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A late start for this year's draft articles as we begin this year on Saturday June 14, just about a week and a half from draft night 2014. With the Pacers not scheduled until pick #57 this year, my focus will be multi-pronged. First, I'll try and pick out players who I think might make the league at all, who will be picked at or around #57 that I like for Indiana. Secondly, I'll identify guys who might be worth making a small trade up into the earlier stages of round 2 for, and then lastly I'll try and see if there is anyone worth trading for that would likely be available in the mid teens or so, in the unlikely event that Indiana chooses to trade a starter for a pick in that range.
Trying to scout players more in this range is not nearly as fun as scouting first round talent, because of the sheer volume of players to try and focus on and because these type of guys have such a high failure rate. And as always, I will not be reviewing any foreign players from overseas due to my own lack of familiarity and tape available of those types of players.....and I say that even though I think the most likely scenario for Indiana to actually execute is to take a "draft and stash" type of player.
Having said all of that, I'll only be writing about players who I think have a legitimate shot of both being selected by Indiana and who actually can make our team.....that narrows the pool a ton, I can promise you.
So without further ado, let us take a look at this year's first prospect to under the microscope, Louisville point guard Russ Smith.
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Smith was a national championship level player for Rick Pitino's Louisville Cardinals, playing in big games and making multiple deep runs in the NCAA tournament in his years in college, winning the national championship 2 years ago. Born April 19, 1991, Smith turned 23 years old last spring, making him a somewhat older prospect to evaluate. A Brooklyn native, Smith often displays that typical New York swagger and bravado during games, which is both a strength and a weakness for him.
Smith measures in at 6'1 in shoes, with a 6'3 1/2 wingspan, putting him on the smaller side of what a typical NBA point guard would be at. More concerning though is his extremely thin build, as Smith weighs in at right around 160lbs. Whoever drafts Smith will have some major work to do in building up his overall strength and bulk with a solid diet and weight plan to make him a playable commodity with an NBA long term future. But if Smith does manage to add bulk and strength while maintaining his very high level of athleticism and quickness, then I do believe he has the talent and "mojo" to be an effective NBA player.
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Smith managed to average 19.3 ppg for the highly ranked Cardinals last season, which put him among the highest scoring point guards in the country. "Point guard" is really a misnomer for Smith at this point, because his compass is aimed directly 10 feet high at the rim, instead of trying to play a more traditional point guard role. Smith is a high usage scorer who really just passes in 9-1-1 situations, at least at this point in his career. Smith is able to hang in the air for a long time, and twist his body and torso to get up (and often make) tough off balance shots. Much of his shot selection in college was cringeworthy for an old school coach, and in fact Rick Pitino coined the phrase "Russdiculous" to describe his young guard.
I rated Smith as actually a very very good jump shooter form wise, as even though he only shot 33.3% from deep, that is mainly because he took so many horrible guarded shots. In a much more limited role at the NBA level, playing in a more controlled way I think he can eventually be a 40% 3point shooter on open spot up situations. Smith is particularly good at shooting the corner 3 in my opinion, as he seems to have been taught well how to slide into the vision of his teammates into those areas of the floor. While I do not have stats to back up that assertion, you can believe that the NBA analytic departments do.
In transition offense is where Smith stands out the most as an offensive weapon. He is both a blur with the ball from an athletic standpoint, but he is also very efficient with the ball. On tape, what stands out to me the most is how far he pushes the ball ahead of himself with the dribble.....he covers a HUGE amount of terrain with the minimum amount of bounces. He has good wiggle to his dribble, and has all of the prerequisite moves, and his "in and out" dribble (or fake crossover if you like that term better) is a major weapon for him already. Any outlet to Smith has the potential for a quick offensive chance to score in transition or in early offense.
Of course, the reason Smith isn't a first round pick is the fact that he sometimes plays with the court vision of Helen Keller. Smith is a tunnel vision point guard who drives to score, not to draw the defense. Now, being a smart kid like I believe him to be, I do believe that at the NBA level he will moderate that style somewhat against the superior athletes in the pro game....but there will be a learning curve. Why I think Smith has a chance is that I do believe that, if he improves his vision and willingness to find others instead of keeping the ball, that he has the prerequisite quickness and ability to pass from a physical standpoint.....in other words, he is GOOD enough to do it, but WILL he do it, that is the question.
Like many young guards he gets into the air too often with no real plan (except to shoot in his case), which causes him to turn the ball over too much. His assist to TO ratio in college was even, but I do believe he has a chance to improve that in the NBA playing in a less demanding role and with some coaching and maturity.
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I like how Smith can use his off hand, both to pass and to finish his own play. While he often puts himself in bad spots with unwise moves into crowds, he can bail himself out by being able to use his left hand to finish over size or to make difficult passes in crowds. Because he is small and rail thin, he has to avoid contact when he can by contorting himself around the defense, lacking the size to score THROUGH contact. There will be very few "and 1's" in Smith's future. Bigger guys around the rim can just engulf him and swallow him whole. What he will need to do is to first gain major strength so he can score even while being jostled, then because he can score, people will naturally have to help, and at that point he will need to learn to pass instead of taking tough shots.
Smith, as I mentioned earlier, has really good form on his jump shots MOST of the time. As long as he only takes open shots with a lot of room to get his shot off, I think that will be a weapon for him. He has a nice and tight high release on his jumper, though he takes a bit long to load up on a longer set shot off a spot up. I love his balance when he takes open 1 and 2 dribble pull ups, and he brings the ball up through the window with good timing and rhythm.
Now like many smaller and "weaker" players from a strength standpoint, when he is fatigued his mechanics can go astray. When he loses his legs he will "push" the ball instead of shoot it, not hold his follow through, and kind of thumb the ball at the target, giving it a screwball type of effect. When Smith misses, he often misses badly, which makes people think he is a worse shooter that he actually is. That, and the lack of size to shoot over a good "contest" lower his percentages. It is crucial for his long term potential that Smith learns what a good shot is, and what one isn't.
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Defensively, Smith has some potential to guard a specific type of opponent, i.e. one with extreme quickness and/or one who might struggle with full court extreme ball pressure.
Smith has very quick feet, stays in a stance well when he is on the ball, uses his hands well, and seems to really ENJOY picking people up and getting in their grill. He is a pesky defender in the open court, capable of getting on the ball steals or at least occupying time on the shot clock and wearing an opponent down over time.
Of course, his quickness can only make up for his lack of strength and size so much. He fights hard to get over ball screens, and he is so slinky and quick than he can be tough to screen....but still, his lack of strength in getting over NBA players ballscreens is going to be an issue....size can engulf him. On the other hand, if you can place him to match him up with an opponent who isn't a big threat to COME OFF a ball screen, then you can mitigate that to some degree.
I think he projects as a pesky defensive option for 10-15 minutes a night maximum, anything more than and he will likely get exposed. He will work hard for you defensively and be "defensively consistent", which is helpful to a coaching staff. His level of quickness can't be taught, and he plays hard.....he will just be limited, and will be somewhat matchup dependent.
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So what do we have in this confident and brash young guard?
At pick #57, you are looking for someone who can make your team and perhaps give it something that it doesn't currently have....or have the pick give you something your team has for a cheaper price. Can Smith do that for Indiana?
Yes, I think he can.
As a 3rd point guard I think he makes some sense for us. High character guy, very quick, well taught, and a better shooter than advertised. He would be a defensive option perhaps against a Teague or a Wall perhaps in short stints, which we currently don't have. And what shortcomings he has, I think his confidence and swagger can mitigate that to some degree.
If he is your true backup point guard (which is his ceiling, in time) then you'll have good night and bad nights with him depending on the matchups and the particular system you are using, and depending of course on who is on the team with him. As a 3rd point guard who you can only play in certain spots and matchups, I think he can be ok.
At #57, if I am Indiana, I think Smith is good enough to take Donald Sloan's place on our roster. If that is the choice they make on draft night, it would not be anything to be excited about, but it would be a solid choice. Smith's long term value depends somewhat on how much strength he can put on and how frequent his offensive explosions can be. At his peak, I think he might be a guy who can explode off the bench for you and score points in bunches, about once every week or 2 weeks or so.
Do I think he is good enough to trade up for from #57? No, I don't.....but I wouldn't be upset if we stand pat and take him, as he would be a solid choice.
Going forward in this series, I'll continue to look for guys who have value, and maybe find some guys who might make more of a real difference than a 3rd point guard could.
NBA comparable: Jose Barea (if he maxes out)
As always, the above is just my opinion.
Tbird
Trying to scout players more in this range is not nearly as fun as scouting first round talent, because of the sheer volume of players to try and focus on and because these type of guys have such a high failure rate. And as always, I will not be reviewing any foreign players from overseas due to my own lack of familiarity and tape available of those types of players.....and I say that even though I think the most likely scenario for Indiana to actually execute is to take a "draft and stash" type of player.
Having said all of that, I'll only be writing about players who I think have a legitimate shot of both being selected by Indiana and who actually can make our team.....that narrows the pool a ton, I can promise you.
So without further ado, let us take a look at this year's first prospect to under the microscope, Louisville point guard Russ Smith.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Smith was a national championship level player for Rick Pitino's Louisville Cardinals, playing in big games and making multiple deep runs in the NCAA tournament in his years in college, winning the national championship 2 years ago. Born April 19, 1991, Smith turned 23 years old last spring, making him a somewhat older prospect to evaluate. A Brooklyn native, Smith often displays that typical New York swagger and bravado during games, which is both a strength and a weakness for him.
Smith measures in at 6'1 in shoes, with a 6'3 1/2 wingspan, putting him on the smaller side of what a typical NBA point guard would be at. More concerning though is his extremely thin build, as Smith weighs in at right around 160lbs. Whoever drafts Smith will have some major work to do in building up his overall strength and bulk with a solid diet and weight plan to make him a playable commodity with an NBA long term future. But if Smith does manage to add bulk and strength while maintaining his very high level of athleticism and quickness, then I do believe he has the talent and "mojo" to be an effective NBA player.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Smith managed to average 19.3 ppg for the highly ranked Cardinals last season, which put him among the highest scoring point guards in the country. "Point guard" is really a misnomer for Smith at this point, because his compass is aimed directly 10 feet high at the rim, instead of trying to play a more traditional point guard role. Smith is a high usage scorer who really just passes in 9-1-1 situations, at least at this point in his career. Smith is able to hang in the air for a long time, and twist his body and torso to get up (and often make) tough off balance shots. Much of his shot selection in college was cringeworthy for an old school coach, and in fact Rick Pitino coined the phrase "Russdiculous" to describe his young guard.
I rated Smith as actually a very very good jump shooter form wise, as even though he only shot 33.3% from deep, that is mainly because he took so many horrible guarded shots. In a much more limited role at the NBA level, playing in a more controlled way I think he can eventually be a 40% 3point shooter on open spot up situations. Smith is particularly good at shooting the corner 3 in my opinion, as he seems to have been taught well how to slide into the vision of his teammates into those areas of the floor. While I do not have stats to back up that assertion, you can believe that the NBA analytic departments do.
In transition offense is where Smith stands out the most as an offensive weapon. He is both a blur with the ball from an athletic standpoint, but he is also very efficient with the ball. On tape, what stands out to me the most is how far he pushes the ball ahead of himself with the dribble.....he covers a HUGE amount of terrain with the minimum amount of bounces. He has good wiggle to his dribble, and has all of the prerequisite moves, and his "in and out" dribble (or fake crossover if you like that term better) is a major weapon for him already. Any outlet to Smith has the potential for a quick offensive chance to score in transition or in early offense.
Of course, the reason Smith isn't a first round pick is the fact that he sometimes plays with the court vision of Helen Keller. Smith is a tunnel vision point guard who drives to score, not to draw the defense. Now, being a smart kid like I believe him to be, I do believe that at the NBA level he will moderate that style somewhat against the superior athletes in the pro game....but there will be a learning curve. Why I think Smith has a chance is that I do believe that, if he improves his vision and willingness to find others instead of keeping the ball, that he has the prerequisite quickness and ability to pass from a physical standpoint.....in other words, he is GOOD enough to do it, but WILL he do it, that is the question.
Like many young guards he gets into the air too often with no real plan (except to shoot in his case), which causes him to turn the ball over too much. His assist to TO ratio in college was even, but I do believe he has a chance to improve that in the NBA playing in a less demanding role and with some coaching and maturity.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I like how Smith can use his off hand, both to pass and to finish his own play. While he often puts himself in bad spots with unwise moves into crowds, he can bail himself out by being able to use his left hand to finish over size or to make difficult passes in crowds. Because he is small and rail thin, he has to avoid contact when he can by contorting himself around the defense, lacking the size to score THROUGH contact. There will be very few "and 1's" in Smith's future. Bigger guys around the rim can just engulf him and swallow him whole. What he will need to do is to first gain major strength so he can score even while being jostled, then because he can score, people will naturally have to help, and at that point he will need to learn to pass instead of taking tough shots.
Smith, as I mentioned earlier, has really good form on his jump shots MOST of the time. As long as he only takes open shots with a lot of room to get his shot off, I think that will be a weapon for him. He has a nice and tight high release on his jumper, though he takes a bit long to load up on a longer set shot off a spot up. I love his balance when he takes open 1 and 2 dribble pull ups, and he brings the ball up through the window with good timing and rhythm.
Now like many smaller and "weaker" players from a strength standpoint, when he is fatigued his mechanics can go astray. When he loses his legs he will "push" the ball instead of shoot it, not hold his follow through, and kind of thumb the ball at the target, giving it a screwball type of effect. When Smith misses, he often misses badly, which makes people think he is a worse shooter that he actually is. That, and the lack of size to shoot over a good "contest" lower his percentages. It is crucial for his long term potential that Smith learns what a good shot is, and what one isn't.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensively, Smith has some potential to guard a specific type of opponent, i.e. one with extreme quickness and/or one who might struggle with full court extreme ball pressure.
Smith has very quick feet, stays in a stance well when he is on the ball, uses his hands well, and seems to really ENJOY picking people up and getting in their grill. He is a pesky defender in the open court, capable of getting on the ball steals or at least occupying time on the shot clock and wearing an opponent down over time.
Of course, his quickness can only make up for his lack of strength and size so much. He fights hard to get over ball screens, and he is so slinky and quick than he can be tough to screen....but still, his lack of strength in getting over NBA players ballscreens is going to be an issue....size can engulf him. On the other hand, if you can place him to match him up with an opponent who isn't a big threat to COME OFF a ball screen, then you can mitigate that to some degree.
I think he projects as a pesky defensive option for 10-15 minutes a night maximum, anything more than and he will likely get exposed. He will work hard for you defensively and be "defensively consistent", which is helpful to a coaching staff. His level of quickness can't be taught, and he plays hard.....he will just be limited, and will be somewhat matchup dependent.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So what do we have in this confident and brash young guard?
At pick #57, you are looking for someone who can make your team and perhaps give it something that it doesn't currently have....or have the pick give you something your team has for a cheaper price. Can Smith do that for Indiana?
Yes, I think he can.
As a 3rd point guard I think he makes some sense for us. High character guy, very quick, well taught, and a better shooter than advertised. He would be a defensive option perhaps against a Teague or a Wall perhaps in short stints, which we currently don't have. And what shortcomings he has, I think his confidence and swagger can mitigate that to some degree.
If he is your true backup point guard (which is his ceiling, in time) then you'll have good night and bad nights with him depending on the matchups and the particular system you are using, and depending of course on who is on the team with him. As a 3rd point guard who you can only play in certain spots and matchups, I think he can be ok.
At #57, if I am Indiana, I think Smith is good enough to take Donald Sloan's place on our roster. If that is the choice they make on draft night, it would not be anything to be excited about, but it would be a solid choice. Smith's long term value depends somewhat on how much strength he can put on and how frequent his offensive explosions can be. At his peak, I think he might be a guy who can explode off the bench for you and score points in bunches, about once every week or 2 weeks or so.
Do I think he is good enough to trade up for from #57? No, I don't.....but I wouldn't be upset if we stand pat and take him, as he would be a solid choice.
Going forward in this series, I'll continue to look for guys who have value, and maybe find some guys who might make more of a real difference than a 3rd point guard could.
NBA comparable: Jose Barea (if he maxes out)
As always, the above is just my opinion.
Tbird
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