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Thread: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

  1. #426
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eindar View Post
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    Well, seems like this is a fine time to see if stats can tell us something. Essentially Troy would be asked with being the 3rd best player on his team in Miami, the same role as in Indiana. I also assume that he'd be as effective or more effective offensively, because he would be asked to shoot open shots. Having Murphy would also open up wider driving lanes, as he had much long ranger than Bosh has. However, you remove virtually all threat of a post-up, which is a weapon that Bosh has in his arsenal. This will compare Troy Murphy as a Pacer to Chris Bosh as a Heat. To the stats!:


    G MP PER TS% eFG% FTr 3PAr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
    Chris Bosh 212 7387 19.5 .574 .515 .382 .051 6.4 19.3 13.2 8.7 1.3 2.2 10.7 23.4 113 102 15.7 11.0 26.7 .174
    Troy Murphy 262 8117 16.9 .583 .545 .261 .380 6.0 26.8 16.3 10.9 1.3 1.1 10.7 18.0 116 105 14.4 10.9 25.3 .149

    What I see in those numbers is that they are roughly equal rebounders, due to Bosh being a slightly better offensive rebounder, but a poorer defensive rebounder. Troy is a more efficient shooter, which is no surprise, but Bosh has the higher PER, which I believe is a better indicator of overall offensive efficiency (PER penalizes for things like turnovers). Also, the only year that Murphy had a Usage rating as high as what Bosh averaged (his third year at Golden State), his shooting suffered, and was well below that Bosh has averaged as a member of the Heat. To me, that indicates that Murphy would not be able to handle a higher usage rate.

    So, on offense, it looks like Bosh enjoys a marginal advantage over Murphy. However, defense changes things. Bosh plays significant time at Center for the Heat. We've seen Murphy play minutes at Center, and I remember it as being not pretty. I don't know where to find the stats for opponent's stats when players are on/off the court, but that would be a good stat to have for this comparison.

    My gut is that if you replace Chris Bosh with 2009 Troy Murphy, West and Hibbert have even better offensive stats, and would have badly dominated the glass, although Murphy would also have a field day raining threes on those players. Bottom line, I think the Pacers win that series if you swap Bosh for Murphy and also add 6 million of replacement level salary, say an Afllalo or similar type of player.
    Troy Murphy was actually better at doing what Chris Bosh does when he's playing with the Miami starters. All he would have to do is set screens and hang around the perimeter to give the other guys space to operate. What he wouldn't be able to do is be the centerpiece while they're resting LeBron and Wade at the same time for a few minutes every night. In the regular season you actually get to see allstar Bosh for 5-10 minutes a night.

    I'm forever grateful that Chandler went to New York and Bosh went to Miami. Not only would Chandler have been cheaper, he would have been a much better fit in Miami.
    Last edited by aamcguy; 11-07-2013 at 08:22 PM.
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  3. #427
    The Last Great Pacer BlueNGold's Avatar
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    I can't believe people are comparing Bosh to Murphy...even remotely. It's not quite like comparing MJ to Gerald Green...but come on.

    Bosh is an Olympian and multi-year all-star. More rings and medals than Troy Murphy has playoff minutes. He was perhaps one of the very best players at least in one of the Olympics.

    Recall what happened to Murphy when he left Indy after JOb's failed attempt to coach the Pacers. Murphy quickly became a backup averaging 3PPG. Do you see that ever happening to Bosh? Bosh was a franchise player. Was Troy Murphy ever anything close to that?

    BTW, I cannot imagine what Bosh fans would think of this.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    I can't believe people are comparing Bosh to Murphy...even remotely. It's not quite like comparing MJ to Gerald Green...but come on.

    Bosh is an Olympian and multi-year all-star. More rings and medals than Troy Murphy has playoff minutes. He was perhaps one of the very best players at least in one of the Olympics.

    Recall what happened to Murphy when he left Indy after JOb's failed attempt to coach the Pacers. Murphy quickly became a backup averaging 3PPG. Do you see that ever happening to Bosh? Bosh was a franchise player. Was Troy Murphy ever anything close to that?

    BTW, I cannot imagine what Bosh fans would think of this.
    I actually think of myself a Bosh fan as far as believing he's a good player. I think he's received far too much criticism for his role on Miami's team. He plays it out of necessity because when he was playing his more traditional game Miami was having a difficult time winning. In Toronto he was a beast. But his role when LeBron and Wade are both out there is one that could be filled just as easily by probably 20 or 30 other big men in the league.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by aamcguy View Post
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    I actually think of myself a Bosh fan as far as believing he's a good player. I think he's received far too much criticism for his role on Miami's team. He plays it out of necessity because when he was playing his more traditional game Miami was having a difficult time winning. In Toronto he was a beast. But his role when LeBron and Wade are both out there is one that could be filled just as easily by probably 20 or 30 other big men in the league.
    I think it's more that LeBron and DWade are so good that they are going to carry anyone. But LeBron would have to defend the C and the PF if Murphy were in the game. Imagine Murphy attempting to guard either Hibbert or West. Imagine it.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    I THINK it would be 39.97%

    TS = PTS / (2 x (FGA + .44 x FTA))

    so 15 / (2 x (17 + .44x4))


    I calculated it quickly, so hopefully someone corrects me if I'm wrong.
    Yep, your calculation is right.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    Again I don't mind people using stats but what I do mind is people trying to beat me over the head with the stats book because I don't agree that DG is equal to Reggie because the stats say so, I'm sorry but there is not one stat that is going to make me believe that.
    The stats do not say that DG is equal to Reggie. No one is saying that DG is equal to Reggie. You're just overreacting.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    I'm finally getting my first look at the early SportsVU data, and can I just say that I adore that we now have a metric for keeping track of CONTESTED rebounds per game and a percentage of AVAILABLE rebounds per game a player grabs? AWESOME

    *edit after looking at more of what's now available* Good Lord, this is going to be great
    Yep, I made a thread about it earlier as well. They are going to be absolutely awesome.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    I also believe that probably one of the reasons why me and others don't believe in stats is because stats people in PD are not doing a good job in using them, when I see a post telling me that Reggie=DG because X stats say so and West=Karl Malone because Y stats say so then I'm going to believe that the stats they are using are garbage.
    Again, no one is saying that Reggie=DG and West=Karl Malone. It's all in your head.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    I can't believe people are comparing Bosh to Murphy...even remotely. It's not quite like comparing MJ to Gerald Green...but come on.

    Bosh is an Olympian and multi-year all-star. More rings and medals than Troy Murphy has playoff minutes. He was perhaps one of the very best players at least in one of the Olympics.

    Recall what happened to Murphy when he left Indy after JOb's failed attempt to coach the Pacers. Murphy quickly became a backup averaging 3PPG. Do you see that ever happening to Bosh? Bosh was a franchise player. Was Troy Murphy ever anything close to that?

    BTW, I cannot imagine what Bosh fans would think of this.
    The comparison between Bosh and Murphy has to do with their roles rather than their player value. There is no doubt that Bosh has been a franchise player in the past. I'm also quite sure that he has the skills to still be a franchise player. But Miami is not using him in that capacity. They only use him as a spot up shooter.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    I can't believe people are comparing Bosh to Murphy...even remotely. It's not quite like comparing MJ to Gerald Green...but come on.

    They're both stretch 4/5s, why can't they be compared? Not like it's comparing Troy to Shaq.
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.” ― Ricky Gervais.

    What if someone from a school of business or management school were to ask, How did you do this? How did you get the Pacers turned around? Is there a general approach you've taken that can be summarized?

    Larry Bird: Yeah, patience.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Nuntius View Post
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    Again, no one is saying that Reggie=DG and West=Karl Malone. It's all in your head.
    Quite some time ago Peck compared DG to Reggie and used statistics as part of the discussion. I think that's what he is stuck on here.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    Quite some time ago Peck compared DG to Reggie and used statistics as part of the discussion. I think that's what he is stuck on here.
    Ah, I see. I guess that I missed this discussion then.
    Tonight, all flags must burn, in place of steeples.
    Autonomy must return into the hands of the people.

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