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Thread: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    Somehow a stat that combines how well a player shoots 2's, 3's, FT's, and how often they get to the line has no value. Amazing.
    TS% doesn't distinguish between a three point shot and two point shot.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    I understand it fine. That's why I am able to see it's value... and lack of value... in context.
    Why do you feel the need to apply your own context in a stat that can be taken in face value?
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    TS% doesn't distinguish between a three point shot and two point shot.
    Which is kind of the point, right? I mean, when you look at the final score, do you care how many points come from 2's and how many from 3's?

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    TS% doesn't distinguish between a three point shot and two point shot.
    It does, by using pure points multiplied by 100 instead of made field goals.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    When the explanation of it is flawed at the onset then 'push back' is what occurs....

    If any coach or manager needs this stat for his own team... something is dreadfully wrong. IMHO...
    Seriously? So which stats do you think are valid for coaches to use when evaluating their own team, and what coaches do you think are successful by "just watching the game" and not using stats?
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    I mean... is it that the TS% 'deniers' think we somehow OVER value this statistic? Is that the real rub? I'm baffled by this.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    yes
    And how exactly is it being over valued?

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    TS% doesn't distinguish between a three point shot and two point shot.
    That's a misconception. TS% does distinguish between a 3 point shot and a 2 point shot. Here is its formula:

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/d/a...1c1a1cc6bf.png

    Open the link and you will see that the numerator is points while the denominator is FGA. As we all know both 2 point and 3 point shots count as 1 FGA but 3 point shots score more points than 2 point shots. Therefore, the distinction is there.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by aamcguy View Post
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    TS% says nothing about how a team plays on defense. Additionally, O'Brien and Van Gundy's offenses were completely different. And if you think the Pacers hired O'Brien to win a championship, you are wrong. They hired O'Brien because he has proven himself capable of making bad teams mediocre while his team plays an entertaining up and down game of basketball. Taking lots of 3's doesn't make you a bad team or a good team, it's where and when you take them that counts.

    Also, TS% is not a justification for more 3 pointers. High efficiency big men also score well. Tyson Chandler is fifth in the history of the NBA with a TS% of .615. Number 6 is Reggie Miller. Charles Barkley, Dwight Howard, and Amare also score well.
    I agree with you on every single point.

    I suspect that nobody (including JOB himself) ever thought that he was hired to win much of anything, let alone a championship. I even agree with the fact that JOB and SVG ran offenses that were different, though ultimately both reached the outcome of being more 3-centric than most of the league based upon the ultimate belief that an increased number of 3's would likely lead to a more favorable outcome.

    I simply was illustrating from my own admittedly confirmationally biased viewpoint in the presence of what now is a generally held belief that poor Pacers performances and losses occurred with more frequency than they otherwise likely would have in the absence of the application of whatever strategy led to our "chuck 'n suck" results.

    As for SVG, despite having Dwight Howard, he chose not to focus on feeding Howard enough even during playoff time. It was so blatant that Howard often complained to the media about not getting enough touches and ultimately led him to basically quit playing to win for SVG at the end of SVG's Orlando gig, with the most glaring example of it probably being the final game of the playoffs that preceded his dismissal. Yes, Howard was a Prima donna, but that is another issue entirely.

    Obviously JOB's strategy could make bad teams mediocre, as long as they hit their shots. In the Pacers case, I believe that his strategy made the Pacers mediocre team bad.

    Regarding TS% being a justification for more 3 pointers, in my opinion it does the opposite, but I doubt that JOB and SVG would agree with either you or me. I don't have the time or inclination to look into and come up with a dataset and resulting metric which would support this assertion, it simply fits what I believe to be a valid conclusion based upon my confirmation bias (or my confirmed double as*es for those who disagree).

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Nuntius View Post
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    That's a misconception. TS% does distinguish between a 3 point shot and a 2 point shot. Here is its formula:

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/d/a...1c1a1cc6bf.png

    Open the link and you will see that the numerator is points while the denominator is FGA. As we all know both 2 point and 3 point shots count as 1 FGA but 3 point shots score more points than 2 point shots. Therefore, the distinction is there.
    Okay, I guess this is the part of TS% I struggle with understanding, then, because to me to account for 3's you should be including the extra 0.5 for each 3P.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    I'm finding this to be useful:

    http://www.burntorangenation.com/201...ion-estimation

    True Shooting Percentage

    By convention, the shooting efficiency lever I described above is expressed as "true shooting percentage." To be honest, I really dislike this term. I will explain why below. First, let's present the formula for true shooting percentage (TS%) that is NCAA appropriate

    TS% = 0.5 x points/(FGA + 0.475 x FTA)

    Essentially, true shooting percentage is the points scored per shooting opportunity divided by two. The number is divided for two so that it looks like a shooting percentage. Typically many teams and players will have TS% between about 0.5 and 0.6, so the scale is similar to what it common for more traditional field goal percentages. The problem with true shooting percentage is semantic -- it isn't actually a percentage. For example, TS% can be greater than 1. It can be as high as 1.5. The 0.5 prefactor seems kind of pointless, other than the effort to make this look like a field goal percentage.
    For my tastes, I would prefer not to call it a percentage, since it isn't a percentage. And adjusting them to seem MORE like FG% is counter-productive, I think. I'd forgotten about this.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    Why doesn't Brad Stevens just watch the games???
    No clue.

    Vogel tracks even smaller things, that the eye should be able to see that isn't a normal statistic, like deflections. They track number of deflections and then put it in a per minute basis. He then posts it in their video room on a pretty big white board, which the entire team can see from their seats.

    This summer we got to tour the facilities, and it was still up there from the playoffs. Why would he need stats to tell him which players are good at deflections, shouldn't he just know which ones seem to keep getting them and just use his eyes?
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.” ― Ricky Gervais.

    What if someone from a school of business or management school were to ask, How did you do this? How did you get the Pacers turned around? Is there a general approach you've taken that can be summarized?

    Larry Bird: Yeah, patience.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Okay, maybe I was just over-thinking it. TS (I'm going to stop including % because that now annoys me and confuses the issue of what the stat really is) is ultimately points per shot while also including FTAs. The artificial .44 or .475 in some cases that gets thrown in doesn't sit well with me, now that I recall its inclusion, too.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    Seriously? So which stats do you think are valid for coaches to use when evaluating their own team, and what coaches do you think are successful by "just watching the game" and not using stats?
    I mean, I understand you are saying you can't just use stats in a vacuum. That makes sense, there is no complete set of stats that defines every aspect of the game and complexity makes it unlikely there ever will be. But, by the same token, "just watch the game" in a vacuum is flawed because the human animal has biases toward certain things - a tendency to see patterns where none exist, more attraction to moving rather than static situations, exponential emphasis on linear patterns, etc.

    Bottom line is that statistics are a way for multiple people to watch different aspects of the game and describe what they saw in a well-defined way. Putting together statistics to form a picture is no different than putting together observations to form a picture - it's just that studies show over and over again that observations without a specific criterion for "yes" or "no" become flawed very quickly.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    No stat replaces what you can see with your own eyes but it can come in handy to help explain what you've seen over the course of 5, 10, 82 games.

    Sight and the human mind are wonderful tools but it's easy to forget what we've seen especially when we've seen so many plays over a period of time. Also, we have favorite players and biases. We might overlook mistakes or poor shooting of one player while when another misses a shot, it drives us to the brink of insanity. That's where the stats come in handy to see if what we think about a player's shooting ability aligns with the facts.
    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81
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    Larry is not coming back, he didn't have a meeting with Orlando for not reason, yeah he is coming back to the NBA but not to the Pacers, the notion that he is a taking a year off and then come back is absurd.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brad8888 View Post
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    It was so blatant that Howard often complained to the media about not getting enough touches and ultimately led him to basically quit playing to win for SVG at the end of SVG's Orlando gig, with the most glaring example of it probably being the final game of the playoffs that preceded his dismissal.
    Dwight Howard will always complain about not getting enough touches. Coaches are not going to give him the post touches that he thinks that he deserves because he simply isn't that efficient as a post player.

    Quote Originally Posted by Brad8888 View Post
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    Regarding TS% being a justification for more 3 pointers
    Here's a disconnect. TS% is not a justification for more 3 pointers. TS% is just a measurement of how efficient scorer a player is. That's all there is to it. You don't have to apply your own context in a stat that can be taken in face value.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    I'm finding this to be useful:

    http://www.burntorangenation.com/201...ion-estimation



    For my tastes, I would prefer not to call it a percentage, since it isn't a percentage. And adjusting them to seem MORE like FG% is counter-productive, I think. I'd forgotten about this.
    That's an interesting point. It's true that TS can exceed 100%. eFG% can exceed 100% as well. Lance's Catch and Shoot eFG% is 103.8% at the moment -> http://stats.nba.com/playerTrackingC...rowsPerPage=25
    Tonight, all flags must burn, in place of steeples.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    I'm finding this to be useful:

    http://www.burntorangenation.com/201...ion-estimation



    For my tastes, I would prefer not to call it a percentage, since it isn't a percentage. And adjusting them to seem MORE like FG% is counter-productive, I think. I'd forgotten about this.
    It IS a percentage. It's a weighted percentage.

    That 0.5 is NOT a useless number intended to make it look like a percent. It's actually there to give 3 pointers more credit for each one made and free throws less credit. It's what accounts for the 3 pointers being worth 1.5 times the amount as 2 pointers. The free throw weight is further adjusted in the denominator for and-1's.

    0.5 * points === ( 2*(2PT FGM) + 3*(3PT FGM) + 1*(FTM) ) / 2 === (2PT FGM) + 1.5(3PT FGM) + 0.5(FTM)

    It's weighted according to their point values: 2 pointers are considered to be worth one 2 pointer made, 3 pointers are considered to be worth 1.5 two pointers, and free throws are worth half of a two pointer.
    Last edited by aamcguy; 11-05-2013 at 04:20 PM.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    Okay, I guess this is the part of TS% I struggle with understanding, then, because to me to account for 3's you should be including the extra 0.5 for each 3P.
    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    I'm finding this to be useful:

    http://www.burntorangenation.com/201...ion-estimation



    For my tastes, I would prefer not to call it a percentage, since it isn't a percentage. And adjusting them to seem MORE like FG% is counter-productive, I think. I'd forgotten about this.
    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    Okay, maybe I was just over-thinking it. TS (I'm going to stop including % because that now annoys me and confuses the issue of what the stat really is) is ultimately points per shot while also including FTAs. The artificial .44 or .475 in some cases that gets thrown in doesn't sit well with me, now that I recall its inclusion, too.
    I think you are overthinking this. The difference between a shooting % and a points per shot rating is just a matter of conversion. Not taking into consideration 3pointers and FTs, 1.000 pps is equal to 50% FG%. They are the exact same statistic represented differently. 3-pointers and FTs can screw up with this perfect easy conversion though. Where eFG% only tries to adjust for 3-pointers, TS% also tries to adjust for FTA.

    Like all individual statistics they aren't there to define the best strategy, they are there to compare players who have similar roles. Comparing a PG to a C isn't a fair comparison for either player, and improper use of statistics. Comparing a sharp shooter to the number one option is not a fair comparison.

    How many 3's you take is meaningless. What isn't meaningless is how many 3's you make. If you are making them, then shooting 3s is a good strategy. If you are missing them shooting 3s is a bad strategy. The mark of a good team isn't how many 3's they take, it is about their ability to adjust how they play when their threes are not going in. Live by the 3 or die by the three is a terrible strategy. What isn't a terrible strategy is live by the 3 or adjust.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Okay, then that's like the third different equation I've seen for TS. So which is it?

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    Okay, then that's like the third different equation I've seen for TS. So which is it?
    They're all the same equation, with numbers moved around. The equations you've posted give you a number like .6341. The ones that are multiplied by 100 are just changing the decimal it to 63.41%, and you will notice they have a 2* in the denominator. The ones that are multiplied by 50 are just reducing 100/2 = 50.

    I didn't change anything, I just provided an alternate way of looking at the equation. They are absolutely equivalent. The whole equations is really just:

    (Weighted FGM) / (Weighted FGA), no matter what variables are used to get it.
    Last edited by aamcguy; 11-05-2013 at 04:42 PM.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Not a lot of math majors on PD! Lol

    The anti stat crew reminds me of the old baseball scout in Moneyball. "Yeah but his girlfriend is a dog, means he has no confidence." You guys must have hated that movie. Math!!! Run Away!!!!!!!!!

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    I guess I'm confused
    Hey, it's a simple stat taken at face value:

    0.5 * points === ( 2*(2PT FGM) + 3*(3PT FGM) + 1*(FTM) ) / 2 === (2PT FGM) + 1.5(3PT FGM) + 0.5(FTM)

    I have no idea why BBall would undervalue it.



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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by kent beckley View Post
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    Not a lot of math majors on PD! Lol

    The anti stat crew reminds me of the old baseball scout in Moneyball. "Yeah but his girlfriend is a dog, means he has no confidence." You guys must have hated that movie. Math!!! Run Away!!!!!!!!!
    You tell me which guy gets the girl (wins games). The one who reads 20 books on dating and analyzes every possibility . . . or the guy who looks over the situation and uses his gut instincts?
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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Jmo, but stats are used out of context all the time here. Most people use stats to 'prove' a point they already intuit true. In other words, they take a position and then use stats to back up their point. That seems backwards to me. Stats seem best used when the stat is used to identify guys that might make the team better because of their play. In this example, if a team had a guy with a good TS%, they should look at giving him more minutes. Or one of the ways the Pacers use stats to take away shots on defense that would generate a good TS%. Protect the front of the rim, protect the paint, protect the 3 pt line and don't foul.

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    I'm just wondering when was the stat ever used out of context, or which one has been used out of whack with reality.

    I agree it can be done, but it just reads like an pre-criticism of something that might or might not happen.

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