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Thread: Bulls Eye Lance Stephenson?

  1. #101
    Artificial Intelligence wintermute's Avatar
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    Default Re: Bulls Eye Lance Stephenson?

    I thought about making a new thread for this, but we probably have enough Lance threads for now. SI's Ben Golliver (former Blazers blogger) lists his "All-Payday Team", i.e. 5 young guys who can cash in next summer. In addition to Lance, the others are Isaiah Thomas, Gordon Hayward, Greg Monroe, and Nikola Vucevic. Bledsoe should be in there too but apparently missed out because of his injury.

    http://nba.si.com/2014/01/15/isaiah-...ikola-vucevic/

    Lance's section:

    SG: Lance Stephenson, Pacers

    Much like Thomas, Stephenson was a second-round gold strike. Taken No. 40 in 2010, “Born Ready” has put the off-court drama that nearly derailed his career behind him, emerging as a starter for the 2013 Eastern Conference finalists and growing into an All-Star candidate this year (albeit in a weak, injury-ravaged East backcourt crop). He’s on the books for a cool $1 million; that bargain-basement salary made headlines in February 2013, when max-money teammate Roy Hibbert offered to pay a $35,000 fine on behalf of Stephenson after an on-court incident with the Warriors.

    The versatile Stephenson can score, move without the ball, run an offense, hit the glass hard and defend both guard positions. Ferocity is his defining characteristic, and it serves him well in all facets of the game: He finishes an excellent 63 percent of his shots at the rim, he ranks in the league’s top 10 in defensive rating and, at 6-foot-5 with a 10.9 rebound percentage, he just might be the best inch-for-inch rebounder in the league. (Pacers blog 8 Points, 9 Seconds compares the league’s best rebounding wings by the numbers right here, and Stephenson places tops among shooting guards.)

    In a bit of a surprise, Stephenson, 23, has developed into the No. 2 scorer (13.3 points on 49.5 percent shooting) for an excellent Pacers starting unit in which all five players score in double figures. The fit in Indiana is excellent, as the Pacers’ scoring balance and top-ranked defense limit the impact of his so-so outside shooting, but he’s done enough this season to convince outside suitors that he’s capable of succeeding in a larger role. Stephens still has untapped scoring potential, given that he’s attempting fewer than 11 shots per game. If the leash is loosened, he’s asked to create more for himself and some of the solid options (including Paul George and David West) surrounding him are stripped away, Stephenson’s potential to score at least 18 points a game starts to seem conceivable.

    That will likely leave Stephenson with one of pro sports’ age-old philosophical choices when he becomes an unrestricted free agent next summer: Take the money and run, or find a way to make things work with the Pacers. The latter approach could require agreeing to some measure of a hometown discount, as Stephenson should be the second-best shooting guard in free agency (behind Wade, who isn’t exactly available).

    SI.com’s Chris Mannix reported last month that Stephenson could command between $7 million and $9 million per year, and Grantland.com’s Zach Lowe in November estimated a salary in the $7 million to $10 million range. With the benefit of another long postseason showcase, it’s easy to envision Stephenson achieving the high end of those ranges. For comparison’s sake, Ellis, Kevin Martin and O.J. Mayo each received at least $7 million per year last summer, and Stephenson is arguably superior to all three while also entering a market without much quality competition at his position.

    Indiana possesses the league’s best record and its starting unit owns a monster plus-13.5 net rating. With the other four pieces (George, Hibbert, West and George Hill) locked in for next season, this is the type of group that should be kept together almost regardless of what it takes, even if that means breaching the luxury-tax line for the first time since 2006 (per ShamSports.com) or parting with key reserves.

    The championship window is immediate and open — potentially wide open if the Heat’s Big three disassembles next summer. The Pacers should therefore try to retain Stephenson under any circumstances, save an all-in, funny-money offer from a rival team. Cultivating a five-man unit as good as Indiana’s starters is the hard part; paying — or overpaying — to maintain it should be an easier decision. Whether the small-market Pacers — who will get Danny Granger off their books after the season but must start payments on George’s max deal — view things this way remains to be seen.

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  3. #102
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    Default Re: Bulls Eye Lance Stephenson?

    I suppose for now I'm telling myself Lance will get a 4 year $40m deal, whether it's with us or not.

  4. #103

    Default Re: Bulls Eye Lance Stephenson?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pacerized View Post
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    Yes but that still doesn't give us more then 7.5 mil to pay Lance without hitting the L.T. It's the same end result as signing Lance and then moving Copeland.
    if we trade Cope that would give us an extra 3 mil to give Lance. We can already give him around 7.5-8 mil without hitting the LT, so that would give us about 10.5 to 11 mil to give him

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    Quote Originally Posted by BlueCollarColts View Post
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    if we trade Cope that would give us an extra 3 mil to give Lance. We can already give him around 7.5-8 mil without hitting the LT, so that would give us about 10.5 to 11 mil to give him

    This was explained on the prior post just go back a page. Trading Copeland will not give us 10.5-11 for Lance. If PG is counted in the projected salary at 25% then we'd only have 7.5 to give Lance after trading Copeland. If PG's projected salary is actually listed at 27% then we might have as much as 9 mil to pay Lance after moving Copeland. That should be enough but it doesn't leave us anything extra to pay Roy when he opts out the following year.

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    Default Re: Bulls Eye Lance Stephenson?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    I suppose for now I'm telling myself Lance will get a 4 year $40m deal, whether it's with us or not.
    I think that his true market value is somewhere closer to $9 mil a year.....but really think that Teams will bid for his services and over inflate his value. In the end...I can see some Team will overpay at a rate of $11 mil a year to entice him to leave Indy.
    Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

    This is David West, he is the Honey Badger, West just doesn't give a *****....he's pretty bad *ss cuz he has no regard for any other Player or Team whatsoever.

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    Default Re: Bulls Eye Lance Stephenson?

    Quote Originally Posted by CableKC View Post
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    I think that his true market value is somewhere closer to $9 mil a year.....but really think that Teams will bid for his services and over inflate his value. In the end...I can see some Team will overpay at a rate of $11 mil a year to entice him to leave Indy.
    After seeing the money Tyreke got, I don't know what to expect.

    I do know, I want to lock him up though.

    I don't care what it takes honestly. Having Hibbert/George/Stephenson locked up will make us contenders until their contracts run up.

  8. #107
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    Sports Illustrated:
    The Pacers should therefore try to retain Stephenson under any circumstances, save an all-in, funny-money offer from a rival team.
    I think this could be the reason Bird made the public statement of being willing to let Lance go. He may be unwilling, but pretending he is willing, as it may chase off a rival making a bid, realizing they will have to honor it if they do.
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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    Default Re: Bulls Eye Lance Stephenson?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pacerized View Post
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    This was explained on the prior post just go back a page. Trading Copeland will not give us 10.5-11 for Lance. If PG is counted in the projected salary at 25% then we'd only have 7.5 to give Lance after trading Copeland. If PG's projected salary is actually listed at 27% then we might have as much as 9 mil to pay Lance after moving Copeland. That should be enough but it doesn't leave us anything extra to pay Roy when he opts out the following year.
    That also doesn't take into consideration filling out the roster which will decrease the amount they can offer Lance without going over the LT.

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    Default Re: Bulls Eye Lance Stephenson?

    If we were able lose Granger would next years salary be off of the books. If it was myself I would keep our core Hibbert/DWest/PG/Lance/Hill I would try to keep them before anyone else on the team.

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    Default Re: Bulls Eye Lance Stephenson?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    Sports Illustrated:


    I think this could be the reason Bird made the public statement of being willing to let Lance go. He may be unwilling, but pretending he is willing, as it may chase off a rival making a bid, realizing they will have to honor it if they do.

    I take Bird for his word, he's really prepared to let him go before going above what he considers a fair offer nor going into the tax.
    I do agree with him that while we wouldn't be as good, we'd still be a contender without Lance. Make the mistake of paying Lance so much that it cost us Hibbert the following year and we'd never contend without Hibbert.

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    Default Re: Bulls Eye Lance Stephenson?

    One thing may be with Lance he might even take less than market value. His mentor and motivator is here with Bird. He does well with Vogel and his staff, he has the opportunity to continuing to play on a team that can be considered as a champion contender, and maybe he would rather stay in Indiana because all of then support and the way the public views Lance in the community.

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    Default Re: Bulls Eye Lance Stephenson?

    Quote Originally Posted by jeffg-body View Post
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    One thing may be with Lance he might even take less than market value. His mentor and motivator is here with Bird. He does well with Vogel and his staff, he has the opportunity to continuing to play on a team that can be considered as a champion contender, and maybe he would rather stay in Indiana because all of then support and the way the public views Lance in the community.
    All of these are things that Lance should consider....but IMHO $$$ will be the primary motivator for him. I'd hate to see him in a different uniform....but I wouldn't blame him for leaving for more $$$.
    Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

    This is David West, he is the Honey Badger, West just doesn't give a *****....he's pretty bad *ss cuz he has no regard for any other Player or Team whatsoever.

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    Default Re: Bulls Eye Lance Stephenson?

    Quote Originally Posted by jeffg-body View Post
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    One thing may be with Lance he might even take less than market value. His mentor and motivator is here with Bird. He does well with Vogel and his staff, he has the opportunity to continuing to play on a team that can be considered as a champion contender, and maybe he would rather stay in Indiana because all of then support and the way the public views Lance in the community.
    No way the guy is 23 and has never really got paid. He needs to get paid. His next contract will set up his family for life. I would not take less than what I deserve at this stage of my career if I am Lance.

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  19. #114
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    Default Re: Bulls Eye Lance Stephenson?

    Quote Originally Posted by jeffg-body View Post
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    If we were able lose Granger would next years salary be off of the books. If it was myself I would keep our core Hibbert/DWest/PG/Lance/Hill I would try to keep them before anyone else on the team.
    Yeah, but doesn't Paul's extension kick in and fill that slot?

  20. #115

    Default Re: Bulls Eye Lance Stephenson?

    I think with Granger gone, trading Ian, Rasual off our books, and probably moving Orlando....we'll have enough for Lance. Then again, Herb might be willing to go into the tax. Never know, he did it in 2006. I think ultimately, we'll re-sign Lance without going into the tax. But then Herb might be willing to go into the tax to add another major piece like Gordon, or maybe Carmelo if he decides to leave the Knicks? You guys also forget, trading George Hill to a team willing to absorb his contract and having the cap space to do so would put us in position to re-sign Lance, and add a PG upgrade. Perhaps Lou Williams from Atlanta or Rondo? I think the key....is George Hill might have to be moved. Lakers and Mavs will have large chunks of cap space this Summer. Think the Lakers would want Hill? Hill and Kobe in the backcourt would be interesting. But Hill and Ellis would be as well.

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    Default Re: Bulls Eye Lance Stephenson?

    Quote Originally Posted by Grimp View Post
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    I think with Granger gone, trading Ian, Rasual off our books, and probably moving Orlando....we'll have enough for Lance. Then again, Herb might be willing to go into the tax. Never know, he did it in 2006. I think ultimately, we'll re-sign Lance without going into the tax. But then Herb might be willing to go into the tax to add another major piece like Gordon, or maybe Carmelo if he decides to leave the Knicks? You guys also forget, trading George Hill to a team willing to absorb his contract and having the cap space to do so would put us in position to re-sign Lance, and add a PG upgrade. Perhaps Lou Williams from Atlanta or Rondo? I think the key....is George Hill might have to be moved. Lakers and Mavs will have large chunks of cap space this Summer. Think the Lakers would want Hill? Hill and Kobe in the backcourt would be interesting. But Hill and Ellis would be as well.
    Couple quick thoughts here: a) What are you trading Ian for? You have to take back salary unless it is to a team under the cap. Who is going to just want to deal a pick or random foreign player for Ian? Does anyone value him that much? b) Orlando makes peanuts, his salary doesn't move the needle enough to ultimately matter. c) The CBA was different in 2006 than it is now. The penalties for going into the luxury tax are far steeper now than they were then. d) Just stop with the Gordon stuff, honestly. e) Carmelo? Is that a joke? f) Who with cap space would be willing to absorb Hill's contract, and how could we give Lance big money and upgrade from Hill while essentially giving him away? g) Lou Williams is a shooting guard.

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    Default Re: Bulls Eye Lance Stephenson?

    I'm beginning to think that this thread should just be renamed to "All things Lance Stephenson".

    http://hoopshype.com/columns/rosen/l...dethrone-miami

    January 19, 2014 @ 09:47 PM ET by Charley Rosen

    The only possibility of any team’s dethroning the Miami Heat depends on the play of one individual player.

    Not Kevin Durant because even with a fully recovered Russell Westbrook the Thunder have no inside scoring and lack the ability to play championship defense.

    Not Tim Duncan and company because the Spurs had their chance last June and blew it – mainly through Gregg Popovich’s stubbornness.

    Not LaMarcus Aldridge because teams that live by the jump shot die in the playoffs.

    In truth, the only player who can make the difference in a playoff series against the defending champions is… Lance Stephenson.


    Why Stephenson and not Paul George, David West, Roy Hibbert, and/or George Hill?

    Here’s why:

    For sure, PG is a bona fide superstar. Depend on him to knock down some treys, use weakside picks to his advantage, create his own highly makeable shots, and even play adequate defense against LeBron James. Indeed, George has become increasingly consistent.

    And that’s the point, here. For the most part, George does what he does and does it well. But it’s unreasonable to expect him to explode for 30-plus sharpshooting points over the course of an entire series against Miami. PG simply lacks the overwhelming presence (like LBJ has) to routinely dominate. Plus, LeBron’s powerhouse defense will limit George’s influence.

    Hibbert will block a few shots, discourage even more, rebound at both ends, and is too tall and long to be effectively defended by Chris Bosh and/or Chris Andersen. Which is precisely why the Heat took a flyer on Greg Oden, who unfortunately is slow off his feet and can’t play quality defense without fouling.

    Hibbert would be much more of a factor on offense if he’d get more touches in the low post. And much more effective on defense if he could avoid committing superfluous fouls. Plus, count the times every game where the relatively powerless Hibbert gets knocked to the floor.

    Given enough time and space, West is a dependable scorer in the low post. He’s too big and strong to be checked by Shane Battier and too powerful to be inhibited by the defensive efforts of Bosh. In fact, only the foul-prone, brick shooting Chris Andersen has the size and the mettle to contain West.

    However, West’s general lack of explosiveness can be exploited by Miami’s quick and mobile defense.

    George Hill is an underrated man-to-man defender whose solid all-around play is a vital part of Indiana’s success. Yet he’s not really a point guard and rarely exhibits greatness.

    Like West, Luis Scola is a tricky, bull-like scorer in the paint. Like West, he’s also slow, defenseless, and seldom employed as a designated point-maker. Danny Granger is gradually getting back into his groove but his limited playing time limits his impact.

    As for Stephenson… While he was a schoolboy in Lincoln High School back home in Brooklyn, Stephenson’s talent was as immense as his ego. The sights and sounds of his cursing his coach was an every game occurrence. His one and only season at Cincinnati was marked as much by Stephenson’s potential as his inconsistent play. And, in 2010, the Pacers drafted him in the second round (40th overall) primarily based on this potential.

    Many scouts believed that Stephenson was just one more prodigiously talented yet tragically immature young player who would never amount to much in the NBA. And for his first two seasons in Indiana, this was indeed the case. Last year, Stephenson finally showed signs of growing up and harnessing his skills.


    As of this writing, he’s Indiana’s second-leading scorer (15.6 ppg), most efficient shooter (50.2 percent) and assist-maker (5.1). On the debit side, his 2.6 turnovers per game ties Stephenson with PG for the team lead in this dubious category.

    Yet Stephenson’s game goes beyond his numbers.

    He’s easily the best overall athlete in the squad, and just as easily the most explosive. It’s Stephenson who can create something out of nothing – sudden bursts to the hoop for unexpected scores, impossible off-balance shots that make the nets dance, magical now-you-see-it-now-you-don’t assist passes, coming from nowhere to make a steal, rising to dunk in heavy traffic. Yes, he still takes too many questionable shots and makes poor decisions with the ball, but his errors of commission and omission are rapidly decreasing. More than any other teammate, Stephenson plays on the edge of greatness and when he’s on-balance he can change any play, any game, any series.

    That’s why Lance Stephenson is Indiana’s X-factor and the biggest threat to a three-peat by the Heat.
    The rest of the universe is beginning to realize what most of us have known for the last 1.5 seasons.....Lance is the X-Factor for the Team.
    Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

    This is David West, he is the Honey Badger, West just doesn't give a *****....he's pretty bad *ss cuz he has no regard for any other Player or Team whatsoever.

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  25. #118

    Default Re: Bulls Eye Lance Stephenson?

    The 7.5-8 million dollar figure is just imaginary. It's about $10m, give or take $500k for signing an end of the bench scrub.

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    Default Re: Bulls Eye Lance Stephenson?

    Quote Originally Posted by CableKC View Post
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    I'm beginning to think that this thread should just be renamed to "All things Lance Stephenson".

    http://hoopshype.com/columns/rosen/l...dethrone-miami


    The rest of the universe is beginning to realize what most of us have known for the last 1.5 seasons.....Lance is the X-Factor for the Team.
    Am I the only one who thinks this article is full of ****? And it has nothing to do with what he says about Lance. Last year showed how important big men are vs Miami. I'm sorry, but we aren't beating Miami without Roy Hibbert manning the paint, regardless of how Lance plays.

    And we do need PG to be that superstar he has become, regardless how Lance plays. And we need West to knock down those big buckets from the elbow like he has a knack for doing when we need them most, regardless how Lance plays. This team isn't about to beat Miami because of one guy. The reason this team can beat Miami is because its a TEAM. Because our roster is 8 deep. Because we are committed to playing the best defense in the last decade.

    Lance is an X-Factor, purely because of his style and how he impacts the game. But no, he's not our biggest threat to the Heat.

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  28. #120

    Default Re: Bulls Eye Lance Stephenson?

    To try to get a better idea of what kind of money Lance could command this offseason, I decided to look for players with statistically similar seasons. For just this season, I couldn't find another player that was nearly as statistically similar as Nicolas Batum:

    Rk Player Season Age G GS MP FG% 3P 3P% FT% TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
    1 Nicolas Batum 2013-14 25 40 40 35.9 .461 1.9 .363 .822 6.8 5.6 0.9 0.7 2.5 1.9 13.4
    2 Lance Stephenson 2013-14 23 38 38 35.2 .501 1.1 .348 .714 6.8 5.2 0.7 0.1 2.6 2.5 13.9
    Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
    Generated 1/20/2014.

    In addition, while Lance currently leads the league in triple doubles with 3, Batum is tied for second (with Steph Curry) with 2. According to ShamSports, Batum's salary this season is $11,295,250. Give or take a million or so, that's about what I'd expect Lance to get offered this summer. Especially if he makes the all-star team.
    WE ARE NOT GETTING ERIC GORDON

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    Default Re: Bulls Eye Lance Stephenson?

    Quote Originally Posted by Aw Heck View Post
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    To try to get a better idea of what kind of money Lance could command this offseason, I decided to look for players with statistically similar seasons. For just this season, I couldn't find another player that was nearly as statistically similar as Nicolas Batum:

    In addition, while Lance currently leads the league in triple doubles with 3, Batum is tied for second (with Steph Curry) with 2. According to ShamSports, Batum's salary this season is $11,295,250. Give or take a million or so, that's about what I'd expect Lance to get offered this summer. Especially if he makes the all-star team.
    Really nice find. Thanks for sharing.

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    Default Re: Bulls Eye Lance Stephenson?

    Quote Originally Posted by Aw Heck View Post
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    In addition, while Lance currently leads the league in triple doubles with 3, Batum is tied for second (with Steph Curry) with 2. According to ShamSports, Batum's salary this season is $11,295,250. Give or take a million or so, that's about what I'd expect Lance to get offered this summer. Especially if he makes the all-star team.
    This sounds about right....in terms of what we are expecting that Lance would get on the high end....something starting at $11+ mil a year.

    I just hope that he's willing to take an offer of $44 mil Total / 5 year / 4th Year Player Option ( what I think the Pacers can offer ) over an offer of $44 mil / 4 year / 4th Year Player Option ( what I suspect that Teams would offer him on the high-end ).
    Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

    This is David West, he is the Honey Badger, West just doesn't give a *****....he's pretty bad *ss cuz he has no regard for any other Player or Team whatsoever.

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    Default Re: Bulls Eye Lance Stephenson?

    Quote Originally Posted by PacersHomer View Post
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    The 7.5-8 million dollar figure is just imaginary. It's about $10m, give or take $500k for signing an end of the bench scrub.
    We don't have 10 mil to spend even after moving Copeland if we're able to and we still have to keep in mind that Roy will opt out and need a huge raise the following year.

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    Default Re: Bulls Eye Lance Stephenson?

    The question is probably going to come down to. Is this team better off long term with Lance at $11+ million per year or Granger at $7 million?

  34. #125

    Default Re: Bulls Eye Lance Stephenson?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eleazar View Post
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    The question is probably going to come down to. Is this team better off long term with Lance at $11+ million per year or Granger at $7 million?
    Well that's a pretty easy question

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