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Thread: Explain to me PER , concerning Lance Stephenson

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    Default Explain to me PER , concerning Lance Stephenson

    Lance is averaging 14/7/5 50%fg 35%3pnt. He's a solid if not above average defender. Yet, his PER is only 15. something.

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    Artificial Intelligence wintermute's Avatar
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    Default Re: Explain to me PER , concerning Lance Stephenson

    The easy answer is that PER isn't a great stat and one shouldn't rely on it for all-in-one comparisons of different players PER doesn't even try to account for defense btw.

    The more complex answer is that Lance simply doesn't score enough to show well in PER. Check out this bbref query:

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...r_by=pts_per_g

    Of SGs this season who average 35 MPG or more, Lance scores the least by far. (I put in height > 6'3'' in the query to exclude point guards, but it's not perfect as guys like Wall and Lillard still get included). One problem with PER is that it values production per minute, so even though Lance is middle of the pack in terms of shooting efficiency (among this elite group anyway), he gets penalized for not taking more attempts. Note how guys like Thompson and Afflalo are similarly penalized.

    Another factor is that Lance doesn't get to the line. His FTA/36 is second lowest in that group, just ahead of Thompson. It's crazy that a guy with his size and strength doesn't get to the line more. His turnover% is also the worst in that group, but it's not out-of the-world bad at least.

    On the positive side, Lance does pretty well on my preferred all-in-one stat (Win Shares). So I think he's fine overall

    TL;DR: To improve his PER, Lance needs to 1) score more points while maintaining his percentages (this is an issue particular to PER); 2) get to the line more; and 3) cut down on his turnovers. Of these, the last 2 are more important, and will boost his efficiency by any metric.

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    Default Re: Explain to me PER , concerning Lance Stephenson

    I don't care if he improves his PER or not, but we are a much better team if Lance got to the line even a little more,

    and (especially!) if he eliminates the unforced "look at me make this amazingly flashy but difficult pass, when a simple pass would work great" type of turnover.
    Last edited by Slick Pinkham; 03-03-2014 at 03:44 PM.
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    Default Re: Explain to me PER , concerning Lance Stephenson

    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute View Post
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    The easy answer is that PER isn't a great stat and one shouldn't rely on it for all-in-one comparisons of different players PER doesn't even try to account for defense btw.

    The more complex answer is that Lance simply doesn't score enough to show well in PER. Check out this bbref query:

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...r_by=pts_per_g

    Of SGs this season who average 35 MPG or more, Lance scores the least by far. (I put in height > 6'3'' in the query to exclude point guards, but it's not perfect as guys like Wall and Lillard still get included). One problem with PER is that it values production per minute, so even though Lance is middle of the pack in terms of shooting efficiency (among this elite group anyway), he gets penalized for not taking more attempts. Note how guys like Thompson and Afflalo are similarly penalized.

    Another factor is that Lance doesn't get to the line. His FTA/36 is second lowest in that group, just ahead of Thompson. It's crazy that a guy with his size and strength doesn't get to the line more. His turnover% is also the worst in that group, but it's not out-of the-world bad at least.

    On the positive side, Lance does pretty well on my preferred all-in-one stat (Win Shares). So I think he's fine overall

    TL;DR: To improve his PER, Lance needs to 1) score more points while maintaining his percentages (this is an issue particular to PER); 2) get to the line more; and 3) cut down on his turnovers. Of these, the last 2 are more important, and will boost his efficiency by any metric.
    Straight win share has a big problem also, it is too reliant on minutes played. If two players don't play similar minutes it is about worthless because it is more alike to total FTM than FT%. I personally like using Ortg and Drtg.

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    Default Re: Explain to me PER , concerning Lance Stephenson

    Quote Originally Posted by Slick Pinkham View Post
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    I don't care if he improves his PER on not, but we are a much better team if Lance got to the line even a little more,

    and (especially!) if he eliminates the unforced "look at me make this amazingly flashy but difficult pass, when a simple pass would work great" type of turnover.
    He needs to be smarter with the ball. Now i know he gets triple doubles, but some of the passes he makes, and the 1 on 5 he tries to do just doesn't work. But he is so much better and mature this year. He has such a high ceiling
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    Default Re: Explain to me PER , concerning Lance Stephenson

    PER is so incredibly imperfect. It really only does a good job showing you who the truly elite are, but it is very wonky after that and most poeple can figure that out anyway. Hollinger, since he created it, would tell you it does a good job revealing low usage players, but that needs to be taken with a grain of salt because Copeland had the second highest PER on the Pacers for most of the season after Paul.

    I don't hate PER and can reveal some interesting things, but it needs to be heavily combined with the eye test to be at all reliable.

    I am looking towards the new stats that one group is working on, I think those have a lot of potential. There was an article about it recently. There are stats are very much in their infancy and they are working out all the kinks, but it will be based on the SportsVU data that is being collected this year in every arena around the league, they did it last year too, but only 14 arenas had the tech for it or something like that.

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    Artificial Intelligence wintermute's Avatar
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    Default Re: Explain to me PER , concerning Lance Stephenson

    Quote Originally Posted by Eleazar View Post
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    Straight win share has a big problem also, it is too reliant on minutes played. If two players don't play similar minutes it is about worthless because it is more alike to total FTM than FT%. I personally like using Ortg and Drtg.
    Sure, WS/48 normalizes to minutes played.

    One issue I have with ORtg when applied to individual players is that it consistently overrates low-usage, high efficiency big men. For example, Robin Lopez is currently leading the league in individual ORtg. But sure, those are useful indicators.

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    I am looking towards the new stats that one group is working on, I think those have a lot of potential. There was an article about it recently. There are stats are very much in their infancy and they are working out all the kinks, but it will be based on the SportsVU data that is being collected this year in every arena around the league, they did it last year too, but only 14 arenas had the tech for it or something like that.
    Did you mean this?

    http://grantland.com/features/expect...nba-analytics/

    Yeah, that's pretty neat stuff. It's definitely great that people are looking for data other than boxscores. Real out-of-the-box thinking haha

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    Default Re: Explain to me PER , concerning Lance Stephenson

    Quote Originally Posted by Slick Pinkham View Post
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    I don't care if he improves his PER on not, but we are a much better team if Lance got to the line even a little more
    Agreed, but I don't necessarily blame Lance. I'm really not an "OMG refs!" guy. I think calls almost always equal out in every game. Even when I'm pissed at a call, I generally find I conclude the game thinking the officiating was even.

    But I hold that Lance is officiated differently, and not in a good way, than almost every other NBA player.

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    Default Re: Explain to me PER , concerning Lance Stephenson

    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Hibbert View Post
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    But I hold that Lance is officiated differently, and not in a good way, than almost every other NBA player.
    I'm curious as to what you mean here--if you wouldn't mind explaining of course.

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    Default Re: Explain to me PER , concerning Lance Stephenson

    Quote Originally Posted by Ace E.Anderson View Post
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    I'm curious as to what you mean here--if you wouldn't mind explaining of course.
    Tight whistle on him (officials practically waiting to T him up, don't tolerate any clearing of space, etc.) and loose whistle against him (his FTAs don't mesh with the amount of times he's decked on a drive to the hoop). He gets contacted A LOT with no calls in his favor.

    Some is his fault: he acts too much. If he just reacted as if fouled when legitimate, he would draw more calls. Officials know he has a history of theatrics, and as such, they don't reward going to the floor often/that often.

    Some of it is absolutely officials: his game isn't officiated the same way most others' is. Are? Is? Gah. Grammar.

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    Default Re: Explain to me PER , concerning Lance Stephenson

    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Hibbert View Post
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    Tight whistle on him (officials practically waiting to T him up, don't tolerate any clearing of space, etc.) and loose whistle against him (his FTAs don't mesh with the amount of times he's decked on a drive to the hoop). He gets contacted A LOT with no calls in his favor.

    Some is his fault: he acts too much. If he just reacted as if fouled when legitimate, he would draw more calls. Officials know he has a history of theatrics, and as such, they don't reward going to the floor often/that often.

    Some of it is absolutely officials: his game isn't officiated the same way most others' is. Are? Is? Gah. Grammar.
    Sounds like they are reffing him the way they should ref everything.

    A lot of times Lance lands on his butt only because of what he does in the air, not because of what the other player does. He likes to twist and turn his body in weird ways that make it difficult to keep his feet under him if there is any contact. The Korver foul that kept him out the next game wouldn't have been half as bad if he would have just gone up like a normal player. Instead he turned his body before the foul, and had no way to catch himself.

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    Member Ace E.Anderson's Avatar
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    Default Re: Explain to me PER , concerning Lance Stephenson

    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Hibbert View Post
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    Tight whistle on him (officials practically waiting to T him up, don't tolerate any clearing of space, etc.) and loose whistle against him (his FTAs don't mesh with the amount of times he's decked on a drive to the hoop). He gets contacted A LOT with no calls in his favor.

    Some is his fault: he acts too much. If he just reacted as if fouled when legitimate, he would draw more calls. Officials know he has a history of theatrics, and as such, they don't reward going to the floor often/that often.

    Some of it is absolutely officials: his game isn't officiated the same way most others' is. Are? Is? Gah. Grammar.
    I think Lance hasn't quite learned how to draw fouls quite yet. He's getting a tad better at it, but instead of looking to finish at the basket strong every time he looks to draw contact and get fouled. This leads to forced shot attempts.

    On most of his drives, he's initiating contact (as he should with that big body) but he should just look to finish as opposed to looking to draw a foul. He normally gets the foul or an "and-1" when he's looking to finish strong at the rim as opposed to looking to draw a foul.

    But I agree, his flopping and theatrics aren't doing him any favors either.

    I thought Lance could have learned from a sequence by Evan Turner yesterday. ET got fouled 3 times in a row, without a whistle. He just kept attacking and as opposed to looking to draw a foul, he was looking to make a shot and was eventually rewarded with the call (he missed the FT and Scola got a lane violation on the second attempt). When you're a young player you have to know you're not going to get the benefit of the doubt when it comes to officiating. You've got to look to finish strong, and not expect a whistle.

    P.S--thanks for explaining your original post
    Last edited by Ace E.Anderson; 03-03-2014 at 08:19 PM.

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    Default Re: Explain to me PER , concerning Lance Stephenson

    Quote Originally Posted by Foul on Smits View Post
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    Lance is averaging 14/7/5 50%fg 35%3pnt. He's a solid if not above average defender. Yet, his PER is only 15. something.
    Unless it has changed, PER doesn't measure D at all. Lance is pretty good there and makes fewer mistakes.

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    Default Re: Explain to me PER , concerning Lance Stephenson

    PER is much better at judging 5 man units. Not individuals.

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    Default Re: Explain to me PER , concerning Lance Stephenson

    Quote Originally Posted by Pacersalltheway10 View Post
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    PER is much better at judging 5 man units. Not individuals.
    You thinking +/-, which is close to useless in terms of individual player evaluation?

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    Default Re: Explain to me PER , concerning Lance Stephenson

    Per is all about how it's going while you are on the floor.
    He spends half his time with a superior bunch of starters...and the other with a bench mob that gets unfortunately pounded most nights.
    So his per is average.

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    The Last Great Pacer BlueNGold's Avatar
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    Default Re: Explain to me PER , concerning Lance Stephenson

    The only PER that's going to matter is how many million PER year he's worth. Once again, stats...

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