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Thread: Case Study: 24 point loss to the Suns...

  1. #1
    Bring Back Bender bballpacen's Avatar
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    Default Case Study: 24 point loss to the Suns...

    There was much malaise after the 24 point loss to the Suns, but I would like to point out that there is not much cause for concern, as this game is simply an outlier. A statistical anamoly that would simply be thrown out in most analitcal measures. Further, this is a game that even the best of teams have every once and awhile; basically there is nothing you can do to keep them from happening at some point. Even the best team in NBA history record wise had a hefty loss on their way to a blistering 72-10 record. A 32 point loss to the Knicks. A Knicks team that had at that moment a winning percentage of .574 compared to the winning percentage of .585 for the Suns prior to the game. This got me thinking about the possiblity and likely hood of other past championship winners and their outliers.

    **Note, please excuse me for the lack of format in this next part...


    -96-97 Bulls had two losses of 16 and one of 17, all the opponent finished with a winning percentage in the mid to high .600s...

    -97-98 Bulls had 3 losses of 20+; 21 against the Cavs(.573), 27 against the Heat(.671), and 25 against the Lakers(.744)...

    -98-99 Spurs (in the lockout shortened season) had a 26 pt loss to the Suns(.540) and a 14 point loss to the Jazz(.740)...

    -99-00 Lakers had a 15 pt loss to Portland(.610), and an 18 and 24 pt loss to the Spurs(.707)...

    -00-01 Lakers had a 33 pt blowout to Seatle(.537), a 21 pt loss to the Suns(.622) followed immediately by a 24 pt loss to the Kings(.671)...

    -01-02 Lakers had two 16 pt losses (Nuggets[.329] and the Mavs[.695]) and three losses of 18(Twolves[.610], Spurs[.707] and the Celtics[.598])...

    -02-03 Spurs had a 19 pt loss to Portland(.610), 24 pt loss to the Kings(.720) and the Mavs(.732)...

    -03-04 Pistons had one loss for 21 points against the Sonics(.451)...

    -04-05 Spurs had a 18 point loss to the Nuggets(.598), 21 point loss to Seattle(.634), a 22 point loss to the TWolves(.537) and a 36 point smack down by the Mavs(.707)


    I am not going to list other champs and their outliers, but suffice to say, that nearly every championship team goes through these games, and we can deduce from that that everyteam goes through these games...

    Moral of the story is there is no reason to be so down on this team... It is part of the normalcy in the NBA over the course of an 82 game season. Odds are agains every team, that they will get smacked in the mouth every once and again. So stop and sit back and enjoy the ride this season... There is no telling how different it is going to be next year... Once this team is disbanded, I know that I am going to long for these seasons, and remanence on what we have before us...

    GO PACERS!!!
    Last edited by bballpacen; 01-23-2014 at 03:03 AM.

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    Default Re: Case Study: 24 point loss to the Suns...

    Yep sometimes teams just shoot lights out and there's not much you can do.

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    Default Re: Case Study: 24 point loss to the Suns...

    Yep it happens, it'll happen again at least once this season.

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    Intuition over Integers McKeyFan's Avatar
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    Default Re: Case Study: 24 point loss to the Suns...

    Even the Jimmy O'brien led Pacer teams would beat a top team a few times a year with lights out shooting and the 3 ball.
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    Default Re: Case Study: 24 point loss to the Suns...

    Pacers didn't respect the Suns.

    "You cannot screw with the basketball gods like that, it always comes back to get you, alright! "

    Randy Wittman
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    Frank Vogel says "Killer instinct, start strong, build a lead and then step on their throats."

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    Default Re: Case Study: 24 point loss to the Suns...

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    Even the Jimmy O'brien led Pacer teams would beat a top team a few times a year with lights out shooting and the 3 ball.
    Yep. In 08-09, we beat the Celtics, Cavs, Lakers, and Magic - the four best teams in the league that season. The Celtics were the defending champs and we beat them before KG went down. The Cavs had Lebron and the best record in the league. Orlando and LA ended up facing each other in the Finals. Yet we managed to get wins against all four of those teams because we got hot and were able to outscore them. Of course, the problem that year is that our putrid defense meant that we lost to plenty of bad teams.

    When a team goes a ridiculous 11-16 from three last night, you just gotta tip your hat to them and move on to the next game. This game reminded me a lot of the loss in Chicago back in November. We were flat while they couldn't miss from three. It happens. This Pacer team earned the benefit of the doubt a long time ago.

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    Default Re: Case Study: 24 point loss to the Suns...

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    Even the Jimmy O'brien led Pacer teams would beat a top team a few times a year with lights out shooting and the 3 ball.
    Correct. One of those years, we were the only team to have wins against the top 6 or 7 teams in the league. Teams that shoot a lot of threes can get hot and can beat anyone, but they aren't likely to win a seven game series.

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    Default Re: Case Study: 24 point loss to the Suns...

    I'm alittle less forgiving in this game considering the Pacers didn't not even try to set up their post game. Some one gonna tell me that Plumlee would be able to stop Hibbert in the post? Or that Channing Frye would handle David West down low? Even when West did score down low it was alot of pull up jumpers or fade-aways in the post. Sun's turned us into a jump shooting team, I don't even know what the Pacers were thinking.
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    Default Re: Case Study: 24 point loss to the Suns...

    The Pacers should have never traded Gerald Green and Plumlee away for Scola. Mostly green. However Plumlee makes
    Ian look really bad, which he mostly is.
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    Default Re: Case Study: 24 point loss to the Suns...

    Quote Originally Posted by owl View Post
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    The Pacers should have never traded Gerald Green and Plumlee away for Scola. Mostly green. However Plumlee makes
    Ian look really bad, which he mostly is.
    Green could disappear like a fart in the wind at any moment. He's having a great season and I'm glad for him, but I don't think he was ever going to work here.

    Plumlee is the one who stings the most. In hindsight, it would have been nice to give him some more minutes last year.

    I don't think that a draft pick at the very end of the first round will be anything to lose sleep over.

    We have to remember where the Pacers were when they made that trade. We just came off a postseason in which we got next to nothing from the bench. Could we really bank on Gerald Green and Miles Plumlee to deliver after what transpired last season? No way. We needed a proven bench player and Scola has been very solid.

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    Default Re: Case Study: 24 point loss to the Suns...

    I also am not interested in Green but Plumlee would have been VERY useful this year.
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    Default Re: Case Study: 24 point loss to the Suns...

    Quote Originally Posted by owl View Post
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    I also am not interested in Green but Plumlee would have been VERY useful this year.
    Not in our system. Plumlee is still a prospect. He doesn't have much of a back to the basket game, and that is how our low post offense is designed. He is athletic and will do well in an open court, fast break system, but he will struggle against set defenses.

    He does look better on defense than I expected, but Ian is still the better defender. As the announcers said last night, this trade was a win-win for both teams.

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    Default Re: Case Study: 24 point loss to the Suns...

    The mistake wasn't trading away Plumlee and Green; it was adding two guys to the roster who never really fit in the first place (well, one a known bad fit, the other an assumed bad fit). Not like the system changed overnight, so decisions were curious.

    Look...Suns aren't going to shoot 11-of-16 from range against IND again, but this team really has the efficient pace (as opposed to sporadic pace of someone like LAC) to bother the Pacers. I don't think it's a freak thing; I think they match up well vs the Pacers' game, especially when Lance and PG24 are as impatient as they are with that match mentality.

    I'll concede last night was a bit of a bad luck loss with shooting, a bit of a bad coaching loss (which I never say) with some puzzling Vogel decisions, and overall, a team effort loss. I think most of those things, you can move on from easily. I was a bit concerned about team body language last night, quite honestly. It sounds like one of those dumb, overanalyzed things in sports, but the body language from nearly everyone last night was just horrific, and almost from the start. It reminded me a lot of the Heat in their cold stretch, how it was so much less about the fight than the frustration and blame game.

    Here's to hoping these guys clear their heads and take it out on SAC.

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    Default Re: Case Study: 24 point loss to the Suns...

    What killed the Pacers was that they didn't defend!!! I always liked Goran Dragic and campaigned for the Pacers to sign him. Gorgan drove to the basket at will. It was stated numerous times he is one of the top players doing it 10 times a game, so this shouldn't have been a secret to the Pacers. The Pacers backcourt couldn't stop him. The nice "D" game Hill had in the GS game was no where to be seen last night. I've said it since the Pacers got Hill that his "D" is overrated, but it just wasn't his lack of "D" that hurt the Pacers last night as there was plenty of blame to go around.

    The Pacers got out scored in every qtr by a team that was shooting well, but then the Pacers shot 50% themselves. They also out reb'd GS. It was lack of "D" that shot the Pacers in the foot. It's not the Pacers didn't know who G Green was and his capabilities, or the fact he wanted to have a good game against the Pacers. 23 points

    If you think about it, take the 5 pts Scola scored and subtract it from the 34 points that Green and Plumlee scored and that's pretty much what the Pacers got beat by. Well a little more than that, but you get the point. The ex-Pacers had a point to prove and did just that! KUDOS TO THEM.

    The Pacers need bring their "D" EVERY game in order to not have a game like last night!

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    Default Re: Case Study: 24 point loss to the Suns...

    I'm not really sure it was a lack of defensive effort. When players like Green are pulling up and hitting threes with someone closing out on them, it's just a good shot.

    Some players benefit from aggressive on-ball defense, and Dragic is one of them. It forces the offensive player to play up-tempo and it played right into PHX hands. I think you play Dragic by giving him a little more space, encouraging him to shoot over the top and then hope you can challenge if/when he does. You really have to keep him out of the middle paint area.

    Defenses can handle one and even two players hot shooting, but when you start getting upwards of 3-4, or just everyone on the floor, it really gets difficult. That's not sustainable offense over the long-term, but it sucks getting caught on one of those nights.

    I was more concerned with the offense. It went to crap for most of the night. I went to bed with about 6mins to go, and I don't know what the FG% ended up being and it felt like PG hit some tough shots to keep it respectable but there just wasn't any flow.
    Last edited by Since86; 01-23-2014 at 10:45 AM.
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    Default Re: Case Study: 24 point loss to the Suns...

    I'm pretty sure that Hibbert only attempted one shot in the second half. That's inexcusable. I thought he was getting favorable position on Plumlee at the beginning of the game.

  29. #17

    Default Re: Case Study: 24 point loss to the Suns...

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    I'm not really sure it was a lack of defensive effort. When players like Green are pulling up and hitting threes with someone closing out on them, it's just a good shot.

    Some players benefit from aggressive on-ball defense, and Dragic is one of them. It forces the offensive player to play up-tempo and it played right into PHX hands. I think you play Dragic by giving him a little more space, encouraging him to shoot over the top and then hope you can challenge if/when he does. You really have to keep him out of the middle paint area.

    Defenses can handle one and even two players hot shooting, but when you start getting upwards of 3-4, or just everyone on the floor, it really gets difficult. That's not sustainable offense over the long-term, but it sucks getting caught on one of those nights.

    I was more concerned with the offense. It went to crap for most of the night. I went to bed with about 6mins to go, and I don't know what the FG% ended up being and it felt like PG hit some tough shots to keep it respectable but there just wasn't any flow.
    Of at least moderate concern is that we've seen two consecutive games IND has tried to match pace with the other team's offense (GSW, PHX) instead of dictating the tempo themselves.

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    Default Re: Case Study: 24 point loss to the Suns...

    I knew we'd lose that game last night when Violet Palmer was part of the referee crew. She is terrible. I'm sure you guys are gonna say stop blaming the refs, but they were just handing out and 1's to bottomfeeder players last night. Ish Smith? Who? Gerald "I've been on 8 different teams in 7 years" Green? PJ Tucker? Again........who? Last night was one of those games where the home team got a ton of calls and we couldn't play the kind of defense we usually play. As for Palmer, there's a reason why Violet Palmer is NEVER assigned by the NBA to officiate any playoff games beyond 1 game of the first round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs. Even the league knows she stinks.

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    Can see thru wooden doors dal9's Avatar
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    Default Re: Case Study: 24 point loss to the Suns...

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    I'm pretty sure that Hibbert only attempted one shot in the second half. That's inexcusable. I thought he was getting favorable position on Plumlee at the beginning of the game.
    It looked like Hibbert was trying to foul out, honestly

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    Default Re: Case Study: 24 point loss to the Suns...

    I think we all agree Green probably looks good because of their system - he was not likely to turn it around here.

    While I wouldn't have minded hanging on to Plumlee, I do think it is possible he is the same way. I don't watch them, but I'm sure he gets a lot of nice transition/easy buckets with them that he would not with us.

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    Default Re: Case Study: 24 point loss to the Suns...

    Quote Originally Posted by Speed View Post
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    Yep it happens, it'll happen again at least once this season.
    That sums it up for me. I hate these games, but they're rare, so I don't get worked up about it.

    And to be honest, the next time we're a bad team again, and this happens regularly, I shouldn't get worked up then, either, because in that case: It's a bad team, of course it's going to happen.

  36. #22

    Default Re: Case Study: 24 point loss to the Suns...

    I thought this game illustrated the value of George Hill. He was hurt and did not play as well defensively on Dragic. That seemed to be a problem over and over. T

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    Default Re: Case Study: 24 point loss to the Suns...

    Any team with three former players is going to be amped up to play us.

    Gerald Green is our new Eric Dampier, He is going to have his very best games against us but we will never ever see him in the playoffs, add another great regular season player but disappears come playoff time in Barbosa and a legitimately good player in Plumlee and they handed us our asses.

    So the key to beating us is to absolutely shoot the lights out at 54% and have Joey Crawford reff the game.
    Last edited by Ragnar; 01-23-2014 at 12:30 PM.

  39. #24
    Pacer Pride, Colts Strong Kid Minneapolis's Avatar
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    Default Re: Case Study: 24 point loss to the Suns...

    Energy. We lacked it, and the Suns (no pun intended) provided lots of energy.

    Watched first half before I couldn't stay awake anymore (damn 10:30 games).

    I assumed at that point I'd wake up today to see we had lost, it just looked like one of those nights.
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    Default Re: Case Study: 24 point loss to the Suns...

    I think it could be just one of those games where a loss was going to happen regardless.

    Then again a part of me thinks that we can trample the East but we may not be better than the West when it comes down to it.

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