On the Sunday before the 2014 NBA draft, today we examine the pros and cons of taking guard Nick Johnson from Arizona. This is the 6th in this years series of profiles, you can examine the previous players scouted at this link:
http://www.pacersdigest.com/showthre...-2014-Pointers
Johnson is the reigning 2014 PAC-12 player of the year, scoring 16ppg for the highly ranked Arizona Wildcats. If not for a horrendous offensive foul call in the NCAA tournament against Johnson on their last possession, the Wildcats may very well have made it to the Final four.
In addition to being named the best player in the PAC-12, Johnson also made their first team all defensive team, which was very well deserved. Johnson is undersized for a 2 guard at just 6'3, however his extreme athleticism and solid 6'7 1/4 wingspan somewhat mitigate that, as does his solid 200lb strong body. Johnson has been well coached by Sean Miller and has been brought up around the game at a young age.....his father was a playground basketball legend with (supposedly) a 52 inch vertical and his uncle was Hall of Famer (and ex Larry Bird teammate) Dennis Johnson.
Playing in big time environments will be nothing new for Johnson, as Arizona was a national power playing elite competition throughout his 3 years for the Wildcats. But how will his game translate to the next level? That is the question we try to answer today.
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Johnson is a NBA pro athlete, a world class leaper with good body control and explosive hops. He even gives you at 6'3 some element of rim protection, as he is one of the best fast break defenders in this draft, excelling at blocking shots from behind in trail situations or as a help defender. He isn't as athletic as Thanasis Antetokounmpo......but then again, few would be.
Defensively is where Johnson stands out to me as a pro prospect, because he is a 2 guard who I think can defend multiple positions, including point guards. I think he is even better at defending bigger wings, as he excels at contesting shots, keeping the dribble in front of him, and he is extremely good at sliding around screens and refusing to be cut off from his man. I believe he would be a guy who could defend bigger players like J.J. Redick or Bradley Beal, and yet have the quickness to guard the Teague type explosive point guards, at least better than anyone we currently have. He is quick in his slide, and he also seems to be very aware of the scouting report and overall team defensive structure.
He can be a plus perimeter defender of players his size and slightly bigger, I don't think there is any question about that. I don't think he is Tony Allen level because Allen can guard small forwards, and I think Johnson is too small for that, but if you want a guy who can guard opponents point guards or shooting guards for stretches off your bench Johnson can do that. That type of defensive flexibility is handy when trying to form lineups and put a roster together of complimentary pieces.
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Johnson is described by almost everyone as a "combination" guard, and to me that means that he can play spot minutes at the point guard offensively for you. I DISAGREE with that notion though, as I believe Johnson is a small 2 guard who can defend 1's, but cannot be your point guard/best ballhander/distributor type.....you'll have to play a point guard with him, or at least someone who handles the ball and starts your offense for you.
Johnson may have been the only 6'3 guy who played the bottom of the floor against zones, and who routinely got lob plays called for him. Johnson is a slam dunk machine who has big value in a more up tempo, open court game offensively. Currently that isn't our style of play, but I don't think in the 2nd round #57 you can be as choosy about that as you might be earlier....at this point, you just need guys who can play and have talent enough to stick.
As a wing type offensive guy, Johnson has some strengths and some weaknesses.
As a catch and shoot guy, he has pretty good history. If he is spotting up for you, his results tell you that he is a pretty good shooter. However I don't love his shooting form from his lower body, and I do question whether his marksmanship will continue at the high level it was at Arizona. For the Wildcats, he shot a robust 38% from deep....yet because I think he relies on his legs more than most, and because he is a guy who shoots straight up and down on his jumper, which new school thinking on shooting isn't in favor of. I worry about his shooting numbers over an 82 game season and as he ages.
He is reasonably good coming off a ballscreen, but I doubt he would be so good at it that it will be a big weapon at the NBA level. He is much more of a scorer in these situations, and seems to lack the wherewithal and creativity to make the difficult pocket passes or more sophisticated reads than NBA guards coming off a ballscreen would need to make.
Off the dribble, I think he has some potential as an iso type point guard who can get his own shot off....this is where his top notch leaping ability and good first step can translate, as he can gain an advantage on some defenders and simply shoot over some others who are somewhat similarly sized as he is. He needs to really drastically improve his stop and pop shooting form though, because at this point he is inaccurate shooting off the bounce. He will need to really learn I think to "pound" the ball on his last dribble, so he can get more spring and rhythm into his pull up jumper. I do think that can be coached up, so I expect that to improve somewhat....but how much will it improve? I am not sure.
His major strengths offensively going forward I think are:
1. As a transition guy. He runs the floor like a deer, can push it himself if he gets opportunities, and can get to the rim in transition and finish thru contact. The more up tempo the game is, the better it is for him.
2. He runs plays well. In the complicated NBA world, if he gets to a team with a hugely thick playbook such as Minnesota or Dallas or Chicago, I think he is experienced and intellectual enough to understand a system and run plays correctly. He didn't look all that good to me when Arizona ran it's motion based "Chin" offense, but when they ran memorized sets and specials I think he was better. He won't break plays or mess things up often.
3. He feeds the post well. Johnson gets low with the ball, patiently waits on bigs to get position, and then feeds into them consistently, on time and to the proper hand. Feeding the post is a lost art at all levels of basketball, especially at times for our own Indiana Pacers.
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So what do we have in Nick Johnson?
I think we have a player with a good pedigree and resume of success who is a high character kid. But we also have a very small shooting guard who may be stuck in between positions, and who's style of play may not exactly fit our current method of operation.
I think he likely fits better in Phoenix or Philadelphia.....and one of those is where I think he may end up. Phoenix at pick #50 seems like a good spot to put him.
BUT.....if he is there at #57, and we haven't moved up at all, and he is available.....he wouldn't be a bad selection at all. I would expect in that case though for Indiana to pick a player with a more clear cut position or perhaps take a player they can stash overseas, but you never know. We know Indiana seems to like Arizona players, having seen them reach perhaps a year ago for Solomon Hill. With that connection and with the kid's family being so deeply connected to Larry Bird, I'd say he has much of a chance to be our pick as anyone else. I do expect almost 100% that Indiana will take someone at #57 they've worked out.....but we don't know how many of these guys that Indiana has looked at in private, though we do know that he isn't listed as one of their public workout guys yet.
We shall find out soon, I suppose.
This time until next time......
Tbird
http://www.pacersdigest.com/showthre...-2014-Pointers
Johnson is the reigning 2014 PAC-12 player of the year, scoring 16ppg for the highly ranked Arizona Wildcats. If not for a horrendous offensive foul call in the NCAA tournament against Johnson on their last possession, the Wildcats may very well have made it to the Final four.
In addition to being named the best player in the PAC-12, Johnson also made their first team all defensive team, which was very well deserved. Johnson is undersized for a 2 guard at just 6'3, however his extreme athleticism and solid 6'7 1/4 wingspan somewhat mitigate that, as does his solid 200lb strong body. Johnson has been well coached by Sean Miller and has been brought up around the game at a young age.....his father was a playground basketball legend with (supposedly) a 52 inch vertical and his uncle was Hall of Famer (and ex Larry Bird teammate) Dennis Johnson.
Playing in big time environments will be nothing new for Johnson, as Arizona was a national power playing elite competition throughout his 3 years for the Wildcats. But how will his game translate to the next level? That is the question we try to answer today.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Johnson is a NBA pro athlete, a world class leaper with good body control and explosive hops. He even gives you at 6'3 some element of rim protection, as he is one of the best fast break defenders in this draft, excelling at blocking shots from behind in trail situations or as a help defender. He isn't as athletic as Thanasis Antetokounmpo......but then again, few would be.
Defensively is where Johnson stands out to me as a pro prospect, because he is a 2 guard who I think can defend multiple positions, including point guards. I think he is even better at defending bigger wings, as he excels at contesting shots, keeping the dribble in front of him, and he is extremely good at sliding around screens and refusing to be cut off from his man. I believe he would be a guy who could defend bigger players like J.J. Redick or Bradley Beal, and yet have the quickness to guard the Teague type explosive point guards, at least better than anyone we currently have. He is quick in his slide, and he also seems to be very aware of the scouting report and overall team defensive structure.
He can be a plus perimeter defender of players his size and slightly bigger, I don't think there is any question about that. I don't think he is Tony Allen level because Allen can guard small forwards, and I think Johnson is too small for that, but if you want a guy who can guard opponents point guards or shooting guards for stretches off your bench Johnson can do that. That type of defensive flexibility is handy when trying to form lineups and put a roster together of complimentary pieces.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Johnson is described by almost everyone as a "combination" guard, and to me that means that he can play spot minutes at the point guard offensively for you. I DISAGREE with that notion though, as I believe Johnson is a small 2 guard who can defend 1's, but cannot be your point guard/best ballhander/distributor type.....you'll have to play a point guard with him, or at least someone who handles the ball and starts your offense for you.
Johnson may have been the only 6'3 guy who played the bottom of the floor against zones, and who routinely got lob plays called for him. Johnson is a slam dunk machine who has big value in a more up tempo, open court game offensively. Currently that isn't our style of play, but I don't think in the 2nd round #57 you can be as choosy about that as you might be earlier....at this point, you just need guys who can play and have talent enough to stick.
As a wing type offensive guy, Johnson has some strengths and some weaknesses.
As a catch and shoot guy, he has pretty good history. If he is spotting up for you, his results tell you that he is a pretty good shooter. However I don't love his shooting form from his lower body, and I do question whether his marksmanship will continue at the high level it was at Arizona. For the Wildcats, he shot a robust 38% from deep....yet because I think he relies on his legs more than most, and because he is a guy who shoots straight up and down on his jumper, which new school thinking on shooting isn't in favor of. I worry about his shooting numbers over an 82 game season and as he ages.
He is reasonably good coming off a ballscreen, but I doubt he would be so good at it that it will be a big weapon at the NBA level. He is much more of a scorer in these situations, and seems to lack the wherewithal and creativity to make the difficult pocket passes or more sophisticated reads than NBA guards coming off a ballscreen would need to make.
Off the dribble, I think he has some potential as an iso type point guard who can get his own shot off....this is where his top notch leaping ability and good first step can translate, as he can gain an advantage on some defenders and simply shoot over some others who are somewhat similarly sized as he is. He needs to really drastically improve his stop and pop shooting form though, because at this point he is inaccurate shooting off the bounce. He will need to really learn I think to "pound" the ball on his last dribble, so he can get more spring and rhythm into his pull up jumper. I do think that can be coached up, so I expect that to improve somewhat....but how much will it improve? I am not sure.
His major strengths offensively going forward I think are:
1. As a transition guy. He runs the floor like a deer, can push it himself if he gets opportunities, and can get to the rim in transition and finish thru contact. The more up tempo the game is, the better it is for him.
2. He runs plays well. In the complicated NBA world, if he gets to a team with a hugely thick playbook such as Minnesota or Dallas or Chicago, I think he is experienced and intellectual enough to understand a system and run plays correctly. He didn't look all that good to me when Arizona ran it's motion based "Chin" offense, but when they ran memorized sets and specials I think he was better. He won't break plays or mess things up often.
3. He feeds the post well. Johnson gets low with the ball, patiently waits on bigs to get position, and then feeds into them consistently, on time and to the proper hand. Feeding the post is a lost art at all levels of basketball, especially at times for our own Indiana Pacers.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So what do we have in Nick Johnson?
I think we have a player with a good pedigree and resume of success who is a high character kid. But we also have a very small shooting guard who may be stuck in between positions, and who's style of play may not exactly fit our current method of operation.
I think he likely fits better in Phoenix or Philadelphia.....and one of those is where I think he may end up. Phoenix at pick #50 seems like a good spot to put him.
BUT.....if he is there at #57, and we haven't moved up at all, and he is available.....he wouldn't be a bad selection at all. I would expect in that case though for Indiana to pick a player with a more clear cut position or perhaps take a player they can stash overseas, but you never know. We know Indiana seems to like Arizona players, having seen them reach perhaps a year ago for Solomon Hill. With that connection and with the kid's family being so deeply connected to Larry Bird, I'd say he has much of a chance to be our pick as anyone else. I do expect almost 100% that Indiana will take someone at #57 they've worked out.....but we don't know how many of these guys that Indiana has looked at in private, though we do know that he isn't listed as one of their public workout guys yet.
We shall find out soon, I suppose.
This time until next time......
Tbird
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