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Thread: Odd Thoughts: Dog Days, solutions and resurrections..

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    Administrator Peck's Avatar
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    Default Odd Thoughts: Dog Days, solutions and resurrections..

    “Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple.” Dr. Seuss

    We are in a funk, we now have some obvious tension in the locker room and the confidence bordering on arrogance demonstrated by the local fan base has now been shaken, but not necessarily stirred.
    In the Roy Hibbert thread I made my disappointment known for how Roy has chosen to handle this so I won’t continue beating that drum here.

    I had an Odd Thoughts in the can after the Knicks loss but decided that for my first one back in awhile that it was way to negative and so even though it was a long one (yea even for me) I just deleted it late this evening.

    Today with the Bulls coming to town I want to look at what some of the root causes are and see if we can’t alleviate some of our anxiety as we end the season and look to the playoffs.

    First though I want to make this statement, I thought N.Y. would beat us prior to the game. In fact I’m somewhat surprised we narrowed the gap as much as we did. Also and I’m not saying this just to be an alarmist, but I believe the likelihood is that the Bulls will pummel us tonight. Their defense is fierce and it will exacerbate every single offensive flaw we have. Now I’m not guaranteeing a loss but I will actually be surprised if we pull this one off. However follow me till the end of this portion of my post and you will see why I am not going to freak out if this occurs.

    I’m just going to go ahead and mess with Uncle Bucks mind here and now, I think our defense though lapsing at times and not nearly as potent as it once was is still good enough to win most games.

    Even against good teams.

    Our offense though is just abysmal. I don’t have fancy graphs or advanced analytics to back me up but I can just tell you that since about the beginning of the New Year our offense has gone in the tank.

    We have people, including our center, who place a lot of the blame at the feet of Lance because sometimes when he gets the ball he holds onto it for way to long.

    We have others who will blame our lack of point guard and George Hill’s aggressiveness from game to game ranging between Stannis Baratheon to Lord Varys.

    Even others will point to our centers inability to hold position against players half his size or the ability to catch anything other than an entry lob pass.

    Some will go after our superstar player for his inability to shoot with even the slightest decent % over the past few months and his new found role as floor Barrister in arguing with the referee’s after almost every play.

    If you are brave enough you might even cast a mild statement of doubt towards David West. But if his badness doesn’t make you hesitate his biggest fan in the world Quinn Buckner might tackle you. If you’ve ever listened to Quinn you will know that David has never done anything wrong, ever.

    Again going back to Dr. Seuss the answers really aren’t that complicated. The solutions to the problems might be, but the simplest answer in the world is how our offense gets slowed to an absolute grinding halt on a nightly basis.

    Watch teams defend us to start games. They simply pack the paint and dare us to hit any form of shot outside of 15’. You’ll notice they don’t really blitz our pick and rolls very often because they know our ball handlers are not going to pull up for a mid range shot and stick it. They may try but the likely hood of anyone on our team hitting a shot outside of the paint is tenuous at best.
    What does this lead to? Simple this means that we have pretty much three options on a play. We either bring the ball up court swing it from side to side praying that the defense switches and draws out a defender leading to either Lance or Paul sashaying to the basket or someone on our team pulling up and shooting a three pointer that more likely than not will not go in. Or we come up court and try and make an entry pass to Roy or David and pray they catch it without the ball being turned over and then can get up a shot while being double teamed. Or we run a high pick and roll with West hopefully finding a cutter or some miracle occurs and his mid range shot falls.

    Sure there are million other variations that can occur here but these are the three most common themes I’ve seen. I dropped mysynergy this year so I’m just going on what I have seen and remember.

    Now our highest success generally is when we do move the ball around and that it never stays with one person for any real length of time. However there is not a single starter who isn’t guilty of pounding the rock to much on occasion. Yes Lance is guilty of it as well and he probably is the biggest offender but let me assure you that Paul George can do it and for that matter so can Roy.
    However the single biggest culprit in all of this is our inability to stick a jump shot on a consistent basis. Remember in the beginning of the year when Luis Scola took that 12-15’ jumper you were certain that it would drop? Or how about when Paul George just pulled up in the mid range from anywhere, weren’t you positive that this was a money shot? Do you still fill that way today? David West has even been missing wide open bunnies under the basket lately.

    It’s so bad that I would give a max contract right now to Kyle Korver and I hate everything about his game.

    How do you fix shooting? That is an age old question that I’m not 100% sure how to do.
    In some ways we are just going to have to do what I freely admit for me is one of the hardest things in the world to do. Have faith.

    Paul hit those shots before so there is no reason why he can’t hit them again. Luis was automatic before, I know of no physical reason why he can’t be again.

    We really truly need C.J. Watson back because he was the one guard who could hit a shot on a consistent basis.

    So between the dog days of the NBA, a massive shooting slump and some internal finger pointing it would look like we were lottery bound all season and not the # 1 seed in the NBA for most of the year.

    But fortunes can change and shift back to the positive as fast as they have fallen by the wayside.

    This is why tonight I am not going to go nuclear if we lose. Now don’t get me wrong if we don’t even compete I’ll let them have it and even if we do compete and lose I’ll still point out issues that I see. But my thoughts coming into this week were as follows. We would lose to the Knicks, we would get smashed by the Bulls and we will struggle vs. the Grizzlies.

    By then the coaching staff is going to have to step in and light a fire under them. This is where Frank will either earn his money or well this might be the first real chink exposed in his armor. My bet is on Frank.

    The team will be up for the Heat and there the season will either turn back to what it once was or well we are looking at a collapse that will shake our fan base to the very core.

    The talent is still there. The system needs tweaking but at the end of the day and this is once again the simplest answer in the world but there is no better answer. Our players have got to start hitting their shots on a more consistent basis.

    Okay now that I have this portion of the thread done I am now going to move into another topic that is not basketball related however it is Digest related.

    This was really not one of my better posts I’ve written and actually I’m okay with that because I did not want my first one back to be filled with my stinging rebukes of another loss to the Knicks or Bulls.

    The reason for that is because it is my official announcement that I am back. You will notice my name is once again highlighted in blue. I want to thank everyone who sent me p.m.’s checking on my well being or encouraging me to post more often. Circumstances have changed and I intend on ending the season and hitting the playoffs with the energy of 10 Grinch’s. We will be having some new announcements coming your way in the future but for now it’s safe to say I’m home and in the immortal words of Lt. Comd. Tom Dodge “let’s kick this pig”.

    Also there has not been nearly enough Van Halen in your lives since I have been gone.

    Last edited by Peck; 03-21-2014 at 03:52 AM.


    Basketball isn't played with computers, spreadsheets, and simulations. ChicagoJ 4/21/13

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  3. #2
    All Hail CJ Watson! Nuntius's Avatar
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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Dog Days, solutions and resurrections..

    Welcome back, Peck. The good times will start again
    Tonight, all flags must burn, in place of steeples.
    Autonomy must return into the hands of the people.

    Panopticon

    -------------

    CJ Watson - 20 points on 6/10 shooting!

    13/4/2014

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    Formerly PacerFanInAZ Cactus Jax's Avatar
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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Dog Days, solutions and resurrections..

    I'll give a stat...in the first 30 games (up until the new year), the lowest the Pacers scored in a game was 89 points in a win against the Cavs.

    The Pacers have scored under 89 points nine times since then in 38 games.

    I actually was expecting the number to be higher than 9 when I was tallying it up, so it's not all totally horrible.
    "It's just unfortunate that we've been penalized so much this year and nothing has happened to the Pistons, the Palace or the city of Detroit," he said. "It's almost like it's always our fault. The league knows it. They should be ashamed of themselves to let the security be as lax as it is around here."

    ----------------- Reggie Miller

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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Dog Days, solutions and resurrections..

    It is time to get back to "help the helper".

    The real heros are the ones that will help their teammates to succeed.

    Every single player must commit to having their teammate's backs, and once
    again become the predators, or else they will collectively become the prey.

    It is now time to do or die.



    PS: And welcome back oh mighty Peck!

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    Tyrant maragin's Avatar
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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Dog Days, solutions and resurrections..

    It's good to have you back. As I posted in the Roy thread today:

    Quote Originally Posted by maragin
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    Last Odd Thoughts: January 19 (when our record was 32-7)

    Win/Loss Since: 18-11
    I love this team. It's been hard as of late, but they are still the most formidable Pacers squad I've ever seen. They've got time to get their heads screwed on straight and iron out the wrinkles. I won't be really worried unless we look this sluggish against our first round opponent.

    Thanks for the Odd Thoughts.

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    Artificial Intelligence wintermute's Avatar
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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Dog Days, solutions and resurrections..

    Great to have you back, Peck. All's well that ends well.

    It feels odd a bit to me to reduce the whole slump to simply bad shooting. We haven't defended well recently (especially during the 4 game losing streak) but it's true that we seem to have cleaned things up on that end and certainly against the Knicks bad shooting was definitely a major factor.

    I tend more towards the "tired legs" theory, and especially so when it comes to Paul George. We've asked a lot out of him this year, on both ends, and I think he's just not adjusted to this level of workload yet. I don't think he really got rested on All-Star weekend either. Not really good news though because there aren't that many opportunities to rest until the playoffs.

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    Administrator Unclebuck's Avatar
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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Dog Days, solutions and resurrections..

    It is probably good we are playing the Bulls twice, Heat twice, Spurs and Thunder over the next few weeks. If that doesn't wake us up nothing will. Not suggesting the Bulls are as good as the other three teams, but the Bulls get our juices flowing just as much as any team except the Heat.

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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Dog Days, solutions and resurrections..

    Shots are being missed, because they're being forced, IMHO. I'm looking at you Paul George.

    It would be nice to see someone out on the perimeter drive the ball to the basket, kick the ball out for a open jumpshot, another quick line drive, or the catcher immediately throw another pass. The Pacers are thinking way too long about things. They receive a pass, hold on to it for a few seconds, then try to do something. It allows defensive rotations to get into position.

    It's Popovich's 0.5sec rule. They just need to react instinctively and just start playing.
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.” ― Ricky Gervais.

    What if someone from a school of business or management school were to ask, How did you do this? How did you get the Pacers turned around? Is there a general approach you've taken that can be summarized?

    Larry Bird: Yeah, patience.

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    Running with the Big Boys BillS's Avatar
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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Dog Days, solutions and resurrections..

    Quote Originally Posted by Peck View Post
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    Watch teams defend us to start games. They simply pack the paint and dare us to hit any form of shot outside of 15’. You’ll notice they don’t really blitz our pick and rolls very often because they know our ball handlers are not going to pull up for a mid range shot and stick it. They may try but the likely hood of anyone on our team hitting a shot outside of the paint is tenuous at best.
    What does this lead to? Simple this means that we have pretty much three options on a play. We either bring the ball up court swing it from side to side praying that the defense switches and draws out a defender leading to either Lance or Paul sashaying to the basket or someone on our team pulling up and shooting a three pointer that more likely than not will not go in. Or we come up court and try and make an entry pass to Roy or David and pray they catch it without the ball being turned over and then can get up a shot while being double teamed. Or we run a high pick and roll with West hopefully finding a cutter or some miracle occurs and his mid range shot falls.
    Yes, yes, yes.

    One of the reasons I wasn't completely appalled by the Knicks game was that Roy took it upon himself to come out and open passing lanes. Now, he was able to do this because he was on Cole Aldrich, where it would not have been as effective against Chandler (but that's not the same as totally stopped by Chandler ), but it was the first significant offensive change we've seen in a while because of one other important thing: Roy did not wait for the cutter to the baseline before taking action.

    Let me repeat that.

    ROY DID NOT WAIT FOR THE CUTTER.

    See, my frustration with Roy's slowness hit fruition about 3 years ago. I happened to be at a Billy Keller signing when I was grousing about it, and Billy told me that Roy waits because he is SUPPOSED to. The play is sort of a low post pick-and-pop, I guess, to try to either pull someone off the cutter and use Roy's passing ability or to let Roy take the shot while his defender is out of place. Whatever the reason, I think it stopped working about the 500th time it was tried and defenses realized all they have to do is leave the double on Roy and switch someone onto the cutter from behind.

    Roy's worst shooting position is the mid-post. It's because the type of shot he takes is most easily defended from there. That's why teams are so effective when they either completely deny him the ball and dare our shooters to take a jumper, or when they force him out into that mid-post area.

    So, if our shooters can't manage to start coming inside the perimeter and hitting some of those mid-range jumpers to open the floor a bit (or, perhaps more importantly, open a little more of a passing lane to Roy in the low post), do we need Roy more at the elbow? Maybe with West in the post for a rebound (though there go even more rebound numbers for Roy...)?
    BillS

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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Dog Days, solutions and resurrections..

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    Shots are being missed, because they're being forced, IMHO. I'm looking at you Paul George.

    It would be nice to see someone out on the perimeter drive the ball to the basket, kick the ball out for a open jumpshot, another quick line drive, or the catcher immediately throw another pass. The Pacers are thinking way too long about things. They receive a pass, hold on to it for a few seconds, then try to do something. It allows defensive rotations to get into position.

    It's Popovich's 0.5sec rule. They just need to react instinctively and just start playing.
    And this.

    When was the last time you saw a catch-and-shoot from the Pacers?

    I will say, though, that the "drive to the basket and kick it out for a bricked 3" is getting a little old. The kick-out needs to be for a higher percentage shot.
    BillS

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    Tree People to the Core! indygeezer's Avatar
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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Dog Days, solutions and resurrections..

    Welcome back Peck...Now I can stop worrying about you. Perhaps you brought some mojo with you???
    If you get to thinkin’ you’re a person of some influence, try orderin’ somebody else’s dog around..

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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Dog Days, solutions and resurrections..

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    It is probably good we are playing the Bulls twice, Heat twice, Spurs and Thunder over the next few weeks. If that doesn't wake us up nothing will. Not suggesting the Bulls are as good as the other three teams, but the Bulls get our juices flowing just as much as any team except the Heat.
    I am totally in agreement with this. This stretch sucks, but if we cannot get motivated for these big name teams then I will officially be worried.

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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Dog Days, solutions and resurrections..

    is tonight's game a "must win"?
    David "And One" West

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    Running with the Big Boys BillS's Avatar
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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Dog Days, solutions and resurrections..

    Quote Originally Posted by Pacergeek View Post
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    is tonight's game a "must win"?
    I don't believe there are "must wins" in the regular season except for the game you need to get into the playoffs.

    However, a home game against the hated Bulls that would make a statement about how we play strong teams? Yeah, that comes asymptotically close.
    BillS

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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Dog Days, solutions and resurrections..

    Well I am glad to see you back Peck... Maybe your arrival back to the Digest will be the good-luck charm Indiana so desperately NEEDS..

    I know that I remember back in the 80's there were ALOT of players in the NBA who were very superstitious... to the point that they had to do the exact same rituals before every game... And if say for instance one player , forgot to bring his lucky wristband, socks, shoes or etc to the arena, it would throw his whole game off worrying about it.. lol .. That was just an example... But seriously dude, pretty much since your last ODD THOUGHTS on 01-19-2014 for the Clippers game , we (the Pacers) have seemed to have lost their mojo ...

    First off , you most definitely need to get on it with the Odd Thoughts after games lol (me being superstitious now)... And 2nd , let us hope and pray to the basketball gods that our mojo will be restored..... haha
    Quote Originally Posted by naptownmenace View Post
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    Plumlee reminds me of a young Dale Davis. Good rebounding and he contests shots well on defense and his offensive game is very raw just like DD's was coming out of college.
    "If my answers frighten you, then you should cease asking scary questions."

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    The New Gold Swagger travmil's Avatar
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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Dog Days, solutions and resurrections..

    Quote Originally Posted by Kemo View Post
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    I know that I remember back in the 80's there were ALOT of players in the NBA who were very superstitious...
    I was also very superstitious in the 80's. If my team didn't have Larry Bird on it, I worried. A lot.

    So good to see an Odd Thoughts thread to read again.

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    '12 PD Sunshiner awardee Kemo's Avatar
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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Dog Days, solutions and resurrections..

    Quote Originally Posted by Pacergeek View Post
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    is tonight's game a "must win"?
    I think it is personally... For the mental state of the team mostly.... and for us...

    If they go out there and play for each other, with purpose, and get back to what got us here, I think this game tonight will be a turning point for the rest of the season if the guys can get it together.....
    Even if we play a very close game and just happen to lose AS A TEAM , playing the Pacers brand of basketball they have played early on in the season, I still look at it as a turning point to build on and the next game I believe we will stomp a mudhole in Memphis' collective butts ...

    But if we go and get blown out by Chicago by playing lethargic and without purpose, then it is hard saying really how many games it will take for them to get it together....... but I believe eventually they will... come hell or high water.... .... I just don't want them to screw around and end up losing HCA in the playoffs...
    Quote Originally Posted by naptownmenace View Post
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    Plumlee reminds me of a young Dale Davis. Good rebounding and he contests shots well on defense and his offensive game is very raw just like DD's was coming out of college.
    "If my answers frighten you, then you should cease asking scary questions."

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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Dog Days, solutions and resurrections..

    Clear eyes.....

    “WE NEVER SURRENDER, WE NEVER GIVE UP, WE KEEP ATTACKING”- Frank Vogel
    momentarygodsblog.com https://twitter.com/momentarygods

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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Dog Days, solutions and resurrections..

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    Clear eyes.....
    FULL HEARTS!

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    All is full of Orange! Mourning's Avatar
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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Dog Days, solutions and resurrections..

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    Shots are being missed, because they're being forced, IMHO. I'm looking at you Paul George.

    It would be nice to see someone out on the perimeter drive the ball to the basket, kick the ball out for a open jumpshot, another quick line drive, or the catcher immediately throw another pass. The Pacers are thinking way too long about things. They receive a pass, hold on to it for a few seconds, then try to do something. It allows defensive rotations to get into position.

    It's Popovich's 0.5sec rule. They just need to react instinctively and just start playing.
    Very true. This could be a double edged blade though and emphasize another weakpoint of ours. Turnovers...

    The coming few weeks should be very interesting to see where the coaching staff will take the team.

    And... welcome back, Peck! Good to see you around again .
    Last edited by Mourning; 03-21-2014 at 11:22 AM.
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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Dog Days, solutions and resurrections..

    Welcome back....

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZzEzDkeHzI

    Glad to see you and Odd Thoughts are back to entertain us. Hope things are going well with you and your family.
    {o,o}
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  33. #22
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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Dog Days, solutions and resurrections..

    After reviewing advanced stats for 5 hours here are my conclusions based on stats.

    Although our starters may seem to be one of the main issues it's not really on them at all.

    Team's have drastically improved since around January 21st. Half of the NBA teams were not getting fast break points prior to January 21st. We are currently dead last in fast break points since then with 5.9 Per game, the Clippers lead with 17.0 per game.

    Our starters FGM, FGA, AND FG% have NOT noticeable changed at all within in Less Than 5ft ,5-9 ft ,10-14 ft ,15-19 ft ,20-24 ft and 25-29 ft. In fact the starters are averaging more points in the paint then prior to January 21.

    Assist ratio among the starters is down 2.5 assists.

    Team starting sitting more 3's.



    Summary: Drawing from these conclusions I say this:

    1. We did not change at all other then our assist ratio slightly decreasing.

    2. Teams got a lot better.

    4. It has nothing to do with our defence as I thought. Yes the team gets a little tired and discouraged because of the play on offence.

    3. Our bench sucks. But we have the best bench in the NBA. Try to figure that one out.

    Why do I think they suck ?

    The plays and tempo are not meant for the bench. There is no structure for these guys at all.

    THE ROTATION SUCKS.




    In conclusion this is why we didn't win 68 games this year.

    I think in the playoffs we'll be fine but we still should have better offence, rotations and bench structure.
    Last edited by PacersForever; 03-21-2014 at 12:17 PM.

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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Dog Days, solutions and resurrections..

    This season will hit a new low if the lowlife scum Bulls fans are able to celebrate in our arena tonight.

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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Dog Days, solutions and resurrections..

    Quote Originally Posted by Peck View Post
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    We have others who will blame our lack of point guard and George Hill’s aggressiveness from game to game ranging between Stannis Baratheon to Lord Varys.
    And my Pacers Digest heart is whole again.

    Peck is using Game of Thrones analogies on an Odd Thoughts thread!

    Welcome back, we missed you.

  36. #25
    A Magical Place Hoop's Avatar
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    Default Re: Odd Thoughts: Dog Days, solutions and resurrections..

    We have to win this Bulls game.

    If we don't, I don't know what word to use that is higher on the scale than PANIC, I've been there for almost 2 months.
    "Just look at the flowers ........ BANG"

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