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Thread: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    Yes. Agreed again.

    BTW, here is another reason stats are dangerous to interpret. Let's say Player A is playing for a bad team. You and I both know that good teams try harder against their rivals versus a bad team. Sometimes a coach may rest a player against a team they know they might beat. So, Player A has a pretty easy route to good stats.

    Now, Player B is much better but he's playing for a good team. Other teams are "up" for that competition and try much harder to win. Player B, although much better than Player A, has to contend with tighter defense...and therefore his shooting stats suffer.

    On paper, Player A looks better in all respects. I suppose his team's record is an indication. But even then, we are talking black magic trying to figure out who the better shooter is, simply based on statistics. IOW, good luck and it ain't happening.
    which is why no one is saying to base things only off statistics...

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    Yes. Agreed again.

    BTW, here is another reason stats are dangerous to interpret. Let's say Player A is playing for a bad team. You and I both know that good teams try harder against their rivals versus a bad team. Sometimes a coach may rest a player against a team they know they might beat. So, Player A has a pretty easy route to good stats.

    Now, Player B is much better but he's playing for a good team. Other teams are "up" for that competition and try much harder to win. Player B, although much better than Player A, has to contend with tighter defense...and therefore his shooting stats suffer.

    On paper, Player A looks better in all respects. I suppose his team's record is an indication. But even then, we are talking black magic trying to figure out who the better shooter is, simply based on statistics. IOW, good luck and it ain't happening.
    Your argument is good but one could counter that by saying that Player A has worse teammates and thus he takes harder shots because his teammates are unable to play offense while Player B has much better teammates and multiple threats on the floor that create better scoring opportunities for him. So, there are two sides of the coin.

    It's also true that there are empty stats. If a player puts up good stats but he doesn't make an impact in the W-L margin then he is posting empty stats. Kevin Love has been accused of posting empty stats a lot of times.

    Statistics are just a tool to help us get more info. They are not the be all and end all but they do help at keeping our opinions honest. We should use both statistics and our logic equally, imo.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by ilive4sports View Post
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    which is why no one is saying to base things only off statistics...
    But how much do you even weigh that stat vs "the other stuff"? There's just no way to determine that either because it's way too subjective. By the time you get something you can stand on with some basic analysis, you can literally watch the players over the course of a few weeks to get probably a truer measurement.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    But how much do you even weigh that stat vs "the other stuff"? There's just no way to determine that either because it's way too subjective. By the time you get something you can stand on with some basic analysis, you can literally watch the players over the course of a few weeks to get probably a truer measurement.
    How much? Who knows. But you should use them. TS% is a pretty damn solid statistic. You can watch the player and use the "advanced" statistics for a further understanding. Thats all.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    But how much do you even weigh that stat vs "the other stuff"? There's just no way to determine that either because it's way too subjective. By the time you get something you can stand on with some basic analysis, you can literally watch the players over the course of a few weeks to get probably a truer measurement.
    Not measurement. Without statistics you have no way of actually quantifying anything.

    You would get a very distorted image of reality if you're basing everything off of either statistics or "the real thing." You would remember the things you really liked, the things you really hated, and the things that happened at the beginning and ending of games if you removed all knowledge of recorded stats. You know which players are better than which, but you would only be able to speak qualitatively. Conversely, if you based 100% of your analysis on statistics, even a complete set, there's going to be a lot of holes.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    BTW, there is no end to the number of holes you can shoot into conclusions made by novices attempting to be statisticians.
    You do understand that the principles of TS% are taught in all introductory statistics and probability classes, right? TS% is no more complicated than FG% if you understand the concept of a weighted average.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by aamcguy View Post
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    You do understand that the principles of TS% are taught in all introductory statistics and probability classes, right? TS% is no more complicated than FG% if you understand the concept of a weighted average.
    I like how your signature quote by NGT pretty much sums up the argument in this thread.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    With all due respect (and I do mean that), my problem with stats is that they lack meaningful value when I see Troy Murphy's stats. It does mean something...but I don't think it tells you anything really useful.
    Just as an academic exercise, I decided to compare Troy's advance stats with other stretch 4s, and one defense-minded 4 that we know. This will compare Troy's 4 years in Indiana to their career:

    Season G MP PER TS% eFG% FTr 3PAr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48

    Troy Murphy 262 8117 16.9 .583 .545 .261 .380 6.0 26.8 16.3 10.9 1.3 1.1 10.7 18.0 116 105 14.4 10.9 25.3 .149
    Ryan Anderson 188 4299 19.8 .586 .549 .222 .583 11.5 16.1 13.9 5.9 1.3 1.4 8.1 21.6 121 104 12.6 5.8 18.4 .206
    Dirk Nowitzki 1113 40133 23.5 .581 .511 .380 .191 3.7 21.9 12.9 13.1 1.3 1.9 8.8 27.0 117 104 123.6 51.0 174.6 .209
    Dale Davis 671 19814 15.6 .552 .543 .416 .001 13.9 21.4 17.8 4.5 1.2 3.2 12.5 14.8 113 103 28.7 29.6 58.4 .141


    Here's where the rubber meets the road. On paper, you can see that Troy Murphy was a more efficient scorer in a Pacers jersey than Dirk was in a Mavs jersey. However, stats can't show that Murphy was always the 3rd offensive option, shooting wide-open 3s, whereas Dirk has been the 1st offensive option, dealing with double teams, etc. for his entire career. Also keep in mind that Dirk's stats are a much larger sample.

    I think, overall, one stat that does stick out is PER. PER seems to show that Dirk is a far superior offensive player than Anderson and Murphy. Otherwise, on paper, the stats are very similar for all three players, which is unsettling.

    As for Dale, you can clearly see how much better he is on the boards and as a shot blocker than these stretch 4s. We also know that his offensive game was limited, which is also shown. Looking at this broader sapmling, I think that ORtg and DRtg are junk stats, because I doubt anyone would argue that Dale Davis is more of a liability on defense than the other three players. Again, this is how we use our eyes to determine the usefulness of a stat.

    Again, I think this just shows that stats can be used, in a vacuum, to come to an incorrect conclusion. It also shows that there are some stats, such as PER, that appear to show a more accurate picture. Finally, I think this shows the usefulness of advance stats to allow us to compare a known quantity (Troy Murphy is a bad basketball player) to other, lesser known quantities (Ryan Anderson). Based on this, I think Ryan Anderson is not likely to be a big contributor on a contender, although his ORB% is significantly higher than Murphy, so in the right framework, I could be wrong.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eindar View Post
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    However, stats can't show that Murphy was always the 3rd offensive option, shooting wide-open 3s, whereas Dirk has been the 1st offensive option, dealing with double teams, etc. for his entire career. Also keep in mind that Dirk's stats are a much larger sample.
    Exactly. That's why we have to use our logic and common sense along with stats. It's pretty logical that 1st options are less efficient than 3rd/4th/5th options as they are they are often double-teamed or they go against the opposing team's best defender. A #1 option will almost never attempt a wide open shot against a good defense. A 3rd/4th/5th option will attempt those shots because the #1 option is drawing people on him.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eindar View Post
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    Looking at this broader sapmling, I think that ORtg and DRtg are junk stats, because I doubt anyone would argue that Dale Davis is more of a liability on defense than the other three players. Again, this is how we use our eyes to determine the usefulness of a stat.
    ORTg and DRTg are mostly team statistics. They do not account for the individual player all that accurately. Great defensive teams will see most of their players posting really good DRTg. I mean, DJ Augustin posted a 104 DRTg last year which is actually an average number.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eindar View Post
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    I think this shows the usefulness of advance stats to allow us to compare a known quantity (Troy Murphy is a bad basketball player) to other, lesser known quantities (Ryan Anderson).
    And here's where I have a little problem with this response. Just saying "Troy Murphy is a bad basketball player" is too general a statement for the application of statistics. You have to define what you mean by "bad", because - contrary to Pacerfan belief - Troy actually could do things like score the ball and rebound. We discount the scoring because the team didn't win, and we discount the rebounding because we maintain the story that all his rebounds were easy or stolen, but I seriously doubt those tales because they are the very definition of remembering what we want to remember (and blaming the player for how he was used by the coach).

    Only a little more refinement makes the statement testable - "Troy Murphy is a bad classic PF" - and suddenly there are all kinds of things you can use to test and compare - points in the paint, deflections, contested rebounds. In any case head-to-head defensive stats - which lag WAY behind the development of offensive stats, not least because they are hard to define objectively and to see in the course of a game - would show major flaws at that end of the floor.

    I will always maintain that Troy had skills that, in the right hands and at the right time of the game, would be valuable. The problem was that he should have been a perimeter SF rather than a PF, but he didn't have the body (speed) for it.

    I remember how people absolutely reviled Jeff Foster when he was forced into the position of being the Pacers' starting center. Once he was able to go back to coming off the bench and had the luxury to specialize in what he was best at, he amazingly "got better".
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    And here's where I have a little problem with this response. Just saying "Troy Murphy is a bad basketball player" is too general a statement for the application of statistics. You have to define what you mean by "bad", because - contrary to Pacerfan belief - Troy actually could do things like score the ball and rebound. We discount the scoring because the team didn't win, and we discount the rebounding because we maintain the story that all his rebounds were easy or stolen, but I seriously doubt those tales because they are the very definition of remembering what we want to remember (and blaming the player for how he was used by the coach).

    Only a little more refinement makes the statement testable - "Troy Murphy is a bad classic PF" - and suddenly there are all kinds of things you can use to test and compare - points in the paint, deflections, contested rebounds. In any case head-to-head defensive stats - which lag WAY behind the development of offensive stats, not least because they are hard to define objectively and to see in the course of a game - would show major flaws at that end of the floor.

    I will always maintain that Troy had skills that, in the right hands and at the right time of the game, would be valuable. The problem was that he should have been a perimeter SF rather than a PF, but he didn't have the body (speed) for it.

    I remember how people absolutely reviled Jeff Foster when he was forced into the position of being the Pacers' starting center. Once he was able to go back to coming off the bench and had the luxury to specialize in what he was best at, he amazingly "got better".
    The point is not that Troy was a bad player the point is that you can use stats to compare an OK player like him to hall of famers and way better players than him(see Dale and Dirk comparisons) and make him look like he was close to their level when everybody and their mom know that he was never that good.

    And yes I agree with you that Murphy in his prime could have been a good piece on a good team but again that is not what Eindar is saying.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    The point is not that Troy was a bad player the point is that you can use stats to compare an OK player like him to hall of famers and way better players than him(see Dale and Dirk comparisons) and make him look like he was close to their level when everybody and their mom know that he was never that good.

    And yes I agree with you that Murphy in his prime could have been a good piece on a good team but again that is not what Eindar is saying.
    Sure, you can always select the stats that make your case. You can do that with the "eye test" too and only see and report what you want to see. At least with stats someone can come up with another stat that contradicts the selectivity. With the eye test another observation is just another observation and no one can really state for sure if it was an isolated incident or the actual trend.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    I will always maintain that Troy had skills that, in the right hands and at the right time of the game, would be valuable. The problem was that he should have been a perimeter SF rather than a PF, but he didn't have the body (speed) for it.
    I agree that he could have been a decent player in a more limited role. But the main problem was that him and Dunleavy were basically paid a combined $20 million a season. They simply were not good enough to justify that money, and their salaries completely tied our hands for a few years. If you're paying two guys a combined $20 million, then they better at least get you to the playoffs once. So even though Murphy was playing as hard as he could, his salary was a huge reason that the team couldn't improve. I'm still amazed that Bird found a way to trade him before 10-11.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    I agree that he could have been a decent player in a more limited role. But the main problem was that him and Dunleavy were basically paid a combined $20 million a season. They simply were not good enough to justify that money, and their salaries completely tied our hands for a few years. If you're paying two guys a combined $20 million, then they better at least get you to the playoffs once. So even though Murphy was playing as hard as he could, his salary was a huge reason that the team couldn't improve. I'm still amazed that Bird found a way to trade him before 10-11.
    He found a team that over-valued TS or looked at it in a vacuum...
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    He found a team that over-valued TS or looked at it in a vacuum...
    Or just needed an expiring.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    What would Lance's TS% for last nite's game be ?? 5-17, 3-6 on 3s, 2-4 FTs.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    Nobody has denied stats have relevance.

    Everyone accepts that TS tries to measure offensive efficiency as it relates to individual scoring.

    So exactly what are some of you arguing about or wanting others of us to accept so as not to be "ignorant"?

    I think I can speak for most who've ended up on the other side of this debate that in a nutshell all we are saying is that TS alone doesn't tell us much about a player or the team game of basketball.

    Everytime a bigger picture scenario has been painted the fallback argument is "It's just a stat to tell us efficiency. Not how good a player is or who is better".
    Well, great... IOW it's a tiny piece of a large puzzle that has many larger pieces that also must be considered. So why argue to the death for TS as if next to the scoreboard it's the most important stat. Because that is how I read many of you.
    I noticed nobody took a crack at answering this question. It's all fairly boiled down in the above post so surely there must be an answer to the question in a neat, direct form that explains your position and reasoning for such a defense. Particularly those of you who resorted to sniping and name calling...
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    Sure, you can always select the stats that make your case. You can do that with the "eye test" too and only see and report what you want to see. At least with stats someone can come up with another stat that contradicts the selectivity. With the eye test another observation is just another observation and no one can really state for sure if it was an isolated incident or the actual trend.
    Well yeah but the point of those like me that don't think stats are sacred is that stats are not as sacred as some make them out to be.

    Stats are made by people and people can make mistakes even when recording stats, sure you can go to a machine that poops stats and get whatever you want to get out of them but the fact is that a lot of that poop is filled with errors, I mean I remember hearing that CP3's assists were always inflated in New Orleans by the stats geeks over there how can you tell me that that is not happening all over the NBA?

    Again I don't mind people using stats but what I do mind is people trying to beat me over the head with the stats book because I don't agree that DG is equal to Reggie because the stats say so, I'm sorry but there is not one stat that is going to make me believe that.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by PacerDude View Post
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    What would Lance's TS% for last nite's game be ?? 5-17, 3-6 on 3s, 2-4 FTs.
    I THINK it would be 39.97%

    TS = PTS / (2 x (FGA + .44 x FTA))

    so 15 / (2 x (17 + .44x4))


    I calculated it quickly, so hopefully someone corrects me if I'm wrong.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    I noticed nobody took a crack at answering this question.
    I'm still waiting for someone to accept my challenge of finding posts where people were misusing TS% and/or overvaluing it, if we're keeping track of what questions haven't been answered.
    ďJust because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.Ē ― Ricky Gervais.

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  34. #396

    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    I THINK it would be 39.97%
    Not good I'll guess.

    That being said - who else would anyone have wanted in there in the 4th ??

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    We discount the scoring because the team didn't win, and we discount the rebounding because we maintain the story that all his rebounds were easy or stolen, but I seriously doubt those tales because they are the very definition of remembering what we want to remember (and blaming the player for how he was used by the coach).
    Exactly.

    Are people saying that advanced stats show that Troy Murphy was a good basketball player? Because he has a high TS%?

    What a high TS% shows is that Troy Murphy was an efficient shooter. Which he was.

    Say what you want about his defense or the quality of his rebounding, but he was a good shooter.

    The SportsVU cameras track how many people are around you (both teammates and opponents) when a) the ball is shot, b) when the ball hits the rim, and c) when the rebound is gathered. (And everything in between). It tracks how many people are around you and how far away they are in .5 foot increments.



    Here's a challenge, eyes-only guys. Rank the top five Indiana Pacers players in contested rebounds per game. There have only been 5 games, so this should be a cakewalk. Bonus points for telling me how many each player has per game.

    Then, rank the top five guys in the NBA in contested rebounds per game. Again, bonus points for guess-timating the actual number.

    And... go!

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    I'm still waiting for someone to accept my challenge of finding posts where people were misusing TS% and/or overvaluing it, if we're keeping track of what questions haven't been answered.
    You'll be waiting a long time because this thread never was about that. This thread was about what TS is and I challenged the importance of TS (especially as it relates to your own team and players (and as a caveat I'm talking core players). I challenged it's importance because I believe anyone paying attention can use FGA, FG%, FTA FTM, 3Pers and actual viewing of the games and not need TS. Just viewing the games you know which players play smart, who has a knack for getting to the line, who can create their own shot, who plays smart and within the offense, who breaks plays, who your 3 point shooters are, who is Michael Jordan in garbage time, who is Meek Mouse in crunch time, etc etc etc....

    OTOH, for players you don't watch often TS can give you some insight into their PPG and things you need to look for as you're scouting them or looking at them as a piece to a trade.

    So I see my question as valid and on point and seeking clarity... Your question is moving the goal posts over to the baseball diamond and wouldn't help this thread find clarity no matter what answer you got.
    Nuntius was right. I was wrong. Frank Vogel has retained his job.

    ------

    "A player who makes a team great is more valuable than a great player. Losing yourself in the group, for the good of the group, thatís teamwork."

    -John Wooden

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  39. #399
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    I'm finally getting my first look at the early SportsVU data, and can I just say that I adore that we now have a metric for keeping track of CONTESTED rebounds per game and a percentage of AVAILABLE rebounds per game a player grabs? AWESOME

    *edit after looking at more of what's now available* Good Lord, this is going to be great

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  41. #400
    Jimmy did what Jimmy did Bball's Avatar
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by FlavaDave View Post
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    Exactly.

    Are people saying that advanced stats show that Troy Murphy was a good basketball player? Because he has a high TS%?

    What a high TS% shows is that Troy Murphy was an efficient shooter. Which he was.

    Say what you want about his defense or the quality of his rebounding, but he was a good shooter.

    The SportsVU cameras track how many people are around you (both teammates and opponents) when a) the ball is shot, b) when the ball hits the rim, and c) when the rebound is gathered. (And everything in between). It tracks how many people are around you and how far away they are in .5 foot increments.



    Here's a challenge, eyes-only guys. Rank the top five Indiana Pacers players in contested rebounds per game. There have only been 5 games, so this should be a cakewalk. Bonus points for telling me how many each player has per game.

    Then, rank the top five guys in the NBA in contested rebounds per game. Again, bonus points for guess-timating the actual number.

    And... go!
    There are no 'eyes only' guys in this thread so you won't get an answer.
    Nuntius was right. I was wrong. Frank Vogel has retained his job.

    ------

    "A player who makes a team great is more valuable than a great player. Losing yourself in the group, for the good of the group, thatís teamwork."

    -John Wooden

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