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Thread: Larry Bird stunned Lance left

  1. #251
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    Default Re: Larry Bird stunned Lance left

    Quote Originally Posted by Peck View Post
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    Statistics are fine, they are important and even essential to an extent. However I think McKeyfan and myself share the same thought that you can not "not" view a game and gather the mathematics at the end and determine how the game was played and get a true picture of the game.

    The deeper we get into advanced stats the more I am convinced that the old basic stats are still the most important ones and that a lot of these advanced metrics are subject to interpretation.

    There is a balance between the two because as you point out the final score is a stat, but I also subscribe to intuition over integers philosophy as well.

    I'm not going to disagree with anything you've said, but I'll just say that "I watch the games" is one of the laziest, narcassistic "points" a poster can come up with. Instead of actually, you know, offering a rebuttal I get a declaration of "because I said so."
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    What if someone from a school of business or management school were to ask, How did you do this? How did you get the Pacers turned around? Is there a general approach you've taken that can be summarized?

    Larry Bird: Yeah, patience.

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    Default Re: Larry Bird stunned Lance left

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    One of the problems with at least some of the advanced stats and their advanced metrics is the game itself dictates how it is being played by the players (and coaches) on a game by game basis and can negatively or positively impact things that the stats might seem to otherwise be saying.
    Which is why you don't use single game stats, and use seasonal averages.
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.” ― Ricky Gervais.

    What if someone from a school of business or management school were to ask, How did you do this? How did you get the Pacers turned around? Is there a general approach you've taken that can be summarized?

    Larry Bird: Yeah, patience.

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  4. #253
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    Default Re: Larry Bird stunned Lance left

    Quote Originally Posted by graphic-er View Post
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    Let just end this thread with everyone thoughts on the following...

    If Lance blows up over the next 3 years do you want Larry Bird to chase him in Free Agency? Should he be part of Larry's long term plan for this team?
    It seems like several teams begin the targeting process for certain player years in advance now days. If this came to be true, Larry would be paying Lance a bigger contract than PG. Both Hibbert and West expire in 2 years. Would you be willing to see the Pacers make a few stop gap 1 year signings (ie- tread water) for one year to target Lance the All-Star?
    Ha ha, that's enough fodder to double the length of the thread.
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    Default Re: Larry Bird stunned Lance left

    I think chasing a top-level Lance in free agency would be a mistake for the Pacers. As has been pointed out over and over, teams like the Pacers need to find guys on reasonable contracts and fit them together - the Spurs model, if you will, since they never have had multiple guys on max contracts at the same time.

    Chasing yet another max FA is a fools game when you can't surround him with solid, lower salary players.
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    Default Re: Larry Bird stunned Lance left

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    Bottomline with me is this. If lance matures, if he truly becomes a team player, if he stops most of his antics, if he learns to play hard when he isn't in the spotlight, if he improves his shooting if he learns to play NBA basketball, and if he becomes a better teammate, all things he is capable of doing, the the pacers made a huge mistake letting him go. And I don't care about salary cap issues or other player issues, but if lance does all those things then he will be too good to have passed up.

    I doubt he'll be able to do all of that and I seriously doubt lance and PG could have co-existed

    I stated after Stephenson took the Charlotte offer that I never felt he and PG could co-exist. I just feel Stephenson can't accept not being "the" player on a team. To me, it would have been too much of a urinating contest between the two as to which was the "greatest" player. Too much, "I" instead of TEAM, and that applies to both of them.

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    Default Re: Larry Bird stunned Lance left

    He is the problem with the "just watch the game" only crowd. Statistics can expose them for having a bad eye. And we all watch games looking for proof that our eye is the real deal in assessing the game. So we want to see Lance as an elite player, we overlook the negatives and extenuate the positives. Meanwhile with ROY, Hill, and Granger we extenuate the negatives and overlook the positives. Well except for ROY. He can just suck and a blind man who never experienced basketball could affirm that.
    Li
    The overlook/extenuate pattern is what leads to most of the over analyzation on this board. With statistics and eye test flung around. I can agree that the statistics don't tell the entire story. But sometimes there are posters who I think are watching a completely different game than me. Their eyes fail them. We need balance in both.

    And if you are an all of nothing poster. You are more than likely being ignored by most people. Enter into a discussion objectively and subjectively.

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    Default Re: Larry Bird stunned Lance left

    The only scenario in which I could see Lance ever returning would be after he causes an implosion in the Hornet's locker room and they miss the playoffs for the next 2 years while Lance collects his stats and has a few more J.R. Smith type antics on the court. Charlotte decides not to pick up the team option in year 3 and Lance's value mirrors that of Stuckey this year. A player with decent stats and issues that make him a minimum contract player. Bird would be one of the few people ready to give him another shot. Then we get Lance in years 3-5 for only 2-3 mil per year instead of 9.
    I'd say the odds of that happening are about equal to the odds of Lance becoming a max contract player in his next free agency.

  10. #258
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    Default Re: Larry Bird stunned Lance left

    I think the next max player type, they hope is a true Point Guard that makes people around him better, not Lance.

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    Default Re: Larry Bird stunned Lance left

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    I think chasing a top-level Lance in free agency would be a mistake for the Pacers. As has been pointed out over and over, teams like the Pacers need to find guys on reasonable contracts and fit them together - the Spurs model, if you will, since they never have had multiple guys on max contracts at the same time.

    Chasing yet another max FA is a fools game when you can't surround him with solid, lower salary players.
    I think just because historically we haven't doesn't mean we won't. We also have a pretty big drought of championships so maybe we need to try something different around PG if this core can't get it done in the next 2 years.

    The tax limit rising the way it does gives small market teams more flexibility to spend.
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    Default Re: Larry Bird stunned Lance left

    Quote Originally Posted by aamcguy View Post
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    The tax limit rising the way it does gives small market teams more flexibility to spend.
    Problem is that it also does the same for big market teams, so those max salaries will be going up by just as much.
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    Default Re: Larry Bird stunned Lance left

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    I think chasing a top-level Lance in free agency would be a mistake for the Pacers. As has been pointed out over and over, teams like the Pacers need to find guys on reasonable contracts and fit them together - the Spurs model, if you will, since they never have had multiple guys on max contracts at the same time.

    Chasing yet another max FA is a fools game when you can't surround him with solid, lower salary players.
    The Spurs model involves getting absurdly lucky in the draft lottery so that you can get the greatest PF of all time (while you still had an all time great center) who is still a beast at age 38, and surrounding him with a couple of the greatest international players of all time who have also been timeless. That core has been together for 12 years and has been pretty generous with their salary demands.
    Last edited by Sollozzo; 07-22-2014 at 10:31 AM.

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    Default Re: Larry Bird stunned Lance left

    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute View Post
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    dal9 is right, we're hard capped by the apron because of the CJ Miles signing. (I keep harping on the Miles signing, but it's nothing against him personally - in CBA terms it really took away a huge amount of flexibility.)

    Lance couldn't even sign our original 5 year $44m offer anymore, unless we waived someone first.
    And THAT is what it comes down to in the end IMHO.
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    Default Re: Larry Bird stunned Lance left

    Quote Originally Posted by aamcguy View Post
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    The tax limit rising the way it does gives small market teams more flexibility to spend.
    Not necessarily. Overall league revenues may be growing faster than local markets. If, for example, the Pacers' revenues are growing by 5%, but the Lakers' and Knicks' are growing by 20% (all figures made up), then the league will eventually end up with a salary cap and luxury tax level that is unaffordable for the Pacers. On the bright side, there's revenue sharing, which should even out these uneven revenue growths. And also, the huge influx of money is expected to come from the national TV contract, which as far as I know is equally shared by all teams.

    But I still think back to a couple of years ago, when Bird admitted that the Pacers have an internal budget that's lower than the tax level. That's an additional restriction that I hope we don't need to impose on ourselves.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    The Spurs model involves getting absurdly lucky in the draft lottery so that you can get the greatest PF of all time (while you still had an all time great center) who is still a beast at age 38, and surrounding him with a couple of the greatest international players of all time who have also been timeless. That core has been together for 12 years and has been pretty generous with their salary demands.
    So true. I'll bet small market GMs all hate the Spurs' guts LOL. They must be tired of all the "why can't you be like the Spurs" comments from fans, media, and possibly their owners too.

    The Spurs never had to deal with multiple max contracts because they managed to lock up their #2 and #3 guys on affordable long term contracts. In today's market, both Manu and Parker at their peaks would probably get max offers. How the Spurs manage this is black magic on the same magnitude as Phoenix's medical staff.

    Spurs also rarely overpay their role players. Instead they have a magical ability to go the trash heap and pull out a contributor out of a guy like Diaw or Bonner or Belinelli or Green.

    I'd love for us to be like the Spurs but I don't think it's realistic. they're really a world apart from everyone else.

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    I think chasing a top-level Lance in free agency would be a mistake for the Pacers. As has been pointed out over and over, teams like the Pacers need to find guys on reasonable contracts and fit them together - the Spurs model, if you will, since they never have had multiple guys on max contracts at the same time.

    Chasing yet another max FA is a fools game when you can't surround him with solid, lower salary players.
    It's said that the 2 best value contracts in the NBA are a) rookie contracts; and b) superstars on max contracts. In both cases, you have the CBA artificially limiting the player's actual value.

    So LeBron at $20m is a bargain for example, because he's worth much more than that on the court. Similarly, we will be paying Paul G some $20m+ in 2018 (and possibly more because he has a player option), but if he turns into mini-LeBron like we're hoping then it would easily be worth it.

    So chasing max type players is indeed a worthy strategy, as long as the guy we're chasing is a true superstar. here we come to the problem of course, because how do you tell the real superstars apart? Right now there's a lot of guys being paid like superstars when they actually aren't. But in theory chasing max FAs is a good strategy.

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    Default Re: Larry Bird stunned Lance left

    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute View Post
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    So chasing max type players is indeed a worthy strategy, as long as the guy we're chasing is a true superstar. here we come to the problem of course, because how do you tell the real superstars apart? Right now there's a lot of guys being paid like superstars when they actually aren't. But in theory chasing max FAs is a good strategy.
    I'd counter that chasing multiple max FAs on the same team increases the chanc es of having at least one max player who doesn't contribute at that level. If the goal is to have value for money at each position (with all that value contributing toward the goal of a championship) then I would say money is better spent on rookies and exception-level roleplayers while focusing on a single (or maybe 2) max guys who you are certain will play the way they are paid.
    BillS

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    Default Re: Larry Bird stunned Lance left

    Drafting Lance Stephenson in the second round and turning him into a stud starter was kind of Spur-like considering that Parker and Manu were drafted pretty late (Manu in the second). The difference is that the Spurs were able to keep those guys.

    The Pacers core has been all about the money. Even David West at the end of his prime is making a pretty damn high salary.

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    Default Re: Larry Bird stunned Lance left

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    Which is why you don't use single game stats, and use seasonal averages.
    I'll just watch the games...
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    Default Re: Larry Bird stunned Lance left

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    Drafting Lance Stephenson in the second round and turning him into a stud starter was kind of Spur-like considering that Parker and Manu were drafted pretty late (Manu in the second). The difference is that the Spurs were able to keep those guys.

    The Pacers core has been all about the money. Even David West at the end of his prime is making a pretty damn high salary.
    Donnie "I'll write the check" Walsh made the Pacers a great place to be overpaid. Which leads to higher expectations by players and agents. ...Except of course for Brad Miller...
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    Default Re: Larry Bird stunned Lance left

    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute View Post
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    Not necessarily. Overall league revenues may be growing faster than local markets. If, for example, the Pacers' revenues are growing by 5%, but the Lakers' and Knicks' are growing by 20% (all figures made up), then the league will eventually end up with a salary cap and luxury tax level that is unaffordable for the Pacers. On the bright side, there's revenue sharing, which should even out these uneven revenue growths. And also, the huge influx of money is expected to come from the national TV contract, which as far as I know is equally shared by all teams.

    But I still think back to a couple of years ago, when Bird admitted that the Pacers have an internal budget that's lower than the tax level. That's an additional restriction that I hope we don't need to impose on ourselves.



    So true. I'll bet small market GMs all hate the Spurs' guts LOL. They must be tired of all the "why can't you be like the Spurs" comments from fans, media, and possibly their owners too.

    The Spurs never had to deal with multiple max contracts because they managed to lock up their #2 and #3 guys on affordable long term contracts. In today's market, both Manu and Parker at their peaks would probably get max offers. How the Spurs manage this is black magic on the same magnitude as Phoenix's medical staff.

    Spurs also rarely overpay their role players. Instead they have a magical ability to go the trash heap and pull out a contributor out of a guy like Diaw or Bonner or Belinelli or Green.

    I'd love for us to be like the Spurs but I don't think it's realistic. they're really a world apart from everyone else.



    It's said that the 2 best value contracts in the NBA are a) rookie contracts; and b) superstars on max contracts. In both cases, you have the CBA artificially limiting the player's actual value.

    So LeBron at $20m is a bargain for example, because he's worth much more than that on the court. Similarly, we will be paying Paul G some $20m+ in 2018 (and possibly more because he has a player option), but if he turns into mini-LeBron like we're hoping then it would easily be worth it.

    So chasing max type players is indeed a worthy strategy, as long as the guy we're chasing is a true superstar. here we come to the problem of course, because how do you tell the real superstars apart? Right now there's a lot of guys being paid like superstars when they actually aren't. But in theory chasing max FAs is a good strategy.
    Yeah, asking a small market team to follow the "Spurs Model" (getting lucky to win Duncan lottery when D-Rob was hurt, teaming Duncan with two of the greatest international players ever who were drafted late) is about the same as asking NFL teams to follow the "Colts model" (riding Peyton Manning for 13 years and then using his injury to tank when the next "big thing" was coming out). Some franchises in sports just get really really lucky. The Spurs and Colts are great examples of ridiculous luck.
    Last edited by Sollozzo; 07-22-2014 at 12:13 PM.

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    Default Re: Larry Bird stunned Lance left

    Well at the very least people are no longer clamoring for small market teams to be run like the Thunder. That used to drive me insane when everybody (including national talk guys who should know better) would proclaim all small market teams should be run like that.


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    Default Re: Larry Bird stunned Lance left

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    I'd counter that chasing multiple max FAs on the same team increases the chanc es of having at least one max player who doesn't contribute at that level. If the goal is to have value for money at each position (with all that value contributing toward the goal of a championship) then I would say money is better spent on rookies and exception-level roleplayers while focusing on a single (or maybe 2) max guys who you are certain will play the way they are paid.
    There's an additional level of complexity beyond having good value at each position, I think. You still need to have some minimum level of team talent to make the playoffs/conf. finals/ finals etc. So for example, in theory a roster made up entirely of rookie contracts and minimum level players would be very good value but you'll probably have trouble winning games let alone making the playoffs.

    Likewise, for a contending team there's probably some minimum level of talent you need to reach in order to be competitive, and you won't always be able to get guys who are good value AND talented at every position (unless you're the Spurs). So that's another reason in favor of superstars on max contracts - they can kill 2 birds with one stone, in terms of being both good value and being able to raise the talent level of the team significantly.

    It seems evident now that our team building strategy was sustainable only while PG and Lance remained on rookie contracts. Those rookie contracts ended this year, and not coincidentally we lost a core player right away. We'll need to hope the draft delivers another talented guy soon to keep the engine running.
    Last edited by wintermute; 07-22-2014 at 12:58 PM.

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    Default Re: Larry Bird stunned Lance left

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    Yeah, asking a small market team to follow the "Spurs Model" (getting lucky to win Duncan lottery when D-Rob was hurt, teaming Duncan with two of the greatest international players ever who were drafted late) is about the same as asking NFL teams to follow the "Colts model" (riding Peyton Manning for 13 years and then using his injury to tank when the next "big thing" was coming out). Some franchises in sports just get really really lucky. The Spurs and Colts are great examples of ridiculous luck.
    Nice Pun

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  33. #272
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    Default Re: Larry Bird stunned Lance left

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    The Spurs model involves getting absurdly lucky in the draft lottery so that you can get the greatest PF of all time (while you still had an all time great center) who is still a beast at age 38, and surrounding him with a couple of the greatest international players of all time who have also been timeless. That core has been together for 12 years and has been pretty generous with their salary demands.
    That is less about luck and more about building and managing a great franchise. Not saying they have not had more than their share of luck.

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    Default Re: Larry Bird stunned Lance left

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    That is less about luck and more about building and managing a great franchise. Not saying they have not had more than their share of luck.
    Things have a way of falling into place when you have the greatest PF ever and also one of the greatest coaches ever. They get all of the credit in the world for selecting Parker and Manu so late, but them being so great for so long is definitely a bit lucky.

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  36. #274
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    Default Re: Larry Bird stunned Lance left

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    Except as was further explained, there is no definition of midway that makes this article correct. There cannot be a player option in any year except the final year of a contract. Unless you have some convoluted way to make midway and final synonymous, you're simply wrong. There's no semantics here.
    If this is indeed the case, then I'm wrong. LeBron just opted out of the last two years of his contract, so that's what I was going on. This change must have occurred in the last few years.

    [EDIT] So LeBron had an early termination option, not a player option. So why couldn't they give Lance an ETO?
    Last edited by Kid Minneapolis; 07-22-2014 at 01:50 PM.
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    Default Re: Larry Bird stunned Lance left

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    I'd counter that chasing multiple max FAs on the same team increases the chanc es of having at least one max player who doesn't contribute at that level. If the goal is to have value for money at each position (with all that value contributing toward the goal of a championship) then I would say money is better spent on rookies and exception-level roleplayers while focusing on a single (or maybe 2) max guys who you are certain will play the way they are paid.
    I agree with your premise, but let me ask you this: How many max guys are there? Was it good to throw near max money at Carmelo? Howard?

    I guess the point I am getting at is that I think a lineup that goes B+, B, C, C, C-, beats a lineup that goes A, B, F, F, F more times that not. I think the only guys in the league right now that are true A+ max money guys are Lebron and Durant. Other than that I would let the Houston's, Dallas, and New York's of the world fight each other to get the opportunity to overpay guys while we fill our roster with glue guys who work together. Based on the fact we are a small market this especially makes sense to me.

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