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Thread: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

  1. #26

    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Part of figuring out what stats are worth trusting is cross-checking them with an eye test now and then, and tweaking the formula if it doesn't mesh with reality. I mean, if you stats tell you that Gerald Green is more efficient at doing something on the basketball court (other than alley oops) than is Lebron, then it's time to rethink things. Trouble is, stat guys don't usually like non quantifiable, empirical data like somebody's "eye test" to in any way affect their analysis. Too bad, because if you could just get formulas to match the eyeball test assessment of (say) Hubie Brown, you'd have something.
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  2. #27
    You Did It Joseph!!!! AesopRockOn's Avatar
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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    This "debate" is a good example of the internet trying to outshout itself because people are too bored to agree with each other.

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  4. #28
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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Quote Originally Posted by aamcguy View Post
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    Yet even if we are all novices, NBA franchises have teams of professionals doing the work for them. All NBA teams use them, but some coaches are more open minded as to their usefulness.
    The information in the right hands is useful. The problem is that not many people have that capability. There's a reason people get doctorates in statistics...and it's because it can be very, very complicated.

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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Quote Originally Posted by AesopRockOn View Post
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    This "debate" is a good example of the internet trying to outshout itself because people are too bored to agree with each other.
    I disagree. Nobody can out shout Stan van Gundy.

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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    *sips Diet Coke*

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  8. #31

    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    I must admit this thread and the back and forth is not making analytics anymore appealing to me as a good tool. In fact just the opposite.
    ITs obvious to me that Stan doesn't know the methodology so he doesn't trust it and rather than asking for the methodology he just criticizes it. Makes sense right?

    THe fact that he said Paul George is the best pnr ball handler defender and then questions the assessment of the stat tells me that he doesn't know what synergy is recording.

    PG is one of the best defenders on "attempts" to score off a pnr. OF course you use pnr's to set up other plays but those are not recorded as pnr plays becuase there wasn't an attempt or "shot" off the pnr ball handler or the roll man.

    ITs plays defended as shot attmepts not play designs that are two or three passes away from a shot attempt. Those are recorded as isolations, spot ups, hand offs etc..

    For example the knicks use a ton of pnr's that collapse a defense that lead to open spot ups for perimeter players. Synergy records it as spot ups not pnr's.

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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Brad Stevens did a pretty good job of leading a team with only 1 NBA player (drafted in 2nd round) to the NCAA championship game as the 8th seed by using advanced statistics to evince opponents' tendencies allowing the team to better prepare for matchups.


    Many people don't like advanced stats because they never really care to find out about them. Once you do, they are extremely fun and often accurate if you look closely.

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  11. #33
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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    As for bringing in new players, advanced stats have played a pretty big role in the Red Sox's titles.

  12. #34
    White and Nerdy Anthem's Avatar
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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Wasn't Van Gundy the guy who talked bad about Frank, saying he wouldn't be able to accomplish any more than O'Brien?
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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    He thought Jimmy got a raw deal in 2011.

    Quote Originally Posted by Basketball Fan View Post
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    http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sport...,1339273.story

    Defending a coach
    Van Gundy is the son of a basketball coach and the brother of a former NBA coach.

    So, it should come as no surprise that Van Gundy doesn't like the Indiana Pacers' decision to fire Jim O'Brien after the Pacers started their season with a 17-27 record.

    What was surprising was that Van Gundy, apropos of nothing, opined about the Pacers' move after his postgame press conference ended Sunday night.

    "What'd you guys think of Jim O'Brien getting fired?" Van Gundy asked reporters. "Do you guys look at that team in Indiana and say, 'Wow, they have great talent? They should be winning a lot more games?' No? Me either. I was just checking.

    "I like [Pacers interim coach] Frank Vogel. I hope he does a good job, but all I'm telling you is Jim O'Brien's a damn good basketball coach, and they're not 10 games under .500 because they've got great talent in Indiana and he wasn't getting it out of 'em."Defending a coach
    Van Gundy is the son of a basketball coach and the brother of a former NBA coach.

    So, it should come as no surprise that Van Gundy doesn't like the Indiana Pacers' decision to fire Jim O'Brien after the Pacers started their season with a 17-27 record.

    What was surprising was that Van Gundy, apropos of nothing, opined about the Pacers' move after his postgame press conference ended Sunday night.

    "What'd you guys think of Jim O'Brien getting fired?" Van Gundy asked reporters. "Do you guys look at that team in Indiana and say, 'Wow, they have great talent? They should be winning a lot more games?' No? Me either. I was just checking.

    "I like [Pacers interim coach] Frank Vogel. I hope he does a good job, but all I'm telling you is Jim O'Brien's a damn good basketball coach, and they're not 10 games under .500 because they've got great talent in Indiana and he wasn't getting it out of 'em."

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  15. #36

    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    I still think its funny that he really gave no real explanation other than I don't trust the people.

    Also people in this thread are talking in some very general terms when it comes to advance statics.

    Some advance statistics are very basic and are not really hard to understand and I would say all of the synergy stats are really basic and easy to interpret which is why I think SVG is kind of being a tool on purpose.



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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    What was surprising was that Van Gundy, apropos of nothing, opined about the Pacers' move after his postgame press conference ended Sunday night.

    "What'd you guys think of Jim O'Brien getting fired?" Van Gundy asked reporters. "Do you guys look at that team in Indiana and say, 'Wow, they have great talent? They should be winning a lot more games?' No? Me either. I was just checking.

    "I like [Pacers interim coach] Frank Vogel. I hope he does a good job, but all I'm telling you is Jim O'Brien's a damn good basketball coach, and they're not 10 games under .500 because they've got great talent in Indiana and he wasn't getting it out of 'em."
    Anybody have our before-and-after numbers handy?

    Stan's a blowhard. Good basketball mind, but great gravy does he have a high opinion of himself.
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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Quote Originally Posted by Anthem View Post
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    Anybody have our before-and-after numbers handy?

    Stan's a blowhard. Good basketball mind, but great gravy does he have a high opinion of himself.
    Well we finished the season 37-45, so we went 20-18 under Vogel the rest of that season. Guess Stan was wrong...

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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    The only problem with advanced stats is that people try to use them to evaluate players. They are best used for game planning and management, but even then, they are just a tool.

    As far as SVG, I think he was just sticking up for a friend and if you read his quotes he's right to a certain extent. Obie definitely didn't have the players to run his system effectively. Vogel was a much better fit for our roster and he did what a lot of us were calling for Obrien to do in the first place. He slowed the pace down, refined our defensive scheme and that helped our young players develop, leading to more wins.

    Honestly when Vogel was hired I worried he was gonna resemble Obie but he couldn't of been more different. And if he tried to continue that style we wouldn't have improved much, IMO.

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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    When SVG was the head coach of the Heat prior to being Riley'd out on a rail, he was just about my favorite coach in basketball at that time. When he got the Orlando job after not liking how our multiheaded front office treated him when he came up to potentially take our head coaching position, his method changed.

    I suspect that Stan relied too much on the stats to make decisions on his players and the style of play the Magic employed while he was their coach. I also suspect that he probably realizes that now, leading to some of his criticisms of them. They played very outside-in with a high amount of 3's to open up the inside for Howard to work. He also employed slashers who kicked the ball out to the perimeter as well. It was no accident that, even beyond his usual arrogance, Howard complained long and loud about not getting enough touches.

    I also believe that he saw that JOB used a similar strategic logic on offense (despite the Pacers more hectic pace) and that biased him into both believing JOB to be a better coach of the Pacers than he actually was, as well as leading him to wrongly conclude that the Pacers did not have enough talent to win at a higher clip than they did under JOB. Most would have agreed with that sentiment at the time, but several of us here saw things differently than that and were pretty vocal about it.

    I also suspect that SVG believes that "hot streaks" exist now, where he might not have for a while.

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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    I don't know why people fail to realize that the so-called "eye test" and analytics are two sides of the same coin. A person should use both of them in order to reach a conclusion. Neither the eye test nor analytics are a gospel. They should both be used in conjecture with each other.

    To explain it better. Both the eye test and analytics give an answer to the same issue. The difference is that analytics answer to the question "What?" while the eye test anwers to the question "Why?" or "How?". You need to know the answer to both of them and that's why you should use both of them. Dismissing either one of them is just wrong.
    Last edited by Nuntius; 03-04-2014 at 01:21 AM.
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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Quote Originally Posted by Taterhead View Post
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    As far as SVG, I think he was just sticking up for a friend and if you read his quotes he's right to a certain extent. Obie definitely didn't have the players to run his system effectively. Vogel was a much better fit for our roster and he did what a lot of us were calling for Obrien to do in the first place. He slowed the pace down, refined our defensive scheme and that helped our young players develop, leading to more wins.
    Except he didn't say anything about "fit" or "schemes". He said "talent". He clearly said Jim O'Brien wasn't the reason we were ten games under .500, it was the lack of talent on the roster. Nobody could win with that. But Vogel did.

    Van Gundy is a blowhard and if he dismisses the analytical crowd, then there must be something worth studying in these stats, because he's already shown he can't evaluate talent without them.
    Last edited by TinManJoshua; 03-04-2014 at 10:28 AM.

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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd


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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Quote Originally Posted by Nuntius View Post
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    I don't know why people fail to realize that the so-called "eye test" and analytics are two sides of the same coin. A person should use both of them in order to reach a conclusion. Neither the eye test nor analytics are a gospel. They should both be used in conjecture with each other.

    To explain it better. Both the eye test and analytics give an answer to the same issue. The difference is that analytics answer to the question "What?" while the eye test anwers to the question "Why?" or "How?". You need to know the answer to both of them and that's why you should use both of them. Dismissing either one of them is just wrong.
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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Quote Originally Posted by Brad8888 View Post
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    I also suspect that SVG believes that "hot streaks" exist now, where he might not have for a while.
    I'm glad you brought up the issue of hot streaks. I assume that because you put the phrase in quotation marks, you don't believe they exist.

    In basketball circles, the issue of hot streaks has become the classic "nerds vs. jocks" argument. Jocks believe that they get a Hot Hand - they "catch fire" and are able to hit shots at a higher rate than normal. Nerds ran the numbers and showed evidence that the FG% of NBA players decreases after every shot they made. IE, if you have hit three shots in a row, your expected FG% is lower than it would be if you have hit zero/missed your last shot.

    As a dude who likes numbers but also was a decent ball player back in the day, I've always been conflicted by this. I saw the numbers and saw the logic, but I have also played and felt the Hot Hand effect. I always thought that an increased shot distance and defensive scrutiny explained the drop in FG%.

    Well, read this:

    http://www.sloansportsconference.com...w-Approach.pdf

    This is a Sloan paper attacking the "Hot Hand Fallacy". It used SportVU cameras to run the numbers on people with Hot Hands while adjusting for shot distance and defensive distance. Their data seems to indicate that the Hot Hand exists, but is obscured by those two factors.

    See? Jocks and nerds can live in harmony, people.

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  31. #46
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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Quote Originally Posted by TinManJoshua View Post
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    Except he didn't say anything about "fit" or "schemes". He said "talent". He clearly said Jim O'Brien wasn't the reason we were ten games under .500, it was the lack of talent on the roster. Nobody could win with that. But Vogel did.

    Van Gundy is a blowhard and if he dismisses the analytical crowd, then there must be something worth studying I'm these stats, because he's already shown he can't evaluate talent without them.
    That's a silly reason to believe in advanced statistics JMO. I don't think anyone has said they don't have a place, they do. There is a group of coaches in the league that use them, but when they evaluate players they use the eye test. I don't honestly believe any coach uses them to the extent some fans do.

    I also strongly disagree with Nuntius assertion that it's two sides of a coin. The eye test severely out weighs advanced stats, and it's not even close. There are no stats for work ethic, overcoming adversity, character, competitive drive, momentum, toughness, intelligence, etc. Stats can only tell you what happened in a certain situation at a certain time. But they can't PROJECT. The eye test along with knowledge that stems from experience can. I've seen players with horrible stats have a HUGE impact on games many times. And I've seen players with great stats not impact games at all. So stats in general are just a tool designed for people who didn't get to see the game. And that is actually how stats came about BTW, so people could fallow the game before highlights and TV deals came along.

    We are becoming way too computerized and lazy and advanced stats are a product of that. It's just people trying to gain an edge.


    As far as SVG, he wasn't the only person that thought our roster was horrible at the time, most of us did too, and our roster sucked so bad when Bird pursued Rick Adelman the fallowing off season he got turned down for f'n Minnesota!

    A lot has happened in the last 3 years.

    Edit: so Lebron wasn't on a hot streak last night? Those 30 footers were completely normal?
    Last edited by Taterhead; 03-04-2014 at 11:41 AM.
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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Quote Originally Posted by Taterhead View Post
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    I don't honestly believe any coach uses them to the extent some fans do.
    Coaches rely on them much more than the casual fan, as organizations have much much much more detailed stats. I mean, the Houston Rockets have practically been built around them. Brad Stevens hired a kid at Butler that had no clue about basketball, just crunched numbers. And then took him to Boston.
    Last edited by Since86; 03-04-2014 at 11:50 AM.
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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Quote Originally Posted by FlavaDave View Post
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    In basketball circles, the issue of hot streaks has become the classic "nerds vs. jocks" argument. Jocks believe that they get a Hot Hand - they "catch fire" and are able to hit shots at a higher rate than normal. Nerds ran the numbers and showed evidence that the FG% of NBA players decreases after every shot they made. IE, if you have hit three shots in a row, your expected FG% is lower than it would be if you have hit zero/missed your last shot.
    I compare that to momentum within a game. I bet if you ran the numbers you could disprove that there is such a thing as momentum. After a team outscores the other 4-0, or 8-2. I bet you cannot prove momentum is any more real than a player having a hot hand. But I know they are both real, but just not statitically proveable
    Last edited by Unclebuck; 03-04-2014 at 03:01 PM.

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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Quote Originally Posted by Taterhead View Post
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    As far as SVG, I think he was just sticking up for a friend and if you read his quotes he's right to a certain extent. Obie definitely didn't have the players to run his system effectively.
    What does it say about his ability to coach if he's trying to force a "system" that doesn't take into account the players he had on the team?

    I usually enjoy SVG, but he was way off the mark when he said that Obie was a victim of the circumstances. Vogel meaningfully proved that by his results that very season.

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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Quote Originally Posted by docpaul View Post
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    What does it say about his ability to coach if he's trying to force a "system" that doesn't take into account the players he had on the team?

    I usually enjoy SVG, but he was way off the mark when he said that Obie was a victim of the circumstances. Vogel meaningfully proved that by his results that very season.
    SVG doesn't understand losing a team and what that looks like. He has had it happen more than once in his tenure as a coach and he didn't recognize that JOB had lost the team with his constant griping and iron fist approach that emotionally drained the team into a bad record.
    Last edited by Gamble1; 03-04-2014 at 12:18 PM.

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