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Thread: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

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    Administrator Unclebuck's Avatar
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    Default Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    I agree with Stan. Granted there is a gray area here where you can use analytics as a tool. But overall I am not a believer in it. But more and more coaches use it and more and more front office types use it.

    Stan's best argument against is the data is collected in a manner and by people who do it incorrectly. Therefore garbage in garbage out

    http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/03/01/stan-van-gundy-questions-integrity-of-advanced-statistical-data-at-sloan-sports-analytics-conference/


    BOSTON – Stan Van Gundy appeared as part of the basketball analytics panel at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference on Friday, and while he isn’t opposed to coaches integrating advanced statistical data into their day-to-day operations, he was concerned about the particulars of how the data is acquired, and who, exactly, is responsible for sorting it all out.

    Van Gundy posed legitimate questions that would theoretically need to be addressed before the basketball purists at the NBA level take the data as gospel, and making sure that whoever is identifying certain play types and quantifying them knows basketball, and is doing that job to the specifications of a particular head coach.

    “I don’t trust most of it,” Van Gundy said, beginning an exquisite rant on the topic. “I read some of the stuff that people write on ESPN.com, you know, I’ll read stats on pick and roll defense and stuff that came off Synergy or somewhere else — I don’t know who the hell is recording that information!”

    “I read a thing in the playoffs last year that said that New York isolated like 17 percent of the time,” he continued. “I’m watching their games, they isolate half of the time, at least. So I don’t know who’s recording that. If there’s a pick and roll, and they throw it back to Carmelo and he holds the ball and isolates for eight seconds, that’s a pick and roll play, not an isolation? And a lot of pick and roll stuff … you know, I read a thing today from ESPN the Magazine on Paul George being the best pick and roll defender in the league on the ball handler. Look, a lot of pick and rolls … there’s pick and rolls designed to score, and there’s pick and rolls you run to get into something else. If you’re recording it and you’re treating those two things the same, then you don’t know what you’re doing.”

    Van Gundy really does like the additional available data — he just needs to be able to trust that whoever is compiling it has the same standards basketball-wise that he does. Ironically enough, I overheard a statistician type at one of the panel discussions explaining to a colleague that of course he watches games — but only to enhance his data set.

    “I mean, I do watch the games,” this person said, “to to try to pick up on some things that maybe my numbers aren’t catching.”

    This is obviously completely backwards, and as far as Van Gundy is concerned, there’s simply no substitution for the eye test.

    “To me, I think that a lot of the analytic stuff can be very useful, but if you’re using that in place of sitting down and watching film yourself and seeing what’s going on, you’re making a big mistake,” Van Gundy said. “And I don’t want to offend anybody, but I think one of the problems with analytics — I think it’s good; I used it, I love looking at it — but one of the problems is, there are a lot of people in a lot of organizations who don’t know the game, who all they know is analytics and as a result, that’s what they rely on. And they will use that to supersede what guys like us see with our eyes. And I think that’s a major mistake. There’s no substitute for watching film over and over and over again, and the only numbers I trust are the ones that my people believe.”

    Van Gundy isn’t alone in his hesitance, and it will take some time before everyone trusts the way that the bulk of the data is quantified and labeled for mass consumption.

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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Data can help you build a great team over the course of a regular season, a la 2002's Oakland A's, but when it comes down to it, to win in the playoffs, you have to put points on the board, get rebounds, and play defense. Data won't fill the stats sheet, players do. I'm with SVG on this one. It's an interesting tool, but it cannot be relied on to build a true contender.
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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    You do you dismiss analyticals when you admit you used them and think they're good? He's dismissing those who only rely on stats, not the stats in general.
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right. ― Ricky Gervais.

    What if someone from a school of business or management school were to ask, How did you do this? How did you get the Pacers turned around? Is there a general approach you've taken that can be summarized?

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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    I think he makes an interesting point. Like the part about how some pick and rolls aren't designed to score, but to set up something else, yet the players involved in the pick and roll (on both teams) are going to have their PnR stats altered due to that play, when the point was never to score or stop the score on that play.

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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    I think he makes an interesting point. Like the part about how some pick and rolls aren't designed to score, but to set up something else, yet the players involved in the pick and roll (on both teams) are going to have their PnR stats altered due to that play, when the point was never to score or stop the score on that play.
    Not entirely true, the PnR play might have been designed to get you something else, but if defenders completely fall asleep on it, then it quickly becomes a scoring situation. No player would pass up an easy bucket because the play was designed to get the ball somewhere else. So I think its accurate to treat every PnR the same.
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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Quote Originally Posted by Steagles View Post
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    Data can help you build a great team over the course of a regular season, a la 2002's Oakland A's, but when it comes down to it, to win in the playoffs, you have to put points on the board, get rebounds, and play defense. Data won't fill the stats sheet, players do. I'm with SVG on this one. It's an interesting tool, but it cannot be relied on to build a true contender.
    Most offenses are designed to get good looks close to the basket, yet our defense invites them in while giving them bad angles at the hoop. We have a player waiting down there who makes the most efficient shot in the game either a waste of clock time or a low percentage shot. We run guys off the 3 point line because having guys shoot a shot they make 10% less of the time yet is worth 50% more is inefficient. We try to contest all shots, but if we have to leave a guy open it's a midrange shot or a 3 at the wings.

    Granted, these are simple enough assertions that you don't need advanced stats to make them; a simple glance at a floor percentage chart would do that. But when you get down to game planning for good scorers, advanced stats are a great way to fill in incomplete knowledge or alert you of new information. You can only spend so many hours watching film to pick up this information, and the chances are you want to spend more time on the teams you're likely to face in the conference semifinals and finals. You of course have to have the right players to execute your gameplan.

    I don't think it's a coincidence that the teams leading the league in win percentage are three teams with coaches who are known for valuing analytics.
    My prediction: Solomon Hill is going to lead the team in Surprisingly Good Plays for the year. -10/29/2014

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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Quote Originally Posted by graphic-er View Post
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    Not entirely true, the PnR play might have been designed to get you something else, but if defenders completely fall asleep on it, then it quickly becomes a scoring situation. No player would pass up an easy bucket because the play was designed to get the ball somewhere else. So I think its accurate to treat every PnR the same.

    Your point is OK until your last sentence. I believe it is a big mistake to treat all pick and rolls the same. Going by your logic every play should be treated the same because every play no matter what it may be could turn into a score if the defenders fall asleep.

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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Quote Originally Posted by aamcguy View Post
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    I don't think it's a coincidence that the teams leading the league in win percentage are three teams with coaches who are known for valuing analytics.
    Frank? OK. But I didn't know Spoelstra and Brooks were known for valuing it. I really doubt Popovich is a big believer in it.

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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    1) van Gundy said he likes the stats and uses them, so he did not dismiss the stats themselves. He is dismissing people who ONLY use them. No head coach in the league only uses them. Maybe there are some front office guys who are, and they are making a gigantic mistake if so.

    2) Stan seems to not use Synergy very much. When you search for play type, they are initially organized by the action that lead to the shot. P'n'r up top, kick out to man on the wing, dump into the post for a hook shot. That is classified as a Post Up. HOWEVER, you can also assess overall versions of the same stats. You can look up PPP on possessions that included a p'n'r at some point, even if it didn't lead to a shot.

    Separating the stat out like that is good information. Stan actually unwittingly makes the case for this separation without knowing it. He is simply ignorant of the fact that the distinction exists.

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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    Frank? OK. But I didn't know Spoelstra and Brooks were known for valuing it. I really doubt Popovich is a big believer in it.
    Here's where my main bit came from for Frank and Spoelstra: http://www.nba.com/pacers/news/vogel...wing-trend-nba I think there was more stuff that came out during our playoff series that talked about why the Heat's offense puts people in the places it does, specifically Bosh.

    Brooks I can't find one I've read before, but I remember reading about how he gears his defense towards limiting field goal percentage. They obviously have a much different defense than we do, but it is effective at their pace of play.

    Also, I want to clarify that I think the reason they are leading by percentage points over the other teams is because of an emphasis on it. Without the advantage I believe to be there, I still think they would be right around the top anyway. I think where it helps the most is in the playoffs, which is why we were able to overachieve our first two forays in with Vogel.
    Last edited by aamcguy; 03-03-2014 at 03:43 PM.
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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Quote Originally Posted by Steagles View Post
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    It's an interesting tool, but it cannot be relied on to build a true contender.
    Depends on your definitions, I guess. Mark Cuban is one of the acknowledged pioneers of the advanced stat crowd, and his Mavs have already won a championship.

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    Frank? OK. But I didn't know Spoelstra and Brooks were known for valuing it. I really doubt Popovich is a big believer in it.
    Spoelstra and Brooks, yes. I've not seen Pop talk much about stats, but the Spurs in general are heavy into analytics, and I don't think it was an accident that the Spurs were exploiting the corner 3 (the shot identified by analytics as the most efficient outside of the paint) way before anyone else. I mean, it's possible that Pop's intuition was so good that he figured out the corner 3 without use of advanced stats, but that seems unlikely.

    To SVG's larger point. Sure, data collection can and should be improved, and that's why people are excited by the Synergy data and the upcoming SportsVU stuff. But even as things stand right now, in other industries people regularly get useful information out of unreliable data, I mean that's why engineers/scientists are trained in basic statistical tools. Analytics are helpful now to people who know how to use them, and will only improve as the data gets better.

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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    I think he makes an interesting point. Like the part about how some pick and rolls aren't designed to score, but to set up something else, yet the players involved in the pick and roll (on both teams) are going to have their PnR stats altered due to that play, when the point was never to score or stop the score on that play.
    How?

    Synergy is going to classify it as a scoring play so if there is a pass like a pnp then it will be recorded as a pnr or a spot up.

    This is where I see them screw things up once in a while but if there is no score off the pnr and if the is a second pass then the pnr defense won't get the credit or the blame.

    IF there isnt' a pass then it records it as a pnr ball handler. The duration of time between player movements is fair point but I have never seen 8 seconds between a pnr on synergy be recorded as a pnr play. I see it as a isolation nearly every time.
    Last edited by Gamble1; 03-03-2014 at 05:10 PM.

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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    I'm not a big believer in stats. I feel they only tell a small part of the story. Some of arguments I get into here at PD, are usually stats contradicting what my own two eyes are seeing.

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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute View Post
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    I've not seen Pop talk much about stats, but the Spurs in general are heavy into analytics, and I don't think it was an accident that the Spurs were exploiting the corner 3 (the shot identified by analytics as the most efficient outside of the paint) way before anyone else. I mean, it's possible that Pop's intuition was so good that he figured out the corner 3 without use of advanced stats, but that seems unlikely.
    Maybe it is just because I am relatively young, but I think it is pretty obvious the corner three is highly efficient. It is a 3 point shot from 2 point range. I have always thought that the court needs to be widened in order to eliminate the corner three from being so close.

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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Quote Originally Posted by pogi View Post
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    I'm not a big believer in stats. I feel they only tell a small part of the story. Some of arguments I get into here at PD, are usually stats contradicting what my own two eyes are seeing.
    The problem I have with most people who come with that perspective is that they can very seldom explain why the stat is false using examples. They can usually only dismiss the stat because they don't believe it.

    Human beings are pattern-seeking, meaning the smallest visual repetition can seem to be the proof of a pattern. The value in statistics is they keep that eye test honest. If you think player A spends all his time shooting, but the statistics show that he only takes 2 shots for every 30 minutes he is on the floor, then it tells you that there's something about how you are interpreting what you are seeing that is wrong. Now, it could be that the guy is holding on to the ball for 15 minutes and either shooting or turning it over, but it still means the "eye" interpretation is incorrect. Of course, the statistic isn't complete in and of itself, either, but it takes a lot of different statistics to come close to a picture. People tend to think the eye test is complete without need for any other information.

    Stats are numbers. While some are more subjective than others (like assists), most (player hit 5 of 7 shots in 22 minutes) don't lie or tell the truth. They are just facts. Assembling them is the key.
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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    The more I read in our commentary, the more I'm being led to believe that van Gundy's problem is that he has such a big ego that he thinks "statistics nerds" can't possibly come up with information that is as useful as he does by watching the game. Of course if I was a coach and had spent my whole life learning the ins and outs of the game, I might be a little resentful of men and women in their mid 20's having valid dissenting arguments to my own with under 10 years of experience...in a field tangential to the one they are commenting on.
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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Being a good coach and being a good GM require two different mindsets. Being a good requires you to know and understand an individual player in a way stats cannot encompass in order to get the most out of that player. A coach is more of a micro-manager. A GM, or scout, on the other hand doesn't need that minute detail, and statistics can more accurately portray the players abilities. This is ultimately I think where the divide is. The coach's main focus is on how to get the player in the best position to do what he is best at, while the GMs main focus is on knowing what the player can do. In both cases stats can be highly useful tools, but stats can't really take into consideration many of the finer details. Meaning stats can be far more useful for a GM/Scout than a coach.

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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    Your point is OK until your last sentence. I believe it is a big mistake to treat all pick and rolls the same. Going by your logic every play should be treated the same because every play no matter what it may be could turn into a score if the defenders fall asleep.
    You couldn't be more wrong on the application of my logic. The PnR refers to an offensive set. Just like a High Post up is an offensive set, as is a low post up. These are different sets/plays. Pick and Pop is a different set too. Therefore you track them accordingly.

    If you don't score out of the PnR then it is a successfully defended PnR, doesn't matter if that was the offense's intention or not. The Defense must think the offense's intention is to always score. So every PnR should count the same from a stats point of view.
    You can't get champagne from a garden hose.

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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Obviously if the defense gives you something you didn't expect it to give, you exploit that as much as possible, but if a PnR is run just to open up something on the weak side after 1-2 passes out of the PnR, I don't give the defense as much credit for "stopping" the pick and roll based on the fact that they didn't score out of it. But, yes, if the defense was THAT BAD, and they scored anyway, that would mean something, too. It just goes to show you the depth of subjectivity in basketball and in statistics and why there is no gold standard at this point besides just weighing what you see what the stats as best you can while acknowledging the flaws of both.

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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    I must admit this thread and the back and forth is not making analytics anymore appealing to me as a good tool. In fact just the opposite.

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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    I must admit this thread and the back and forth is not making analytics anymore appealing to me as a good tool. In fact just the opposite.
    At this stage, the data collection is really just dumping everything into a bucket. The better people are at sifting it, the more valuable it will be.

    Compiling the information has always been the challenge. Figuring out how to use it is what makes a statistician worth something.
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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Quote Originally Posted by pogi View Post
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    I'm not a big believer in stats. I feel they only tell a small part of the story. Some of arguments I get into here at PD, are usually stats contradicting what my own two eyes are seeing.
    Completely agree with you. Most of what transpires on a basketball court can not be found on a stat sheet. Stats can HELP make some arguments, but those acting like stats are the end all be all simply don't understand the game IMO.

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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    I am a big analytics guy myself. Human beings have bias all over. Can advanced stats be improved? Sure. Does it matter who tracks some of this stuff? Absolutely. Stan brought up some good points and some possible flaws in the current system. The fact of the matter is that stats have no bias, people do. We can keep making advanced statistics better and more uniform, but the way the league is trending advanced stats are here to say.

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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    At this stage, the data collection is really just dumping everything into a bucket. The better people are at sifting it, the more valuable it will be.

    Compiling the information has always been the challenge. Figuring out how to use it is what makes a statistician worth something.
    This. There are a lot of variables involved and to draw any meaningful conclusions from statistics is not easy at all. The main problem with statistics is that all of us can look at them and start making judgments when invalid conclusions are made 90% of the time it seems because you can almost always shoot holes in a conclusion. It would be hard to count the number of times I've seen attempts at using stats to make conclusions here that even I can easily spot fatal flaws...and I'm a novice.

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    Default Re: Stan van Gundy dismisses the analytics crowd

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    This. There are a lot of variables involved and to draw any meaningful conclusions from statistics is not easy at all. The main problem with statistics is that all of us can look at them and start making judgments when invalid conclusions are made 90% of the time it seems because you can almost always shoot holes in a conclusion. It would be hard to count the number of times I've seen attempts at using stats to make conclusions here that even I can easily spot fatal flaws...and I'm a novice.
    Yet even if we are all novices, NBA franchises have teams of professionals doing the work for them. All NBA teams use them, but some coaches are more open minded as to their usefulness.
    My prediction: Solomon Hill is going to lead the team in Surprisingly Good Plays for the year. -10/29/2014

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