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Thread: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eleazar View Post
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    In other words minds play tricks with what we observe based on our biases and other assumptions, which is a scientific fact, and one way to combat these tricks is to use objective statistics.
    But weren't those specific types of statistics chosen, created, shaped, and designed my human minds with "biases and assumptions." ?
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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    George Hill Apologist mattie's Avatar
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Some of the things you guys are saying is just insane, and then you wonder why I get irritated. Don't make stupid arguments. I'll chill out, I promise.
    Find me on the internets @mattiecolin

    Read it and weep:

    When George Hill is above 15% usage we won 73.5% of games. Below 15% usage we won 61.9%

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    You just admitted that some of those questions can't be measured.
    Then why are you quibbling with me?
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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    I agree with anyone who thinks TS is 'a' stat and not 'the' stat.

    And if you think this particular stat is tracking things that can be followed intuitively with the inclusion of more standard tools and your own educated observations upon close review of your own core players then I agree with you even more.

    And if you think this stat is much more valuable for scouting than it is your own team, particularly your core players, then I think we should have a party.
    I agree that TS is "a" stat in general but I also believe that when it comes to scoring efficiency it's one of the most important stats. Of course, scoring efficiency is only a small part of basketball

    And it can certainly track things that are followed intuitively. I don't need to look at the stat to know that Tyson Chandler and Kyle Korver are efficient at scoring the basketball. I can tell that by watching the games. However, I also don't need to look at the stat to know that both of those players are quite limited in what they can do offensively and tend to only take shots that they can make. And that's why I marvel at Stephen Curry when I watch him play.

    As for the if this stat is more valuable for scouting than it is for our own team. I would agree in general. It is certainly valuable for scouting although I'd argue that studying shot charts and preferences are equally or more valuable. But it does has value for my own team as well when someone is attacking a player's shooting efficiency unfairly.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by CJ Jones View Post
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    Danny's a chuck IMO more for his lack of passing than the number of shots he puts up. This year, with all the weapons we have around him, his bad shot attempts should go down and assist % should go up. If this happens, regardless of how well he shoots it, I'll no longer label Danny a chuck.
    It's a well-known fact that he is just not very talanted as a passer. He still moves the ball under Vogel but I wouldn't confuse his low assist numbers with chucking.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    You created your own definition, and then are complaining because I'm pointing out that it's not the accepted definition.
    Accepted by who? ESPN? Albert Einstein? The "National Association of Advanced Virgin Math Book reading Enthusiasts of Obscure and Advanced Basketball Statistics" ?
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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    This is the "I don't want to be wrong" portion of the thread. Let's try to word as best we can so we both agree, so I don't have to admit I was wrong.

    As long as none of you on the "i hate stats" side of the argument repeats your absurd arguments in the future, I have no problem dropping it. In fact, I'll even say I was all wrong and you were all right.

    Just learn something from this. That was the whole point anyways. Now you can properly measure a player's scoring efficiency in the future. Yay. =)
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    Then why are you quibbling with me?
    Because I didn't realize you'd be this lost on what efficiency means, and represents.
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.” ― Ricky Gervais.

    What if someone from a school of business or management school were to ask, How did you do this? How did you get the Pacers turned around? Is there a general approach you've taken that can be summarized?

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    But weren't those specific types of statistics chosen, created, shaped, and designed my human minds with "biases and assumptions." ?
    Yes, but they are created not to be uncertain in and of themselves.

    How people USE them can be biased in how they are chosen and combined - thus the phrase "lies, damn lies, and statistics", but there really isn't much argument about the numbers themselves. That's the whole point - people count what they remember, more often the negative things than the positive things, and see patterns in randomness. That's how we are built, and the way to combat it is to create something objective, or at least less subjective (for instance, assists is a stat that is extremely variable based on who is recording it. I doubt anyone would use this to disregard the value of assists to describing a player, but it does mean that comparing players on the basis of a tiny difference in assist averages may not be accurate).

    As unreliable as a statistic might be, just the very fact of trying to actually record observations and quantify them makes the observation more reliable. In reality, it probably doesn't matter if you write down what you saw ("PG made a 3 point shot from the right corner. Lance looked upset") or quantified it (PG 1-1 3pt range), though the second makes no bones about what it is (a count of shots) while the first makes an assumption (maybe Lance was gassy and trying to hold in a fart), but the important part is you can go back to it and check to see if what you thought you saw over and over again was in fact true over and over again.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    But weren't those specific types of statistics chosen, created, shaped, and designed my human minds with "biases and assumptions." ?
    Most stats are based on the mathematics of basketball. Others weight those mathematics based on biases, observations, or other statistics. PER and Win Share are two examples of advance statistics that fall prey to biases and assumptions, which is why I never rely on a single one of those. TS%, eFG%, PPS, FG%, and most statistics are not.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by mattie View Post
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    Assists mean you're hitting open players, and creating scoring opportunities for other players. It doesn't necessarily mean you're selfish if you don't have assists.
    NBA.com's new Player Tracking (which I will keep saying that it's absolutely awesome) has a section that is completely focused in passing. Here it is -> http://stats.nba.com/playerTrackingP...rowsPerPage=25

    It keeps track of Passes per Game, Secondary Assists per Game (the fabled hockey assist), Assist Opportunities per Game (also known as Potential Assists which keeps track of a pass that resulted in a FGA and would be considered assists if the shot was made), FT Assists per Game (passes that lead to a foul and the FT shooter hits at least 1 of his FTs) and Points Created by Assists per Game (which tracks the amount of points scored after an assist).

    I'm telling you, the new SportVU cameras are going to revolutionize the statistical field although I'm sure that the teams themselves had some of that data for a while.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    Accepted by who? ESPN? Albert Einstein? The "National Association of Advanced Virgin Math Book reading Enthusiasts of Obscure and Advanced Basketball Statistics" ?

    Close. Association for Professional Basketball Research Metrics, that's who.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/True_shooting_percentage

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    Accepted by who? ESPN? Albert Einstein? The "National Association of Advanced Virgin Math Book reading Enthusiasts of Obscure and Advanced Basketball Statistics" ?
    Because part of the purpose of this is to communicate, there has to be an accepted definition so everyone knows what they are talking about. Usually the best definition is the one that encompasses the smallest number of factors - if each factor is done separately, you can still reach your conclusion by combining things, while someone else can use a different combination for a different purpose.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    You created your own definition, and then are complaining because I'm pointing out that it's not the accepted definition. Efficiency ratings are numbers, what you're asking to go into a players shooting efficiency rating cannot be broken down into numbers. You just admitted that some of those questions can't be measured.
    Here's what you wrote:
    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    I agree tension between teammates is an important factor to look at, but it has absolutely nothing to do with shooting efficiency.
    You didn't say "ratings" and I wasn't talking about ratings. I was talking about the concept of efficiency.
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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    Because part of the purpose of this is to communicate, there has to be an accepted definition so everyone knows what they are talking about. Usually the best definition is the one that encompasses the smallest number of factors - if each factor is done separately, you can still reach your conclusion by combining things, while someone else can use a different combination for a different purpose.
    Apparently the definition is not very well accepted by some. If there "HAS" to be an accepted definition, and there isn't one, then maybe that's why this particular stat is failing in its "purpose" to "communicate."
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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    Accepted by who? ESPN? Albert Einstein? The "National Association of Advanced Virgin Math Book reading Enthusiasts of Obscure and Advanced Basketball Statistics" ?
    I'm laughing my a** off with this one

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    Close. Association for Professional Basketball Research Metrics, that's who.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/True_shooting_percentage

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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    288 additional posts arguing math. TS% logs how many times the ball does or doesn't go in the hoop. That's it. It's math. Stop arguing. It makes me wonder if the guys arguing against it ever made it past 5th grade (algebra) math. Did you flunk out?
    Find me on the internets @mattiecolin

    Read it and weep:

    When George Hill is above 15% usage we won 73.5% of games. Below 15% usage we won 61.9%

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    Well, if I am going to think about the concept of efficiency, I might consider the following:

    - How quickly did he shoot and not allow better opportunities to emerge?
    - How many times did he shoot when someone else was more open?
    - How many times did he make the shot when it really mattered, like end of games?
    - How many times did he make the shot when momentum was swinging in the other team's favor?
    - How many times did he take a shot when another teammate was hot and should have been fed the ball?
    - How many times did he tell his teammates to pass him the ball, thus creating tensions on the team?

    There's a start. Some of those are measurable and some aren't. When I am thinking about an "efficient" shooter and scorer, there are many, many things that could be part of the "equation." And I think the human mind can identify and apply a zillion more factors, even unconsciously, then a stat machine.
    I think that these questions answer if a player is "better" than another and not if he is "more efficient". Just my opinion, of course.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eleazar View Post
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    TS%, eFG%, PPS, FG%, and most statistics are not.
    But doesn't the very fact that certain factors must be chosen in the definition of the stat mean that potential bias and assumption is in play?
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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by mattie View Post
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    288 additional posts arguing math. TS% logs how many times the ball does or doesn't go in the hoop. That's it. It's math. Stop arguing. It makes me wonder if the guys arguing against it ever made it past 5th grade (algebra) math. Did you flunk out?
    Probably didn't pass addition and subtraction, because the equation didn't take into account how the subtracted numbers felt about being left out.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by mattie View Post
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    288 additional posts arguing math. TS% logs how many times the ball does or doesn't go in the hoop. That's it. It's math. Stop arguing. It makes me wonder if the guys arguing against it ever made it past 5th grade (algebra) math. Did you flunk out?
    i would wager that most people that graduate from high school and even college are convinced that all of the math classes they took cannot be applied to the real world so scoff at anything that relates the real world to numbers.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    But doesn't the very fact that certain factors must be chosen in the definition of the stat mean that potential bias and assumption is in play?
    The "factors" chosen in TS% are chosen because of the number of points various shots are worth. The factor concerning free throws attempted was chosen because it matched the observed frequency of free throw shots taken by players in NBA games. Nothing is arbitrarily chosen.
    “The good thing about science is that it's true whether or not you believe in it.”
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    Yes, but they are created not to be uncertain in and of themselves.

    How people USE them can be biased in how they are chosen and combined - thus the phrase "lies, damn lies, and statistics", but there really isn't much argument about the numbers themselves. That's the whole point - people count what they remember, more often the negative things than the positive things, and see patterns in randomness. That's how we are built, and the way to combat it is to create something objective, or at least less subjective (for instance, assists is a stat that is extremely variable based on who is recording it. I doubt anyone would use this to disregard the value of assists to describing a player, but it does mean that comparing players on the basis of a tiny difference in assist averages may not be accurate).

    As unreliable as a statistic might be, just the very fact of trying to actually record observations and quantify them makes the observation more reliable. In reality, it probably doesn't matter if you write down what you saw ("PG made a 3 point shot from the right corner. Lance looked upset") or quantified it (PG 1-1 3pt range), though the second makes no bones about what it is (a count of shots) while the first makes an assumption (maybe Lance was gassy and trying to hold in a fart), but the important part is you can go back to it and check to see if what you thought you saw over and over again was in fact true over and over again.
    In the midst of all the nuttiness, this is an interesting post. Although I'm not sure what the point was. (And I'm being serious.) I liked the bold part.
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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by aamcguy View Post
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    What do you have against this formula? Is it because it's a sequence of numbers?

    If George Hill makes 2 3 pointers, 2 layups, and 2 free throws tonight, I'm confident both of you can figure out he scored 12 points in 5 seconds or less.

    Why? Because 2*3 + 2*2 + 2*1 = 12. The points a player or team scores can always be written as a function of the two-point field goals, three-point field goals, and free throws they make. All the forumula (the full formula) does is standardize two-point field goals, three-point field goals, and free throws so they are in terms of two-point field goals.

    This is done under the assumption that if a player scores a certain amount of points, and let's say 20 points, it's worth the same no matter what type of shots they used to get there. This "standardized FGM" statistic(the bit on the right of the last '=' sign in what I've quoted from you) is then divided by the FGA which is modified so as not to give high yield free throw shooters an advantage in the statistic.
    I have nothing against the formula. If you need a formula to lump in a player's total offensive contributions (via made baskets) and spit out a number that you can compare against others, then I'm sure it's a fine formula.
    Nuntius was right. I was wrong. Frank Vogel has retained his job.

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