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Thread: The NBA's Possible Solution for Tanking: Good-bye to the Lottery, Hello to the Wheel

  1. #26
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    Default Re: Does this new proposal solve tanking for draft picks???

    I love this idea

  2. #27

    Default Re: The NBA's Possible Solution for Tanking: Good-bye to the Lottery, Hello to the Wheel

    Quote Originally Posted by Mackey_Rose View Post
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    Because 1 player in basketball, makes a far bigger impact than 1 player does in football. They can't even be compared.

    You're a Colts fan saying this?

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    Default Re: The NBA's Possible Solution for Tanking: Good-bye to the Lottery, Hello to the Wheel

    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute View Post
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    That's the theory, but does it really work? Why are there so many teams that are perennially in the lotto?

    What actually happens is that a bad team hires a good GM, and the good GM uses a combination of tools - including draft picks, trades, and FAs - to get better. High draft picks by themselves don't guarantee anything.

    I don't know if this proposal is the one I would 100% back, but definitely the current system needs an overhaul.
    Of course, high draft picks is not the only thing that can turn around a team, but it is the most important tool you have. It gives the worst teams the best chance to rebuild quickly. Yes, you still have to do the other things, but you need a system that should give the worst team the best chance to improve their team. Now if that bad team screws it up then that is on them. The NBA should look at systems that can create more parity not create a system in which you could have the Heat drafting Anthony Davis and create a larger disparity.

    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute View Post
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    And as I replied in the other thread, this just shifts tanking elsewhere. Teams on the playoff bubble now have an incentive to lose games and "win" the lottery.
    Every system is going to have its issues. In this purposed system you could easily get the best team in the league getting the first overall. Bill Simmons even suggested having like a loser tourney and take the lottery picks and let them battle it out, but then you might have a team tank to get into the tourney because they know they could beat the other teams and get a title.

    I rather just see them give the first pick to the worst team and move on.

  5. #29
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    Default Re: Does this new proposal solve tanking for draft picks???

    There's another piece of this some people haven't thought about - with there being full knowledge of what year each team gets the #1 pick, a guy who has a choiuce to come out in the year the Hornets have the #1 pick or in the year the Lakers have the #1 pick is going to look really closely at whether he waits an extra year so he can play in The Show vs. being stuck in Charlotte.
    BillS

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    Default Re: Does this new proposal solve tanking for draft picks???

    Honestly, I don't think there is a single scenario that will make everyone happy. The ultimate goal should be parity. I think in order to do so you have to first install a hard cap. There is no paying extra to go over it, you have to stay within the cap... no and, ifs, or buts. I like the idea of no guaranteed contracts like the NFL too. If a team wants to cut a player they can do so to wipe them off the salary cap; however, they must pay the final year of their contract. This would give teams a chance to get out from under bad contracts if the player doesn’t live up to their paycheck. If I was performing badly I would be fired, why is that not the case in professional sports?

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    Default Re: The NBA's Possible Solution for Tanking: Good-bye to the Lottery, Hello to the Wheel

    Sorry, messed up when I merged the threads - I wanted to keep vnzla81's title but picked the wrong destination thread. I've edited the title to his.
    BillS

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    Default Re: The NBA's Possible Solution for Tanking: Good-bye to the Lottery, Hello to the Wheel

    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute View Post
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    That's the theory, but does it really work? Why are there so many teams that are perennially in the lotto?
    If it didn't work people wouldn't value higher draft picks.

    The reason there are perennial lotto teams is because it takes more than just a few high draft picks. First talent isn't guaranteed, a high draft pick helps you by putting you in a position to draft better talent but does not guarantee better talent. The second is you have to keep that talent around longer than their first contract. Finally you have to have a coach that establishes a good culture, and knows how to develop his talent. For example, if you put Jordan Crawford on the Pacers in place of Lance, and I bet we are talking about him in similar ways as we are for Lance. Put Lance on a team with less discipline, and he probably never grows into the player he has become.

    Makes me wish Vogel was our head coach the whole time McBob was here, he had a lot of potential if he just had a coach that could have guided him in the right direction. More towards a West like player, and less towards a Copeland type player.

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  12. #33
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    Default Re: Does this new proposal solve tanking for draft picks???

    Quote Originally Posted by MUpaceSIC View Post
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    This would give teams a chance to get out from under bad contracts if the player doesn’t live up to their paycheck. If I was performing badly I would be fired, why is that not the case in professional sports?
    It all has to do with contracts. It works the same way in the real world if you sign a contract that does not state that they can fire you and not fulfill their part of the agreement. What most NBA contracts don't do is they don't state that the contract is guaranteed. The only reason it is that way is because it is expected for a contract to be guaranteed. If you don't, the player is going to go to a different team that will. This is why only end of the bench players don't get guaranteed contracts.

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  14. #34

    Default Re: The NBA's Possible Solution for Tanking: Good-bye to the Lottery, Hello to the Wheel

    Whats the Harrison Barnes to Warriors situation?

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    Default Re: The NBA's Possible Solution for Tanking: Good-bye to the Lottery, Hello to the Wheel

    Quote Originally Posted by Mackey_Rose View Post
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    Because 1 player in basketball, makes a far bigger impact than 1 player does in football. They can't even be compared.
    And the fact that teams would even tank harder for the guaranteed pick. The point of the lottery is for teams not being guaranteed the first pick, so teams will be less likely to tank. Not perfect, but better then the NFL layout.
    .

    Frank Vogel says "Killer instinct, start strong, build a lead and then step on their throats."

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    Default Re: The NBA's Possible Solution for Tanking: Good-bye to the Lottery, Hello to the Wheel

    Here is my "attempt" at another (more complicated) system:

    For the draft, I would have the top 8 teams be put into a random drawing. The first four drawn would receive the first four selections in the draft (slots 1, 2, 3, 4). The remaining teams that were not drawn would be the final four teams drafting, with the best record getting the "best of the worst" position (slots 27, 28, 29, 30). The next 8 teams based on record (teams 9 through 16) would then be put into a drawing with the same system. Four teams are drawn for slots 5, 6, 7, 8 with the remaining teams placed in order of record (slots 23, 24, 25, 26). You would then draw four teams from the remaining 14 to determine the next group of four (slots 9, 10, 11, 12). The remaining 10 teams would be slotted base on record (slots 13-22). The whole point is that you could be one of the worst teams, but not get a top 8 pick. This would also give even the best team a chance for a pick in the 9-12 range, and at worst pick 22. I know it’s complicated to an extent, but is the best I could come up with to give almost every team a chance to improve their draft position.

    Here would be the current groupings based on current standings:

    Group #1:
    Milwaukee
    Utah
    Philadelphia
    Orlando
    Sacramento
    New York
    Brooklyn
    Cleveland

    (Picks 1, 2, 3, 4 and 27, 28, 29, 30)

    Group #2:
    Chicago
    Boston
    Memphis
    New Orleans
    Toronto
    Detroit
    Minnesota
    Charlotte

    (Picks 5, 6, 7, 8 and 23, 24, 25, 26)

    Group #3:
    Washington
    LA Lakers
    Golden State
    Denver
    Dallas
    Atlanta
    Phoenix
    Houston
    LA Clippers
    Miami
    San Antonio
    OKC
    Indiana
    Portland

    (Slots 9, 10, 11, 12 and 13-22 based on record)


    This also gets every single team involved in the draft lottery, which I'm sure they could make an even bigger event out of it on TV.
    Last edited by MUpaceSIC; 12-23-2013 at 03:19 PM.

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  18. #37
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    Default Re: Does this new proposal solve tanking for draft picks???

    Quote Originally Posted by PacersHomer View Post
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    This is the worst idea ever. Might as well contract to 8 teams because this will only help big markets.
    I feel the same. Free agents may look at which big market is next to sign a top 3 pick, and also be a decent team, that year and sway another big free agent to follow suit.

  19. #38
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    Default Re: The NBA's Possible Solution for Tanking: Good-bye to the Lottery, Hello to the Wheel

    The "wheel" already existed in the sense that many teams could earn the top pick with an even chance, it's how Patrick Ewing ended up on the Knicks. I'm so tired of people trying to fix the lottery with systems that had to be fixed with...the lottery.

    Tanking is already fixed - it fails a lot more than it works. Just because some dumb GM wants to attempt to work a losing strategy doesn't mean we need a rules change to protect him from himself.



    The problem is fans (and GMs and idiots like Simmons) focus on where someone like Durant or James came from (ie, top of the lottery) and ignore the rest of the lottery or even who the worst teams drafted year after year.


    And as always I get most offended when ANY PACERS FAN ever acts like the lottery is a winning strategy.

    BOB HILL PACERS - 3 years of .500
    Larry Brown the next 2 seasons - ECF

    Larry Brown - 1st round and then just outside playoffs
    Larry Bird - 3 straight ECF, last year Finals

    Isiah - 3 1st round outs, the final year from the 3rd seed (ie, no high draft picks)
    Carlisle - Best record in NBA, team NBA wins record, ECF

    JOB - floundering in the middle just outside East playoffs, no high picks
    Vogel - playoffs from MID SEASON TAKEOVER, 2nd round, ECF, and now maybe the #1 NBA record/Finals


    No fanbase more than Pacers fans should be more aware of how much utter horses*** the "must draft top 3" is as a strategy, or how pointless tanking is....well except maybe Clippers or Charlotte fans.



    The Heat have titles from - SHAQ and BIG 3. Yes they got a good pick for Wade, but they went from getting knocked out by Indy to winning titles using BIG CONTRACT ABSORPTION. You had enough contract money to trade for Shaq and a relationship with Kobe to inspire it. Then they cleared the books to sign Bosh and James.

    Miami also got lucky and beat out teams like the Knicks and Nets who got left out in the "clear money for Lebron" strategy. So even the FA method is flawed. Right now the Nets and Knicks are getting crushed after their 2nd iteration of "Lebron cap space" FA moves.





    GM is a job just like an athlete or coach. They aren't all the same, some are better than others. The key to winning is to draft better than your draft position, spend your FA money wisely, and make even or good trades. A big reason why so many high picks are busts is because a bad GM has a bad team which means a high pick which means a bad GM is making that draft pick which is how they got there in the first place.


    Great teams have 2 speeds - title level and just "okay".
    They almost never go into "terrible" mode, certainly not intentionally or without a major injury. The Spurs have Duncan, sure, but look at how they got Parker and Ginobilli or really anyone else on their roster. It's not Duncan carrying them at this point. They run a good program that either wins or wins big. The Lakers went from Showtime to Nick at Night to Kobe/Shaq to Kobe/Gasol without ever dropping far down in the standings and only missing 2 playoffs from 1977 to 2013. They didn't even keep the same stars.

    Hell, Boston could have done it if Reggie Lewis and Len Bias didn't both die.


    How many lottery winning teams in the last 20 years have a title with that lottery pick? Players still with their team in bold.

    Bucks - Big Dog
    Warriors - Joe Smith
    76ers - Iverson (1 Finals, lost 4-1)
    Spurs - Duncan (the exception, not the rule)
    Clippers - Kandi
    Bulls - Brand
    Nets - KMart (2 Finals with Nets in terrible East, not the main star)
    Wizards - Kwame
    Rockets - Yao
    Cavs - Lebron (1 ECF loss, 1 Finals loss)
    Magic - Dwight (1 ECF loss, 1 Finals loss)
    Bucks - Bogut
    Raps - Bargnani
    Blazers - Oden
    Bulls - Rose (1 ECF loss)
    Clips - Griffin
    Wiz - Wall
    Cavs - Irving
    Pelicans - Davis (good, but now injured)
    Cavs - Bennet (not looking good so far)



    The 2nd and 3rd picks are just as hit and miss. Here are the top 10 career win shares guys picked 2nd or 3rd and who picked them (since 94 to match #1 picks list above).

    Kidd - Dallas (the "big 3" in Dallas was a bust)
    Billups - Denver (was considered a slight bust when Pistons got him)
    Gasol - Atlanta (immediately traded to MEM for SA Rahim and Tinsley draft spot, couldn't carry MEM and got traded to LAL)
    Grant Hill - Detroit (famously left Detroit as FA going to Magic using Shaq-left-us money)
    Camby - Toronto (more success with Knicks)
    Melo - Denver (great scorer hasn't carried DEN or NYK to Finals)
    Durant - OKC (like Duncan, exception to the rule)
    Chandler - Clips (immediately traded to Bulls for Brand)
    Bibby - Grizzlies
    Rahim - Grizzlies (Bibby came 2 years later, Griz had 2 top 3 picks together...Finals? Nope. Relocated? Yep.)

    The list continues with guys like Dunleavy, Okafur, Steve Francis and even strong players like Deron Williams who couldn't carry Utah to the Finals and then left the team (after getting his coach to "quit"...rumor).



    A good GM just sits back and lets the idiots fail miserably in the draft, picks the cheaper (rookie scale) players later on, and then swindles those same GMs in trades (um, Tyrus T for Aldridge) or just outright buys the proven players away from the team that drafted them, especially the "bargain" FAs that are just a tic off the big money level but still strong (see D West, C Billups). Often the best moves come from abusing guys trying to tank or clear cap space due to bad spending.
    Last edited by Naptown_Seth; 12-23-2013 at 01:56 PM.

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  21. #39
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    Default Re: The NBA's Possible Solution for Tanking: Good-bye to the Lottery, Hello to the Wheel

    This wheel layout blows. This didn't take much to come up with and simpler isn't better in this case.
    .

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  23. #40
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    Default Re: The NBA's Possible Solution for Tanking: Good-bye to the Lottery, Hello to the Wheel

    Wow! A 30 year Cycle? Crazy. Thats just stupid. You'd have some teams that go 20+ years with out getting a meaningful pick? Not to mention the type of contracts that would need to be given out. Assuming your picks get sequentially better year to year, you'd have top 5 picks for 5 years. How you keep that kind of talent with a salary cap? What if you draft terribly and all your picks are a bust, you gonna be bad for the next 25 years? Free Agents aren't clamoring to sign in Milwaukee, or Charlotte or Utah and similar teams. Can you imagine being a fan of a team that you know had no chance at a top 5 pick for 25 years?

    What they need to do is develop the D league and have a second draft where the teams who are are in the bottom 15 or what ever get a reverse draft and can draft any player from the D league. That way these teams who are in Purgatory have a legit chance of adding a quality player who could crack the rotation, and make them better.
    You can't get champagne from a garden hose.

  24. #41

    Default Re: The NBA's Possible Solution for Tanking: Good-bye to the Lottery, Hello to the Wheel

    Why not just make all the 30 teams be in the lottery with having the same odds at getting the #1 pick?

    This will surely stop the tanking as even the best team in the previous season can get a top pick coming into the next season.

    It may look unfair at first because it is possible that a strong team can get even stronger with a top rookie prospect, but for me this is the best solution to make teams get better value out of their picks and make improvements through trades and also prevent teams from tanking because tanking because useless.

  25. #42
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    Default Re: The NBA's Possible Solution for Tanking: Good-bye to the Lottery, Hello to the Wheel

    Quote Originally Posted by 15th parallel View Post
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    Why not just make all the 30 teams be in the lottery with having the same odds at getting the #1 pick?

    This will surely stop the tanking as even the best team in the previous season can get a top pick coming into the next season.

    It may look unfair at first because it is possible that a strong team can get even stronger with a top rookie prospect, but for me this is the best solution to make teams get better value out of their picks and make improvements through trades and also prevent teams from tanking because tanking because useless.
    LOL....TV would love that....that one show might become the highest rated NBA event of the season surpassing even the biggest NBA finals or Christmas games...

  26. #43
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    Default Re: The NBA's Possible Solution for Tanking: Good-bye to the Lottery, Hello to the Wheel

    Changed my mind based on some of these posts. Not in favor of this anymore.

  27. #44
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    Default Re: The NBA's Possible Solution for Tanking: Good-bye to the Lottery, Hello to the Wheel

    Quote Originally Posted by Eleazar View Post
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    If it didn't work people wouldn't value higher draft picks.

    The reason there are perennial lotto teams is because it takes more than just a few high draft picks. First talent isn't guaranteed, a high draft pick helps you by putting you in a position to draft better talent but does not guarantee better talent. The second is you have to keep that talent around longer than their first contract. Finally you have to have a coach that establishes a good culture, and knows how to develop his talent. For example, if you put Jordan Crawford on the Pacers in place of Lance, and I bet we are talking about him in similar ways as we are for Lance. Put Lance on a team with less discipline, and he probably never grows into the player he has become.

    Makes me wish Vogel was our head coach the whole time McBob was here, he had a lot of potential if he just had a coach that could have guided him in the right direction. More towards a West like player, and less towards a Copeland type player.
    You and I actually agree but I wanted to nitpick one logic angle in your post...

    If Ponzi schemes didn't work why do people keep joining them?

    A lot of people get made GM without really proving any GM skills. How do you prove you know A) how to draft B) how to trade C) how to spend? Is it all draft scouts as GM...how many GMs were head scouts? How many GMs were somehow leads on making trades PRIOR to being GMs? How many were making the spending calls PRIOR to being GM?

    Bird, Jordan, McHale - their qualifications for GM were "I played the game". Spotting talent in others is not the same as having talent yourself. A poor player can know what's right even if he can't do it himself, thus the many non-star players that become good coaches, or non pro-players that are good coaches.

    There isn't really an NCAA/assistant coach version of "GM". Yes a team has scouts and financial advisors, contract lawyers, cap specialists, etc, but how many of those guys get known by other teams in a "Brian Shaw" or "Tibs" kind of way where they start to become the next hot GM to hire? I would think a lot more in-house GM advising goes unknown in NBA circles than potential head coaches do. Technically a college coach could be seen to be proving his ability to identify talent based on how he recruits, but a guy like Calipari doesn't move into a GM-only NBA role ever, and with dirty play in NCAA skewing which players go where it's hard to know if a guy has a great eye for talent or just more booster money.


    So you don't have a group of people at the GM position that have proven they know how to run a company, let alone a sports company. So what they value often seems to be just as shallow as what a casual fan does. To me this is why the Spurs can continue get the best of people or why Jerry West stood out so much. A competent GM is like a shark swimming among wounded guppies.



    And I really agree about the impact of having a good coach, or a coach that shares your vision of where your team currently is at and how it needs to get to the next step. If JOB had been less "win now" when Bird clearly was sending the "3 year plan" message, then he might have got on with actually focusing on improving Roy, Paul, Josh, and others stuck in his weird doghouse. That would have led to losing but with improvements which end up with him keeping his job based on visible progress rather than actually backsliding. Bird missed on that one, especially the extension.

    It's one reason why I like Bird more as a GM now - experience. He got burned with JOB, he got burned by Ron and Shawne. I think it impacted how he handled Lance (it would seem based on the success) and probably his support for Vogel. I don't think Bird was a good GM at first, though he probably wasn't terrible either. But he's become good through errors and learning.
    Last edited by Naptown_Seth; 12-23-2013 at 02:17 PM.

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  29. #45

    Default Re: The NBA's Possible Solution for Tanking: Good-bye to the Lottery, Hello to the Wheel

    I think that rampant, widespread tanking is as big a threat to the integrity of the league as any it has ever faced.

    Thus I am very open to considering something like this, as drastic as it seems.
    The poster "pacertom" since this forum began (and before!). I changed my name here to "Slick Pinkham" in honor of the imaginary player That Bobby "Slick" Leonard picked late in the 1971 ABA draft (true story!)

  30. #46
    Artificial Intelligence wintermute's Avatar
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    Default Re: The NBA's Possible Solution for Tanking: Good-bye to the Lottery, Hello to the Wheel

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    A good GM just sits back and lets the idiots fail miserably in the draft, picks the cheaper (rookie scale) players later on, and then swindles those same GMs in trades (um, Tyrus T for Aldridge) or just outright buys the proven players away from the team that drafted them, especially the "bargain" FAs that are just a tic off the big money level but still strong (see D West, C Billups). Often the best moves come from abusing guys trying to tank or clear cap space due to bad spending.
    I think what you're saying is that you're ok with the current system because we've had good GMs and they get to abuse the bad GMs who buy into the draft lottery as the one true way to build a contender. My thought on that is that for the NBA as a whole, it would be a lot better if ALL the teams had good GMs. Thus, the NBA ought to promote systems that weed out bad GMs. Winning games, of course, is the best measuring stick.

    The problem with the current draft system IMO is that it messes up that measuring stick, since it's generally very hard to tell whether a team is losing due to strategy or due to incompetence. So potentially bad GMs get an extended shelf life while selling their lottery plans to a gullible owner and fanbase. 5 years later, if that GM turns out to suck at drafting, then what? The GM gets fired, but the team has lost 5 years and have to start over again, with possibly yet another GM who is selling salvation coming through the draft.

  31. #47

    Default Re: The NBA's Possible Solution for Tanking: Good-bye to the Lottery, Hello to the Wheel

    They should just have the draft be an auction. Every team has at least $1m. After that teams can use their open cap space. It rewards teams who make good financial decisions, gives an advantage to teams who can't build through free agency, and it eliminates tanking. The only downside is that rookies would get overpaid, but that's a decision teams make.

  32. #48
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    Default Re: The NBA's Possible Solution for Tanking: Good-bye to the Lottery, Hello to the Wheel

    Quote Originally Posted by MUpaceSIC View Post
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    My only change would be to re-draw every 5 or 10 years instead of 30. That way you are still guaranteed two top 6 picks every 10 years.
    Why? The way it's drawn up you would get 3 top six picks every 11 years. I like it!

  33. #49
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    Default Re: The NBA's Possible Solution for Tanking: Good-bye to the Lottery, Hello to the Wheel

    Quote Originally Posted by Infinite MAN_force View Post
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    I still think you need some kind of weighted system. I'm open to making it less weighted but how is this any better than just putting all the teams in the lottery with equal odds?

    What if you are a bad team on a really "bad" part of your cycle picking at the end of the first round? Absolutely no hope for improvement. What if you are the best team in the league and just happen to up for the number 1 pick, I don't like it.
    Even if you are a really bad team you still get 3 top 6 picks every 11 years. If you get no improvement it's management.

  34. #50
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    Default Re: The NBA's Possible Solution for Tanking: Good-bye to the Lottery, Hello to the Wheel

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    It's one reason why I like Bird more as a GM now - experience. He got burned with JOB, he got burned by Ron and Shawne. I think it impacted how he handled Lance (it would seem based on the success) and probably his support for Vogel. I don't think Bird was a good GM at first, though he probably wasn't terrible either. But he's become good through errors and learning.

    I really enjoyed reading your series of posts in this thread. I'm not a proponent of tanking either and I love how the Pacers have built this team. Take advantage of good picks like 10 and 17 to get some studs (PG and Hibbert), draft "OK" players with other picks (Rush and Hansbrough), trade a pick for a proven player (Hill), gamble on a second rounder with tremendous upside (Born Ready), dump an expiring for a decent young player (Murph for Collison), use FA money for an icing on the cake addition (West), and then trade the following year's first rounder (a guaranteed late pick) for a guy like Scola.

    Sure, tanking works when you get freaking Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook in back to back years, but for every OKC there are two Torontos.

    I do disagree with you that Bird got burned by Artest. He got burned only in the since that he wasn't able to clean up someone else's mess. Walsh was the one who traded for Artest and then signed him to an extension before the 02-03 season when Bird wasn't even yet in the picture. It's true that Bird publicly stuck with Artest after the brawl with the PR SI issue and such, but I seriously doubt that Bird would have done that stuff without the approval of Walsh and Simon. I'm not going to criticize Bird for getting burned by Artest when it was Walsh who started the fire to begin with. I don't judge a GM based off of how they go about immediately cleaning up someone else's mess. I instead judge them by how they do once they've had a few years to implement their own team. I'll give Bird blame for Williams, but definitely not Artest.

    Bird started his GM tenure here behind the 8 ball because Walsh's early 2000's moves before Bird came were a foundation built on sand. After the brawl (a little over a year into Bird's tenure), our front office's sole task was to dig themselves out of a massive hole. JO, Artest, Tinsley....all Walsh guys who were brought in before Bird arrived on the scene. Jackson was signed by the two headed monster. Then we panicked and made the hideous GS trade, and Chris Mullin said he only talked with Walsh. From 03-08, it was just impossible to know how good of a GM Bird was because there was just too much of Walsh's crappy moves clouding the picture. Walsh leaving in 2008 and Bird getting the team to himself really did save the franchise. What we have seen from 08-present from Bird is pure GM wizardry, which makes me think that the franchise ultimately would have been way better off if Walsh had left in 2003 instead of 2008.

    Bird's willingness to stay with JOB for as long as he did was certainly indefensible, no doubt about that.
    Last edited by Sollozzo; 12-23-2013 at 03:19 PM.

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