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Thread: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

  1. #101
    Artificial Intelligence wintermute's Avatar
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    Sorry, but Murphy is the poster child for stats lacking real-world value. On paper he looked great. If you want to build your house on that sand, go on.
    WTH. The advanced stat crowd was the first to point out that Murphy wasn't as good as his numbers. It was clear from simple +/- and on/off stats. It was traditional GMs who drafted him, gave him a big contract, and made him the centerpiece in trades (I'm including the Pacers here, but thankfully we managed to fob him off to someone else).

    Talk about revisionist history.

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  3. #102
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by xIndyFan View Post
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    Jmo, but stats are used out of context all the time here. Most people use stats to 'prove' a point they already intuit true. In other words, they take a position and then use stats to back up their point. That seems backwards to me. Stats seem best used when the stat is used to identify guys that might make the team better because of their play. In this example, if a team had a guy with a good TS%, they should look at giving him more minutes. Or one of the ways the Pacers use stats to take away shots on defense that would generate a good TS%. Protect the front of the rim, protect the paint, protect the 3 pt line and don't foul.
    Thank you! This bears repeating.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by xIndyFan View Post
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    You'd have to ask Seth or the count to get a real clear explanation of the .44, but it is basically a way to quantify the extra free throws , and 1's, Tech's. Otherwise the FT part of the equation is overvalued. It is my understanding that those numbers are looked at periodically by the stat geeks and are still valid.
    0.44 is the average number of free throws that end a possession. If you think about it, that number should be 0.5 for regular FTs (which come in pairs). It becomes 0.44 after accounting for AND1's, technicals, and 3 FTs. I think it's based on historical data, and hasn't been updated since whenever.

    Some sites (like NBA.com) apparently count actual possessions instead of using the approximation, so interested people can do their own calculations to see how well it holds up.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    You tell me which guy gets the girl (wins games). The one who reads 20 books on dating and analyzes every possibility . . . or the guy who looks over the situation and uses his gut instincts?
    I think some people are prodigies who instinctively are skilled at certain things. Like say Larry Bird both as a player and a GM. Other people probably benefit from study and analysis though.

    However, as other players-turned-GMs show, being instinctively good at one thing doesn't mean being good at all things! So I don't really buy guy who gets girl = better player.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute View Post
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    Thank you! This bears repeating.
    I don't think there's really a problem with using statistics to back up your position. It's doubtful that anybody ever fully picks a stance with no prior information and then goes out and finds a stat that backs him up. I would guess that even most people who base all of their opinions off of the "eye test" at least glance at a box score to confirm a hypothesis they picked up during the game. Furthermore, commentators are constantly throwing stats at you throughout the game. Everybody knows which players are scoring, which ones are close to a triple double, etc.

    Now, if you're talking strictly "out of context," then I would say there's a point. But it's usually fairly easy to tell when people are purposefully misusing a statistic or are unaware that they are misusing it. People don't normally do the former unless they're being faced with strong statistical evidence against their position.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by aamcguy View Post
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    I don't think there's really a problem with using statistics to back up your position. It's doubtful that anybody ever fully picks a stance with no prior information and then goes out and finds a stat that backs him up. I would guess that even most people who base all of their opinions off of the "eye test" at least glance at a box score to confirm a hypothesis they picked up during the game. Furthermore, commentators are constantly throwing stats at you throughout the game. Everybody knows which players are scoring, which ones are close to a triple double, etc.

    Now, if you're talking strictly "out of context," then I would say there's a point. But it's usually fairly easy to tell when people are purposefully misusing a statistic or are unaware that they are misusing it. People don't normally do the former unless they're being faced with strong statistical evidence against their position.
    I think the right way is to take an objective look at the data (whether stats or eyeball or whatever), spot a trend, and then look for other data to back it up. So if what you're saying is that you start with something you observe and then look for stats to back it up, then I agree.

    Especially with the long-winded forum arguments though, it feels like people start with a position they believe, and then hunt for stats to back it up. That's where misuse of stats is coming from IMO. It's a fine line maybe, but I think people should keep in mind that things they observe can be wrong, and it's not the stats' fault if they don't reflect what you think they should.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute View Post
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    I think some people are prodigies who instinctively are skilled at certain things. Like say Larry Bird both as a player and a GM. Other people probably benefit from study and analysis though.

    However, as other players-turned-GMs show, being instinctively good at one thing doesn't mean being good at all things! So I don't really buy guy who gets girl = better player.
    In the analogy, the guy who potentially gets the girl is the coach or GM. Larry Bird is the perfect example of the non-booking reading guy winning the "game."
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute View Post
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    Especially with the long-winded forum arguments though, it feels like people start with a position they believe, and then hunt for stats to back it up. That's where misuse of stats is coming from IMO. It's a fine line maybe, but I think people should keep in mind that things they observe can be wrong, and it's not the stats' fault if they don't reflect what you think they should.
    But if you believe Troy Murphy is not helpful for winning basketball games, and someone brings you lots of positive stats on him to prove otherwise . . . then it's the opposite problem of the stat brandisher misinterpreting the stats. So it goes both ways. But I think you've already acknowledged that in other posts.
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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute View Post
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    and it's not the stats' fault if they don't reflect what you think they should.
    One other note: stats don't talk. They don't speak. They don't even emerge from the world of blackness and abstraction until someone brings them out. There's always a person pushing them, and that person may or may not be misinterpreting and may or may not have an agenda.
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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    But if you believe Troy Murphy is not helpful for winning basketball games, and someone brings you lots of positive stats on him to prove otherwise . . . then it's the opposite problem of the stat brandisher misinterpreting the stats. So it goes both ways. But I think you've already acknowledged that in other posts.
    The Murphy thing is indicative of the disconnect between the advance metrics people and the "intuition" people. There are two things that advance metrics currently have a hard time with: defense and chemistry. Some of that has improved over the last 5 years with the inclusion of stats like points allowed while a certain player is on or off the floor, as well as 5-man unit stats to analyze which players play well together. However, advance metrics still has a long way to go in this regard.

    In the interim, an offensive player who steals defensive rebounds from his own teammates like Murphy, who plays no defense, is going to look better on some of these metrics than his actual on-court impact. I'm sure if we dug up Murphy's on/off stats from his days here, we'd see that he's a defensive seive, and that the team doesn't score as well as you would assume on offense, because lots of Murphy's rebounds were of the defensive variety.

    On the flip side, a guy like Omer Asik, and to a lesser extent, Roy Hibbert, is similarly difficult to quantify via advance metrics, because there is no stat for "good *** defense" or "number of guys who pulled up for a bad floater instead of attacking the rim". Again, we currently try to quantify those things with the on/off stats, but it's kinda like the way we say a planet in a solar system exists. We can't see the planet, but we can see a lot of data that suggests there's something large circling around the star that we can see.

    As the advance metrics go forward, especially with the SportsVue stuff, the stats are going to be able to do a much better job of quantifying this, because we will be able to see visual shot charts of all players when Roy Hibbert is on the floor vs. when he is off the floor, and the same for a guy like Troy Murphy. They're also tracking how much players move, and when, so you could presumably identify a player who breaks the offense and stops the flow because his teammates are moving less when he is on the floor.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eindar View Post
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    The Murphy thing is indicative of the disconnect between the advance metrics people and the "intuition" people. There are two things that advance metrics currently have a hard time with: defense and chemistry. Some of that has improved over the last 5 years with the inclusion of stats like points allowed while a certain player is on or off the floor, as well as 5-man unit stats to analyze which players play well together. However, advance metrics still has a long way to go in this regard.

    In the interim, an offensive player who steals defensive rebounds from his own teammates like Murphy, who plays no defense, is going to look better on some of these metrics than his actual on-court impact. I'm sure if we dug up Murphy's on/off stats from his days here, we'd see that he's a defensive seive, and that the team doesn't score as well as you would assume on offense, because lots of Murphy's rebounds were of the defensive variety.

    On the flip side, a guy like Omer Asik, and to a lesser extent, Roy Hibbert, is similarly difficult to quantify via advance metrics, because there is no stat for "good *** defense" or "number of guys who pulled up for a bad floater instead of attacking the rim". Again, we currently try to quantify those things with the on/off stats, but it's kinda like the way we say a planet in a solar system exists. We can't see the planet, but we can see a lot of data that suggests there's something large circling around the star that we can see.

    As the advance metrics go forward, especially with the SportsVue stuff, the stats are going to be able to do a much better job of quantifying this, because we will be able to see visual shot charts of all players when Roy Hibbert is on the floor vs. when he is off the floor, and the same for a guy like Troy Murphy. They're also tracking how much players move, and when, so you could presumably identify a player who breaks the offense and stops the flow because his teammates are moving less when he is on the floor.
    Good post.

    I agree that the stats can continue to improve and be more helpful. But my point is that there is always the human element that ultimately controls things. For example, we can make a soldier's gun better and better to shoot the enemy. But what if he uses it to shoot his comrade or his wife?
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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

  20. #112
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    The purpose of this thread was not to have a debate.

    Like a teacher who attempts to teach you a math equation so you better understand it, I was giving you examples so you could understand how it works. This is not a debate.

    I'm sorry to tell you this, but if you don't see the usefulness in this stat, you don't understand the game as well as everyone who does. Those who don't, are the weaker posters on this board who, simply put, aren't taken as seriously as everyone else.

    TS% explains why Reggie Miller, the most popular Pacers player of all time, was so incredibly successful even tho he shot only 46% from the field. He was unbelievably efficient at scoring the ball. He had no one else in the league during his career that could score as efficiently as he could. He was the best. But you don't know that unless you study the numbers which reveal this.

    You can argue until your blue in the face that stats don't matter, but the real reason anyone wants to argue that, is because it removes an ability a particular boarder has to make his own interpretations on what is happening. Stats tells us WHAT IS happening not what you WANT to happen.

    The point of this thread was to educate the many boarders who bring nothing to the board except unsubstantiated opinions in nearly every post they make. As we all know, while you're entitled to your own opinions, you're not entitled to your own facts. So when you bring weak opinions, with no basis in fact, no educated person can ever take it seriously.

    So while this solves little, the ignorant posters will continue to assume their knowledge is profound, the educated posters simply know that your opinion is of little value.

    Now them's the facts- It is unfortunate that cognitive dissonance will always keep a certain percentage of the board among the ignorant.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Before you get mad at me and label me an *******, just remember you are the one who's trying to argue basic math is useless.
    Last edited by mattie; 11-06-2013 at 08:41 AM.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by mattie View Post
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    Before you get mad at me and label me an *******,
    Too late.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by PacerDude View Post
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    Too late.
    No worries, that was simply for your own benefit.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    Let me connect the dots for you. The point is, great stats, even if they are fairly broad don't mean the player is any good.
    Why even bother at this point?
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.” ― Ricky Gervais.

    What if someone from a school of business or management school were to ask, How did you do this? How did you get the Pacers turned around? Is there a general approach you've taken that can be summarized?

    Larry Bird: Yeah, patience.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by mattie View Post
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    This is not a debate.
    Quote Originally Posted by mattie View Post
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    I'm sorry to tell you this, but if you don't see the usefulness in this stat, you don't understand the game as well as everyone who does. Those who don't, are the weaker posters on this board who, simply put, aren't taken as seriously as everyone else.

    TS% explains why Reggie Miller, the most popular Pacers player of all time, was so incredibly successful even tho he shot only 46% from the field. He was unbelievably efficient at scoring the ball. He had no one else in the league during his career that could score as efficiently as he could. He was the best. But you don't know that unless you study the numbers which reveal this.

    You can argue until your blue in the face that stats don't matter, but the real reason anyone wants to argue that, is because it removes an ability a particular boarder has to make his own interpretations on what is happening. Stats tells us WHAT IS happening not what you WANT to happen.

    The point of this thread was to educate the many boarders who bring nothing to the board except unsubstantiated opinions in nearly every post they make. As we all know, while you're entitled to your own opinions, you're not entitled to your own facts. So when you bring weak opinions, with no basis in fact, no educated person can ever take it seriously.

    So while this solves little, the ignorant posters will continue to assume their knowledge is profound, the educated posters simply know that your opinion is of little value.

    Now them's the facts- It is unfortunate that cognitive dissonance will always keep a certain percentage of the board among the ignorant.
    This is definitely not a debate. It's a condescending tyranny.

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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    One other note: stats don't talk. They don't speak. They don't even emerge from the world of blackness and abstraction until someone brings them out. There's always a person pushing them, and that person may or may not be misinterpreting and may or may not have an agenda.
    I've got to ask, if stats don't speak and the problem is the people pushing them, then why are you spending so much effort trying to dismiss the stat and not the people misusing the stat?
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.” ― Ricky Gervais.

    What if someone from a school of business or management school were to ask, How did you do this? How did you get the Pacers turned around? Is there a general approach you've taken that can be summarized?

    Larry Bird: Yeah, patience.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    I've got to ask, if stats don't speak and the problem is the people pushing them, then why are you spending so much effort trying to dismiss the stat and not the people misusing the stat?
    See the post right above yours.
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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    See the post right above yours.
    Not sure how that answers my question, unless you think trying to invalidate the stat is a good response to condescending tyranny. Although when a poster comes in and tries to argue that Troy Murphy isn't as good as people are saying, when it was never said, I think a little condescention is probably warranted.
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.” ― Ricky Gervais.

    What if someone from a school of business or management school were to ask, How did you do this? How did you get the Pacers turned around? Is there a general approach you've taken that can be summarized?

    Larry Bird: Yeah, patience.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    I mean. What do you expect? "I don't believe in math or facts."

    Cool. I don't take anything you say seriously.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    In the analogy, the guy who potentially gets the girl is the coach or GM. Larry Bird is the perfect example of the non-booking reading guy winning the "game."
    OK, really? You really think Larry Bird just uses his gut and never studied the game nor used statistics regarding a player?
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    In the analogy, the guy who potentially gets the girl is the coach or GM. Larry Bird is the perfect example of the non-booking reading guy winning the "game."
    Yes, because from the moment Larry Bird became GM he was immediately great. He didn't draft Shawn Williams or that White guy. When Bird first came here he came with the understanding that he would be Walsh's understudy until he was ready to take over. He knew being a good GM was more than just gut instinct. For 5 years he studied, went through some trial and error, and learned how to be a great GM. He wasn't great from the moment he was hired. It took years of training and studying and experience.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    OK, really? You really think Larry Bird just uses his gut and never studied the game nor used statistics regarding a player?
    I think Larry has probably had countless conversations with advanced stats guys who disagree with him and Larry says, "Whatever. I'm going with what I know," . . . and is usually right.
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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    I think Larry has probably had countless conversations with advanced stats guys who disagree with him and Larry says, "Whatever. I'm going with what I know," . . . and is usually right.
    Larry's #2 in Kevin Pritchard is a big advanced stat guy, so Larry must put quite the amount of confidence in them. I think Larry probably uses common sense and relies on both.
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.” ― Ricky Gervais.

    What if someone from a school of business or management school were to ask, How did you do this? How did you get the Pacers turned around? Is there a general approach you've taken that can be summarized?

    Larry Bird: Yeah, patience.

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