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Thread: The 2002-03 Pacers collapse (similarities to 13-14)

  1. #26
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    Default Re: The 2002-03 Pacers collapse (similarities to 13-14)

    We may be falling apart, but I still don't think this comparison holds water for the reasons Sollozzo pointed out. That 02-03 team hadn't even won a playoff series. They fell apart because they were young and inexperienced. This team is falling apart because of something else, but I have no idea what.

    They are only similar in that both teams didn't play well after the all star break, but that's not exactly ground breaking.

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    Default Re: The 2002-03 Pacers collapse (similarities to 13-14)

    I'm not ready to concede yet that this is anything more than coincidence.

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    Default Re: The 2002-03 Pacers collapse (similarities to 13-14)

    So was the goal to have the top record in the East or even the NBA unrealistic?

    You are supposed to beat the 4-5 worst teams in the NBA if you are an elite team. The Heat lost to WINNING TEAMS ON THE ROAD, and 2 of the games were nailbiter close. That's their version of a rough patch. Clunking along down 20 to Charlotte? Almost losing to Milwaukee at home?

    How many 4 game losing streaks did they have last year if we are talking about things that happen all the time? (none)

    The late season "collapse" - 47 win Nets and a 53 win Knicks (in NY). Then the seeding was locked for them and they lost to Philly while starting DJ, Green, Lance, Tyler and Ian (ie, no Hill, PG, West or Roy). The Wiz game was the one bad one, though it was at least a road game the night after losing to OKC. But okay, that could look like the Charlotte loss.

    HOWEVER....

    They had just beaten the 56 win Clippers IN LA to end a FOUR GAME WEST TRIP WIN STREAK!!

    HOU - 45-37
    DAL - 41-41
    PHX - 25-57
    LAC - 56-26


    When was the last road win vs a 45+ win team (by win % pace I mean), let alone 2 within a 4 road game span? GSW on Jan 20th. And the last time they beat 2 teams of that caliber within 4 road games was LAC and SAS way back on Dec 7-10th. That's ALL 3 road wins this year against teams over .500 right now.

    The losing streak LAST YEAR was more like what just happened to Miami. You play crushing ball, destroy people, then hit a tiny bump with a couple of close losses on a 3 game road trip against good playoff teams. So what this presents is that Miami is the team that can look at how Indy played in early April and shake it off. They can say "look we just ran off wins @OKC, @DAL, @GSW. We killed CHI in Miami, so we can absorb an OT loss in CHI and a 3pt loss in HOU."

    The Pacers have no such recent success to lean on and shake this off. They can't look at their schedule and see a path nearly as easy as Miami now sees. The caliber of play we've seen suggests another 4 game losing streak during CHI, @MEM, @CHI, MIA with a risk of making it 5 with @NYK and @WSH on either end. And then you also have SAS, @MIA, and OKC as "unlikely to win" games based on the caliber of play the last month or so.




    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    So we have the first three game losing streak of the season (after a 5 game winning streak) and we're all of the sudden similar to an immature team that had the most epic collapse in franchise history? That 03 team was an immature squad built on a foundation of sand with a ton of issues that at that point had never even won a playoff series together. The 2014 Pacers OTOH took the eventual champs to 7 games last year.

    Who else remembers when we lost 5 of 6 to finish the season a year ago? Remember when OKC came here on a Friday night in early April and DRILLED US, then the very next night we got smoked by the Wizards in the District. Then the next Friday the Nets came in here and clowned on us. Two days later the Knicks run all over us in the Garden. It was just a hideous stretch to finish the season....much worse than what's going on right now. Heck, we also looked pretty bad in those two games in the ATL when the Hawks tied the series up on us. Only after that point did we finally get it all together and go on our tear that took us to Game 7 in South Beach.

    Very few teams make it through an entire season without a rough stretch like this. I think that it's good for them. They can iron out some issues and it will remind them that they can't be so cocky. I still have complete faith in this team and will be shocked beyond belief if we aren't in the ECF's again.

    The near perfect start to the season was bad in that it raised expectations to unrealistic levels. This is not a perfect team and they were bound to go through a rough patch at some point. They will be fine when all of the chips are on the table.

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    Default Re: The 2002-03 Pacers collapse (similarities to 13-14)

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    We may be falling apart, but I still don't think this comparison holds water for the reasons Sollozzo pointed out. That 02-03 team hadn't even won a playoff series. They fell apart because they were young and inexperienced. This team is falling apart because of something else, but I have no idea what.

    They are only similar in that both teams didn't play well after the all star break, but that's not exactly ground breaking.
    1) And in leading the East in wins

    2) And in who their AS were, and like in a very, very, very identical way (I hadn't noticed some of this before)

    How old was JO when he started that ASG? 24
    It was JO's first start. It was his 2nd ASG since he was a reserve the prior year. He had won Most Improved the prior season. He was named to 3rd team all NBA the prior season. He played 33 ASG minutes that year.
    His starting center teammate was an AS reserve, age 26. He played 10 ASG minutes, 4-5 for 8 points.
    The Pacers snub was the famously annoying, "expressive" energy player that often drove the team and pi**ed off opponents.
    The ASG coach was the Pacers head coach.

    How old was Paul when he started this ASG? 23
    It was PG's first start. It was his 2nd ASG since he was a reserve the prior year. He had won Most Improved the prior season. He was named to 3rd team all-NBA the prior season. He played 33 ASG minutes this year.
    His starting center teammate was an AS reserve, age 27. He played ASG 12 minutes, 4-5 for 8 points.
    The Pacers snub was the famously annoying, "expressive" energy player that often drove the team and pi**ed off opponents.
    The ASG coach was the Pacers head coach.


    3) Their first 4 game losing streak occurred on a road game in Texas. SAS then, DAL now. The schedule timing was a bit off, game 62 now, game 56 then. But pretty close.

    4) The 2nd game in that losing streak occurred when they barfed up a road loss to terrible SE USA team. MEM then, CHA now

    5) The "5th game" was a HOME GAME vs a sub-par East coast team. WSH then, BOS now.

    6) And by the way game 6 back then was on the road vs....Boston. Game 6 this year is a road game vs another Atlantic team - PHI.

    The good news for us is that Philly this year is the worst team in the NBA post trade deadline bailout. Contrast that with Boston being 32-25 at the time of that loss.


    7) All the other stuff about the types of clunkers that started to show up before the full-on losing streak kicked in. It's not like the pattern of bad play was just these 4 losses, then or now.


    INEXPERIENCE
    This year's team is no older than that squad. I see your David West and match you with REGGIE FREAKING MILLER. Kenny Anderson as well. Plus that team had the offensive pop of Al Harrington coming off the bench. Pre-injury young Al which is greater than anything Scola or ET are doing right now.




    I'm not ready to concede yet that this is anything more than coincidence.
    Of course. I mean don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to make some hocus-pocus voodoo point here. I'm just saying first off it's really weird and creepy almost, and second that the precedent for exactly this type of collapse being possible has been set.

    Will they repeat that garbage? Good lord I hope not. But it certainly is something an elite Pacers team has done before, especially 1 relying on 4 starters in the 23-27 year old range flanked with a wily vet.

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    Default Re: The 2002-03 Pacers collapse (similarities to 13-14)

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueCollarColts View Post
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    My point was we struggled mightily during the season last year, but turned it up for the playoffs
    See my point where I countered this regarding that 4 game West coast win streak right before the 1-5. Plus it was 1-4 and then all the starters got the night off for the final game of the season. Plus it was 3 strong playoff teams after you just beat 2 strong West playoff team on the road the week prior which ended an 8-1 run.

    "Struggled mightily" is a massive overstatement. They started 4-7 and 10-11. Then they went 39-21. And the 8-1 streak was probably the best stretch of ball they played all season.

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    Default Re: The 2002-03 Pacers collapse (similarities to 13-14)

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    INEXPERIENCE
    This year's team is no older than that squad. I see your David West and match you with REGGIE FREAKING MILLER. Kenny Anderson as well. Plus that team had the offensive pop of Al Harrington coming off the bench. Pre-injury young Al which is greater than anything Scola or ET are doing right now.
    But this team as a collective unit is experienced. This is the third straight season that Hibbert/West/PG/Hill (became the starter at the end of 11-12) have been starting games together. As a unit they have a lot of experience together. They have won a ton of games and three playoff series together, including a curb stomping of a 54 win NY team and then taking the eventual champion Heat to 7 games. The 03 Pacers OTOH were coming off of two straight seasons of being the 8 seed and had never won a playoff series together.

    BTW, Kenny Anderson wasn't on the 02-03 team. He played here in 03-04.

    Also, Reggie's presence on those early 00's teams gets overrated. By most accounts, he was passive to a fault and handed way too much over to JO/etc. That's a far cry from West, who is a tremendous vocal leader and will no doubt rip these guys into shape.

    I just don't see many similarities other than the fact that both teams are the Pacers, as well as the fact that 2014 has the exact same calendar as 2003. The Heat's losing streak is only one behind ours. You could have come up with a thread just like this at the end of last season when we looked like absolute garbage down the stretch and lost 5 of our final 6 games (some pretty ugly losses in there). Most teams go through some ugly slumps at some point in the season, but the odds are substantially against us coming anywhere near matching the most epically awful collapse in Pacer history.
    Last edited by Sollozzo; 03-10-2014 at 11:03 AM.

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    Default Re: The 2002-03 Pacers collapse (similarities to 13-14)

    One big difference? The team quit playing for Isiah in 2003, he lost the team, the players had enough of him. I don't see that now with Frank.

    That to me is a huge difference.

    as far as other points mentioned in this thread, I don't see really any similarities

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    Default Re: The 2002-03 Pacers collapse (similarities to 13-14)

    I think they find their 3rd quarter D and the ship is righted starting Tuesday. I literally think its that simple. The bench at it worst is better than last years bench, it doesn't matter, this team goes as its starting 5 goes. I think they've all had about enough.

    Here's where we stand.

    19 games left
    8 at home (88% winning percentage)
    11 on the road (56% winning percentage)

    46-17 at the moment.

    Tough games to close the season.

    Home:
    Boston
    Phillie
    Chicago
    Miami
    San Antonio
    Detroit
    ATL
    OKC

    Away:
    Phillie
    Detroit
    NY
    Memphis
    Chicago
    Washington
    Cleveland
    Toronto
    Milwaukee
    Miami
    Orlando

    I think you can go 6-2 at home, get 1 of the 3 from Miami Chicago and Spurs. (Chance you beat two of those teams but lose to one of the teams you should beat)
    8-3 on the Road, this is even tougher. I had losses to Memphis, Chicago Miami and one of those other lesser runs beat you just because its hard to win on the road in the NBA. That has you finish 13-6 for 60-22 overall. Miami has the Wiz at home tonight, so they will be 1 game behind the Pacers.

    Lastly, after tonight, Miami has 12 home and 9 away. Its gonna be tough for the Pacers to have the 1st seed in the EC.

  12. #34
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    Default Re: The 2002-03 Pacers collapse (similarities to 13-14)

    03 team didn't have the Legend involved. We're fine.

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    Default Re: The 2002-03 Pacers collapse (similarities to 13-14)

    I apologize if someone has already made this point, but I remember thinking late last year that this team had lost its mojo. We didn't look very good at all as the regular season wound down. I wasn't confident that we'd flip a switch come playoff time, but that's pretty close to what we did.

    Here's to hoping that will happen again so we can better compare to last year's team, not the 02-03 team.

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    Default Re: The 2002-03 Pacers collapse (similarities to 13-14)

    He's turned into my favorite player this year, and although I feel like a broken record, I'm going to say it again. I'm worried about Lance.

    I've been worried about his approach to the game ever since the all star break, and I was worried at the start of the season that he was either going to be our savior or contribute to our undoing.

    Also reading/hearing that he's not been a part of the post-game locker room rallys.

    I hope I'm misreading/misinterpreting what's going on.

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    Default Re: The 2002-03 Pacers collapse (similarities to 13-14)

    as far as other points mentioned in this thread, I don't see really any similarities
    That their star player was MIP the prior season and was voted to their first all-star starting game the year of the collapse, that they led the conference going into the AS break and therefore had the AS head coach and that the starting center was named AS reserve....

    Yes, that isn't similar at all. Much like blue water is totally different than blue sky cause one is liquid. You are focused on one part that is different (and that you have the benefit of hindsight to identify) rather than how many other things are similar. Even the TYPES OF LOSSES are similar. The clunky wins against bad teams, the massive flops against good teams, the freaking timing of losses in the same locations even.

    They play THREE road games in Texas each year, and in both seasons 1 of those games happened to be their first time losing 4 in a row? You really don't see that playing in Texas is similar to playing in Texas or that FOUR is the same as FOUR?


    To me the reaction to this thread is clear - people simple don't want this similarity to be true. The angle is "no, this is Frank's team and these guys aren't the brawl troublemakers (ahem, Reggie, Brad weren't the brawl troublemakers either), and they have won before"... even if the entire bench is 100% changed just from last year, let alone 2 and Danny of the 2nd round team is gone and that first year of round 2 was enhanced by Howard's injury for Orlando.

    Ron joined the starting lineup the prior year (trade mid-season) just like Lance did thanks to Granger's injury. And his joining the heavy minutes seemed at first to be nothing but a godsend to the team despite the antics and drama. Then we started seeing OFFENSIVE CHEMISTRY issues between Artest (Lance) and JO (Paul). Not a similar issue now?

    I love Frank, but the current criticism we are hearing is "NOT TOUGH ON THE PLAYERS". Gee, that's in no way familiar to Isiah being too much of a player's coach and not reigning in the egos in time.


    Here was my point: People suggested that THIS TEAM couldn't implode cause it was so solid and all the wins and all the maturity. Then I showed that in fact they had almost IDENTICAL age make-up, talent make-up and even results make-up.

    Again, the 2003 team didn't just stop winning games forever, they just stopped playing consistent quality games against good teams. They were clunky and hit and miss and they had good wins down the stretch. They didn't go 0-30 to finish. They looked exactly like this because this is what broken chemistry looks like.


    The main difference is that Frank is much better than Isiah at strategy AND that team had not had Brad and Ron for the full 2 years prior and had therefore been a first round and out team instead of a 2nd round and ECF team.

    On the other hand JO had spent 4 years with a Portland playoff team and was far more NBA experienced than Paul George. Artest had more NBA PT by that point than Lance has now. Reggie Miller was DRAMATICALLY more playoff savvy and experienced than either West or Hill.

    So my point that it's ridiculous to say "can't happen here cause not the same" is solid. All the "protection" from failure this team has existed with that team as well.



    BONUS SIMILARITY - oh, yay, the had a great HOME win against another playoff team when they knocked the Bulls down the other day. Finally a big win against a winning team to get the entire fanbase saying "see, they got it fixed"
    Ahem...

    Pacers 91, Bulls 79 on March 21st, game 69. Potential 2nd round opponent if Indy falls behind Miami.
    Pacers 102, Boston 72 on March 19th, game 68. The same Boston team that would eliminate them from the playoffs a month later.



    And how do you think fans felt a few games later when the 2003 team won 140-89 over the Bulls
    . Sure they were bad but that's still a FIFTY-ONE (51) point win. The bench scored 75 points. What would you say if the Pacers won a game a few games from now by 51? You'd say things looked back on track and everything was fixed.

    There was no Peck, Hicks, Buck or Trader Joe post-game thread saying "sure they won by 51 but this team is totally going to lose in round 1 for sure". Not here, the Star, Real GM, newspapers, anywhere. The view was that maybe they had found their footing because a team not playing together can't beat another good playoff team or destroy a bad team in that manner. The "us" of then were just as confused and willing to see things starting to click again.






    I do not want Frank dumped like I wanted Isiah dumped (Frank is who you'd go get if you didn't have him). I don't think Lance will ask for time off to work on his record label. I do not think this team will get in a brawl. I'm not suggesting those types of similarities.

    Heck, the year after the implosion they freaking won 61 games and went to the ECF despite being forced to let an all-star FA go cause they couldn't resign him (Lance??).

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    Default Re: The 2002-03 Pacers collapse (similarities to 13-14)

    Quote Originally Posted by rexnom View Post
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    03 team didn't have the Legend involved. We're fine.
    THE BRAWL TEAM DID.

    Checkmate. Unless you care to make the case that the 2003 meltdown was worse than the brawl, and if so I'm all ears.

    we looked like absolute garbage down the stretch and lost 5 of our final 6 games (some pretty ugly losses in there).
    5 of 6 is 4 of 5...the final game the starters didn't play because their seed was locked.

    3 of the losses were vs playoff teams. The Washington loss could have been a day after hangover from the OKC disappointment.

    The prior 4 games were 4 ROAD WINS vs West teams, 2 of which were strong West teams and a 3rd was at .500. What is this 4 game collapse that lasted 10 days? That's not 2 straight months after having the top record in the East. You only need to go a few weeks back to find multiple wins against winning teams on the road.

    They've beat 2 winning teams in months and one of those is Portland in OT in Indy, a Portland team collapsing harder than Indy btw. Prior to that you have to go back to the start of January with the win over GSW, and that is also how far back you have to go to find a road win over a winning team.

    Here's what happened prior to the OKC, WSH, BRK, NYK losses at the end of the year...
    W by 21 @ CLE (bad team)
    W by 22 vs ORL (bad team)
    W by 24 vs MIL (.500 team)
    L by 3 @ CHI (good team)
    W by 6 vs ATL (good team)
    W by 9 @ HOU (good team)
    W by 25 @ DAL (.500 team)
    W by 8 @ PHX (bad team)
    W by 3 @ LAC (great team)

    You see that and think it looks like this season? I don't. Going 1-4 vs OKC, BRK, NYK, WSH and CLE over 9 days doesn't come close to a trend after those prior 15 days of output. OKC, BRK and NYK won 60, 49 and 54 last year and the WSH game was a road game 2nd night.

    They were beating good teams on the road and beating bad teams by 20. Now they are beating bad teams by 3-5 and beating the worst losing streak team in NBA history by 9-10, and then are losing to good teams. They go down by 15-20 in most of these games and spend most of the game behind in the losses.
    Last edited by Naptown_Seth; 03-26-2014 at 04:20 AM.

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