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Thread: Guess the Score 12/22/2013 Celtics

  1. #26
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    Default Re: Guess the Score 12/22/2013 Celtics

    Pacers - 103
    Celtics - 86

  2. #27
    Sorry for bad english Rasmus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Guess the Score 12/22/2013 Celtics

    Pacers 98
    Celtics 96

  3. #28
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    Default Re: Guess the Score 12/22/2013 Celtics

    Pacers 97
    Celtics 84

  4. #29
    All Hail CJ Watson! Nuntius's Avatar
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    Default Re: Guess the Score 12/22/2013 Celtics

    Pacers 98
    Celtics 88
    Tonight, all flags must burn, in place of steeples.
    Autonomy must return into the hands of the people.

    Panopticon

    -------------

    CJ Watson - 20 points on 6/10 shooting!

    13/4/2014

  5. #30
    The light, not the lie. kester99's Avatar
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    Default Re: Guess the Score 12/22/2013 Celtics

    Pacers 99
    Celtics 89
    [~]) ... Cheers! Go Pacers!

  6. #31
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    Default Re: Guess the Score 12/22/2013 Celtics

    Pacers 95
    Celtics 87

  7. #32
    Member rabid's Avatar
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    Default Re: Guess the Score 12/22/2013 Celtics

    Pacers 94
    Celtics 80

  8. #33
    Member Eleazar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Guess the Score 12/22/2013 Celtics

    Pacers 98
    Celtics 85

  9. #34
    bleed Blue & Gold PacersPride's Avatar
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    Default Re: Guess the Score 12/22/2013 Celtics

    pacers 101
    green guy 84

  10. #35

    Post This Contest Is Closed

    This guess the score contest is now closed. The following guesses have been successfully recorded:

    Code:
    Poster                          Pacers      Opponent    
    Alabama-Redneck                           97          90
    BillS                                     99          90
    BlueCollar                               100          75
    DJVendetta                                93          84
    Doug                                      99          80
    Eleazar                                   98          85
    Grimp                                    100          70
    Il Ragionier Ugo Fantozzi                 92          87
    KingGeorge_24                            125          52
    LucasRL13                                 99          92
    Miller_time04                             94          82
    Mr_Smith                                 105          97
    Nuntius                                   98          88
    PacersPride                              101          84
    Randolph_HorseLips                        95          85
    Rasmus                                    98          96
    RomanGabriel                             103          86
    Sherlock                                 103          92
    able                                     103          86
    circlecitysportsfan                       97          84
    colts19                                  105          89
    croz24                                    90          93
    hoosierguy                                96          89
    jeffg-body                                98          84
    kester99                                  99          89
    mildlysane                               104          93
    owl                                      103          92
    rabid                                     94          80
    solid                                    102          88
    special ed                                95          87
    travmil                                  105          90
    zaldylee                                 104          84
    RoboDoug                                 106          84
    Rejected Posts:
    Post 1756225, User jeffg-body, Reason: Superceded by post 1756655


    HomePointsV3,4306044,8.22,2013-01-03/VisitorPointsV3,2751447,8.12,2011-12-24

  11. #36

    Default Re: Guess the Score 12/22/2013 Celtics

    Me and BlueCollar were the closest. He spotted Boston 5 more points than I did though.

  12. #37

    Post Drumroll please...

    Code:
    Final score:
    
    Pacers               106
    Celtics               79
    
    Code:
                                                                          ------------------------------------ Season -----------------------------------
                                                            Right                   Total                           Right   Right Perfect   Total Average
    Poster                      IND   BOS   OffBy    Rank  Winner  Points    Rank  Points   First  Second   Third  Winner Percent Guesses Guesses   OffBy
    ------------------------  ----- ----- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
    RoboDoug                    106    84       5       1       1      10       2      58       3       1       1      22   81.5%       0      27    16.6
    zaldylee                    104    84       7       2       1       7      47       8       0       1       0       2  100.0%       0       2     9.5
    Doug                         99    80       8       3       1       4      14      38       1       1       1      20   80.0%       0      25    17.4
    able                        103    86      10       4       1       1      23      26       0       0       2      20   80.0%       0      25    16.6
    BlueCollar                  100    75      10       4       1       1      33      18       0       1       0      12   75.0%       0      16    18.3
    PacersPride                 101    84      10       4       1       1      60       2       0       0       0       2   66.7%       0       3    37.0
    RomanGabriel                103    86      10       4       1       1      18      32       1       0       1      20   76.9%       0      26    14.6
    colts19                     105    89      11       8       1       1       7      49       1       3       1      19   76.0%       0      25    15.4
    travmil                     105    90      12       9       1       1       9      44       1       0       2      19   82.6%       1      23    13.1
    jeffg-body                   98    84      13      10       1       1      60       2       0       0       0       2   66.7%       0       3    10.0
    rabid                        94    80      13      10       1       1       6      51       2       2       0      21   77.8%       0      27    15.7
    solid                       102    88      13      10       1       1      41      10       0       0       0      10   66.7%       0      15    15.4
    circlecitysportsfan          97    84      14      13       1       1      34      17       1       0       0       8  100.0%       0       8    11.1
    Eleazar                      98    85      14      13       1       1      16      36       1       1       0      21   80.8%       0      26    14.4
    Grimp                       100    70      15      15       1       1      71       1       0       0       0       1  100.0%       0       1    15.0
    Miller_time04                94    82      15      15       1       1      20      31       0       1       1      22   81.5%       0      27    14.1
    mildlysane                  104    93      16      17       1       1      17      35       2       0       0      17   85.0%       0      20    15.9
    owl                         103    92      16      17       1       1       9      44       2       0       1      23   85.2%       0      27    14.1
    Sherlock                    103    92      16      17       1       1      31      20       0       0       0      20   83.3%       0      24    14.2
    kester99                     99    89      17      20       1       1      25      22       0       0       2      16   80.0%       0      20    15.5
    Nuntius                      98    88      17      20       1       1       3      57       4       0       0      21   84.0%       0      25    13.3
    Randolph_HorseLips           95    85      17      20       1       1      11      43       1       2       0      22   84.6%       0      26    16.9
    BillS                        99    90      18      23       1       1      13      42       1       2       0      21   80.8%       0      26    13.4
    DJVendetta                   93    84      18      23       1       1      11      43       1       2       0      22   84.6%       0      26    16.2
    Mr_Smith                    105    97      19      25       1       1      18      32       1       1       0      17   70.8%       0      24    15.6
    special ed                   95    87      19      25       1       1      39      12       0       1       0       6   85.7%       0       7    16.3
    Alabama-Redneck              97    90      20      27       1       1      25      22       1       0       0      13   72.2%       0      18    15.2
    hoosierguy                   96    89      20      27       1       1      36      15       1       0       1       3   60.0%       0       5    21.2
    LucasRL13                    99    92      20      27       1       1       5      53       2       1       0      19   79.2%       1      24    15.8
    Il Ragionier Ugo Fantozzi    92    87      22      30       1       1       1      63       3       0       2      20   76.9%       1      26    14.7
    Rasmus                       98    96      25      31       1       1      21      29       0       1       1      20   80.0%       0      25    16.6
    croz24                       90    93      30      32       0       0      32      19       0       2       0       7   25.9%       0      27    20.6
    KingGeorge_24               125    52      46      33       1       1      71       1       0       0       0       1  100.0%       0       1    46.0

  13. #38
    The New Gold Swagger travmil's Avatar
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    Default Re: Guess the Score 12/22/2013 Celtics

    Another blowout, another win for RoboDoug. If we were to classify a blowout as any margin of 15 or more, I wonder what Robo's win % is vs. the field in those situations. His win % vs. the field has to be good anyway so I wonder if it's higher than it is in non blowouts.
    Last edited by travmil; 12-22-2013 at 09:26 PM.

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  15. #39
    All Hail CJ Watson! Nuntius's Avatar
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    Default Re: Guess the Score 12/22/2013 Celtics

    Quote Originally Posted by travmil View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Another blowout, another win for RoboDoug. If we were to classify a blowout as any margin of 15 or more, I wonder what Robo's win % is vs. the field in those situations. His win % vs. the field has to be good anyway so I wonder if it's higher than it is in non blowouts.
    If more blowouts equal more RoboDoug wins then let's hope that RoboDoug keeps winning
    Tonight, all flags must burn, in place of steeples.
    Autonomy must return into the hands of the people.

    Panopticon

    -------------

    CJ Watson - 20 points on 6/10 shooting!

    13/4/2014

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  17. #40
    Member Doug's Avatar
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    Default Re: Guess the Score 12/22/2013 Celtics

    I find it more interesting that he is actually picking us to win by 20 points or so.

    The evolved solutions are judged only by off-by. Because of that, I've always though he tended toward more "average" scores - like both in the 90s. This season I turned the self-correction completely off. Maybe the self-correction (he would basically take his guesses and go through all previous games where he guessed the same and then adjust the guess based on those results) was pushing him more toward "average".

    Clearly, he really likes what we are doing statistics-wise.

    His projected average off-by is 16.34 and his actual is 16.6, so he's running pretty close to the projected.

    I ran some of the historical seasons when I changed the scoring. If you made me guess, RoboDoug will finish in the 6-8 place range this year, assuming the guess volume keeps at these levels.

    (I do have a completely new version of his guesser that I'm working on - using a different type of genetic program representation and more detailed statistics. That should (eventually) be better than his current guesser, but I suspect even with that he will be "competitive" but not "dominant" in the new format of the contest.)

    Quite a few posters have average off-bys better than 16.6, so I suspect this little hot streak will be short lived.
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