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Thread: Which teams will try and sign Lance?

  1. #1

    Default Which teams will try and sign Lance?

    Almost everybody agrees that Lance will get a nice contract this summer, but I haven't seen much discussion about who he'll get it from. I want to go through each team and try and pin point who we'll be bidding against.

    Let's start with the facts (or at least what's been reported at fact):

    -The Pacers will offer Lance a contract this summer
    -Other teams will offer Lance a contract this summer
    -Lance is valued right now at around $9 million a year
    -Lance wants to stay with the Pacers


    Not a reported fact but most probably true:
    -Lance will only go to a team where he is the starter and will play a big part in the offense.

    So what this means is that if the money is the roughly the same, Lance will re-sign with the Pacers. Let's say that the Pacers offer exactly that $9 million a year, and maybe even max out at $10/year. Meaning, only teams with over $10 million in cap space can plausibly make an offer Lance would accept and the Pacers won't match.

    According to this Hoopshype article, these are the teams with at least $10 million in cap space next summer:

    Los Angeles Lakers — $46-52 million
    Philadelphia 76ers — $34 million
    Dallas Mavericks — $31 million
    Utah Jazz — $23-43 million
    Phoenix Suns — $19.5 million
    Charlotte Bobcats — $19 million
    Orlando Magic — $19 million
    Washington Wizards — $15 million
    Atlanta Hawks — $12 million
    Detroit Pistons — $12 million
    Milwaukee Bucks — $12 million

    This article was written in September so it doesn't include a few recent trades that have opened up cap space for teams that could also be in the discussion:

    Boston Celtics
    Chicago Bulls (assuming they amnesty Boozer)

    Next, my speculation on whether each team could fit Lance as a free agent at $12+ million a year:

    X is no, O is a good fit, △ is a fit but with complications

    △ Los Angeles Lakers — $46-52 million (good system fit but they're saving money for Love, RWB, etc)
    O Philadelphia 76ers — $34 million (good fit next to MCW)
    △ Dallas Mavericks — $31 million
    X Utah Jazz — $23-43 million (no chance)
    X Phoenix Suns — $19.5 million (Bledsoe and Dragic)
    △ Charlotte Bobcats — $19 million (don't know where Lance fits)
    X Orlando Magic — $19 million (Oladipo and Afflalo, for now)
    X Washington Wizards — $15 million (Wall and Beal)
    △ Atlanta Hawks — $12 million (Don't know their plan, possible good fit)
    △ Detroit Pistons — $12 million (good fit, don't know how it works financially with Monroe)
    △ Milwaukee Bucks — $12 million (Who knows?)
    O Toronto Raptors — $8-26 million
    △ Cleveland Cavaliers — 6.5-$24 million (Depends on what happens with Waiters)
    O Boston Celtics (Stevens and Stephenson would work well together)
    O Chicago Bulls (Rose, Lance, Butler, Taj and Noah would be a hell of a team)

    That leaves,

    △ Los Angeles Lakers
    △ Dallas Mavericks
    △ Charlotte Bobcats
    △ Atlanta Hawks
    △ Milwaukee Bucks
    △ Toronto Raptors
    △ Cleveland Cavaliers
    △ Detroit Pistons
    O Philadelphia 76ers
    O Boston Celtics
    O Chicago Bulls

    as the teams I see as possible bidders for Lance, with the the 76ers, Celtics and Bulls being the best fit for Lance. Thoughts?
    Last edited by King Tuts Tomb; 01-08-2014 at 06:10 AM.

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  3. #2
    Intuition over Integers McKeyFan's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which teams will try and sign Lance?

    I could definitely see the Lakers make a strong play. He would shine in showtime.
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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    Artificial Intelligence wintermute's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which teams will try and sign Lance?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    I could definitely see the Lakers make a strong play. He would shine in showtime.
    As KTT says though, Lakers probably go after a more high profile target.

    KTT: good list, mostly, though I'm not sure why you're ruling out Utah. Seems like Lance could play well with Hayward. Anyway, yeah, a large number of teams could possibly talk themselves into making a large offer for Lance.

    The Bulls would **** me off. IMO, he'd be a good fit there, and at the same time Lance going there would weaken us while strengthening a division rival. Hopefully though like the Lakers maybe they'll be aiming at more high profile guys, like Melo.

    Another thing to look at - who are the similar young swingman/combo guards who would be competing for the same FA dollars as Lance. The obvious ones I can think of are Bledsoe and Hayward, both RFAs. Maybe Avery Bradley and possibly Evan Turner. Parsons of course if Houston opts out of his contract, but that doesn't seem likely. Then there's older guys like Deng, Granger, Marion, Crawford, Stuckey who can soak up some FA money as well.

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    Default Re: Which teams will try and sign Lance?

    LA Lakers...he will fit the run n' gun style of D'Antoni, just don't see it work with Kobe most probably healthy by next year, unless Kobe plays more off the ball. Also, it's likely possible that their main targets are UCLA guys like Westbrook and Love.

    Dallas is a nice fit "line up wise" I think. Just a lot of options on offense there. The problem will be the offensive system that Rick implements as he's strict with sets.

    Boston is a bit of a mess in their lineup right now, but I think their main target is to improve their front court.

    Bulls is a bad fit if he's playing alongside Rose. He would probably be just waiting at the corner looking for a drive-and-dish from Rose.

    Sixers is a good fit, but it will depend on what they'll do with Turner. 3-guard combo, maybe?

    The only teams that I think makes sense for Lance other than Indiana are Dallas and Philly.

  8. #5
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    Default Re: Which teams will try and sign Lance?

    I think that Lance will get several competing offers and I know that there is a limit as to how much Bird will and should pay for Lance. Lance is not a keep at all cost player. If we lose Lance I doubt if we'd be able to replace what we lose with him with an MLE player but I still think this team would be fine in contending for a title without him. If it comes to losing Lance I think we'd be better off in keeping Granger then we would be with any player we could land with the MLE as a free agent and we could spend a little more then the MLE on him. I hope Lance has the loyalty to want to stay here if the dollars are close to what Bird's fair offer will be.
    It's going to get ugly on here when free agency starts.

  9. #6
    Member Ragnar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which teams will try and sign Lance?

    Lance wants to be the PG so does MCW I don't see them working that out.

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    Default Re: Which teams will try and sign Lance?

    △ Los Angeles Lakers: Nope they have Kobe's huge contract for the next 2 years.


    △ Dallas Mavericks: No way they already have Monta.


    △ Charlotte Bobcats: Maybe.


    △ Atlanta Hawks: possible, he could be a good fit.


    △ Milwaukee Bucks: OJ Mayo is there.


    △ Toronto Raptors: They have a lot of guards nope.


    △ Cleveland Cavaliers: They got Waiters but maybe because they are crazy.


    △ Detroit Pistons: Not going to happen, Brandon J, Josh Smith and Lance on the same team? don't see it.


    Philadelphia 76ers: Nope, they got a bunch of guards.


    Boston Celtics: Best fit but with Rondo there I'm not sure how that is going to work out.


    Chicago Bulls: Probably but I have a feeling that Chicago is aiming for somebody else.

  11. #8
    You can call me Taz cinotimz's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which teams will try and sign Lance?

    Quote Originally Posted by King Tuts Tomb View Post
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    -Lance is valued right now at around $9 million a year
    Fact???

    Uh, no...

  12. #9

    Default Re: Which teams will try and sign Lance?

    Quote Originally Posted by cinotimz View Post
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    Fact???

    Uh, no...
    "(or at least what's been reported at fact)"

    Come on, man. Read the whole post.

  13. #10
    You can call me Taz cinotimz's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which teams will try and sign Lance?

    Quote Originally Posted by FlavaDave View Post
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    "(or at least what's been reported at fact)"

    Come on, man. Read the whole post.
    Reported guess? ...yes

    Reported prognostication?...yes

    Reported fact? Definitely not

    Come on, man....understand the difference

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  15. #11
    Redemption. docpaul's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which teams will try and sign Lance?

    I would be absolutely shocked if Bird let Lance walk this offseason.

    I simply don't see it.

    He will trade anyone not named Paul, Roy, or David to ensure his future here if he has to, IMO.

    The franchise is way too invested in the kid, and now that he's paying big dividends? Fuggetaboutit.

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    Default Re: Which teams will try and sign Lance?

    Lance has said he wants to be here and Larry has said he wants to keep Lance, worrying about it now is pointless.

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  19. #13

    Default Re: Which teams will try and sign Lance?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ragnar View Post
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    Lance wants to be the PG
    says who?

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  21. #14

    Default Re: Which teams will try and sign Lance?

    Quote Originally Posted by cinotimz View Post
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    Reported guess? ...yes

    Reported prognostication?...yes

    Reported fact? Definitely not

    Come on, man....understand the difference
    I am stuck in a paradox. I was trying to keep this thread from becoming a semantics argument, but I can't respond without getting into a semantics argument.

    Maybe we can agree that the statement "NBA beat writers have, by their own claim, spoken to anonymous front office sources who have stated that their particular front office considers Lance Stephenson to be worth about $9 million a year at this point in time, and that is roughly equal to claiming that Lance Stephenson is worth roughly $9 million a year" and move on?

  22. #15

    Default Re: Which teams will try and sign Lance?

    Boston doesn't really seem like the team that would sign him. They've got Rondo, Bradley, and Jordan Crawford.

  23. #16
    Member Since86's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which teams will try and sign Lance?

    Quote Originally Posted by PacersHomer View Post
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    Boston doesn't really seem like the team that would sign him. They've got Rondo, Bradley, and Jordan Crawford.
    Both have expiring deals this year.
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.” ― Ricky Gervais.

    What if someone from a school of business or management school were to ask, How did you do this? How did you get the Pacers turned around? Is there a general approach you've taken that can be summarized?

    Larry Bird: Yeah, patience.

  24. #17

    Default Re: Which teams will try and sign Lance?

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    Both have expiring deals this year.
    I didn't know that, but I would assume they would rather re-sign Crawford, who has been their Lance of this year, before signing Lance.

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    Whale Shepherd cdash's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which teams will try and sign Lance?

    I think Boston is exactly the team I would fear throwing him a big offer. They have a stable, good culture there between Ainge/Stevens and as well as Crawford/Bradley are playing this year, neither is as good as Lance or an impediment to the Celtics signing him. If they get a high draft pick, then they are quickly on their way to a solid rebuild with Rondo+Lance (although the chemistry fit between those two is questionable, and I question Rondo being a Celtic long-term)+lotto pick X.

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  27. #19
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    Default Re: Which teams will try and sign Lance?

    lol Rondo and Lance would be like ammonia and fuel oil!

    Chicago looks like a good fit but the fan base will want a guy who puts up big numbers.
    That will be Lance's problem. He's a blast to watch and makes his team better. but His stats don't scream a ten million dollar player.
    The big spender's will want big names and the less aggressive and more cautious suitors will be matched by The Legend.

  28. #20
    DIET COKE! Trader Joe's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which teams will try and sign Lance?

    Phoenix.

    EDIT: I see you have them as a no. I disagree. Bledsoe and Lance would be the most physical backcourt in the league and would fit perfectly in the tempo they are playing with right now. It seems an obvious fit to me. I see 5 teams on that list that I think would go for Lance depending on who they draft Phoenix, Charlotte, Utah (also a team you have as a no, but you don't think utah would be interested in a possible Trey Burke, Lance, Hayward trio?), Atlanta (Lance would be a great initiator for Milsap and Horford IMO), and Dallas.

    I don't see Lance as a fit in Philly. One MCW is extremely similar to Lance in many ways, two if they want to spend on a guard they may just re-sign Evan Turner.
    Last edited by Trader Joe; 01-08-2014 at 12:52 PM.

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    Whale Shepherd cdash's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which teams will try and sign Lance?

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
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    Phoenix.

    EDIT: I see you have them as a no. I disagree. Bledsoe and Lance would be the most physical backcourt in the league and would fit perfectly in the tempo they are playing with right now. It seems an obvious fit to me. I see 5 teams on that list that I think would go for Lance depending on who they draft Phoenix, Charlotte, Utah (also a team you have as a no, but you don't think utah would be interested in a possible Trey Burke, Lance, Hayward trio?), Atlanta (Lance would be a great initiator for Milsap and Horford IMO), and Dallas.

    I don't see Lance as a fit in Philly. One MCW is extremely similar to Lance in many ways, two if they want to spend on a guard they may just re-sign Evan Turner.
    Would they really want to break up the fantastic Dragic/Bledsoe backcourt duo?

  30. #22

    Default Re: Which teams will try and sign Lance?

    The Celtics might have their eyes on a different player from the 2010 draft.

  31. #23

    Default Re: Which teams will try and sign Lance?

    Since free agency starts after the draft a lot of these "maybes" might go away thanks to guys like Wiggins or Dante Exum or Gary Harris.

  32. #24
    Whale Shepherd cdash's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which teams will try and sign Lance?

    Quote Originally Posted by PacersHomer View Post
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    The Celtics might have their eyes on a different player from the 2010 draft.
    Yes no need to be cryptic--the Gordon Hayward connection is strong.

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  34. #25
    I'm on a MAC! graphic-er's Avatar
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    Default Re: Which teams will try and sign Lance?

    Hayward and Stevens reunion??? That has me giddy.

    Is Hayward a restricted Free Agent?
    You can't get champagne from a garden hose.

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