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Thread: How many tough road games do we really have left?

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    Administrator Unclebuck's Avatar
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    Default How many tough road games do we really have left?

    One way I like to think about the schedule is to look at how many tough road games are left on the schedule?

    I think we all can agree that we just played 5 extremely difficult road games.
    LA Clippers
    Portland
    San Antonio
    OKC
    Miami.

    The Pacers are tied for the third best record, but these other teams have the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th best records in the NBA. In other words those are to this point in the season the 5 toughest road games any team can play. Well unless you replace the Clips with the Pacers. But those 5 teams are a combined 53-8 at home to this point in the season.

    I expect every team listed above except the Clippers to probably win 60 plus games. And the Clippers will probably 58 games or so.

    But the best news is we only play one of those teams again on the road and that is the Heat.

    So I was looking at the rest of the schedule. Trying to come up with some tough road games.

    We do of course have the Heat, but besides that we have
    Houston
    Warriors
    Dallas Mavs
    Denver Nuggets.

    I think at worst we will go 2-2 in those games, probably 3-1. Pacers are better than all 4 of those teams. I cannot say the same about the teams we just played. Pacers might be as good as the Heat, Thunder, Spurs, Blazers and Clippers. But are they better than any of those teams? Maybe the Clippers, OK, but not the other four.

    Unless a couple of the east teams start to play well. Hawks, Pistons, Wizards, seem like the most likely candidates along with maybe the Celitcs if they get Asik and if Rondo comes back.

    My main point is the worst of the schedule is over. I think we all knew that, but I hope this post makes it clear.

    edit: let me add the Knicks just got Chandler back and the Nets are playing better. Both are pretty talented and have very experienced players, so they could at some point start to play well or maybe not
    Last edited by Unclebuck; 12-19-2013 at 03:48 PM.

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    Default Re: How many tough road games do we really have left?

    This is why I think people are overreacting when they say that we are "4-4 after a 16-1 start". Yes, that's certainly true, but that 4-4 stretch included a brutal Western road trip as well as two games against the Heat. It was the toughest stretch of the season. The Detroit loss was disappointing, but it's the NBA and anyone can beat anyone. Plus Detroit is a decent team who also beat Miami. There was no way that the Pacers were going to keep winning at a 16-1 pace, and the recent 4-4 stretch has averaged our record out to a normal level. All in all, 4-4 isn't too bad when you look at the brutality of the opponents. That being said, there are some sloppy things that we need to improve on and I really want to see us take care of Houston tomorrow night. If we win that one, then things will be looking great.
    Last edited by Sollozzo; 12-19-2013 at 03:44 PM.

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    Administrator Unclebuck's Avatar
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    Default Re: How many tough road games do we really have left?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    This is why I think people are overreacting when they say that we are "4-4 after a 16-1 start". Yes, that's certainly true, but that 4-4 stretch included a brutal Western road trip as well as two games against the Heat. It was the toughest stretch of the season. The Detroit loss was disappointing, but it's the NBA and anyone can beat anyone. Plus Detroit is a decent team who also beat Miami. There was no way that the Pacers were going to keep winning at a 16-1 pace, and the recent 4-4 stretch has averaged our record out to a normal level. All in all, 4-4 isn't too bad when you look at the brutality of the opponents. That being said, there are some sloppy things that we need to improve on and I really want to see us take care of Houston tomorrow night. If we win that one, then things will be looking great.

    Yes and if 4-4 is our worst stretch record wise of the season, we are in good shape.

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    Default Re: How many tough road games do we really have left?

    Not basing this purely off of opponents, but they have a 5 game WC roadtrip, GS/PHX/Sac/Den/LAL, still Jan 20-28. That looks like the toughest portion of the schedule left. Not to mention it's bookended by LAC and PHX at home.
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    Default Re: How many tough road games do we really have left?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    This is why I think people are overreacting when they say that we are "4-4 after a 16-1 start". Yes, that's certainly true, but that 4-4 stretch included a brutal Western road trip as well as two games against the Heat. It was the toughest stretch of the season. The Detroit loss was disappointing, but it's the NBA and anyone can beat anyone. Plus Detroit is a decent team who also beat Miami. There was no way that the Pacers were going to keep winning at a 16-1 pace, and the recent 4-4 stretch has averaged our record out to a normal level. All in all, 4-4 isn't too bad when you look at the brutality of the opponents. That being said, there are some sloppy things that we need to improve on and I really want to see us take care of Houston tomorrow night. If we win that one, then things will be looking great.
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    Default Re: How many tough road games do we really have left?

    For an Eastern Conference team our schedule has been relatively tough. The last 8 games were our tough stretch.

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    Default Re: How many tough road games do we really have left?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    This is why I think people are overreacting when they say that we are "4-4 after a 16-1 start". Yes, that's certainly true, but that 4-4 stretch included a brutal Western road trip as well as two games against the Heat. It was the toughest stretch of the season. The Detroit loss was disappointing, but it's the NBA and anyone can beat anyone. Plus Detroit is a decent team who also beat Miami. There was no way that the Pacers were going to keep winning at a 16-1 pace, and the recent 4-4 stretch has averaged our record out to a normal level. All in all, 4-4 isn't too bad when you look at the brutality of the opponents. That being said, there are some sloppy things that we need to improve on and I really want to see us take care of Houston tomorrow night. If we win that one, then things will be looking great.
    Yup, only one of those loses was a bad lose. Those sometimes happen. Wouldn't be surprising if over the next 15 games or whatever, we get back on pace for 68+ wins.

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    Default Re: How many tough road games do we really have left?

    Or put another way: Besides the game in Miami will there be another game the rest of the season where the Pacers are not favored to win? Honestly I don't follow the betting lines, but I think the Pacers will be favored to win every game the rest of the way except the Heat in Miami. Am I wrong

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    Default Re: How many tough road games do we really have left?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    This is why I think people are overreacting when they say that we are "4-4 after a 16-1 start". Yes, that's certainly true, but that 4-4 stretch included a brutal Western road trip as well as two games against the Heat. It was the toughest stretch of the season. The Detroit loss was disappointing, but it's the NBA and anyone can beat anyone. Plus Detroit is a decent team who also beat Miami. There was no way that the Pacers were going to keep winning at a 16-1 pace, and the recent 4-4 stretch has averaged our record out to a normal level. All in all, 4-4 isn't too bad when you look at the brutality of the opponents. That being said, there are some sloppy things that we need to improve on and I really want to see us take care of Houston tomorrow night. If we win that one, then things will be looking great.
    That's exactly right. Brutal recent schedule. Roy and GHill owe us a big game tomorrow!

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    Default Re: How many tough road games do we really have left?

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    Or put another way: Besides the game in Miami will there be another game the rest of the season where the Pacers are not favored to win? Honestly I don't follow the betting lines, but I think the Pacers will be favored to win every game the rest of the way except the Heat in Miami. Am I wrong
    You are right. Next months schedule is cake compared to this month. I think the Pacers can win a ton of games from here on out

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    Default Re: How many tough road games do we really have left?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ragnar View Post
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    You are right. Next months schedule is cake compared to this month. I think the Pacers can win a ton of games from here on out
    speaking of schedule, i noticed that the pacers have 18 back to backs this year and the heat have only 11. i understand that things will vary from year to year however, that is quite a substantial difference and one i would love to hear explained by the soon to be leaving commish.
    i also heard that for the last 6 years, two teams have had the most back to backs-
    Charlotte and Indiana.
    why those 2 seem to keep getting the raw deal of scheduling is a curious thing in my book.

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    Default Re: How many tough road games do we really have left?

    Quote Originally Posted by clownskull View Post
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    speaking of schedule, i noticed that the pacers have 18 back to backs this year and the heat have only 11. i understand that things will vary from year to year however, that is quite a substantial difference and one i would love to hear explained by the soon to be leaving commish.
    i also heard that for the last 6 years, two teams have had the most back to backs-
    Charlotte and Indiana.
    why those 2 seem to keep getting the raw deal of scheduling is a curious thing in my book.
    Not to be nit-picking but Miami has 17 back-to-back sets this season.
    I would rather be the hammer than the nail

  20. #13

    Default Re: How many tough road games do we really have left?

    Ya, there is no tough road games in the East beside Miami.
    That helps.
    And we only play west road games once per team.

    Sucked East helps our record, that is undeniable.

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    Default Re: How many tough road games do we really have left?

    I count 28 road games left at this point.

    Out of those 28 games:
    1.) 10 of them come on the end of back-to-backs.
    2.) 5 of them come at the beginning of back-to-backs.
    3.) 13 come with only 1 or 2 days of rest before and after the game.
    4.) All of them involve having to travel which can be fatiguing.
    5.) All of them will be against teams who don't want to lose on their
    home courts and will give the Pacers their best shots, thus won't
    be easy games.

    Therefore, my best guess would be that we have 28 tough road
    games left.
    "I've been through the fire, and what the fire doesn't destroy it hardens...
    and I'm hardened!
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    Default Re: How many tough road games do we really have left?

    Quote Originally Posted by Alabama-Redneck View Post
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    Not to be nit-picking but Miami has 17 back-to-back sets this season.
    i recounted. and yes, you are correct. i feel a bit silly that i could have missed several of those. maybe my eyes were tired? yes that's it!

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    Default Re: How many tough road games do we really have left?

    Quote Originally Posted by RamBo_Lamar View Post
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    I count 28 road games left at this point.

    Out of those 28 games:
    1.) 10 of them come on the end of back-to-backs.
    2.) 5 of them come at the beginning of back-to-backs.
    3.) 13 come with only 1 or 2 days of rest before and after the game.
    4.) All of them involve having to travel which can be fatiguing.
    5.) All of them will be against teams who don't want to lose on their
    home courts and will give the Pacers their best shots, thus won't
    be easy games.

    Therefore, my best guess would be that we have 28 tough road
    games left.
    Really road games require travel?

    (just thought that was funny)

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    Default Re: How many tough road games do we really have left?

    Quote Originally Posted by RamBo_Lamar View Post
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    I count 28 road games left at this point.

    Out of those 28 games:
    1.) 10 of them come on the end of back-to-backs.
    @Brooklyn
    @Toronto
    @Cleveland
    @Atlanta
    @Denver
    @Atlanta (again?)
    @Minnesota
    @Charlotte
    @Detroit
    @Memphis

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    Default Re: How many tough road games do we really have left?

    I think that Detroit will be a tough road game. The Nets are done if Lopez is out for the rest of the season, not worried about them much, but Detroit matched up well with us during our home loss, and I fully expect them to be the 5th seed in the east and probably even edge out Boston for the 4th seed come the end of April. So I wouldn't be surprised if we lose to them on the road.

    I'm glad that we likely won't have to play Detorit in the first round; not because I don't think we can beat them, but because it could go 5 or 6 games.

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    Default Re: How many tough road games do we really have left?

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    One way I like to think about the schedule is to look at how many tough road games are left on the schedule?

    I think we all can agree that we just played 5 extremely difficult road games.
    LA Clippers
    Portland
    San Antonio
    OKC
    Miami.

    The Pacers are tied for the third best record, but these other teams have the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th best records in the NBA. In other words those are to this point in the season the 5 toughest road games any team can play. Well unless you replace the Clips with the Pacers. But those 5 teams are a combined 53-8 at home to this point in the season.

    I expect every team listed above except the Clippers to probably win 60 plus games. And the Clippers will probably 58 games or so.

    But the best news is we only play one of those teams again on the road and that is the Heat.

    So I was looking at the rest of the schedule. Trying to come up with some tough road games.

    We do of course have the Heat, but besides that we have
    Houston
    Warriors
    Dallas Mavs
    Denver Nuggets.

    I think at worst we will go 2-2 in those games, probably 3-1. Pacers are better than all 4 of those teams. I cannot say the same about the teams we just played. Pacers might be as good as the Heat, Thunder, Spurs, Blazers and Clippers. But are they better than any of those teams? Maybe the Clippers, OK, but not the other four.

    Unless a couple of the east teams start to play well. Hawks, Pistons, Wizards, seem like the most likely candidates along with maybe the Celitcs if they get Asik and if Rondo comes back.

    My main point is the worst of the schedule is over. I think we all knew that, but I hope this post makes it clear.

    edit: let me add the Knicks just got Chandler back and the Nets are playing better. Both are pretty talented and have very experienced players, so they could at some point start to play well or maybe not
    I had a tweet about this a few weeks ago. The @DEN is a mile high game after playing in Sacto the night before. @PHX is dangerous cause they are playing well. @GSW is tough cause they shoot so well there. Houston and Dallas are iffy, hard to read either of those teams as consistent.

    @Miami as you said.


    So on Dec 2nd (ie, need to look at current Win%) I noted that after Jan 28th the Pacers would have only 5 more road games vs team +500, out of 38 total games (33-5 if you only lose road games to winning teams). Now you can lose at home and to weaker teams on the road, but you can also beat +500 teams on the road as the Pacers have already done.

    Also as of Dec 2nd I had the Pacers only playing 3 road games vs teams over 600 after Dec 19 (ie, since that Miami game) and it's still true -> MIA, HOU, PHX

    There are only 8 games left vs teams over 500 right now -> MIA, HOU, PHX, GSW, DEN, DAL, ATL (2)

    The only thing that worries me really is that most of March is on the road, lots of short trips where they probably return to Indy that night (like MEM) but still just a lot of travel. That could potentially wear on them I suppose.



    But 65 wins gives them 17 losses, they've used up 5 of those so 12 remain. Even if you lose all 8 road games vs +500 teams (they won't) they could still lose 4 at home too and get to 65 wins. Of course there will be a few more Detroit surprises but there will also be some quality wins on the road too. It's pretty nuts realizing what this team can do.


    Oh, and Granger is back now. Impact? Well 2 home wins of virtually +30 (the BOS game was on cruise since the mid-2nd).

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    Default Re: How many tough road games do we really have left?

    Quote Originally Posted by Unclebuck View Post
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    Or put another way: Besides the game in Miami will there be another game the rest of the season where the Pacers are not favored to win? Honestly I don't follow the betting lines, but I think the Pacers will be favored to win every game the rest of the way except the Heat in Miami. Am I wrong
    Hmmm...MIA line will probably be Heat -2.5

    HOU line might be, but after the game the other night I'd say Houston better put on a clinic before they host Indy to get a line in their favor. Right now no way would it be. Probably HOU +6

    I could maybe see it being PHX +1

    I don't think GSW, ATL, or DAL get favorable lines. Definitely not DEN despite the circumstances going into that game.


    So I think you are onto something. They seem likely to lose more games than they will be favored to lose, which is darn impressive. Nice to see them earn that potential respect. Of course they must keep winning but that seems likely right now.

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    Default Re: How many tough road games do we really have left?

    One other thing I tweeted around the same time I was looking at the schedule, which kinda fits in here too.


    COULD THE PACERS WIN THE DIVISION BY 30 GAMES?

    65-17 or 67-15
    35-47 or 37-45

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