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Thread: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

  1. #126
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Yeah, looks like Kevin uses both.

    RHQ: One area I think that Pritchard could really help the Raptors out in, is in terms of use of statistical analysis. You touched on the topic earlier and I'd like to return to it as it's an area that Bryan has sort of shied away from to date, and that the team really hasn't had a lot of focus on. Can you extrapolate on the analytics piece; maybe how Pritchard uses stats and how in depth he gets involved in the subject, say, is it to the level of a Darryl Morey etc?

    BG: Absolutely. The funniest vignette I can describe is the one year where the Blazers were having to use their injury exemptions because so many guys were going down. Greg Oden went down, then Joel Przybilla went down, and they basically had to apply for multiple hardship exceptions so they could get enough players to even fill out a roster. That same year at the Sloan analytics conference, the Blazers actually sent more employees to that conference in Boston then they had healthy roster players at the time! They had about nine employees attend!

    And this ranged from scouting directors to guys who were number crunchers for them, and Kevin and Tom Penn would go as well. Kevin even gave a speech one year at the conference.
    So, there was a clear commitment to the analytical side of things and while maybe they weren't the pioneers like a Darryl Morey, they were certainly in that very early wave of trying to use numbers to enhance their overall ability to scout a player.

    And what they called it, and it was pretty simple, was "Eyes, Ears and Numbers." So when they're looking at a player, say it was a prospect in the Big 12 where Kevin obviously played, and some of their other scouts had really travelled that circuit well, what they were always looking at was doing an in-person evaluation multiple times. That would be the "eyes" component.

    They wanted to talk to his coaches, his college trainers, maybe teammates, local media guys that covered the team he played on. All in order to build a composite profile of what that person was about character wise, and that would be the ears component.

    And then the numbers component would not only be their normal statistics, but also their advanced statistics, how they thought those statistics would translate to the pros, was there anything they thought that would stick out in terms of efficiencies, etc, etc. There was a lot of emphasis on basic efficiency levels.

    Some of their guys who were doing their numbers either had experience on Basketball Reference, or writing about numbers on the New York Times' blog, so these were guys who were very well known within the stats community. They also had a stats projection system so at that they were able to kind of compare their system and where it said they (Portland) would finish in the Western Conference, versus what some of the other projection systems that were out there said. So they could say "yeah, we're pretty confident that we're going to be a top six team," or "top seven," or "our projections says this," etc, etc.

    So it's like any of those things you read in Basketball Prospectus or any other well known statistical analytics publications out there. These guys were all over that, and they had some of their own proprietary formulas in terms of ranking college players too, so hopefully that gives you some idea of Kevin's level of commitment. It was not just lip service at all. And actually right before he was let go by the Blazers, Pritchard became a board member of a technology firm, I believe it's located in Washington State, which is our neighbour to the north here in Oregon, so he was a consultant for that firm and clearly takes that idea of forward thinking analytics and all that stuff very seriously.
    http://www.raptorshq.com/2011/10/4/2...aptors-part-ii
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.” ― Ricky Gervais.

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  3. #127
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute View Post
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    WTH. The advanced stat crowd was the first to point out that Murphy wasn't as good as his numbers. It was clear from simple +/- and on/off stats. It was traditional GMs who drafted him, gave him a big contract, and made him the centerpiece in trades (I'm including the Pacers here, but thankfully we managed to fob him off to someone else).

    Talk about revisionist history.
    And did the advance stats people have an epiphany while looking at stats or did they see Murphy on the court, watch how defenses adjusted to him over the course of a game, watched his Ole' defense, etc... and decide that his FG% didn't tell the tale properly and sought out things to verify what they were seeing?

    Using Murphy as an example, who needed advanced metrics to see that type of stuff? Sure, they might be good for a layman who couldn't understand how Murphy's high FG% could be bad for the team.... but if you're watching and understanding the game all that the advanced metrics are going to do is confirm why the simpler stats don't tell the entire tale. And even there, if you mentally break the game down into quarters or what you see when the defense tightens, or when the other team attacks that player, you still shouldn't need to look at advanced stats to understand what you are seeing.

    Now again, I put more importance on them when we're talking players that I don't see frequently. They would give you a better understanding of their game and where to look for weaknesses in the game film or on the court.

    And I'm certainly not downplaying the importance of tracking these stats and reviewing them even for your own team. Something might hop out at you for bench guys, especially ones that get small minutes that you might want to focus on either as a coaching moment, or cause you to want to expand their minutes or role in practice to see if the stat translates to higher minutes or is an anomaly. But again, you should have a sense of what your main players are doing and shouldn't need to be tied to even the most simplest of stats to understand it.

    Where were all of you advanced metric people when Sagarin's computer told Walsh JO wasn't all that important to the team and Walsh ignored that info and went with his gut and maxed him anyway?
    Nuntius was right. I was wrong. Frank Vogel has retained his job.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by mattie View Post
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    So while this solves little, the ignorant posters will continue to assume their knowledge is profound, the educated posters simply know that your opinion is of little value.

    Now them's the facts- It is unfortunate that cognitive dissonance will always keep a certain percentage of the board among the ignorant.
    I'd take Walter White's advice and tread lightly when making assumptions about your own knowledge versus other posters. Especially when you've made it clear you don't know as much as you think you do.
    Nuntius was right. I was wrong. Frank Vogel has retained his job.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    I'd take Walter White's advice and tread lightly when making assumptions about your own knowledge versus other posters. Especially when you've made it clear you don't know as much as you think you do.
    I only know a little more than people who reject math. That's not saying much. Trust me, I don't have a high opinion of my own knowledge. I'm quite aware of my own ignorance. I only have a lower opinion of yours.
    Find me on the internets @mattiecolin

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    And did the advance stats people have an epiphany while looking at stats or did they see Murphy on the court, watch how defenses adjusted to him over the course of a game, watched his Ole' defense, etc... and decide that his FG% didn't tell the tale properly and sought out things to verify what they were seeing?

    Using Murphy as an example, who needed advanced metrics to see that type of stuff? Sure, they might be good for a layman who couldn't understand how Murphy's high FG% could be bad for the team.... but if you're watching and understanding the game all that the advanced metrics are going to do is confirm why the simpler stats don't tell the entire tale. And even there, if you mentally break the game down into quarters or what you see when the defense tightens, or when the other team attacks that player, you still shouldn't need to look at advanced stats to understand what you are seeing.
    Why in the world are we talking about Troy Murphy? It's a strawman argument, because NO ONE is saying Troy Murphy is good because of his TS%.

    Let me repeat that again, NO ONE is saying Troy Murphy is good because he has a good TS%. How hard is it to understand that TS% doesn't mean good basketball player? The whole point of this thread is to put the stat into proper context, so this Troy Murphy argument doesn't have to be had. Good lord.
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.” ― Ricky Gervais.

    What if someone from a school of business or management school were to ask, How did you do this? How did you get the Pacers turned around? Is there a general approach you've taken that can be summarized?

    Larry Bird: Yeah, patience.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    Why in the world are we talking about Troy Murphy? It's a strawman argument, because NO ONE is saying Troy Murphy is good because of his TS%.

    Let me repeat that again, NO ONE is saying Troy Murphy is good because he has a good TS%. How hard is it to understand that TS% doesn't mean good basketball player? The whole point of this thread is to put the stat into proper context, so this Troy Murphy argument doesn't have to be had. Good lord.
    I was just using Troy Murphy because his name came up. And I'm pretty sure there's common ground between myself and you on this subject anyway. In fact, I wasn't using Murphy to argue he was good because of his TS, or that he was a bad player with a good TS... I in fact ASSumed that advanced analysis would've shown what anyone watching his game would've figured out and that was his gaudy FG% from 3 didn't translate to the entire game and that his Ole' defense was so bad that teams could attack him and score at a high percentage and negate his FG% anyway. So I was using Murphy to simply say you didn't need to use advanced metrics to see the problem in his game or to understand a simple stat (like FG%) didn't tell the entire story.
    Nuntius was right. I was wrong. Frank Vogel has retained his job.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    So I was using Murphy to simply say you didn't need to use advanced metrics to see the problem in his game or to understand a simple stat (like FG%) didn't tell the entire story.
    But no one is making the argument that advanced stats do tell the whole story.
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.” ― Ricky Gervais.

    What if someone from a school of business or management school were to ask, How did you do this? How did you get the Pacers turned around? Is there a general approach you've taken that can be summarized?

    Larry Bird: Yeah, patience.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    But no one is making the argument that advanced stats do tell the whole story.
    I'm not arguing that they do.

    I am saying a stat like TS is pretty darned unimportant when it comes to your own team because it doesn't tell you anything that an understanding of the game and watching the game tells you. Especially for your main cogs who log lots of minutes. TS should simply confirm what you're seeing when you watch the game with any depth at all (which a coach should certainly fit that description and a casual fan who barely knows what the 3 point line is probably doesn't... ).

    OTOH, I can see it's importance for scouting opposing teams/players. And I can see a benefit when it comes to players that don't regularly log a lot of game minutes. You might see advanced stats telling you that you have a player that potentially needs to see his minutes increase or could be utilized situationally even better.
    Nuntius was right. I was wrong. Frank Vogel has retained his job.

    ------

    "A player who makes a team great is more valuable than a great player. Losing yourself in the group, for the good of the group, that’s teamwork."

    -John Wooden

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    As with everything, the truth lies in the middle. If you only use your eyes, you will occasionally misjudge a player, either for good or for ill. There might be a guy who doesn't look that great, but perhaps he has an elite skill that your team is lacking, making the sum of his contribution better than what you actually see on the floor because the other players play better. Likewise, if you only rely on advanced stats, you are going to miss out on some nuances to a players game that don't show up in the stats, such as, "hey, this guy likes to go to strip clubs while carrying a gun" or "if someone throws a beer on this guy, he's going to drag our franchise down for the next decade."

    The point is, use the stats as an objective way to quantify a particular aspect of a player or team. Use your eyes to see if that player subjectively is helping your team win. I think as we go forward, there will be fewer and fewer players that cause large disagreement between stats guys and eyeball guys.

    Just for fun, can we have the stats and eyeball guys give their opinioins on two players who have had interesting statistical careers? Namely, Shane Battier and Rudy Gay. My feelings are that they eyeball guys should love Battier and be relatively neutral on Gay, whereas the stats guys should me neutral on Battier and hate Gay.

    Back on topic: TS% is a great stat to see who is offensively efficient. It says nothing about any other aspect of their game. And to answer the topic title, there's no debate, TS% is a more accurate reflection of a player's ability to score the ball than FG%.
    Last edited by Eindar; 11-06-2013 at 11:43 AM.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Suppose we'd had a strong Roy-like center at the time Murphy played, who masked the flaw that makes him The Worst Player In The NBATM. First, would the eye test actually see the "matador defense"? Second, would it still offset the rebounding and scoring?

    Another question is those guys who are "quiet" double-double guys. There are a lot of games where people are surprised at someone's contributions on the floor until they look at the statistics. Does this mean that player isn't any good (since the "eye test" didn't observe anything)?

    The idea is not to describe how a player DID, it is to try to predict how a player WILL DO. The eye test is necessary but not sufficient, and the order of events (see something then check the stats OR look at the stats then see if they make sense) is neither important nor a given. Different people work in different ways, but the take-away is that you can't say one is more important than the other.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eindar View Post
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    The point is, use the stats as an objective way to quantify a particular aspect of a player or team. Use your eyes to see if that player subjectively is helping your team win.
    Or, in other words, this.
    BillS

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    I'm not arguing that they do.
    I guess I don't see the point in fighting an admitted strawman argument.
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.” ― Ricky Gervais.

    What if someone from a school of business or management school were to ask, How did you do this? How did you get the Pacers turned around? Is there a general approach you've taken that can be summarized?

    Larry Bird: Yeah, patience.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    I guess I don't see the point in fighting an admitted strawman argument.
    Somewhere I think the point was lost long ago with people choosing sides without even knowing what the other side was saying.

    IOW... Troy Murphy was never the point. Just an example or analogy that popped up in the midst of a lot of other info. For some reason, you then got focused on Troy Murphy.
    Nuntius was right. I was wrong. Frank Vogel has retained his job.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eindar View Post
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    Likewise, if you only rely on advanced stats, you are going to miss out on some nuances to a players game that don't show up in the stats, such as, "hey, this guy likes to go to strip clubs while carrying a gun"
    .

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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eindar View Post
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    Just for fun, can we have the stats and eyeball guys give their opinioins on two players who have had interesting statistical careers? Namely, Shane Battier and Rudy Gay. My feelings are that they eyeball guys should love Battier and be relatively neutral on Gay, whereas the stats guys should me neutral on Battier and hate Gay.
    My eyeballs never liked Gay and always have loved Memphis's defense.
    .

    .

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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    Somewhere I think the point was lost long ago with people choosing sides without even knowing what the other side was saying.

    IOW... Troy Murphy was never the point. Just an example or analogy that popped up in the midst of a lot of other info. For some reason, you then got focused on Troy Murphy.
    The stat was originally brought up to show Granger is a better player than perhaps some people think.

    But when the stat shows certain players considered to be bad excel in the stat . . . THEN the stat does not, never has, and has nothing to do with showing if a player is good or not.
    .

    .

    .

    .


    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    TS should simply confirm what you're seeing when you watch the game with any depth at all (which a coach should certainly fit that description and a casual fan who barely knows what the 3 point line is probably doesn't... ).
    Coach is a single human being. He can't watch every player every minute on the floor, nor are there enough assistant coaches to do so (and even if they were, they would all have different expertise and bias). There's only so much time a coach can spend watching film of his own players and still do his job of preparing for the next team. Statistics exist to help point out where problems or solutions lie because a coach is looking at the bigger picture or other aspects of the game. They also help to point out where an assistant has seen something the coach has not.

    We're all still a little traumatized by a previous coach who seemed to rely too much on statistics to evaluate his own players, but that doesn't mean they are somehow useless in that context.
    BillS

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    The stat was originally brought up to show Granger is a better player than perhaps some people think.

    But when the stat shows certain players considered to be bad excel in the stat . . . THEN the stat does not, never has, and has nothing to do with showing if a player is good or not.
    Why not? Instead of completely dismissing the stat by pointing out an outlier, wouldn't it rather demand an explanation why the problem with the stat for the outlier applies to the player in question? Unless, of course, you're saying that Danny also only went after meaningless rebounds, stole others from his own players, played matador defense, and was really not the team leader in offense when he was playing. In which case, with all due respect, I'd suggest you get your eyes examined.
    BillS

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    The stat was originally brought up to show Granger is a better player than perhaps some people think.
    The stat was brought up to combat the claim that Granger is just a chucker. You know, using stats to combat the bias people have in their eyes. And then people started arguing against the stat, because it just can't be true that Danny is actually an efficient scorer, and just not a chucker.

    Which is why this eyeball is the best argument is kinda loopy, because we are human and our biasness influences what we see. Numbers remove those bias, and give us cold hard numbers, that have no feelings about a situation.
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.” ― Ricky Gervais.

    What if someone from a school of business or management school were to ask, How did you do this? How did you get the Pacers turned around? Is there a general approach you've taken that can be summarized?

    Larry Bird: Yeah, patience.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    In the analogy, the guy who potentially gets the girl is the coach or GM. Larry Bird is the perfect example of the non-booking reading guy winning the "game."
    And Daryl Morey is the guy who reads books. Both of them have been great for their teams which indicates that it isn't about using stats or not but it's about being smart. Both traditional and stat-based GMs can be dumb and bad at their job and both traditional and stat-based GMs can be smart and great at their job.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    When I'm watching a game and I see a player take a quick, bad shot I guess I need to review advanced stats at halftime to really know that was a quick, bad shot. When the other team is making a run and we really need to stem the tide but instead waste a possession by being haphazard and forcing something rather than being situationally aware and working the clock for a better shot then I can't trust my eyes and need to review advanced stats after the game.
    Nuntius was right. I was wrong. Frank Vogel has retained his job.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    When I'm watching a game and I see a player take a quick, bad shot I guess I need to review advanced stats at halftime to really know that was a quick, bad shot.
    More strawmen I see.
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  35. #148
    All Hail CJ Watson! Nuntius's Avatar
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eindar View Post
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    As the advance metrics go forward, especially with the SportsVue stuff, the stats are going to be able to do a much better job of quantifying this, because we will be able to see visual shot charts of all players when Roy Hibbert is on the floor vs. when he is off the floor, and the same for a guy like Troy Murphy. They're also tracking how much players move, and when, so you could presumably identify a player who breaks the offense and stops the flow because his teammates are moving less when he is on the floor.
    Exactly. Statistical analysis is still growing and it was incomplete for years because they had not found a way to measure defense and effort. The SportsVU cameras and the Sloan Analytics Conference are breakthroughs in the right direction of measuring the impact of defense and other lesser analyzed data.

    PS: By the way, Morey who has based a lot of his moves in analytics was the one that offered Asik his first big contract which indicates that some stat-based GMs DID have data that measured amazing defense.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    But if you believe Troy Murphy is not helpful for winning basketball games, and someone brings you lots of positive stats on him to prove otherwise . . . then it's the opposite problem of the stat brandisher misinterpreting the stats. So it goes both ways. But I think you've already acknowledged that in other posts.
    Except that advanced stats always indicated that Murphy is not that helpful for winning basketball games
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    When I'm watching a game and I see a player take a quick, bad shot I guess I need to review advanced stats at halftime to really know that was a quick, bad shot. When the other team is making a run and we really need to stem the tide but instead waste a possession by being haphazard and forcing something rather than being situationally aware and working the clock for a better shot then I can't trust my eyes and need to review advanced stats after the game.
    And if I want to know who won the game but I wasn't able to watch it I'm SOL because I shouldn't use the numbers defined by who made more points.

    See, I can do the same thing.

    No one is saying stats are for everything. But they can help you in your thinking of whether that quick, bad shot was an anomaly (because the player makes most of his quick shots) or if it was usual (because the player doesn't make quick shots). Sitting a player in the habit of taking quick, bad shots is a good idea. Sitting one who took a shot that looked bad but was actually where he makes it most of the time is not a good idea.
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