The news is flying fast and furious on July 2 already....
Today let's look at a quick guess on what the Pacers offer to Stephenson likely was and how it was structured, and what it could mean going forward. Plus, a few quick thoughts on Damjan Rudez.
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This isn't confirmed and is just an educated guess, but I think this was very close to how the Pacers offer to Lance Stephenson was probably structured:
2014/2015: $8,050,000--------------------That would be about $500,000 or so more than what I thought it would be.
2015/2016: $8,412,250--------------------4.5% raise, I thought Indiana might try and get away with 4.0%
2015/2016: $8,790,801--------------------again, a 4.5% raise.
2016/2017: $9,186,387--------------------again, a 4.5% raise.
2017/2018: $9,599,774--------------------again, a 4.5% raise and a 5th year offered, which I didn't think Indiana would do.
Total: 5 years, $44,039,212
That exact offer is interesting for many reasons I think. Here are a few of them:
1. If I am correct, Indiana took great care to make sure they offered Lance Stephenson just a LITTLE BIT MORE than George Hill makes.....I wonder if Hill's salary was a source of discontent with Lance in our chemistry issues during the season? Or, I wonder if Stephenson mentally just doesn't want to be the lowest paid starter on our team? Ego and pride can be devilish things to deal with......
2. I also wonder if Indiana has knowledge of the salary cap and luxury tax ceiling being just a touch higher than has been reported so far. If the estimated numbers of a $63,200,000 cap number and $77,000,000 luxury tax number are off just by a little bit, that could theoretically change our calculations on staying just under the tax number. I doubt they are off by much, but if they go up by just $5,000,000 to a $1,000,000 or so, that matters to us in terms of what we can offer Stephenson.
3. There is no reporting yet on my suggestion that Indiana give Stephenson an "opt out" clause after year 2 of this deal, to coincide when Hibbert and West have their contracts run out. I think that added bit of flexibility toward Stephenson might be a nice sweetener.
4. I think the 5th year offer is surprising to me, but it is clearly the only real way Indiana can compete financially and offer him something no one else can. If I were advising Lance though, I'd want him to take a shorter deal anyway so he can hit the market again at a younger age, so I am not sure that helped our offer all that much.
5. This also makes me believe that Indiana likely has somewhere in their back pocket that they can move Copeland (or Mahinmi I suppose) in a deal somewhere for a salary dump if they in fact need to do so......there will be many teams with leftover cap space and no one to spend it on when this free agency merry go round ends, and I assume Indiana has those deals or something similar lined up and ready if need be.
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Let's talk Luis Scola for a minute.
I know many of you are speculating that he will be gone almost assuredly now, with us signing or being interested in a couple of smaller free agents and with our offer to Lance Stephenson coming in a bit higher than expected (though not by much).
I am not sure I agree with that sentiment. I still believe that for 2.9 million (which is the difference between the 1.9 million we owe him no matter what we do and the 4.8 million that his total contract is for if we keep him) is small enough that Bird will believe that is a bargain.
Plus, I think Indiana truly values his maturity and his overall game....and he could be a nice mentor now for Damjan Rudez. I think Scola still remains with Indiana, unless................
What if Scola was a hidden chemistry issue?
Hear me out: What if Scola was frustrated with coming off the bench, playing less minutes than he ever had before, and playing a more limited and different offensive role than he ever had before? What if he was unhappy about the different lifestyle in Indianapolis, and the relatively low IQ teammates he played with on Indiana's 2nd unit? What if he constantly spent time in the locker room bickering about such things?
What if Scola making millions more than Stephenson rankled Lance enough that he complained in the locker room about that, and what if some of the veteran guys defended Scola in the bickering? Couldn't that be one of the small things that eroded away at Indiana's chemistry a year ago?
I am not saying any of that is true at all, I am just saying that it is possible. I remain convinced (mostly) that Indiana didn't have any one MAJOR chemistry issue last year, instead they just had several smaller ones that festered as the season went on.
And what would Indiana do if Scola privately went to Larry Bird and asked him to NOT bring him back next year? Would Bird tell him to suck it up and play because we need him (In Bird's mind)? Or would Bird just tell him ok, and quietly let him go?
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Finally, thoughts on Damjan Rudez.
I have not scouted him intensely yet, but after he was mentioned by the media a few weeks ago as working out for NBA teams (with Indiana being prominently mentioned back then), I did gather some material and study him some.
Rudez may be 6'10, but he is a 3 man, no question about it. He is only 210lbs at best and he plays very softly and weakly.....he lacks strength big time. He is a perimeter player only, which to me means he doesn't really effect any decision on Scola whatsoever.
He has great shooting form, and a very high and quick release. His shot isn't totally text book but it is close, and he will not have any trouble getting it off if he can get open.
He is also a pretty good passer, and for someone 6'10 he can handle the ball well. He is creative, smart offensive, sees the floor, and understands how to play offense.
But I have no clue who he can guard. He has to guard perimeter guys, because he is so weak strength wise. But he is slow and gangly, and gets his feet crossed up some in his slide. He has shorter arms than you'd think and he doesn't jump well quickly....he is a below the rim below average athlete for a NBA wing.
He also might be the worst rebounder I have ever seen. He can't react to the ball, can't block out due to the lack of strength, and quite frankly he is more interested in leaking out and trying to get in position for a transition 3 pointer. He averaged less than 2 rebounds a game, and that was playing against more unathletic guys than he will see in the NBA.
Rudez is a project, except that at his age he can't BE a project. But at best he is a guy who this particular year will just have to develop in practice and in the D league, because I don't see how he can see the floor other than in garbage time. Maybe in 2015/2016 or beyond that, after a year of getting used to the NBA game, he can bring something to the table, but for next year I just don't see it at this point. Don't in your mind be banking on him for any credible role next year.
Think of a destitute man's version of Mike Dunleavy when you compare him to someone.
This time until next time......
Tbird
Today let's look at a quick guess on what the Pacers offer to Stephenson likely was and how it was structured, and what it could mean going forward. Plus, a few quick thoughts on Damjan Rudez.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This isn't confirmed and is just an educated guess, but I think this was very close to how the Pacers offer to Lance Stephenson was probably structured:
2014/2015: $8,050,000--------------------That would be about $500,000 or so more than what I thought it would be.
2015/2016: $8,412,250--------------------4.5% raise, I thought Indiana might try and get away with 4.0%
2015/2016: $8,790,801--------------------again, a 4.5% raise.
2016/2017: $9,186,387--------------------again, a 4.5% raise.
2017/2018: $9,599,774--------------------again, a 4.5% raise and a 5th year offered, which I didn't think Indiana would do.
Total: 5 years, $44,039,212
That exact offer is interesting for many reasons I think. Here are a few of them:
1. If I am correct, Indiana took great care to make sure they offered Lance Stephenson just a LITTLE BIT MORE than George Hill makes.....I wonder if Hill's salary was a source of discontent with Lance in our chemistry issues during the season? Or, I wonder if Stephenson mentally just doesn't want to be the lowest paid starter on our team? Ego and pride can be devilish things to deal with......
2. I also wonder if Indiana has knowledge of the salary cap and luxury tax ceiling being just a touch higher than has been reported so far. If the estimated numbers of a $63,200,000 cap number and $77,000,000 luxury tax number are off just by a little bit, that could theoretically change our calculations on staying just under the tax number. I doubt they are off by much, but if they go up by just $5,000,000 to a $1,000,000 or so, that matters to us in terms of what we can offer Stephenson.
3. There is no reporting yet on my suggestion that Indiana give Stephenson an "opt out" clause after year 2 of this deal, to coincide when Hibbert and West have their contracts run out. I think that added bit of flexibility toward Stephenson might be a nice sweetener.
4. I think the 5th year offer is surprising to me, but it is clearly the only real way Indiana can compete financially and offer him something no one else can. If I were advising Lance though, I'd want him to take a shorter deal anyway so he can hit the market again at a younger age, so I am not sure that helped our offer all that much.
5. This also makes me believe that Indiana likely has somewhere in their back pocket that they can move Copeland (or Mahinmi I suppose) in a deal somewhere for a salary dump if they in fact need to do so......there will be many teams with leftover cap space and no one to spend it on when this free agency merry go round ends, and I assume Indiana has those deals or something similar lined up and ready if need be.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Let's talk Luis Scola for a minute.
I know many of you are speculating that he will be gone almost assuredly now, with us signing or being interested in a couple of smaller free agents and with our offer to Lance Stephenson coming in a bit higher than expected (though not by much).
I am not sure I agree with that sentiment. I still believe that for 2.9 million (which is the difference between the 1.9 million we owe him no matter what we do and the 4.8 million that his total contract is for if we keep him) is small enough that Bird will believe that is a bargain.
Plus, I think Indiana truly values his maturity and his overall game....and he could be a nice mentor now for Damjan Rudez. I think Scola still remains with Indiana, unless................
What if Scola was a hidden chemistry issue?
Hear me out: What if Scola was frustrated with coming off the bench, playing less minutes than he ever had before, and playing a more limited and different offensive role than he ever had before? What if he was unhappy about the different lifestyle in Indianapolis, and the relatively low IQ teammates he played with on Indiana's 2nd unit? What if he constantly spent time in the locker room bickering about such things?
What if Scola making millions more than Stephenson rankled Lance enough that he complained in the locker room about that, and what if some of the veteran guys defended Scola in the bickering? Couldn't that be one of the small things that eroded away at Indiana's chemistry a year ago?
I am not saying any of that is true at all, I am just saying that it is possible. I remain convinced (mostly) that Indiana didn't have any one MAJOR chemistry issue last year, instead they just had several smaller ones that festered as the season went on.
And what would Indiana do if Scola privately went to Larry Bird and asked him to NOT bring him back next year? Would Bird tell him to suck it up and play because we need him (In Bird's mind)? Or would Bird just tell him ok, and quietly let him go?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Finally, thoughts on Damjan Rudez.
I have not scouted him intensely yet, but after he was mentioned by the media a few weeks ago as working out for NBA teams (with Indiana being prominently mentioned back then), I did gather some material and study him some.
Rudez may be 6'10, but he is a 3 man, no question about it. He is only 210lbs at best and he plays very softly and weakly.....he lacks strength big time. He is a perimeter player only, which to me means he doesn't really effect any decision on Scola whatsoever.
He has great shooting form, and a very high and quick release. His shot isn't totally text book but it is close, and he will not have any trouble getting it off if he can get open.
He is also a pretty good passer, and for someone 6'10 he can handle the ball well. He is creative, smart offensive, sees the floor, and understands how to play offense.
But I have no clue who he can guard. He has to guard perimeter guys, because he is so weak strength wise. But he is slow and gangly, and gets his feet crossed up some in his slide. He has shorter arms than you'd think and he doesn't jump well quickly....he is a below the rim below average athlete for a NBA wing.
He also might be the worst rebounder I have ever seen. He can't react to the ball, can't block out due to the lack of strength, and quite frankly he is more interested in leaking out and trying to get in position for a transition 3 pointer. He averaged less than 2 rebounds a game, and that was playing against more unathletic guys than he will see in the NBA.
Rudez is a project, except that at his age he can't BE a project. But at best he is a guy who this particular year will just have to develop in practice and in the D league, because I don't see how he can see the floor other than in garbage time. Maybe in 2015/2016 or beyond that, after a year of getting used to the NBA game, he can bring something to the table, but for next year I just don't see it at this point. Don't in your mind be banking on him for any credible role next year.
Think of a destitute man's version of Mike Dunleavy when you compare him to someone.
This time until next time......
Tbird
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