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Thread: Super Bowl Thread

  1. #376
    Member Since86's Avatar
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    Default Re: Super Bowl Thread

    The issue isn't strength of opponents. The issue is saying Peyton is the reason why the Colts lost in the playoffs and Tom is the reason why the Pats won, when their statistically similiar. Logic would lead someone to conclude that the difference in their record, when their stats are so similiar, is due to the difference in their teams rather than the difference in their individual play.

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  3. #377

    Default Re: Super Bowl Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    When comparing Manning and Brady's playoff stats, it's important to keep this in mind:

    Brady has played in 26 playoff games. 8 of those games have been in the Conference Championship round, and 5 of them of been the Super Bowl. So half of Brady's playoff games have been in either the AFCCG or Super Bowl, i.e. the highest level of competition. It's fair to assume that New England regularly advancing so far in the playoffs has taken a bit of a ding on Brady's playoff stats since he is so often playing against the best of the best. Brady has only played in 3 Wild Card games in his entire career.

    Conversely, Manning has played 23 playoff games, 4 of which were Conference Championships and 3 of which were Super Bowls. So only roughly 30% of Manning's career playoff games have been in the AFCCG or Super Bowl (7/23), compared to 50% for Brady. Also, Manning has 7 Wild Card games compared to just 3 for Brady. Logically, a wild card opponent is going to be weaker than an AFCCG opponent in any given year. Manning has pretty good stats in those 7 wild card games (102 passer rating). For instance, Manning was able to really pad his stats against the Broncos in the 2003 and 2004 wild card rounds. Well, Brady was just sitting at home that week since the Pats were on a bye.

    So yeah, their overall playoff stats are pretty close, but a higher percentage of Brady's playoff games have been played deep into the playoffs against the best of teams.
    I posted this a few months back and wish I could find it easily, but I took a look at defenses they had to play during the playoffs and found that Manning's were actually slightly harder. There was some correlation between advancing and the defenses getting harder IIRC, but it wasn't that strong, and it wasn't enough to overcome that Manning has just ran into a bunch of very hard defenses over the years. I think that the assumption wasn't wrong per se, but the numbers didn't bear it out in this case.

  4. #378

    Default Re: Super Bowl Thread

    I just did a comparison of scoring defenses faced by Peyton in 1st round losses vs. first round wins and found no difference:

    Scoring defense of the teams who have defeated Peyton Manning’s team in the first round:
    15
    3
    14
    3
    5
    15
    6
    12
    Average rank = 9.125


    Scoring defense of the teams who have lost to Peyton Manning’s team in the first round:
    9
    9
    11
    3
    11
    Average rank = 8.6


    I didn't do yards allowed, even though that is more often followed, because I think points allowed is way more meaningful
    The poster "pacertom" since this forum began (and before!). I changed my name here to "Slick Pinkham" in honor of the imaginary player That Bobby "Slick" Leonard picked late in the 1971 ABA draft (true story!)

  5. #379
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    Default Re: Super Bowl Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Cubs231721 View Post
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    I posted this a few months back and wish I could find it easily, but I took a look at defenses they had to play during the playoffs and found that Manning's were actually slightly harder. There was some correlation between advancing and the defenses getting harder IIRC, but it wasn't that strong, and it wasn't enough to overcome that Manning has just ran into a bunch of very hard defenses over the years. I think that the assumption wasn't wrong per se, but the numbers didn't bear it out in this case.

    I think I remember when you posted those stats. The problem with the defensive stats is that sometimes the regular season defensive rankings aren't relevant to how good a defense actually is when the playoffs roll around. Take the 2011 Giants for example. In the regular season, their defense was ranked a putrid 25th in the regular season by points allowed (25 per game). But once the playoffs rolled around, they got healthy and all of the sudden played like an elite defense. They held the Falcons to just 2 points, the 15-1 Aaron Rodgers 45 TD Packers to 20 points, the Niners to 17 points in OT, and the Brady led Pats to 17 points. That is a pretty damn great 14 PPG, which would have ranked them as the best defense in the NFL if they held that average for an entire season. So technically Brady lost the Super Bowl to just the 25th ranked defense in the league that season, but in reality he was really losing to a defense that played like the best in the league for a month.

    The 2012 Ravens are another good example. In the regular season (tied for 12th), they weren't as elite as they had been in prior years because of injuries, but then they got healthy and went on the roll in the playoffs. They held the Colts to 9 points, the Broncos' offense to 21 (14 of Denver's 35 points came from kicks returned for touchdowns), and the Pats to 13. That's playing like an elite defense.

    Sometimes you have a defense that is the best from the start of the regular season to the end of the playoffs like the 2013 Seahawks. Other times you have teams like the 2011 Giants and 2012 Ravens who get healthy at the end of the year and play like a completely different defense come playoff time. Thus, I think that the regular season rankings only have so much value. I do think there is something to be said about a Conference Championship game or Super Bowl generally being more difficult than a Wild Card game. With each passing round, the pressure is tightened and the competition generally gets kicked up a notch. Even though Brady and Manning have very similar overall postseason stats, I think you have to factor in the fact that half of Brady's playoff games have either been the AFCCG or Super Bowl, whereas it's only 30% for Manning. Manning OTOH has played in 7 wild card games to Brady's 3. Peyton has played in as many Wild Card games (7) as Super Bowls and AFCCG games combined, so that 102 passer rating that he has in those 7 wild card games definitely helps his stats out a bit.

    Manning Wild Card/Super Bowl + AFCCG ratio: 7/7 = 1
    Brady Wild Card/Super Bowl + AFCCG ratio: 3/13 = 0.23
    Last edited by Sollozzo; 02-07-2014 at 10:55 AM.

  6. #380
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    Default Re: Super Bowl Thread

    What I find interesting is that Brady and Manning started out at a combined 4-0 in Super Bowls, but now have lost 4 straight combined. Both of them have some pretty haunting late career Super Bowl losses.

  7. #381
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    Default Re: Super Bowl Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    What I find interesting is that Brady and Manning started out at a combined 4-0 in Super Bowls, but now have lost 4 straight combined. Both of them have some pretty haunting late career Super Bowl losses.
    Changing of the guard.

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