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Thread: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

  1. #401
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    You'll be waiting a long time because this thread never was about that. This thread was about what TS is and I challenged the importance of TS (especially as it relates to your own team and players (and as a caveat I'm talking core players). I challenged it's importance because I believe anyone paying attention can use FGA, FG%, FTA FTM, 3Pers and actual viewing of the games and not need TS. Just viewing the games you know which players play smart, who has a knack for getting to the line, who can create their own shot, who plays smart and within the offense, who breaks plays, who your 3 point shooters are, who is Michael Jordan in garbage time, who is Meek Mouse in crunch time, etc etc etc....

    OTOH, for players you don't watch often TS can give you some insight into their PPG and things you need to look for as you're scouting them or looking at them as a piece to a trade.

    So I see my question as valid and on point and seeking clarity... Your question is moving the goal posts over to the baseball diamond and wouldn't help this thread find clarity no matter what answer you got.
    Yeah, you're right I didn't know how I came up with that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    wintermute got what I was saying.

    I don't hate stats... But I do hate meaningless stats that are used (misused) in meaningless ways that can be better measured with traditional stats and your eyeballs (and the scoreboard).
    I'll go back to the shadows now.
    ďJust because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.Ē ― Ricky Gervais.

    What if someone from a school of business or management school were to ask, How did you do this? How did you get the Pacers turned around? Is there a general approach you've taken that can be summarized?

    Larry Bird: Yeah, patience.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Seriously, these new stats are GLORIOUS. I've been wanting to know these stats for a LONG time, and they're finally here!

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    Yeah, you're right I didn't know how I came up with that.



    I'll go back to the shadows now.
    The pitcher just threw a TD and the PAT by the shortstop was blocked....
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    There are no 'eyes only' guys in this thread so you won't get an answer.
    Yes, there are.

    However, you are not one of them. Your point is that TS% is superfluous, not inaccurate. That a combination of glancing at FG%, 3FG%, and FT% combined by observation is just fine. TS% doesn't "turn over any new stones" in basketball analysis.

    I actually don't disagree with you much. It is a handy short-hand number, but isn't revolutionary or anything. I would rather see eFG% used as the primary stat, with a close range/mid range/3 point percentage split as the secondary instead of the traditional "FG% & 3FG%" splits we typically get.

    Anywho...

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  8. #405

    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    Seriously, these new stats are GLORIOUS. I've been wanting to know these stats for a LONG time, and they're finally here!
    It is stupid how geeked out I am to finally dig into this stuff. The huge array of custom filters is a surprise and very appreciated.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    I also believe that probably one of the reasons why me and others don't believe in stats is because stats people in PD are not doing a good job in using them, when I see a post telling me that Reggie=DG because X stats say so and West=Karl Malone because Y stats say so then I'm going to believe that the stats they are using are garbage.

    Maybe if stats people here do a better job at reading the stats we would not be as skeptic, leaving bias behind while explaining stats could also help(see Tyler/Mcbob stats comparisons).

  11. #407
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by FlavaDave View Post
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    Yes, there are.

    However, you are not one of them. Your point is that TS% is superfluous, not inaccurate. That a combination of glancing at FG%, 3FG%, and FT% combined by observation is just fine. TS% doesn't "turn over any new stones" in basketball analysis.

    I actually don't disagree with you much. It is a handy short-hand number, but isn't revolutionary or anything. I would rather see eFG% used as the primary stat, with a close range/mid range/3 point percentage split as the secondary instead of the traditional "FG% & 3FG%" splits we typically get.

    Anywho...
    All I saw were people accused of being eyes only guys in this thread but I don't recall anyone willingly accepting that label. But if you can find 'em it'll make this thread plenty more interesting when they reply....
    .
    O'Brien has been fired! Yay! What took so long?

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    "A player who makes a team great is more valuable than a great player. Losing yourself in the group, for the good of the group, thatís teamwork."

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by FlavaDave View Post
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    Yes, there are.

    However, you are not one of them. Your point is that TS% is superfluous, not inaccurate. That a combination of glancing at FG%, 3FG%, and FT% combined by observation is just fine. TS% doesn't "turn over any new stones" in basketball analysis.

    I actually don't disagree with you much. It is a handy short-hand number, but isn't revolutionary or anything. I would rather see eFG% used as the primary stat, with a close range/mid range/3 point percentage split as the secondary instead of the traditional "FG% & 3FG%" splits we typically get.

    Anywho...
    BTW... thanks for getting it and expressing my point more concisely than I did. You are exactly correct about what I've been trying to say.
    O'Brien has been fired! Yay! What took so long?

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    "A player who makes a team great is more valuable than a great player. Losing yourself in the group, for the good of the group, thatís teamwork."

    -John Wooden

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    About the only thing I feel is missing with the stats I've seen so far is that while it's a crazy-huge improvement on the shooting statistics, they don't divide contested and uncontested shots, which I think should be entirely possible with this technology once you pin down how you want to define contested. They really ought to because while it's difficult to get everyone to agree on what contested really is, you could probably be 'close enough' to justify logging it so long as you explicitly state how YOU are defining contested. I'd settle for just defining it as having an opponent within X.Y feet of you when you shoot. At least do that and call it 'in traffic' or something if they're not comfortable saying that's enough to define 'contested.'

    But other than that, this is amazing.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    I also believe that probably one of the reasons why me and others don't believe in stats is because stats people in PD are not doing a good job in using them, when I see a post telling me that Reggie=DG because X stats say so and West=Karl Malone because Y stats say so then I'm going to believe that the stats they are using are garbage.

    Maybe if stats people here do a better job at reading the stats we would not be as skeptic, leaving bias behind while explaining stats could also help(see Tyler/Mcbob stats comparisons).
    Maybe if the people who disagree would use something other than "I don't see that, using stats is stupid" it might be a discussion rather than a brawl.

    There will ALWAYS be differences of opinion, and dismissing the tool used by someone you disagree with isn't going to somehow make their opinion go away. Take the challenge to use countermanding stats instead of always saying "you must not watch the games" or "says the fanboy" or other condescending replies.
    BillS

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    All I saw were people accused of being eyes only guys in this thread but I don't recall anyone willingly accepting that label. But if you can find 'em it'll make this thread plenty more interesting when they reply....
    .
    Ture, but "calling people out" and trying to win debates isn't my thing. I am authentically interested in an eye-test vs. computer data exercise. I am authentically interested in sharing new ideas and approaches to understand the game I love.

    The exercise I devised was to find out two things:

    1) If people are able to accurately evaluate and categorize the ability to win contested rebounds live and on-the-fly. Even coaches need tape to evaluate games. Professional coaches can't even do this. We might have a few wunderkinds in our mists, perhaps the next Brad Stevens rags-to-riches hire?

    2) To potentially prove the point that the SportsVU data are the fruit of the decade-long "advance stats" movement in the NBA, and it is outstanding. That these stats are a mind-blowing way to get an accurate look at things we haven't been able to understand before. That these stats are incredibly useful at getting a sophisticated look at the "state of the NBA" without watching every single second of every single game.

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  20. #412
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by FlavaDave View Post
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    Ture, but "calling people out" and trying to win debates isn't my thing. I am authentically interested in an eye-test vs. computer data exercise. I am authentically interested in sharing new ideas and approaches to understand the game I love.

    The exercise I devised was to find out two things:

    1) If people are able to accurately evaluate and categorize the ability to win contested rebounds live and on-the-fly. Even coaches need tape to evaluate games. Professional coaches can't even do this. We might have a few wunderkinds in our mists, perhaps the next Brad Stevens rags-to-riches hire?

    2) To potentially prove the point that the SportsVU data are the fruit of the decade-long "advance stats" movement in the NBA, and it is outstanding. That these stats are a mind-blowing way to get an accurate look at things we haven't been able to understand before. That these stats are incredibly useful at getting a sophisticated look at the "state of the NBA" without watching every single second of every single game.
    I can't disagree with a thing here.
    O'Brien has been fired! Yay! What took so long?

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    "A player who makes a team great is more valuable than a great player. Losing yourself in the group, for the good of the group, thatís teamwork."

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  22. #413

    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bball View Post
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    I can't disagree with a thing here.
    Peace has finally come to the PD kingdom!

    Want to hold hands and sing "Kumbaya"?

  23. #414

    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    And here's where I have a little problem with this response. Just saying "Troy Murphy is a bad basketball player" is too general a statement for the application of statistics. You have to define what you mean by "bad", because - contrary to Pacerfan belief - Troy actually could do things like score the ball and rebound. We discount the scoring because the team didn't win, and we discount the rebounding because we maintain the story that all his rebounds were easy or stolen, but I seriously doubt those tales because they are the very definition of remembering what we want to remember (and blaming the player for how he was used by the coach).

    Only a little more refinement makes the statement testable - "Troy Murphy is a bad classic PF" - and suddenly there are all kinds of things you can use to test and compare - points in the paint, deflections, contested rebounds. In any case head-to-head defensive stats - which lag WAY behind the development of offensive stats, not least because they are hard to define objectively and to see in the course of a game - would show major flaws at that end of the floor.

    I will always maintain that Troy had skills that, in the right hands and at the right time of the game, would be valuable. The problem was that he should have been a perimeter SF rather than a PF, but he didn't have the body (speed) for it.

    I remember how people absolutely reviled Jeff Foster when he was forced into the position of being the Pacers' starting center. Once he was able to go back to coming off the bench and had the luxury to specialize in what he was best at, he amazingly "got better".
    Let me refine my statment a bit by saying that Troy Murphy is not a player that helps you win a lot of baskeball games as a starter. If he's coming off of the bench to shoot 3s, or if he's the weak link in your starting lineup, you can be a good basketball team. More specifically, in particular matchups where you want to keep the opponent's 4 away from the rim, he's a good matchup. But, overall, starting Troy Murphy on your NBA basketball team is not a good idea if you plan to win a title. By example, the natural argument is that he would be great on the Heat. Well, Troy in his prime made $10 million dollars per season, so the Heat couldn't afford him, and even if they could, Carlos Boozer and David West would terrorize him in the post, or those teams could go small and put Taj Gibson or a Danny Granger on him and completely neutralize him on offense, and drive right by him on defense. He does not clean the offensive glass, so there's also no punishment for putting a small forward in the lineup against him.

    Murphy's destiny was to be a 3rd or 4th big off of the bench for a contender, where he could cause matchup problems and prop up a second unit offense. But at the salary he commanded, he was never going to fill that role, and never be on a title contender in a meaningful capacity.

    So, yeah, he was a bad basketball player in that, if he was on your books at $10 million per season, your GM could pretty much start shopping for his suit for the lottery on opening day.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eindar View Post
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    So, yeah, he was a bad basketball player in that, if he was on your books at $10 million per season, your GM could pretty much start shopping for his suit for the lottery on opening day.
    Well, that opens a whole 'nother can of worms - I think who you play should have zip zero zilch nada to do with how much they make. Salary is the FOs problem. Putting the best team on the floor is the Coach's problem.

    But that's even more off-topic than this thread has already gotten...
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  27. #416

    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by FlavaDave View Post
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    It is stupid how geeked out I am to finally dig into this stuff. The huge array of custom filters is a surprise and very appreciated.
    They are public? Can you link?

  28. #417

    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    By the way, when did pacersdigest turn into clutchfans? I'm surprised to open PD and see a 17 page long thread about stats. I would expect that in the Daryl Morey land, not here.

  29. #418

    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by hackashaq View Post
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    They are public? Can you link?
    Sure! nba.com/stats

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    If you want to get closer to the meatier new stats, I'd start with this link: http://stats.nba.com/playerTracking.html With any of those categories, click "View All" to get to the best stuff.

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  33. #420

    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    So nba.com is getting serious, huh. Nice.

  34. #421

    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    Well, that opens a whole 'nother can of worms - I think who you play should have zip zero zilch nada to do with how much they make. Salary is the FOs problem. Putting the best team on the floor is the Coach's problem.

    But that's even more off-topic than this thread has already gotten...
    All stakeholders in the franchise (fans, coach, GM, President, Owner, City) have a vested interest in fielding the best possible team to get the best possible chance to win a title. Given that we are working with some arbitrary number (dependent upon willingness to go over the cap/tax) of dollars we can spend, an overspend on a player has a trickle-down effect on the team's ability to win games, because the coach has less overall talent to work with compared to an opposing coach who has the same budget spent on his roster, but spent wisely.

    I stand by my statement. if Troy Murphy is your starting PF, making $10 million per year, you're going to have a hard time winning a title, unless your last name is Prokhorov, or you've got Lebron James on a rookie contract to offset that salary.

  35. #422
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eindar View Post
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    All stakeholders in the franchise (fans, coach, GM, President, Owner, City) have a vested interest in fielding the best possible team to get the best possible chance to win a title. Given that we are working with some arbitrary number (dependent upon willingness to go over the cap/tax) of dollars we can spend, an overspend on a player has a trickle-down effect on the team's ability to win games, because the coach has less overall talent to work with compared to an opposing coach who has the same budget spent on his roster, but spent wisely.

    I stand by my statement. if Troy Murphy is your starting PF, making $10 million per year, you're going to have a hard time winning a title, unless your last name is Prokhorov, or you've got Lebron James on a rookie contract to offset that salary.
    Eh, I don't know. They just won 2 in a row while paying Chris Bosh $17M, which turns into $20M next year. I bet Murphy could have given them 12/7 on a team with LeBron. Not saying Murphy is as good as Bosh overall, but surely he could have filled that small of a role. Certainly wouldn't have been much worse.
    ďJust because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right.Ē ― Ricky Gervais.

    What if someone from a school of business or management school were to ask, How did you do this? How did you get the Pacers turned around? Is there a general approach you've taken that can be summarized?

    Larry Bird: Yeah, patience.

  36. #423

    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    If you want to get closer to the meatier new stats, I'd start with this link: http://stats.nba.com/playerTracking.html With any of those categories, click "View All" to get to the best stuff.

    Thanks. I was on a mobile device earlier and was too lazy to flesh out the link.

  37. #424

    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    Eh, I don't know. They just won 2 in a row while paying Chris Bosh $17M, which turns into $20M next year. I bet Murphy could have given them 12/7 on a team with LeBron. Not saying Murphy is as good as Bosh overall, but surely he could have filled that small of a role. Certainly wouldn't have been much worse.
    Well, seems like this is a fine time to see if stats can tell us something. Essentially Troy would be asked with being the 3rd best player on his team in Miami, the same role as in Indiana. I also assume that he'd be as effective or more effective offensively, because he would be asked to shoot open shots. Having Murphy would also open up wider driving lanes, as he had much long ranger than Bosh has. However, you remove virtually all threat of a post-up, which is a weapon that Bosh has in his arsenal. This will compare Troy Murphy as a Pacer to Chris Bosh as a Heat. To the stats!:


    G MP PER TS% eFG% FTr 3PAr ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
    Chris Bosh 212 7387 19.5 .574 .515 .382 .051 6.4 19.3 13.2 8.7 1.3 2.2 10.7 23.4 113 102 15.7 11.0 26.7 .174
    Troy Murphy 262 8117 16.9 .583 .545 .261 .380 6.0 26.8 16.3 10.9 1.3 1.1 10.7 18.0 116 105 14.4 10.9 25.3 .149

    What I see in those numbers is that they are roughly equal rebounders, due to Bosh being a slightly better offensive rebounder, but a poorer defensive rebounder. Troy is a more efficient shooter, which is no surprise, but Bosh has the higher PER, which I believe is a better indicator of overall offensive efficiency (PER penalizes for things like turnovers). Also, the only year that Murphy had a Usage rating as high as what Bosh averaged (his third year at Golden State), his shooting suffered, and was well below that Bosh has averaged as a member of the Heat. To me, that indicates that Murphy would not be able to handle a higher usage rate.

    So, on offense, it looks like Bosh enjoys a marginal advantage over Murphy. However, defense changes things. Bosh plays significant time at Center for the Heat. We've seen Murphy play minutes at Center, and I remember it as being not pretty. I don't know where to find the stats for opponent's stats when players are on/off the court, but that would be a good stat to have for this comparison.

    My gut is that if you replace Chris Bosh with 2009 Troy Murphy, West and Hibbert have even better offensive stats, and would have badly dominated the glass, although Murphy would also have a field day raining threes on those players. Bottom line, I think the Pacers win that series if you swap Bosh for Murphy and also add 6 million of replacement level salary, say an Afllalo or similar type of player.
    Last edited by Eindar; 11-07-2013 at 05:19 PM.

  38. #425

    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    A few decades ago baseball sabermetrics had its revolution in part because analysts realized the game was only technically a team sport, and that it was more aptly dissected as a sequence of outcomes that involve sovereign performers competing in one-on-one encounters. But basketball exhibits the exact opposite nature and is in desperate need of a very different kind of analytical revolution. Unlike home runs or strikeouts, almost every basket, made or missed, in the NBA is the product of teamwork — coordinated and connected actions by multiple actors behaving (or in some cases, attempting to behave) as a unit. As a result, every basketball analysis that fails to account for the natural ecology of the game is inherently flawed — and to this point, almost all “advanced” analyses make no such ecological considerations.
    There’s no way to accurately characterize an individual basketball player without considering his situational habitat. Yet this is what we all do on a daily basis. We constantly cite individual basketball stats like points, field goal percentage, and assists as if they were home runs. I am as guilty as anyone. Ellis’s shot chart from last season is horrible, there’s no doubt about that — but what does that actually tell us? It tells us he was very active and his shots from the field went in at below-average rates, which is true, but that’s not the whole truth. Part of the problem is that our spreadsheets can’t handle the truth.
    That's a good tidbit from the new article by Goldsberry, another argument stats is only a secondary tool and is innately flawed due to the team nature of the sport.

    http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-tr...of-monta-ellis

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