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Thread: Purdue Professor Has NBA Draft Anti-Tanking Plan

  1. #1
    year of the black rainbow obnoxiousmodesty's Avatar
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    Default Purdue Professor Has NBA Draft Anti-Tanking Plan

    http://www.purdueexponent.org/sports...8ade7edaf.html

    I know tanking was a big topic in the Random Thoughts thread recently. This article was featured on the front page of the Purdue Student Newspaper this morning. I found it interesting but don't see this going through without a lot of adjustment. Apologies if posted elsewhere.

    Purdue professor has plan for fixing NBA draft

    By COLIN MAIRET Assistant Sports Editor | Posted: Wednesday, November 6, 2013 10:00 am

    Suck for Luck. Riggin’ for Wiggins. Tank for Teddy.

    All of these terms reference the goals of underperforming teams in professional sports and a Purdue professor has a plan to correct the problem in the NBA.

    Tim Bond, an assistant professor in the Department of Economics, and former colleague Arup Sen have developed an idea to discourage tanking.

    Currently in the NBA, draft picks are awarded based on a lottery and the worse a team finishes, the bigger chance the team will win the No. 1 pick.

    In order to prevent purposefully losing to improve lottery percentages, Bond and Sen’s system proposes eliminating the lottery and implementing an auction based off of credits.

    “You’re never going to be able to remove the incentive to lose,” Bond said. “But what you want to do is try to make the incentive to intentionally lose as low as possible.”

    In Bond and Sen’s system, credits would be awarded to teams based off of their record at the end of the season, with the worst teams receiving the most credits. The credits would be storable and could be used in any draft in the future, with credits being spent not only on the top pick, but every lottery pick.

    While the worst team would still receive the most amount of credits, Bond said the “flexibility in the form of rewarding credits (would) try and discourage teams from tanking.”

    In addition to the credits awarded based on record, Bond and Sen’s system would add or subtract credits from teams based on an objective formula. The formula would factor in various statistics that could show whether or not a team was actively tanking during a season.

    “Our goal with this formula is to use more advanced statistics than just rank order, to smooth out this formula,” Bond said. “Inside the formula would be things like (awarding) less credits if your performance in the second half of the season is worse than your first half. Basically smoothing out the payoff structure of these credits so that you didn’t have much of a benefit from losing one additional game.”

    One of the worst instances of tanking in recent years that Bond and Sen cite in their article on NBA.com was the 2011 Golden State Warriors.

    “One example of what we are trying to fix is the Golden State Warriors when they magically lost just enough to keep their draft pick,” Bond said. “It didn’t look very good at the time, it sort of looked like they were intentionally trying to get out of obligations.”

    The Warriors’ draft pick was top-7 protected, meaning they needed to finish as one of the worst seven teams in the league or they would lose their pick to the Utah Jazz. They proceeded to trade their leading scorer Monta Ellis for an injured Andrew Bogut and sat starters Stephen Curry and David Lee with vague injuries in the late portion of the year.

    The Warriors finished the season 5-22, received their top 7 pick, drafted Harrison Barnes and made the Western Conference Semifinals the next season.

    In Bond and Sen’s system, the Golden State issue would have been resolved with the new system of trading credits.

    “Trading credits instead of draft picks, that is something that would have addressed the Golden State problem,” Bond said. “You can’t escape that credit obligation. So that eliminates all that tanking to avoid your obligation of a protected draft pick, so that’s one thing we are able to eliminate without tweaking the formula.”

    Going forward, the duo plans to continue to work on their formula and hopefully present their system to NBA representatives in the upcoming months.

    “We are working to come up with a more formal proposal. I think we will know in about a month whether they are interested in getting a larger proposal from us,” Sen said. “It’s a fairly competitive process. If they are (interested), we will work on a proposal, if not we will continue to try and work on it.”
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    Running with the Big Boys BillS's Avatar
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    Default Re: Purdue Professor Has NBA Draft Anti-Tanking Plan

    Interesting. Though you could do the same thing with using the advanced statistics to modify draft order rather than adding the whole "auction" thing in.
    BillS

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    future dragon trainer Heisenberg's Avatar
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    Default Re: Purdue Professor Has NBA Draft Anti-Tanking Plan

    Hold on. I'm funding re-purposed fantasy auction drafts?

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    Default Re: Purdue Professor Has NBA Draft Anti-Tanking Plan

    Having the lottery helps, but maybe it shouldn't be weighted so heavily for the poorest records. You now tank to improve your odds a lot. Would you do that if the gain in odds was small?

    Maybe everybody should have ping pong balls in the lottery:

    NBA champion gets 1 ping pong ball in the hopper
    runner-up gets 2 ping pong balls
    conference finalist losers get 3
    conference second round losers get 4
    first round losers get 5

    14 non-playoff teams in order of record, best to worst
    6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19 balls

    Then there is no huge penalty, lottery chance-wise, for being the worst team to make the playoffs. That's just 6 balls vs. 5. Big whoop.
    Last edited by Slick Pinkham; 11-06-2013 at 05:19 PM.
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    Default Re: Purdue Professor Has NBA Draft Anti-Tanking Plan

    So this will just result in poorly managed teams just misusing their credits as well as their money.

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    Wasting Light Hicks's Avatar
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    Default Re: Purdue Professor Has NBA Draft Anti-Tanking Plan

    They just need to hammer out in writing specific algorithms to define as much 'dubious' behavior as possible, and then use that to measure the behavior of losing teams, and establish a penalty system for teams when they cross one or more objective thresholds. That could be as simple as shifting their post-draft-lottery draft spots down X spots based on how 'dubious' they behaved during the season based on said algorithms.

    I'm not saying putting those algorithms into writing would necessarily be easy, but I think the very least they could do is a assemble an NBA council comprised of owners, presidents, and GMs to hammer it out as much as possible to determine if there's enough tangible pieces of evidence they can work with to possibly make this reality.

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    Can see thru wooden doors dal9's Avatar
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    Default Re: Purdue Professor Has NBA Draft Anti-Tanking Plan

    damn, i didn't know that about GSW. So they never had to give up that pick, or they just had to give it up in a later draft? still dirty.

  10. #8
    Jimmy did what Jimmy did Bball's Avatar
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    Default Re: Purdue Professor Has NBA Draft Anti-Tanking Plan

    Quote Originally Posted by Slick Pinkham View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Having the lottery helps, but maybe it shouldn't be weighted so heavily for the poorest records. You now tank to improve your odds a lot. Would you do that if the gain in odds was small?

    Maybe everybody should have ping pong balls in the lottery:

    NBA champion gets 1 ping pong ball in the hopper
    runner-up gets 2 ping pong balls
    conference finalist losers get 3
    conference second round losers get 4
    first round losers get 5

    14 non-playoff teams in order of record, best to worst
    6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19 balls

    Then there is no huge penalty, lottery chance-wise, for being the worst team to make the playoffs. That's just 6 balls vs. 5. Big whoop.
    I kinda liked where you were going with this except after the playoff teams just make everyone equal.
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    Default Re: Purdue Professor Has NBA Draft Anti-Tanking Plan

    I kinda like the idea. In this case, a team could wind up with 3 solid rookies.

    But why not just go back to the old lottery where every non-playoff team has the same odds of landing the top pick and the same odds of being 14th? That would stop in-season tanking, at least.
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    Formerly PacerFanInAZ Cactus Jax's Avatar
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    Default Re: Purdue Professor Has NBA Draft Anti-Tanking Plan

    This complicates an already complicated system, because now not only are GM's worrying about next season's draft in this scenario, but you're looking at future drafts as well. Using the 2013 Draft and 2014 Drafts as examples, teams would've spent as little credits as they could for the 13 draft to save them all for 2014. That forces teams to be really bad for multiple seasons to look for the future but hide it well.

    Pretty much you could have the Bobcats skip all their obligation for 2013 if possible, then they'd bid for every spot they can get in the 2014 lottery in a loaded draft.
    "It's just unfortunate that we've been penalized so much this year and nothing has happened to the Pistons, the Palace or the city of Detroit," he said. "It's almost like it's always our fault. The league knows it. They should be ashamed of themselves to let the security be as lax as it is around here."

    ----------------- Reggie Miller

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    Default Re: Purdue Professor Has NBA Draft Anti-Tanking Plan

    Simple solution for that Golden State scenario is for the NBA to fine the Warriors a substantial amount of money and automatically forfeit the pick to Utah.
    "It's just unfortunate that we've been penalized so much this year and nothing has happened to the Pistons, the Palace or the city of Detroit," he said. "It's almost like it's always our fault. The league knows it. They should be ashamed of themselves to let the security be as lax as it is around here."

    ----------------- Reggie Miller

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