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Thread: Peyton Manning's legacy if Denver wins SB XLVIII

  1. #51

    Default Re: Peyton Manning's legacy if Denver wins SB XLVIII

    If you have the better overall team, you win, in the Manning-Brady games.

    If you have the better overall team and you are Peyton Manning, and if you are playing anyone at all in the first round of the NFL playoffs, history shows that your team will most often lose.

    Why this is the case is mystifying and is the source of the debate. Sample size? Hard to get much bigger sample sizes than playing 22+ playoff games.
    Last edited by Slick Pinkham; 01-30-2014 at 12:11 PM.
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  3. #52
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    Default Re: Peyton Manning's legacy if Denver wins SB XLVIII

    It's mystifying because the standard keeps moving around.

    How do you make the judgement that the Colts teams were better than their opponents? I'm assuming because they had the better record, but I also think you'd admit that teams with better records aren't necessarily the better team. Colts fans had been complaining for years that the Colts regular season records were a mirage, that their style of play wasn't conducive to winning playoff style football.

    A defense that can't stop the run, who gives up major yardage, and an offense that is one dimensional always struggles in the playoffs, regardless if the have PM behind center or not. It's a reason why I argued that maybe a better option with Luck was to take the lesser QB with the extra draft picks to build a more complete team.
    Last edited by Since86; 01-30-2014 at 12:32 PM.
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    Default Re: Peyton Manning's legacy if Denver wins SB XLVIII

    Quote Originally Posted by PacerDude View Post
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    That game was lost becuase Nick Harper's wife/girlfriend/whomever stabbed him in the leg a few days before the game. If he gets by Rothlesbergerbasdfnhkjasfbger - he's gone for 6.
    If the game started on that one play, then I'd agree with you. But before that play, there was four quarters worth of the Steelers defense owning the Colts offense. It took a BOGUS overturned interception and an uncharacteristic flukey Bettis fumble for the Colts to even have a chance. It should have never gotten to a point where we blamed Harper's gimpy stick and Vandy's hideous shank. It took a couple of unbelievable breaks for the Colts to even have a chance, so the Harper and Vandershank happenings simply evened things out a bit.

    If we would have somehow pulled that game out and went on to win the Super Bowl, it would have easily been one of the most tarnished championships in NFL history. That Polamalloualoualou overturned interception was one of the most bogus things ever and everyone would have been saying that the league was trying to fix the game so that Peyton would get a ring.
    Last edited by Sollozzo; 01-30-2014 at 01:01 PM.

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  6. #54
    Jimmy did what Jimmy did Bball's Avatar
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    Default Re: Peyton Manning's legacy if Denver wins SB XLVIII

    I think Peyton has choked, come up short, went for the hero ball, etc. too much in playoff games and that has impacted the playoff record and one and dones. BUT part of the reason that has happened was the tremendous amount of pressure that was put on Manning and the offense by IMHO an absolutely hideous team philosophy of utilizing an undersized, under-talented defense that was allegedly built for playing with the lead. But a symptom of that was it was NOT built to stop the run nor could it keep the other team from playing possession football and keep Manning on the bench. The philosophy was so bad and so tipped towards the idea they could play the pass and t off on the opposing QB that it became simple for opposing teams to simply take advantage of that defense. Even trailing on the scoreboard they didn't have to play the game the Colts wanted (and apparently expected). Opponents could simply stick with a possession type of game and smash the ball down the throat of the Colts and force the offense to be flawless due to their lack of possession time. And they could easily attack the flaws in that defensive system.

    Of course the playoffs by their very nature mean you're playing the better teams in the game. Teams that can execute gameplans built to take advantage of your weaknesses. And when one weakness is a defense that by its design funnels the opposing offense into the perfect gameplan to beat your offense then things are pretty questionable with coaching and management. Meanwhile, their defense can focus on what it thinks it needs to do to force Manning into mistakes or take away his options. Just play as well as possible and hope for the pressure of the situation (forcing the Colts to work with limited time of possession) to cause mistakes in an offense that otherwise needs to be near perfect due to the situation.

    So Manning came up short in the playoffs too much. But he had a lot of help with that and an arrogant FO that refused to address the real issues that led to that.
    Last edited by Bball; 01-30-2014 at 01:38 PM.
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  8. #55
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    Default Re: Peyton Manning's legacy if Denver wins SB XLVIII

    I just do not think you can blame most of these losses on Manning. They were just bad breaks as I have explained earlier.
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    Default Re: Peyton Manning's legacy if Denver wins SB XLVIII

    Good writeup Bball.

    The only thing I'd add is the underlying question. Do you blame Peyton for not being able to carry that much weight or do you blame the FO for putting that much weight on his shoulders? I blame the FO mostly. There are specific instances where we can point to and say that's all Peyton, but when the same thing happens over and over again, and the FO doesn't change anything structurally with the team, it starts being an issue about a bullheaded FO rather than an underperforming QB.
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  11. #57

    Default Re: Peyton Manning's legacy if Denver wins SB XLVIII

    Quote Originally Posted by Slick Pinkham View Post
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    If you have the better overall team, you win, in the Manning-Brady games.

    If you have the better overall team and you are Peyton Manning, and if you are playing anyone at all in the first round of the NFL playoffs, history shows that your team will most often lose.

    Why this is the case is mystifying and is the source of the debate. Sample size? Hard to get much bigger sample sizes than playing 22+ playoff games.
    Well if that were the case then don't you think Brady could've beaten Lil Manning in one of those Super Bowls especially the first one... I mean the Patriots were the better team just not when it counted apparently. So Eli Manning must be better than Tom Brady eh?

    Besides the last team that had the best record to win it all were the 2003 Patriots

    2004 Steelers- Lost AFC Championship game
    2005 Colts- Lost Divisional round
    2006 Chargers- Lost Divisional Round
    2007 Patriots- Lost SB
    2008 Titans - Lost divisional round
    2009- Colts- Lost SB
    2010 Patriots- Lost divisional round
    2011- Packers Lost Divisional Round
    2012 Broncos- Lost Divisional Round

    Now in 2013 Seattle and Denver are both with the same record. Its the rare case where the two best teams survived for the ultimate prize however it rarely happens in the NFL these days due to turnover and well a one and done format its not always the best team but who's good on that day.

  12. #58

    Default Re: Peyton Manning's legacy if Denver wins SB XLVIII

    People really seem to underscore the importance of Coaching in playoff success. How many one and dones were the result of the idiotic resting of starters. Or idiot coaching calling timeout for the other team.

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  14. #59

    Default Re: Peyton Manning's legacy if Denver wins SB XLVIII

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    Good writeup Bball.

    The only thing I'd add is the underlying question. Do you blame Peyton for not being able to carry that much weight or do you blame the FO for putting that much weight on his shoulders? I blame the FO mostly. There are specific instances where we can point to and say that's all Peyton, but when the same thing happens over and over again, and the FO doesn't change anything structurally with the team, it starts being an issue about a bullheaded FO rather than an underperforming QB.

    That's what I felt when I saw Andrew in the Pats game it felt like I was transported back in time yes we had injuries but these Patriots weren't exactly dominant either(although at home they seem to be)

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    Default Re: Peyton Manning's legacy if Denver wins SB XLVIII

    Quote Originally Posted by Basketball Fan View Post
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    2004 Steelers- Lost AFC Championship game
    2005 Colts- Lost Divisional round
    2006 Chargers- Lost Divisional Round
    2007 Patriots- Lost SB
    2008 Titans - Lost divisional round
    2009- Colts- Lost SB
    2010 Patriots- Lost divisional round
    2011- Packers Lost Divisional Round
    2012 Broncos- Lost Divisional Round
    Eight of those teams were consistently good. One of them was a bizarre one hit wonder. Yes, I'm talking about that 2008 Titans team that went 13-3 with Kerry Collins as their starting quarterback. They started out at 10-0 that year. That has to be the flukiest 13 win team in NFL history.

  16. #61

    Default Re: Peyton Manning's legacy if Denver wins SB XLVIII

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    Eight of those teams were consistently good. One of them was a bizarre one hit wonder. Yes, I'm talking about that 2008 Titans team that went 13-3 with Kerry Collins as their starting quarterback. They started out at 10-0 that year. That has to be the flukiest 13 win team in NFL history.
    Maybe so but they were the best team that year but they didn't win it all. Regular season success doesn't always equal postseason success is my point when the postseason begins they are all 0-0.

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    Default Re: Peyton Manning's legacy if Denver wins SB XLVIII

    Quote Originally Posted by Basketball Fan View Post
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    That's what I felt when I saw Andrew in the Pats game it felt like I was transported back in time yes we had injuries but these Patriots weren't exactly dominant either(although at home they seem to be)
    But Luck was just a second year player when we played this game, and he was playing with an inferior set of weapons compared to what Peyton had in his two trips to Foxboro. I felt way worse back in the Manning era when we were losing those games in the prime of his career. True, these Pats had their own injury issues and weren't quite the Pats of old, but they were still 8-0 at home this season, plus it was Brady/Belichick in Foxboro. There is definitely a reason that they have only lost two playoff games up there during the Brady/Belichick era.

    Luck's offense scored more points in Foxboro (22 - 2 for the safety = 20) than Manning did in his two trips there COMBINED (14 and 3).

    The lesson we learned after this most recent loss to the Pats is that we must try to get home field next year. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I seem to remember reading that the Colts would have had the tiebreaker over the Pats if both had finished 12-4? Regardless, next year we play them in Indy and will have a golden opportunity in that game. The 43-22 score implies a blowout, but that was a far closer game than the score says. We have plenty of positives to take into next season. For starters, we actually forced them to punt quite a bit and had our chances. Luck threw 4 picks, but I only thought 2 of them were really bad. The first one was obviously a bad error on his part, but the second one was all on Havili. It wasn't a great throw by Luck, but get out of the NFL if you cant real that catch in. We had been putting a drive together there. The third one was on Luck, but the fourth one was in garbage time and essentially meaningless, IIRC.

  18. #63
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    Default Re: Peyton Manning's legacy if Denver wins SB XLVIII

    Here's an impressive Manning stat:

    He has made the Super Bowl in 3 of his last 7 seasons.

  19. #64

    Default Re: Peyton Manning's legacy if Denver wins SB XLVIII

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    But Luck was just a second year player when we played this game, and he was playing with an inferior set of weapons compared to what Peyton had in his two trips to Foxboro. I felt way worse back in the Manning era when we were losing those games in the prime of his career. True, these Pats had their own injury issues and weren't quite the Pats of old, but they were still 8-0 at home this season, plus it was Brady/Belichick in Foxboro. There is definitely a reason that they have only lost two playoff games up there during the Brady/Belichick era.

    Luck's offense scored more points in Foxboro (22 - 2 for the safety = 20) than Manning did in his two trips there COMBINED (14 and 3).

    The lesson we learned after this most recent loss to the Pats is that we must try to get home field next year. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I seem to remember reading that the Colts would have had the tiebreaker over the Pats if both had finished 12-4? Regardless, next year we play them in Indy and will have a golden opportunity in that game. The 43-22 score implies a blowout, but that was a far closer game than the score says. We have plenty of positives to take into next season. For starters, we actually forced them to punt quite a bit and had our chances. Luck threw 4 picks, but I only thought 2 of them were really bad. The first one was obviously a bad error on his part, but the second one was all on Havili. It wasn't a great throw by Luck, but get out of the NFL if you cant real that catch in. We had been putting a drive together there. The third one was on Luck, but the fourth one was in garbage time and essentially meaningless, IIRC.

    My point is in the end this team lives and dies by the QB whether its Luck or Manning in the year we did win the SB the team didn't live and die by Manning in the postseason they stepped up when Manning was less than stellar. While I didn't think we'd beat the Pats for days we kept hearing how Luck was going to take the torch from Brady etc and yet the opposite happened. Showed that Luck isn't really ready just yet.

    Watching that Pats game seeing Luck throw picks in inclement weather and our WRs get manhandled was like watching those games in Foxboro all over again. Same script different cast.

    I wonder if Irsay actually sees this I hope he does.

  20. #65
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    Default Re: Peyton Manning's legacy if Denver wins SB XLVIII

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    Good writeup Bball.

    The only thing I'd add is the underlying question. Do you blame Peyton for not being able to carry that much weight or do you blame the FO for putting that much weight on his shoulders? I blame the FO mostly. There are specific instances where we can point to and say that's all Peyton, but when the same thing happens over and over again, and the FO doesn't change anything structurally with the team, it starts being an issue about a bullheaded FO rather than an underperforming QB.
    A Manning (or offense) mistake might not have mattered so much if the team could regularly get an opposing offense off the field a few times in a game and get the offense the ball back. When one team dominates time of possession and runs the ball down your throat it places a lot of importance on not only every single possession you do get, but also every single play. Mistakes are magnified in those circumstances. It's also demoralizing for the defense which generally doesn't help.

    So, I totally agree it's hard to fault Manning 100% considering his obvious mastery of the position when there are other flaws outside of his control at play.

    OTOH, I find it easy to fault the FO for doing more to basically maximize Manning's stats than actually surround him with a team that could've done so much more during the Manning era. They took a flawed philosophy, allowed it to be exploited, and then didn't bother acknowledging the flaws and addressing them and giving Manning a better team that didn't require him to basically be better than the best most games.
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  22. #66

    Default Re: Peyton Manning's legacy if Denver wins SB XLVIII

    I have yet to see a better write up of the Manning losses than this which adds gifs to illustrate some of his points.

    http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com...or-help/20868/

    The 2000 loss to Miami

    Coach Jim Mora’s last chance for a playoff win (he went 0-6) may have been his best shot. Teams leading by exactly 14 points at halftime are 37-3 (.925) in playoff history, but here is the first loss. The Colts led 14-0 in Miami at halftime, but the lead should have been even bigger:

    • Instead of kicking a 45-yard field goal, the Colts tried a fake that lost six yards on fourth down. There’s three points.
    • On 3rd-and-goal at the MIA 8, Manning had Pathon wide open for a touchdown, a game announcer even called touchdown, but Pathon dropped it. There’s four more points.
    • After Miami scored a touchdown in the third quarter, Harrison dropped a pass on 3rd-and-2 at midfield.
    • Manning had a 38-yard pass to Harrison in the fourth quarter, but it was wiped out with Harrison’s offensive pass interference.

    Mike Vanderjagt kicked a 50-yard field goal, giving the Colts a 17-10 lead with 4:55 to play. But when the defense had to stop Jay Fiedler from driving Miami 80 yards, it failed. Fiedler threw a 9-yard touchdown on third down to tie the game with 0:34 to play.

    Mike Vanderjagt kicked a 50-yard field goal, giving the Colts a 17-10 lead with 4:55 to play. But when the defense had to stop Jay Fiedler from driving Miami 80 yards, it failed. Fiedler threw a 9-yard touchdown on third down to tie the game with 0:34 to play.

    Manning handed off to James for a 3-yard gain, and let the clock expire for overtime. Miami punted, and Manning came out with a 30-yard pass to Harrison. On a 3rd-and-12 at the MIA 42, Manning threw to Harrison for 11 yards, but the Dolphins were offsides. Rather than replay the down with a 3rd-and-7 attempt, Vanderjagt had convinced Mora he could make the kick, so they sent out the kicking team.

    Vanderjagt’s 49-yard attempt, after previously making from 50, was embarrassingly wide right.
    This was before the days of high-definition television, but here’s a marker for where the ball landed. You could tell immediately it was wide right.

    Manning never touched the ball again. The Dolphins went 61 yards for the game-winning touchdown, with Lamar Smith taking it 17 yards to the end zone. Smith finished with 40 carries (playoff record) for 209 yards, which are the second most yards in playoff history.
    Thats just one game and it shows you the detail of the TEAM failures which is why I put a ton of blame on the coaches, the wr's and the defense.

    Bottom line: If Tom Brady had Jim Mora and David Caldwell as his head coaches for 5 years of his career I bet his playoff record would closely resemble Mannings.

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  24. #67

    Default Re: Peyton Manning's legacy if Denver wins SB XLVIII

    I think it would be worse considering the kicker.

    That being said Brady is a better QB now than when he actually won his SB's go figure.

  25. #68
    Jimmy did what Jimmy did Bball's Avatar
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    Default Re: Peyton Manning's legacy if Denver wins SB XLVIII

    I don't think Mora was that bad of a coach...
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    Default Re: Peyton Manning's legacy if Denver wins SB XLVIII

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    Good writeup Bball.

    The only thing I'd add is the underlying question. Do you blame Peyton for not being able to carry that much weight or do you blame the FO for putting that much weight on his shoulders? I blame the FO mostly. There are specific instances where we can point to and say that's all Peyton, but when the same thing happens over and over again, and the FO doesn't change anything structurally with the team, it starts being an issue about a bullheaded FO rather than an underperforming QB.
    Even if the philosophy was misguided, Polian routinely drafted studs up through 2006. Then the quality of the drafting immediately began to go downhill after we won the Super Bowl. I don't think that's a coincidence at all. Winning a Super Bowl was the one thing missing from Polian's resume, so once he finally won it at age 65, he decided to head to the back 9 and hand over more of the operation to his ill-equipped son Fredo. Our drafts from 2007 - 2011 were pretty poor for the most part. This of course led to a tragic tipping point in 2011 when Peyt was laid up in jeans on the sidelines.

    Of course, despite roster flaws, this team was in the Super Bowl in 2009. Heck, it started out 14-0 and most likely could have gone 16-0 had they tried to do it. So it's not as if the team was some pile of garbage. That team was good enough to get to the Super Bowl and was certainly more than capable of beating the Saints. The bottom line is that our players and coaching staff were just outdone by the Saints. Payton out coached Caldwell (shocking), Brees outplayed Manning (painful to admit, but certainly true), their defense came up with the big play at the end, and of course there was the gutsy onside kick that paid off. If only Garcon makes that catch and we step on their throat. Oh well.

    The point I'm trying to make is that this team was in a position to win two championships in a four year span, which would have been incredibly impressive. Instead of saying we "only" had one, we would have had a mini-dynasty because winning 2 out of 4 is an absurdly difficult to do in the modern NFL. Then what would have been the criticism of Polian? That we didn't win three or four? If we win that Super Bowl four years ago, do we still cut Manning two years later? Do we fire the Polians a mere two years after winning the Super Bowl? Do we fire Jim Caldwell if he's a championship winning head coach? That would have all seemed pretty harsh. When the Super Bowl was here in Indy two seasons ago, I remember thinking how crazy it was to think that the Colts were playing in the big game a mere two years prior. It's crazy how quickly the organization was turned upside down. That's of course the worst thing about how the Manning era ended. There was just no closure at all. When we lost that Super Bowl against the Saints, it felt like the worst thing ever, but little did we know that we would only watch one more year of Manning. It's sad to think that the last image of Manning the Colt is him questing a stupid Caldwell timeout in the Jets game, which was maybe the most screwy loss of the Manning era. If anything ever seemed certain, it was that Manning would play with the Colts until age 40 or so and have a great sendoff. You just never know how things are going to work out in sports.
    Last edited by Sollozzo; 01-31-2014 at 01:04 AM.

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  28. #70

    Default Re: Peyton Manning's legacy if Denver wins SB XLVIII

    Quote Originally Posted by Basketball Fan View Post
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    I think it would be worse considering the kicker.

    That being said Brady is a better QB now than when he actually won his SB's go figure.
    Which goes to show you how much of it is a team game.

    The Seahawks basically dusted off the Patriots early 2000 model and look at their success and much like Wilson Brady walked into a great defense and a great coach too boot while Manning had Jim Mora and a defense that never cracked the top 10 until Mora was fired.

  29. #71
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    Default Re: Peyton Manning's legacy if Denver wins SB XLVIII

    Quote Originally Posted by Basketball Fan View Post
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    That being said Brady is a better QB now than when he actually won his SB's go figure.
    When Brady came to the Pats Belichick was succesfully building a playoff contender that he hoped would win some post season games with defense, ball control & field position. An approach very much patterned after the success of the Parcels late 80's thru early 90's Giants. Much to everyones surprise they drafted a Hall of Fame QB in the 6th round. Fortunate? Yes. But let's not forget the Pats were one of the few teams in the league who thought Brady had any future as an NFL QB. This situation is a great example that luck and fortune really has more to do with hard work & preparation. The next 4-years were a perfect situation for any NFL organization. Hall of Fame QB on a cheap rookie deal playing with an exceptionally deep team that had a great mix of young talent and veteran leadership.

    The Colt's on the other hand were working on the premise that they already had a Hall of Fame QB and built their team around that focal point from the start which quickly made them overly dependant on the offensive side of the ball. Throw in the fact that Polian was hell bent on proving the (ultimately flawed) team building concepts that he developed in Buffalo were valid and you have a less than ideal situation. In fact Polian's concepts were at their most flawed in the post season when defense, ball control and physical play are generally rewarded.

    Things started to change for the Pats when they had to start paying & treating Brady as a Hall of Fame QB. Much to my surprise Belicheck even gave in to emphasizing the offensive side of the ball over the defense. While very good over the last nine seasons this team has never recaptured the post season dominance of the first 4 years of the Brady era. I don't think that is any coincidence either.

    If you look at things post 2004 the similarities between Brady & Manning's post season success & failure is pretty interesting.

    Brady

    9 Wins 8 Losses
    2 Super Bowls (0-2)
    2 One & Dones

    Manning

    7 Wins & 6 Losses
    3 Super Bowls (1-1 & 1 TBD)
    5 One & Dones

    If Manning wins tomorrow I think he will clearly take the lead in the "2nd era" comparison. Having said that short of winning the SB this year and in the next two seasons to follow Manning will certainly leave the game behind Brady as a great post season QB.

    As far as the overall (regular season included) legacy & GOAT argument it will get interesting if Manning wins tomorrow. When you give the regular season weight in the equation it is awfully hard to ignore what Manning has accomplished when compared to all other QB's in history.
    Last edited by Downtown Bang!; 02-01-2014 at 01:36 PM.

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  31. #72
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    Default Re: Peyton Manning's legacy if Denver wins SB XLVIII

    Well, this was probably the worst possible outcome for Manning and his legacy. It will be tough to live this one down.

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  33. #73
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    Default Re: Peyton Manning's legacy if Denver wins SB XLVIII

    It's not Manning's fault that he can never play on a team with a good defense.

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    Default Re: Peyton Manning's legacy if Denver wins SB XLVIII

    Yeah he's going to retire with one ring. This is two straight Super Bowls for him where the week long hype was him becoming the GOAT with a win. He failed to deliver both times.

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    Default Re: Peyton Manning's legacy if Denver wins SB XLVIII

    Quote Originally Posted by Pacersalltheway10 View Post
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    It's not Manning's fault that he can never play on a team with a good defense.
    Peyton has more turnovers than TDs in Superbowls in which he has played. He threw the game clinching INT against the Saints and was terrible for the entire game against Seattle. He didn't even play that well against the Bears.

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