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Thread: 3/1/2014 Game Thread #58: Pacers Vs. Celtics

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    Default 3/1/2014 Game Thread #58: Pacers Vs. Celtics

    MAKE THE GREEN
    BLACK AND BLUE


    -VS-



    Game Time Start: 8:00 PM ET
    Where: TD Garden, Boston, MA
    Officials: M. Callahan, K. Lane, M. Smith

    Media Notes: Indiana Notes, Boston Notes
    Television: FOX Sports Indiana / Comcast SportsNet New England
    Radio: WFNI 1070 AM, 107.5 FM / WBZ 98.5 FM
    NBA Feeds:

    REMINDER: Per PD policy, please do not share a link to, describe how to search for, request a link to, or request a PM about streaming video of a NBA game that is not coming directly through the NBA. Not even in a "wink-wink, nudge-nudge, know-what-I-mean" round-about sort of way. Thank you


    Season Records: (W-L)
    44-13
    Away: 16-10
    East: 28-6
    20-39
    Home: 12-17
    East: 16-17
    Upcoming Games:
    Mar 02
    Mar 04
    Mar 05
    Mar 07
    vs
    vs
    at
    at
    6:00pm
    7:00pm
    7:00pm
    9:30pm

    Projected Starting Lineup:
    HIBBERT
    WEST
    GEORGE
    STEPHENSON
    WATSON
    Projected Starting Lineup:
    BASS
    HUMPHRIES
    GREEN
    BAYLESS
    RONDO



    PACERS
    Andrew Bynum - stuck X button (out) [H/T Richard_Skull]
    George Hill – bruised left shoulder (out)


    CELTICS
    Avery Bradley - sore right ankle (out)
    Vitor Faverani - sore left knee (out)
    Kelly Olynyk - sprained left toe (out)
    Jared Sullinger - mild concussion (questionable)
    Gerald Wallace - torn meniscus left knee (out)


    Perpetually Disappointing Trader Joe Minimally Relevant Video:


    Semi-Relevant Video:



    Semi-Relevant Trivia:

    The Boston Celtics have had 31 Hall of Fame inductees on their
    rosters, including the recently enshrined Gary Payton. What is
    the most Hall of Fame members compiled on a single team for
    the Celtics during their 68 seasons of professional basketball?

    A. 5
    B. 6
    C. 7
    D. 8
    Spoiler Spoiler:


    Hardwood Paroxysm:
    Andrew Lynch: Across Space and Time

    40 Years of League Average-Adjusted Efficiency for Every Team

    Defense wins championships. So does offense, but that’s not the cliche. It’s defense that
    puts great teams over the top and turns the elite into the immortal. And the numbers
    bear that out — in the last 10 years, every team that made the NBA Finals had an above
    average defense.

    Not all championship defenses are created equal, however. Pop quiz! Which defense was
    better: the 2011 Dallas Mavericks, or the 2013 Miami Heat?

    A quick perusal of your favorite statistical website provides an easy answer. It’s the
    Heat, of course! In 2013, Miami allowed 103.7 points per 100 possessions, via
    Basketball-Reference; the 2011 Mavericks, on the other hand, had a defensive rating of
    105.0. 103.7 is less than 105 (MATH!). The Heat win.

    It’s not quite that simple, however. Each season is an entity unto itself, and a year-to-
    year comparison can be a difficult prospect as a result. The further separated in time
    the respective season, the more odious the task. There’s a litany of reasons for such
    compartmentalization, but the commonality is change. Teams change across the board,
    from rosters to ownership and everything in between. And the league changes, too.
    Different rules come into vogue as others slip into history. Different points of emphases
    take their place in any given year. Different strategies and tactics take route, as
    defenses become more sophisticated and offenses adjust their shot selection and means
    to such ends. Sum the variables and every season represents a different scoring
    climate, where no two numbers are similar — no matter that they might be the same.

    Back to those championship teams. In 2013, the average NBA team scored and allowed
    105.8 pts per 100 possessions. In 2011, that number was significantly higher (107.3).
    So was Miami really the better defensive team? Their raw defensive rating was lower,
    sure, but it came in a league that was less conducive to the ball going through the rim.
    Fortunately, we can use the average rating* in each year to figure out just how much
    better each team was relative to the environment in which they played.

    *Since everything sums to zero with 30 teams, the “average” team has the same
    offensive and defensive ratings. Any references to “average rating” is this league
    average for both offense and defense in the specified year.


    Simple subtraction would get you one number, but a more accurate representation of
    the distance from the middle of the pack would be a percentage. And that’s just as
    easily calculated; we simply take the raw individual team defensive rating, divide it
    by the league average for that specific year, and multiply the result by 100. The
    product is a defensive efficiency number that’s adjusted to the league average for the
    season in which the team played. It measures what percentage of the league average
    scoring a team allowed; the lower the number, the better.

    Take that 2013 Miami Heat team. They allowed teams to score 97.92% of the league
    average points per 100 possessions. The 2011 Mavericks, conversely, gave up 97.86%
    of the league average. The raw numbers, then, which indicated a clear advantage for
    Miami, were misleading. When we account for the context of each season the 2011
    Dallas Mavericks had a slightly better season defensively than the 2013 Heat did.

    The same can be done for offense, too, of course, except in that case, the higher the
    number, the better. In a nutshell, this is what I’m calling ORtg+ and DRtg+, shorthand
    for “league-average normalized offensive/defensive rating.” It’s a concept that’s long
    been around in baseball, and it’s existed in spreadsheets and APBRMetrics forum
    threads for ages. But it’s generally not recognized on a larger scale, and I think that’s
    largely because there is no searchable database for these numbers.

    That problem is fixed. Basketball-Reference has offensive and defensive rating
    numbers for each team going back to 1973-74, and they have the league average for
    each season as well. I pulled all of that data to come up with ORtg+ and DRtg+
    numbers for each team in each season going back that far. The spreadsheet is available
    here
    ; you can sort it by season, individual year/team combinations (i.e. the 2011-12
    Charlotte Bobcats), franchise histories (sorry, Sonics fans, but the Sonics are labeled
    “Thunder” here), raw offensive and defensive ratings, adjusted offensive and
    defensive ratings, adjusted net rating (a simple subtraction of DRrtg+ from ORtg+),
    teams that made the Finals, and parameters for the last 20 or last 10 completed NBA
    seasons.

    Which is fun! The data in a spreadsheet is revealing in a lot of ways. But it doesn’t
    quite do the scale of this project justice. Luckily for me, all-around blogging superstar
    Ian Levy is a wunderkind with the visualization software Tableau, and he put together
    this fun little chart:



    Those dots represent the 1,073 individual team/season combinations in the dataset.
    The y-axis is DRtg+; better defenses are to the bottom, worse defenses to the top. The
    x-axis is ORtg+; better offenses to the right, worse offenses to the left. Quadrant IV, in
    the lower right, is where all the best teams hang out — good defense, good offense. And
    squares represent teams that made the NBA Finals.

    The visualization is also sortable by Franchise, ranges of ORtg+ and DRtg+, individual
    team/season combinations (tip: hover over the title bar in that checklist that says
    “Specific Team and Season” to reveal a toolbar with a search option to more readily
    find individual combinations — the format is “City Team – Year”), and specific seasons.
    And they can be combined...CONTINUE READING AT HARDWOOD PAROXYSM


    140 Characters of (Non-PD) Coverage

    Pacers
    Candace Buckner @CandaceDBuckner
    Jared Wade @8pts9secs
    Tim Donahue @TimDonahue8p9s
    Tom Lewis @indycornrows
    Ian Levy @HickoryHigh
    Whitney @its_whitney

    Celtics
    Gary Washburn @GwashburnGlobe
    Chris Forsberg @ESPNForsberg
    Jeff Clark @celticsblog
    John Karalis @RedsArmy_John
    Tom Westerholm @Tom_NBA
    Chuck M. @RedsArmy_Chuck
    Last edited by avoidingtheclowns; 03-02-2014 at 05:13 PM.
    This is the darkest timeline.

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    thx4tehmRys Danny! daschysta's Avatar
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    Default Re: 3/1/2013 Game Thread #58: Pacers Vs. Celtics

    That spreadsheet is amazing. By adjusted DRTG (DRTG+ on the spread sheet) we currently are the best defense since 1973, slightly ahead of the 03 04 spurs. 21st overall in netrtg+, and smash all other Pacerz teams in both categories.
    Goodbye Captain, My Captain. I wish you had the chance to sink or swim with your ship on its quest for the "ship".

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    Default Re: 3/1/2013 Game Thread #58: Pacers Vs. Celtics

    I am looking to see if we can play top level defense for the entire game. Miami seems to be rounding into form. I am hoping Indiana can start putting inferior opponents out of their misery like the Heat seem to be doing lately.

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    thx4tehmRys Danny! daschysta's Avatar
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    Default Re: 3/1/2013 Game Thread #58: Pacers Vs. Celtics

    Even mighty Miami recently has a 7 pt. Win vs LaL, a 6 point win vs Detroit, a 5 point loss vs. Utah and a 7 pt. Win over Boston recently. No team blows out bad teams every night, and most elite teams don't go all out on weak teams all the time, it wastes energy and isn't necessary for 48 minutes. Teams never play the milwaukees of the world as hard as they do us or Miami.
    Goodbye Captain, My Captain. I wish you had the chance to sink or swim with your ship on its quest for the "ship".

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    FREE LANCE MillerTime's Avatar
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    Default Re: 3/1/2013 Game Thread #58: Pacers Vs. Celtics

    I feel sorry for Bayless tonight. I have a feeling he's going to get abused by Lance tonight
    "So, which one of you guys is going to come in second?" - Larry Bird before the 3 point contest. He won.



  9. #6

    Default Re: 3/1/2013 Game Thread #58: Pacers Vs. Celtics

    I hope we see a....


    Cope
    Butler
    Ian
    Turner
    Sloan



    Bench tonight. Wishful thinking.

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  11. #7

    Default Re: 3/1/2013 Game Thread #58: Pacers Vs. Celtics

    They just showed how any C's are injured tonight. These games always scare me!

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    Big Daddy PaulGeorgeHill's Avatar
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    Default Re: 3/1/2013 Game Thread #58: Pacers Vs. Celtics

    Hopefully rondo doesn't use this game to prove to Pacers Digest just how good George Hill is at defense


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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    Default Re: 3/1/2013 Game Thread #58: Pacers Vs. Celtics

    Quote Originally Posted by Grimp View Post
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    I hope we see a....


    Cope
    Butler
    Ian
    Turner
    Sloan



    Bench tonight. Wishful thinking.
    I don't see that happening. I just hope we get to see more then 20 minutes of Turner tonight with Hill out. I expect to see a similar rotation to our last game with Watson and Sloan plugged in for Hill and Watson. Lance will likely get 40+ minutes again. I'd prefer a slightly different rotation but I don't expect Vogel to change much.

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    Default Re: 3/1/2013 Game Thread #58: Pacers Vs. Celtics

    Quote Originally Posted by daschysta View Post
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    Even mighty Miami recently has a 7 pt. Win vs LaL, a 6 point win vs Detroit, a 5 point loss vs. Utah and a 7 pt. Win over Boston recently. No team blows out bad teams every night, and most elite teams don't go all out on weak teams all the time, it wastes energy and isn't necessary for 48 minutes. Teams never play the milwaukees of the world as hard as they do us or Miami.
    So you would not concede Miami has looked pretty darn good lately while we haven't been playing our best?

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    Default Re: 3/1/2013 Game Thread #58: Pacers Vs. Celtics


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    Default Re: 3/1/2013 Game Thread #58: Pacers Vs. Celtics

    Quote Originally Posted by Pacerized View Post
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    I don't see that happening. I just hope we get to see more then 20 minutes of Turner tonight with Hill out. I expect to see a similar rotation to our last game with Watson and Sloan plugged in for Hill and Watson. Lance will likely get 40+ minutes again. I'd prefer a slightly different rotation but I don't expect Vogel to change much.
    Yeah, Vogel is really burning out our spark plug. If we are far enough ahead of Miami come 3 games left, I'd say sit Lance. But our second to last game of the season is at home vs. OKC.

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    Default Re: 3/1/2013 Game Thread #58: Pacers Vs. Celtics

    HIBBERT! DUDE!

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    Default Re: 3/1/2013 Game Thread #58: Pacers Vs. Celtics

    Had to laugh when Roy threw the ex-Kardashian to the ground there.

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    Default Re: 3/1/2013 Game Thread #58: Pacers Vs. Celtics

    West, hold Bass.

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    Biggest Pacer Fan PacersForever's Avatar
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    Default Re: 3/1/2013 Game Thread #58: Pacers Vs. Celtics

    THIS TEAM IS SO BEAUTIFUL TO WATCH WITHOUT THE BALL HOG. ALL THE POINTS IN THE FRONT COURT, NO TURNOVERS !!!!!! JUST I PERCEIVED !!

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    The Chef! boombaby1987's Avatar
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    Default Re: 3/1/2013 Game Thread #58: Pacers Vs. Celtics

    Rondo carried it pretty blatantly before his dribble move.
    @qandrews9428

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    Biggest Pacer Fan PacersForever's Avatar
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    Default Re: 3/1/2013 Game Thread #58: Pacers Vs. Celtics

    SUCH A BEAUTIFUL OFFENCE !

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    The Chef! boombaby1987's Avatar
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    Default Re: 3/1/2013 Game Thread #58: Pacers Vs. Celtics

    Quote Originally Posted by PacersForever View Post
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    THIS TEAM IS SO BEAUTIFUL TO WATCH WITHOUT THE BALL HOG. ALL THE POINTS IN THE FRONT COURT, NO TURNOVERS !!!!!! JUST I PERCEIVED !!
    Who's the Ball Hog?
    @qandrews9428

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    Default Re: 3/1/2013 Game Thread #58: Pacers Vs. Celtics

    Paul looks locked in on both ends. He is not trying to do pretty stuff, just really focused. This is a great sign.

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    Default Re: 3/1/2013 Game Thread #58: Pacers Vs. Celtics

    Quote Originally Posted by boombaby1987 View Post
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    Who's the Ball Hog?
    I assume he means Hill, although I disagree with the assertion.

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    All Hail CJ Watson! Nuntius's Avatar
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    Default Re: 3/1/2013 Game Thread #58: Pacers Vs. Celtics

    Quote Originally Posted by joew8302 View Post
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    So you would not concede Miami has looked pretty darn good lately while we haven't been playing our best?
    I'd say that they are playing better than us lately but the difference is not as big as some people want to believe. We're 7-3 in our last 10 and they are 9-1 in their last 10. That's all there is to it.
    Tonight, all flags must burn, in place of steeples.
    Autonomy must return into the hands of the people.

    Panopticon

    -------------

    CJ Watson - 20 points on 6/10 shooting!

    13/4/2014

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    Default Re: 3/1/2013 Game Thread #58: Pacers Vs. Celtics

    Quote Originally Posted by boombaby1987 View Post
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    Who's the Ball Hog?
    OJ

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    Biggest Pacer Fan PacersForever's Avatar
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    Default Re: 3/1/2013 Game Thread #58: Pacers Vs. Celtics

    I really hope everyone is watching and enjoying this ****ing amazing ball movement !

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    You Did It Joseph!!!! AesopRockOn's Avatar
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    Default Re: 3/1/2013 Game Thread #58: Pacers Vs. Celtics

    Sometimes it seems like we just forget to substitute anyone into the game. All starters in past the 9-minute mark.

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