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Thread: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

  1. #251
    George Hill Apologist mattie's Avatar
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by CJ Jones View Post
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    Danny's a chuck IMO more for his lack of passing than the number of shots he puts up. This year, with all the weapons we have around him, his bad shot attempts should go down and assist % should go up. If this happens, regardless of how well he shoots it, I'll no longer label Danny a chuck.
    This is the interesting thing about CJ, while he'll tag along with all those guys who don't believe in stats merely because they disagree with me, but the kid LOVES to use stats himself. Only he uses them all incorrectly.

    Danny doesn't create scoring attempts for other players, also known as assists, so therefor he's a selfish chucker???

    So according to CJ, if you don't have a high assist number, you don't like to pass the ball ever.

    Assists mean you're hitting open players, and creating scoring opportunities for other players. It doesn't necessarily mean you're selfish if you don't have assists.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    Bad shots **** me off too. But when I look at the other options Danny had to play with during that 09 season, him shooting it was far better than others.

    I agree Danny went haywire, but he was asked to do so, and in reality it wasn't that much more than what he should have been doing. As the best scorer/player on that team, he should have been shooting the ball 17 times a game. I'm not going to worry about the difference between 17 and 19, spread out over 36mins of game time.

    I blame JOb much much more than I do Danny. And hasn't Danny even made comments in the past about how he wasn't all that comfortable with their style of play?
    I'm still wondering if knee issues changed Danny's game more than anything. Or maybe it was a hangover from O'Brien.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by mattie View Post
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    This is the interesting thing about CJ, while he'll tag along with all those guys who don't believe in stats merely because they disagree with me, but the kid LOVES to use stats himself. Only he uses them all incorrectly.

    Danny doesn't create scoring attempts for other players, also known as assists, so therefor he's a selfish chucker???

    So according to CJ, if you don't have a high assist number, you don't like to pass the ball ever.

    Assists mean you're hitting open players, and creating scoring opportunities for other players. It doesn't necessarily mean you're selfish if you don't have assists.
    mattie,
    Settle down. Some people disagree with you. You'll get that in life.

    I'm not sure one person has stated they don't believe in stats or don't think stats have place in the game. So getting worked over an argument that has only occurred in your own mind isn't worth the effort it takes to make it.
    Nuntius was right. I was wrong. Frank Vogel has retained his job.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    mattie,
    Settle down. Some people disagree with you. You'll get that in life.

    I'm not sure one person has stated they don't believe in stats or don't think stats have place in the game. So getting worked over an argument that has only occurred in your own mind isn't worth the effort it takes to make it.
    Since86 ACTUALLY agrees with you, though he doesn't realize it, and Mattie's problem with you is an aberration in his own mind. I'm not disagreeing with you, I'm just saying I am picking up some fantastic debating tactics from you today. Thank you sir.
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  8. #255
    George Hill Apologist mattie's Avatar
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    I'm settled.
    Find me on the internets @mattiecolin

    Read it and weep:

    When George Hill is above 15% usage we won 73.5% of games. Below 15% usage we won 61.9%

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    what part of individual scoring efficiency (which is what TS% is
    That's what the creators of it say it is. But maybe its more like "scoring pot pouri items" or "extraneous shooting tidbits." They are subjectively placing a word on the following concept:

    0.5 * points === ( 2*(2PT FGM) + 3*(3PT FGM) + 1*(FTM) ) / 2 === (2PT FGM) + 1.5(3PT FGM) + 0.5(FTM)
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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    I'm still wondering if knee issues changed Danny's game more than anything. Or maybe it was a hangover from O'Brien.
    I hate to use stats but...... Danny's shot attempts per game were on the decline way before his knee issues popped up.
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.” ― Ricky Gervais.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    0.5 * points === ( 2*(2PT FGM) + 3*(3PT FGM) + 1*(FTM) ) / 2 === (2PT FGM) + 1.5(3PT FGM) + 0.5(FTM)

    Basketball, is really a simple and beautiful game.

    No, really it is.

    Believe me.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    That's what the creators of it say it is. But maybe its more like "scoring pot pouri items" or "extraneous shooting tidbits." They are subjectively placing a word on the following concept:

    0.5 * points === ( 2*(2PT FGM) + 3*(3PT FGM) + 1*(FTM) ) / 2 === (2PT FGM) + 1.5(3PT FGM) + 0.5(FTM)
    Seriously, then, say why it ISN'T representative of efficiency. What is your own definition of efficiency and why doesn't this get it? Is it too much, or too little? Do you think that the guy who shoots 40% all from 2 is exactly as efficient as the guy who shoots 40% all from 3? Why or why not? Is there an adjustment needed to compare them? Or, if you don't want to use numbers, tell us what you look for on the floor to determine efficiency - a perfect shooting motion even if the guy is in a slump? Just saying "I know it when I see it" is a cop-out, because it doesn't help anyone else see what you see.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    what do you think TS% is missing?
    Well, if I am going to think about the concept of efficiency, I might consider the following:

    - How quickly did he shoot and not allow better opportunities to emerge?
    - How many times did he shoot when someone else was more open?
    - How many times did he make the shot when it really mattered, like end of games?
    - How many times did he make the shot when momentum was swinging in the other team's favor?
    - How many times did he take a shot when another teammate was hot and should have been fed the ball?
    - How many times did he tell his teammates to pass him the ball, thus creating tensions on the team?

    There's a start. Some of those are measurable and some aren't. When I am thinking about an "efficient" shooter and scorer, there are many, many things that could be part of the "equation." And I think the human mind can identify and apply a zillion more factors, even unconsciously, then a stat machine.
    Last edited by McKeyFan; 11-06-2013 at 04:33 PM.
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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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  18. #261
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eindar View Post
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    I think Danny vs. Lance has a lot of moving parts, such that even if you try to simply argue which player is better in a vacuum, there's a whole other argument to be made as to how each player fits with George, and how each player fits with the bench. I think there's simply too many variables for either side to definitively say that one should start. Trust the coach to know his business, as he is the only one who will see a large enough sample to make the decision.

    As for a "chucker", I always viewed it as someone who shoots at lot at a relatively low percentage. And, just because you are a chucker, doesn't necessarily mean you are an overall bad player, but it is certainly a hole in your game. Josh Smith and Monta Ellis are current chuckers, and I think Antoine Walker and Allen Iverson are prime examples of historic chuckers. I don't think Granger should be mentioned in the same breath with those players. I think that the JOB years have tainted the image of Danny, because he was being asked to take shots early in the shot clock if he was given an open shot from an area where he felt comfortable taking the shot. As we found, there are problems with that philosophy, although maybe that approach works if you have a more talented team, particularly on the defensive end.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    Just saying "I know it when I see it" is a cop-out, because it doesn't help anyone else see what you see.
    Not necessarily. It just may be that some things in life are not all that explainable, but are true and identifiable. Like art. And the color red.
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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    Well, if I am going to think about the concept of efficiency, I might consider the following:

    - How quickly did he shoot and not allow better opportunities to emerge?
    - How many times did he shoot when someone else was more open?
    - How many times did he make the shot when it really mattered, like end of games?
    - How many times did he make the shot when momentum was swinging in the other team's favor?
    - How many times did he take a shot when another teammate was hot and should have been fed the ball?
    - How many times did he tell his teammates to pass him the ball, thus creating tensions on the team?

    There's a start. Some of those are measurable and some aren't. When I am thinking about an "efficient" shooter and scorer, there are many, many things that could be part of the "equation." And I think the human mind can identify and apply a zillion more factors, even unconsciously, then a stat machine.

    If a player take a shot, and hits that shot, he's not 100% efficient, because you need to know whether or not his shot created tension with his teammate? We've officially jumped the shark.
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.” ― Ricky Gervais.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    If a player take a shot, and hits that shot, he's not 100% efficienct, because you need to know whether or not his shot created tension with his teammate? We've officially jumped the shark.
    Yes, in fact. And also when he misses it. Laugh all you want, but that concept will not be as funny as you might think when Granger returns.
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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    Well, if I am going to think about the concept of efficiency, I might consider the following:

    - How quickly did he shoot and not allow better opportunities to emerge?
    - How many times did he shoot when someone else was more open?
    - How many times did he make the shot when it really mattered, like end of games?
    - How many times did he make the shot when momentum was swinging in the other team's favor?
    - How many times did he take a shot when another team was hot and should have been fed the ball?
    - How many times did he tell his teammates to pass him the ball, thus creating tensions on the team?

    There's a start. Some of those are measurable and some aren't. When I am thinking about an "efficient" shooter and scorer, there are many, many things that could be part of the "equation." And I think the human mind can identify and factor in a zillion more factors, even unconsciously, then a stat machine.
    Thanks for the answer, but I think you are broadening the concept of efficiency. Efficiency in physics is how well energy input is used to get a particular output of work. An engine's efficiency doesn't take into account how efficiently the fuel source can be made, for instance - that would be an efficiency measure at a higher order.

    TS% is measuring how well a single player scores when given the ball. I think what you are trying to do is to consider it a higher order statistic trying to measure how well a single player plays within the offense, which it isn't meant to be.

    As you say, it takes multiple measurements (and things that aren't currently measured) to come up with the information you are considering. However, the immeasurable things that you would have solely determined by the eye can easily be observationally biased - "how often did he take a shot when another player was hot and should have been passed the ball" first assumes hot streaks are facts - extremely arguable, second assumes that all players have the same court vision as an outside observer and nothing is blocked, third assumes the player in question isn't supposed to be shooting rather than passing, and so forth and so on. And unless you actually tally the number of times you see this negative behavior and tally the number of times you don't see the negative behavior, you can't be sure you aren't seeing a pattern that isn't really there or being biased by what you want to see.

    A lot of fans are observationally biased. We have people thinking MDJ shouldn't be allowed to set foot on a basketball floor, thus exposing the sheer stupidity of coaches like Thibs who keep letting him do it. We have any number of players being claimed as clutch and then actually shown to miss more last shots than people remember them missing. The biggest reason for statistics is that they are neutral and force people to decide if they really saw what they thought they saw.
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  26. #266
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eindar View Post
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    Are those FGA being weighted for minutes played? I feel like Paul is playing more minutes than Danny would have during that 19.1 season. Of course, i also think that Paul has a LOT more options in terms of passing, so maybe that's a bad comparison, too.
    Let's see. Paul is attempting 17.5 FGA in 36.5 MPG. 17.5 / 36.5 = 0.479

    So, he is roughly attempting 0.48 shots per minute.

    Granger attempted 19.1 FGA in 36.2 MPG in the 08-09 season. 19.1 / 36.2 = 0.527

    So, Danny was roughly attempting 0.53 shots per minute.

    Danny was shooting more but neither number is particularly huge.

    If we want a really big number let's look at Kobe in 05-06. He attempted 27.2 FGA in 41 MPG. 27.2 / 41 = 0.663

    So, he was attempting a little more than 0.66 shots per minutes. Now, that's an extremity.
    Last edited by Nuntius; 11-06-2013 at 05:35 PM. Reason: I forgot to write Kobe's name
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    Yes, in fact. And also when he misses it. Laugh all you want, but that concept will not be as funny as you might think when Granger returns.
    What if he was supposed to take it? Whose "efficiency" is the problem, then - the guy taking the shot or the guy getting tense because HE wasn't allowed to take the shot?

    That's not efficiency, that's chemistry in the locker room.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    Yes, in fact. And also when he misses it. Laugh all you want, but that concept will not be as funny as you might think when Granger returns.


    I agree tension between teammates is an important factor to look at, but it has absolutely nothing to do with shooting efficiency.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    What if he was supposed to take it?
    What if he wasn't?
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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    I think Granger took a fair number of shots that were rushed, ill advised due to the game situation, etc. Not smart offensive basketball.

    I haven't really seen PG do that this year to the degree I felt Granger came to be doing it.
    JOB was an awful coach that encourages his players to take those shots. So, the players took them.

    Vogel is a very smart coach that has encouraged his team to play at a slower pace and work the shot clock. So, the players are doing that.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    I agree tension between teammates is an important factor to look at, but it has absolutely nothing to do with shooting efficiency.
    By your definition of efficiency. I think having everyone on the floor feeling positive and not angry will help every player make more shots. I'm not real sure about rocket fuel and energy inputs and all that stuff Bill was talking about, but I'm all for happy players.
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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    As you say, it takes multiple measurements (and things that aren't currently measured) to come up with the information you are considering. However, the immeasurable things that you would have solely determined by the eye can easily be observationally biased - "how often did he take a shot when another player was hot and should have been passed the ball" first assumes hot streaks are facts - extremely arguable, second assumes that all players have the same court vision as an outside observer and nothing is blocked, third assumes the player in question isn't supposed to be shooting rather than passing, and so forth and so on. And unless you actually tally the number of times you see this negative behavior and tally the number of times you don't see the negative behavior, you can't be sure you aren't seeing a pattern that isn't really there or being biased by what you want to see.

    A lot of fans are observationally biased. We have people thinking MDJ shouldn't be allowed to set foot on a basketball floor, thus exposing the sheer stupidity of coaches like Thibs who keep letting him do it. We have any number of players being claimed as clutch and then actually shown to miss more last shots than people remember them missing. The biggest reason for statistics is that they are neutral and force people to decide if they really saw what they thought they saw.
    In other words minds play tricks with what we observe based on our biases and other assumptions, which is a scientific fact, and one way to combat these tricks is to use objective statistics.

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  39. #273
    Member Since86's Avatar
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    By your definition of efficiency.
    You created your own definition, and then are complaining because I'm pointing out that it's not the accepted definition. Efficiency ratings are numbers, what you're asking to go into a players shooting efficiency rating cannot be broken down into numbers. You just admitted that some of those questions can't be measured.
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.” ― Ricky Gervais.

    What if someone from a school of business or management school were to ask, How did you do this? How did you get the Pacers turned around? Is there a general approach you've taken that can be summarized?

    Larry Bird: Yeah, patience.

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  41. #274
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    That's what the creators of it say it is. But maybe its more like "scoring pot pouri items" or "extraneous shooting tidbits." They are subjectively placing a word on the following concept:

    0.5 * points === ( 2*(2PT FGM) + 3*(3PT FGM) + 1*(FTM) ) / 2 === (2PT FGM) + 1.5(3PT FGM) + 0.5(FTM)
    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    0.5 * points === ( 2*(2PT FGM) + 3*(3PT FGM) + 1*(FTM) ) / 2 === (2PT FGM) + 1.5(3PT FGM) + 0.5(FTM)

    Basketball, is really a simple and beautiful game.

    No, really it is.

    Believe me.
    What do you have against this formula? Is it because it's a sequence of numbers?

    If George Hill makes 2 3 pointers, 2 layups, and 2 free throws tonight, I'm confident both of you can figure out he scored 12 points in 5 seconds or less.

    Why? Because 2*3 + 2*2 + 2*1 = 12. The points a player or team scores can always be written as a function of the two-point field goals, three-point field goals, and free throws they make. All the forumula (the full formula) does is standardize two-point field goals, three-point field goals, and free throws so they are in terms of two-point field goals.

    This is done under the assumption that if a player scores a certain amount of points, and let's say 20 points, it's worth the same no matter what type of shots they used to get there. This "standardized FGM" statistic(the bit on the right of the last '=' sign in what I've quoted from you) is then divided by the FGA which is modified so as not to give high yield free throw shooters an advantage in the statistic.

    Quote Originally Posted by Neil deGrasse Tyson
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    “The good thing about science is that it's true whether or not you believe in it.”
    Last edited by aamcguy; 11-06-2013 at 04:59 PM.

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  43. #275
    Member Eleazar's Avatar
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Nuntius View Post
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    If we want a really big number let's look at in 05-06. He attempted 27.2 FGA in 41 MPG. 27.2 / 41 = 0.663

    So, he was attempting a little more than 0.66 shots per minutes. Now, that's an extremity.
    Who? Allen Iverson? He is the only player I can think of who would take that many shots.

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