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Thread: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Stats?

    Two words: Troy Murphy

    Two stats: 45% from 3 point range and 11.8 rebounds per game...in 2008.

    Question: How many playoff games has he competed in?
    LeWade are going down.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    Stats?

    Two words: Troy Murphy

    Two stats: 45% from 3 point range and 11.8 rebounds per game...in 2008.

    Question: How many playoff games has he competed in?


    What do those two stats have to do with playoff appearances?

    Are you saying that he should't have been shooting threes?

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    All stats are meaningless because Murphy could shoot threes and never played in the playoffs.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    Okay, maybe I was just over-thinking it. TS (I'm going to stop including % because that now annoys me and confuses the issue of what the stat really is) is ultimately points per shot while also including FTAs. The artificial .44 or .475 in some cases that gets thrown in doesn't sit well with me, now that I recall its inclusion, too.
    You'd have to ask Seth or the count to get a real clear explanation of the .44, but it is basically a way to quantify the extra free throws , and 1's, Tech's. Otherwise the FT part of the equation is overvalued. It is my understanding that those numbers are looked at periodically by the stat geeks and are still valid.

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    You tell me which guy gets the girl (wins games). The one who reads 20 books on dating and analyzes every possibility . . . or the guy who looks over the situation and uses his gut instincts?
    Isn't this a false choice. The guy that wins the games in the NBA is the guy that has done the research and knows the correct strategy to apply. Instead of just guessing.

    Not to say you cannot be a successful guesser. There are guys who just know how to play and can see the game around them naturally. The same thing is true about some coaches and GM's. But most guys, at least in the NBA, it appears, use stats to make their decision making process better.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by kent beckley View Post
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    What do those two stats have to do with playoff appearances?

    Are you saying that he should't have been shooting threes?
    Let me connect the dots for you. The point is, great stats, even if they are fairly broad don't mean the player is any good. Murphy has always had good or even great stats but he is no winner. On those stat stuffing JOb years, that benefited Granger as well, Murphy racked up big time stats. Yet he never has sniffed a playoff game as key contributor on any NBA team.

    I think he might have seen the playoffs as a Laker, but he scored like 3ppg for them.
    LeWade are going down.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by xIndyFan View Post
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    Isn't this a false choice.
    Not really. The guy who reads all the dating books almost never gets the girl.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    Somehow a stat that combines how well a player shoots 2's, 3's, FT's, and how often they get to the line has no value. Amazing.

    I guess we should ignore the statistic known as rebounds because as we all know, you don't need to know how well your team rebounded to see who won the game.....
    Not a valid analogy at all.

    In fact it entirely misses the point.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    Let me connect the dots for you. The point is, great stats, even if they are fairly broad don't mean the player is any good. Murphy has always had good or even great stats but he is no winner. On those stat stuffing JOb years, that benefited Granger as well, Murphy racked up big time stats. Yet he never has sniffed a playoff game as key contributor on any NBA team.

    I think he might have seen the playoffs as a Laker, but he scored like 3ppg for them.
    Or it just means there are more to the game of basketball than how well you shoot 3's and rebound the ball. You know, like defense.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Eleazar View Post
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    Or it just means there are more to the game of basketball than how well you shoot 3's and rebound the ball. You know, like defense.
    Agreed. Just ask Coach K.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    You tell me which guy gets the girl (wins games). The one who reads 20 books on dating and analyzes every possibility . . . or the guy who looks over the situation and uses his gut instincts?
    In the Moneyball example, the guy who focused on analytics is the one who won the games.

    That's why they made a book and a movie about it - because it worked.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    Hey, it's a simple stat taken at face value:

    0.5 * points === ( 2*(2PT FGM) + 3*(3PT FGM) + 1*(FTM) ) / 2 === (2PT FGM) + 1.5(3PT FGM) + 0.5(FTM)

    I have no idea why BBall would undervalue it.



    Just because you don't want to try to understand something doesn't mean its not both simple and intuitive. If you don't want to know why something is computed the way it is, that's fine, but then resist from saying the stat isn't applicable.

    And I'm not using simple to demean anybody, I expanded the equation using basic algebra and explained its relevance in terms of the rules of the NBA and a simple statistical principal.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    Not really. The guy who reads all the dating books almost never gets the girl.
    If a guy is reading dating books, he probably can't get a girl without them. That's why he's reading them.
    Last edited by aamcguy; 11-05-2013 at 10:10 PM.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    Hey, it's a simple stat taken at face value:

    0.5 * points === ( 2*(2PT FGM) + 3*(3PT FGM) + 1*(FTM) ) / 2 === (2PT FGM) + 1.5(3PT FGM) + 0.5(FTM)

    I have no idea why BBall would undervalue it.



    The result of the formula is a pretty simple number taken at face value
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by aamcguy View Post
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    Just because you don't want to try to understand something doesn't mean its not both simple and intuitive. If you don't want to know why something is computed the way it is, that's fine, but then resist from saying the stat isn't applicable.

    And I'm not using simple to demean anybody, I expanded the equation using basic algebra and explained its relevance in terms of the rules of the NBA and a simple statistical principal.
    I probably went slightly over the top with satire on a couple posts in this thread, but I think what got me going were the two or three "at face value" comments.

    I imagine there might be some interesting nuggets to gain from a stat that attempts to factor threes, FTs, and-1's, etc into a shooting percentage. I made As and Bs in calculus back in the day and could probably figure this TS thing out if I had the time and inclination. But I don't.
    Last edited by McKeyFan; 11-05-2013 at 07:19 PM.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    Let me connect the dots for you. The point is, great stats, even if they are fairly broad don't mean the player is any good. Murphy has always had good or even great stats but he is no winner. On those stat stuffing JOb years, that benefited Granger as well, Murphy racked up big time stats. Yet he never has sniffed a playoff game as key contributor on any NBA team.

    I think he might have seen the playoffs as a Laker, but he scored like 3ppg for them.
    And let me connect the dots for you. No one said that Murphy is good. The stats are not saying that Murphy is good. The only thing that the stats say is that Murphy is an efficient shooter that can rebound the ball. That's it. I'll say it again.

    Don't try to force statistics into contexts that they do not belong in. That is the definition of misinterpreting them.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    I probably went slightly over the top with sature on a couple posts in this thread, but I think what got me going were the two or three "at face value" comments.

    I imagine there might be some interesting nuggets to gain from a stat that attempts to factor threes, FTs, and-1's, etc into a shooting percentage. I made As and Bs in calculus back in the day and could probably figure this TS thing out if I had the time and inclination. But I don't.
    I am the one who made the "at face value" comments. If I'm right, the idiom "at face value" translates to "apparent value". In other words, it indicates that whatever is written "at face value" means exactly what it says. That's my point here.

    TS% is exactly what it says. It is a measurement of scoring efficiency. That's what TS% is "at face value".

    It is NOT a stat that measures how good a player is and it is NOT a stat that promotes the idea that teams should shoot more 3s. It just measures how efficient a player scores. That's it. That's what I mean by "at face value".
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Nuntius View Post
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    And let me connect the dots for you. No one said that Murphy is good. The stats are not saying that Murphy is good. The only thing that the stats say is that Murphy is an efficient shooter that can rebound the ball. That's it. I'll say it again.

    Don't try to force statistics into contexts that they do not belong in. That is the definition of misinterpreting them.
    Sorry, but Murphy is the poster child for stats lacking real-world value. On paper he looked great. If you want to build your house on that sand, go on.
    LeWade are going down.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Nuntius View Post
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    If I'm right, the idiom "at face value" translates to "apparent value".
    I just didn't find anything "apparent" by the math formula.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by McKeyFan View Post
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    I just didn't find anything "apparent" by the math formula.
    I'm not talking about the formula. I'm talking about the result. The result of said formula is a simple number that is very easily understood. That's the apparent part.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    Sorry, but Murphy is the poster child for stats lacking real-world value. On paper he looked great. If you want to build your house on that sand, go on.
    Once again you're trying to interpret the stats.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Nuntius View Post
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    Once again you're trying to interpret the stats.
    Ok. Forgive me. I agree nobody should be interpreting stats. I promise I will never ever do it again...
    LeWade are going down.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Nuntius View Post
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    Once again you're trying to interpret the stats.
    Without trying to interpret the stats through the application of the TS% metric for the purposes of gauging the significance of the stats it analyzes, why bother to even look at them in that way at all?

    In other words, what would the purpose of the metric be if future decisions are not going to be based at least in part on the interpretation of the results of the metric?

    Or, as some would put it, without proper context the TS% metric is possibly one of the least useful of the more easily understood advanced metrics in basketball. For me, it rivals the much debated +/- in terms of actual significance of understanding what actually occurred during the course of a given game or even a given season.

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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by Brad8888 View Post
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    Without trying to interpret the stats through the application of the TS% metric for the purposes of gauging the significance of the stats it analyzes, why bother to even look at them in that way at all?

    In other words, what would the purpose of the metric be if future decisions are not going to be based at least in part on the interpretation of the results of the metric?

    Or, as some would put it, without proper context the TS% metric is possibly one of the least useful of the more easily understood advanced metrics in basketball. For me, it rivals the much debated +/- in terms of actual significance of understanding what actually occurred during the course of a given game or even a given season.
    The game was beggining so I made a pretty big mistake in my post. I used the word "interpret" instead of the word "misinterpret". That's a pretty big difference and I'm sorry about that mistake of mine.

    BnG is trying to argue that the stats indicate that a high TS% and high rebounding numbers suddenly mean that someone is "great". He is not putting the stats in the proper context. He is simply misinterpreting them and skewes their meaning.

    I'll say it once again.

    High TS% + Lots of Rebounds =/= Great player.

    High TS% + Lots of Rebounds = Efficient scorer that can rebound the ball.

    There is a big difference between those two.
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    Default Re: True Shooting % Explained: Which is more important? A higher FG% or a higher TS%?

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueNGold View Post
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    Ok. Forgive me. I agree nobody should be interpreting stats. I promise I will never ever do it again...
    I'm sorry, I wanted to write that you misinterpret the stats but the game was starting and screwed up. Read my above post for the full explanation.
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