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Thread: 3/2/2014 Game Thread #59: Pacers Vs. Jazz

  1. #1
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    Default 3/2/2014 Game Thread #59: Pacers Vs. Jazz

    ROCK THE JAZZ


    -VS-



    Game Time Start: 6:00 PM ET
    Where: The Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
    Officials: S. Foster, T. Brown, J. Orr

    Media Notes: Indiana Notes, Utah Notes
    Television: FOX Sports Indiana / ROOT Sports
    Radio: WFNI 1070 AM, 107.5 FM / KZNS 1280 AM, 97.5 FM and KTUB 1600 AM
    NBA Feeds:

    REMINDER: Per PD policy, please do not share a link to, describe how to search for, request a link to, or request a PM about streaming video of a NBA game that is not coming directly through the NBA. Not even in a "wink-wink, nudge-nudge, know-what-I-mean" round-about sort of way. Thank you


    Season Records: (W-L)
    45-13
    Home: 28-3
    West: 16-7
    21-37
    Away: 7-21
    East: 10-11
    Upcoming Games:
    Mar 04
    Mar 05
    Mar 07
    Mar 09
    vs
    at
    at
    at
    7:00pm
    7:00pm
    9:30pm
    7:30pm

    Projected Starting Lineup:
    HIBBERT
    WEST
    GEORGE
    STEPHENSON
    WATSON
    Projected Starting Lineup:
    FAVORS
    WILLIAMS
    JEFFERSON
    HAYWARD
    BURKE



    PACERS
    Andrew Bynum - stuck X button (out) [H/T Richard_Skull]
    George Hill bruised left shoulder (game time decision)


    JAZZ
    Jeremy Evans - sprained left ankle (game time decision)


    Perpetually Disappointing Trader Joe Minimally Relevant Video:


    Semi-Relevant Video:



    Semi-Relevant Trivia:

    During their 40 years of professional basketball in Utah and New
    Orleans, the Jazz have had nearly 250 players on their rosters
    wear 48 different numbers. How many of those Jazz players have
    had their numbers retired?

    A. 6
    B. 7
    C. 8
    D. 9
    Spoiler Spoiler:


    Counting the Baskets:
    Andrew Johnson: Curse Of The Mid Range Shooter

    (And The Shooting Competence Curve)

    Last October I unveiled my Scoring Versatility Index at Hickory High. The idea at the
    time was to create an index that graded a player's efficiency scoring in a variety of
    ways including from different spots on the court and from the line, with the theory
    that a player efficient from more locations would be harder to guard.

    The immediate problem that I found was that as one carves up the court into smaller
    pieces one creates more data sets with smaller sample sizes, and the less reliable data.
    It is a problem, as I have noted, with the shot chart era in general. Carving up the
    court into pretty pictures can sometimes give us pretty unreliable impressions. Looking
    to account for this has been an interesting challenge and lead me to a few somewhat
    unexpected directions.

    Players with only a few shots from any zone will have averages unreflective of their
    'true' talent level, and, in fact, with three point shots the inherent high variability it
    takes a fairly large number of shots to determine true talent with any confidence.

    Statistics and a couple of assumptions can help us out here. Over a given period
    players will shoot above or below their 'true' ability based solely on random variance
    (compounded, perhaps, by opponent variation, injuries, confidence levels and so on).
    It's a tried and true assumption that after these streaks, over the longer term the
    player's shooting percentage will revert or regress toward their 'true' average, with
    reversion taking longer with a higher variability.

    That leaves open the question of what the player's true shooting ability.

    My assumption also was that a player that rarely takes a three point shot is likely to
    be a 'replacement' level three point shooter rather than an average one. That's
    convenient for estimating the Versatility Index as crediting every player with average
    percentages with few if any shots would not help in measuring difference in scoring
    versatility. When I looked at the data is also happened to be true.

    Using the NBA.com shot zone data I charted each of the NBA's five shot zones with
    each player's shooting percentage against the number of shots taken in that zone. (The
    zones are the restricted area, paint outside of the circle, mid-range, corner three and
    above the break three). For the three jump shooting zones in the mid range and the
    threes the pattern was pronounced, players who shoot more mid range jumpers, for
    example, make them at a higher rate.

    The number of attempts from the mid range conveys two pieces of information, the
    amount of time the player is on the court and the degree of comfort the player and
    his coach have in him shooting in the mid range, ie whether that is one his spots.
    Contrary to some opinions coaches have some idea who their better players are and
    players have some idea where they shoot better. The same is true of corner and
    above the break three point shots.

    Curses and Blessings

    The problem, for mid range shooters, is that even for good mid-range shooters the
    shot isn't terribly efficient. That can be seen in the image below along with the
    increasing expected competence with more attempts via a logarithmic trend line.


    Only the most efficient mid range shooters like Chris Bosh and Dirk Nowitzki approach
    league average efficiency as measured by eFG% (the dotted line) from mid-range.
    Players like Carmelo Anthony, DeMar DeRozen and LaMarcus Aldridge last year were
    fairly good (and liberal) with a not good shot.

    Via Ian Levy's work on Xpps, the average point per shot for mid-range attempt is .793,
    or an eFG% of 39.6%. The competence curve on mid range shots last year indicates
    that players who attempted fifty to sixty mid-range shots were more likely to average
    near 36%, while players with just over 150 attempts the expected competence is closer
    to league average and high volume mid-range shooters the curve rises to only 42% to
    43%.

    In contrast, most of the more prolific shooters of the above the break on the three hit
    for above average efficiency. And we also see the same increasing competence curve,
    leaving players on the right side of the image taking a allot of an efficient shot and
    being pretty good at it...CONTINUE READING AT COUNTING THE BASKETS


    140 Characters of (Non-PD) Coverage

    Pacers
    Candace Buckner @CandaceDBuckner
    Jared Wade @8pts9secs
    Tim Donahue @TimDonahue8p9s
    Tom Lewis @indycornrows
    Ian Levy @HickoryHigh
    Whitney @its_whitney

    Jazz
    Aaron Falk @tribjazz
    Spencer Ryan Hall @saltcityhoops
    SLC Dunk @slcdunk
    Jody Genessy @DJJazzyJody
    Tracy Weissenberg @basketballista
    Amar @AllThatAmar
    Last edited by avoidingtheclowns; 03-02-2014 at 04:13 PM.
    This is the darkest timeline.

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  3. #2

    Default Re: 3/2/2014 Game Thread #59: Pacers Vs. Jazz

    Have to love that small forward match up....

  4. #3

    Default Re: 3/2/2014 Game Thread #59: Pacers Vs. Jazz

    If we win this game, do we go up at all on Miami in the standings since they don't play tonight? We're 2 and a half games up now, so my guess is we win tonight we go up 3 full games?

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    Whale Shepherd cdash's Avatar
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    Default Re: 3/2/2014 Game Thread #59: Pacers Vs. Jazz

    Quote Originally Posted by Grimp View Post
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    If we win this game, do we go up at all on Miami in the standings since they don't play tonight? We're 2 and a half games up now, so my guess is we win tonight we go up 3 full games?
    That is correct.

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    Default Re: 3/2/2014 Game Thread #59: Pacers Vs. Jazz

    I believe we are two games up not two and a half. But otherwise correct. We need to start winning these second half of back to backs.

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    Default Re: 3/2/2014 Game Thread #59: Pacers Vs. Jazz

    I hope hill gets another night off. Really need our guys at 100% for the long haul
    Impossible Is Nothing

  9. #7

    Default Re: 3/2/2014 Game Thread #59: Pacers Vs. Jazz

    Looks like Hill is out, Watson will start again, Turner could play point situationally.

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    Default Re: 3/2/2014 Game Thread #59: Pacers Vs. Jazz

    Quote Originally Posted by Grimp View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    If we win this game, do we go up at all on Miami in the standings since they don't play tonight? We're 2 and a half games up now, so my guess is we win tonight we go up 3 full games?
    When the games are unbalanced like they are, I always just look at the loss column. Currently we have 13 and they have 14, so we are on game ahead in the loss column.

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    PROUD 2 B A PACERS FAN! xtacy's Avatar
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    Default Re: 3/2/2014 Game Thread #59: Pacers Vs. Jazz

    Quote Originally Posted by Grimp View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    If we win this game, do we go up at all on Miami in the standings since they don't play tonight? We're 2 and a half games up now, so my guess is we win tonight we go up 3 full games?
    we are up 2 games now.

  13. #10

    Default Re: 3/2/2014 Game Thread #59: Pacers Vs. Jazz

    Quote Originally Posted by kent beckley View Post
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    When the games are unbalanced like they are, I always just look at the loss column. Currently we have 13 and they have 14, so we are on game ahead in the loss column.
    With a chance to go up 4 in the Win column tonight.

  14. #11
    Can see thru wooden doors dal9's Avatar
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    Default Re: 3/2/2014 Game Thread #59: Pacers Vs. Jazz

    wasnt there some kind of rule that B2Bs cannot be closer than 23 hours together?

  15. #12

    Default Re: 3/2/2014 Game Thread #59: Pacers Vs. Jazz

    Only unless they are against the Pacers. Then they can be 20 minutes apart. The NBA is still punishing the Pacers for not drafting Larry Bird when he was a junior in college.

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    Default Re: 3/2/2014 Game Thread #59: Pacers Vs. Jazz

    I understand this is a balance team but Frank has to learn to just run the offense through PG for periods of time...

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    Default Re: 3/2/2014 Game Thread #59: Pacers Vs. Jazz

    Ugh League Pass being so Terrible

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    Default Re: 3/2/2014 Game Thread #59: Pacers Vs. Jazz

    Run the offense through West and Pg...

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    Default Re: 3/2/2014 Game Thread #59: Pacers Vs. Jazz

    West is feeling it..

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    Member Millertime3131's Avatar
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    Default Re: 3/2/2014 Game Thread #59: Pacers Vs. Jazz

    ..wow

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    Cardiac Colts khaos01207's Avatar
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    Default Re: 3/2/2014 Game Thread #59: Pacers Vs. Jazz

    Oh Ian!
    2013-2014
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  24. #19
    Cardiac Colts khaos01207's Avatar
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    Default Re: 3/2/2014 Game Thread #59: Pacers Vs. Jazz

    That is just so stupid of a rule, he was getting that easily.
    2013-2014
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    Go Colts! Shade's Avatar
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    Default Re: 3/2/2014 Game Thread #59: Pacers Vs. Jazz

    How is that not a clear path?

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    Whale Shepherd cdash's Avatar
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    Default Re: 3/2/2014 Game Thread #59: Pacers Vs. Jazz

    It would be nice if this team even faked having a little bit of energy out there. They just look listless.

  27. #22
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    Default Re: 3/2/2014 Game Thread #59: Pacers Vs. Jazz

    Quote Originally Posted by Shade View Post
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    How is that not a clear path?
    Cause the rule states he must have possession when fouled.
    Just a really dumb rule basically.
    2013-2014
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    Go Colts! Shade's Avatar
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    Default Re: 3/2/2014 Game Thread #59: Pacers Vs. Jazz

    Quote Originally Posted by kent beckley View Post
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    When the games are unbalanced like they are, I always just look at the loss column. Currently we have 13 and they have 14, so we are on game ahead in the loss column.
    Ditto. In my mind, we're only up 1 game on Miami.

  29. #24
    You Did It Joseph!!!! AesopRockOn's Avatar
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    Default Re: 3/2/2014 Game Thread #59: Pacers Vs. Jazz

    Other than the missed free throw, I love Ian today, but a second foul would be his undoing. Stay lucky out there, Mr. Mahinmi!

    Edit: ****!!!

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    Default Re: 3/2/2014 Game Thread #59: Pacers Vs. Jazz

    Damn PG, that's more like it!
    2013-2014
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