriented with Lance (and Paul) dominating the ball more. Maybe I've oversold the point about spacing, obviously it will help, but I like the idea of adding a player into the lineup that's going to be effective without the ball in his hands. We had some overlapping roles and the team looks more balanced to me now. Lance was playing off the ball more and dominating it far less during the good stretch.
    Lance and PG dominated the ball right out of the gate last year and were the main reasons that we were 33-7.

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  42. #24

    Default Re: Lets talk about Roy Hibbert

    I'd be happy if Roy didn't fall down everytime down court. I'd also be surprised.

  43. #25

    Default Re: Lets talk about Roy Hibbert

    Quote Originally Posted by freddielewis14 View Post
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    Seriously, the screens at the 3PT line, all game, every game. Why would Roy be made to do this? Can someone explain?
    What else is he supposed to do, just stand in the paint and clog it up all game? If he doesn't pull the opposing centers out our guards have no driving lanes. If he was reliable enough with his back to the basket and demanded a double I'd agree he should stay down there, but he's not.

    There's really no good way go use Roy offensively because he sucks at it.

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