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Thread: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

  1. #51
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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    Next year should be easy. "Year 11: Turning It Up a Notch"
    On a related note, I was really close to doing a Pearl jam theme this year. First cd I ever purchased, and first concert I ever attended. It just didn't mesh with this season, though. It's gotta mesh.

    It wasn't about being the team everyone loved, it was about beating the teams everyone else loved.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute View Post
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    Year 11: This is Spinal Tap?

    Btw, I don't think using Jordan or Kobe as examples really prove anything. You can very well look at Durant's percentages from midrange and conclude that midrange shots are efficient. Or look at Steph Curry's and wonder why the whole league isn't raining 3's left and right.
    Except curry and Durant aren't 35 years old...

    The point was never that Jordan and Kobe were mid-range killers. The point was that as non-bigs, they were/are able to dominate games at an advanced age and an athletic disadvantage, because of their ability to use the midrange game and consistently draw fouls 8-12 feet from the rim, which is less a test of athleticism and more of a chess match.

    I can find a lot of scoring guards that make their living launching threes, albeit with varying degrees of success. Find me a lot of scorers that make their living in the post 8-12 feet from the rim. Show me the role player that can take his defender in the high post, back him in and shoot over the top. You can't. It's a specialized skill that's extremely hard to learn, but the guys that do are all-stars.
    Last edited by Kstat; 10-16-2013 at 09:23 AM.

    It wasn't about being the team everyone loved, it was about beating the teams everyone else loved.

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  4. #53

    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    Mid range shots are much more likely to draw fouls and offensive rebounds than threes. Maybe not 20 feet, but the 8-12 foot range is very valuable.
    That sounds right, and I would have guessed that you were correct through my own instincts and observations.

    But it actually isn't. NBA teams in general rebound 40% of their three point misses vs. 33% of their mid range shots. Not a gigantic difference, but the idea that mid range shots are rebounded more often is untrue and is one of the key points in the philosophy that mid range jumpers are highly inefficient for all but maybe 50 players in the NBA.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by FlavaDave View Post
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    That sounds right, and I would have guessed that you were correct through my own instincts and observations.

    But it actually isn't. NBA teams in general rebound 40% of their three point misses vs. 33% of their mid range shots. Not a gigantic difference, but the idea that mid range shots are rebounded more often is untrue and is one of the key points in the philosophy that mid range jumpers are highly inefficient for all but maybe 50 players in the NBA.
    I'd argue that it's because modern players simply aren't very good at it, and many mid range shots now are afterthoughts, as opposed to go-to shots.

    In addition, if you're a really good post guard, you're going to collapse a defense simply by posting up. Problem is we only have a few of those guys in the nba right now.

    I'd add that of the top ten teams in the nba last season in attempting threes, nine of them ranked in the bottom half of the nba in offensive rebounding (the lone exception being the lakers at 14th) including three of the bottom five.
    Last edited by Kstat; 10-16-2013 at 09:37 AM.

    It wasn't about being the team everyone loved, it was about beating the teams everyone else loved.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Not only can you look at individual players, but also the league as a whole. Scoring before the 3pt line was higher than it is now. They've not only added the 3pt line, and gotten less scoring, they've also tightened the rules against defenses to make scoring easier and scoring still went down.

    I agree with P4E that a lot of coaches don't like shooting midrange shots, and they discourage them. Look no further for reasons why percentages are down and midrange shots aren't efficient.
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right. ― Ricky Gervais.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    I'd argue that it's because modern players simply aren't very good at it, and many mid range shots now are afterthoughts, as opposed to go-to shots.

    In addition, if you're a really good post guard, you're going to collapse a defense simply by posting up. Problem is we only have a few of those guys in the nba right now.
    One of those "chicken or the egg" things - which came first, the degeneration of skills or the change in offensive philosophy?

    I think that the decline of the mid-range jumper came first, because in a flashy AAU/street ball world the midrange doesn't get noticed like attacking the rim or swishing a 3-pointer. Given that, defenses stopped worrying about it and offenses stopped working on recovering from a mid-range miss.

    That said, I think the telling difference might be to look not just at defensive vs. offensive rebounds but look at points from those rebounds. A defensive rebound from a hard 3-point miss would seem to lead to quick points more often than a defensive rebound of a mid-range, while an offensive rebound of the same miss would find the defense still pretty much in position.
    BillS

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    One of those "chicken or the egg" things - which came first, the degeneration of skills or the change in offensive philosophy?

    I think that the decline of the mid-range jumper came first, because in a flashy AAU/street ball world the midrange doesn't get noticed like attacking the rim or swishing a 3-pointer. Given that, defenses stopped worrying about it and offenses stopped working on recovering from a mid-range miss.

    That said, I think the telling difference might be to look not just at defensive vs. offensive rebounds but look at points from those rebounds. A defensive rebound from a hard 3-point miss would seem to lead to quick points more often than a defensive rebound of a mid-range, while an offensive rebound of the same miss would find the defense still pretty much in position.
    I don't think teams practice to rebound mid range shots, I just think players usually take them as second and third options, because they aren't comfortable with them, and defenses don't respect them. Now, a guy that can post in the mid range will create more offensive rebounds because eventually, guys will be out of position.

    You could go back 30 years when three point percentages were awful, because players simply weren't comfortable launching from 24 feet out. The three was the shot defenses wanted to force you into taking.

    It wasn't about being the team everyone loved, it was about beating the teams everyone else loved.

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  11. #58

    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    I'd add that of the top ten teams in the nba last season in attempting threes, nine of them ranked in the bottom half of the nba in offensive rebounding (the lone exception being the lakers at 14th) including three of the bottom five.
    Not sure of your source, but you are missing Brooklyn and the Clippers. Both were top ten in 3 point attempts per game and offensive rebounding rate. Still, the point stands. That's only three out of ten.

    It is also worth noting that, out of the 10 teams that attempted the most mid range shots, only 5 were in the top half of the league in offensive rebounding rate.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    My season ticket relationship with the Pacers is off to a rocky start. My GF gets an email this morning reminding us that we have tickets to tonights game. Huh? She forwards the email to me, and sure enough, we have tickets. I log into our ticket account page, and the first thing that I see is that we've paid half of our total invoice so far. News to me, I thought I only paid the initial downpayment. We had asked when we should receive the payment plan, and were told that it wouldn't be until the season started. Good thing I had the money in my account. (obviously you can tell that I'm really good at keeping my account balanced) I'm actually relieved that it's getting paid, but then I notice the real problem......

    WE DON'T HAVE TICKETS TO OPENNING NIGHT! Tickets for tonight are listed, tickets for the Cavs game on Nov 2 is listed, tickets for the Bulls game on Nov 6 is listed, tickets against the Grizz on Nov 11 is listed, but nothing for Oct 29 against the Magic.

    Now I'm pissed.

    EDIT: Wow, that was fast customer service. Something about a computer quirk with the tickets, said that we should be able to view/print the tickets for opening night after next Monday but he confirmed we do have them. Crisis averted.
    Last edited by Since86; 10-16-2013 at 10:45 AM.
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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by pacer4ever View Post
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    That is not a new system almost every coach preaches that. Stan Van Gundy's system is based on that(I still LOL at his video's speaking at the SLOAN conference the guy is so anti mid range. He said he was thrilled in ORL that his personal sucked from mid range. I agree with Stan the mid range shot is awful in most circumstances. It is nice to have to keep defenders off balance but I would never encourage it)

    Hell I was at Xavier's practice last week and that is there approach on defense. No 3s and no paint(they are a packline team which is a concept many NBA teams use). It isn't a new concept I highly doubt teams change much from what they have done in the past. How the Pacers play defense isnt any thing special Xs and 0s wise. They just have the horses to play defense at a high level and they stay committed.

    Yes the packline defense is not an innovative set by the Pacers. I can see where my statement could suggest that. Maybe every coach preaches the defense, but few practice it. If teams really wanted to shut down the inside would they put Christ Bosh at center? Melo at PF?

    If coaches really wanted to stop dribble penetration and closeout on shooters would the play their chuckers over defensive stoppers?

    And the reason why midrange shots are awful is because it is a lost art. Go back and watch the 1986 finals . Midrange shooters are deadly. Dennis Johnson knew that he wasn't a shooter took two hard dribbles in and knocked it down.

    Tell Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan that the midrange game is awful. Sure some people aren't good at it. But we have not developed that part of the game. Instead they are content with shooting from three and over penetrating. There is a reason turnover rates are higher now. We are content with over dribbling into defenses and hitting that corner three so much that sinking defenses pick it off.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    This is like arguing the sky hook is an inefficient shot, because league percentages have sucked since 1990.

    Watch Kobe play, and how much pressure he puts on a defense 12-15 feet from they basket. He's old and slow, but he's still among league leaders in free throws attempted, and he shoots a crazy percentage from the elbow and the baseline. It has nothing to do with athletic superiority anymore, and everything to do with dedication to his craft.
    Last edited by Kstat; 10-16-2013 at 10:45 AM.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Luol Deng, Rose and Boozer take a lot of midrange jump shoots. That should scare Pacer fans. Because if we run them off the line and pack the lane I hope that we can bother them enough.

    Dirk is great. Bosh is the most efficient. I want to see Rondo's midrange percentages in the playoffs. When he was questionably the best player on the court against the Heat, was it because he was knocking down that midrange jumper?

    2012 Playoffs

    2011 Playoffs



    It should be save to say that the midrange game is in fact a game changer in todays NBA.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    This is like arguing the sky hook is an inefficient shot, because league percentages have sucked since 1990.

    Watch Kobe play, and how much pressure he puts on a defense 12-15 feet from they basket. He's old and slow, but he's still among league leaders in free throws attempted, and he shoots a crazy percentage from the elbow and the baseline. It has nothing to do with athletic superiority anymore, and everything to do with dedication to his craft.
    You would be an idiot to say that an elite sky hook shooter shouldn't shoot sky hooks. You would be an idiot to suggest that a terrible sky hook shooter should take more sky hook shots.

    Can you point out someone on this board or a national writer who is arguing that no mid range shots should be taken in the NBA? Can you point to someone who is saying that elite mid range shooters shouldn't take mid range shots? The same writers who advocate the "new thinking" that non-elite mid range shooters should carve that area out of their game will drool over the mid range game of Nash, Durant, Chris Paul, LeBron James, etc. Those guys are special BECAUSE of their elite mid range games, and the strategic advantage that skill brings.

    The point is that, on average, NBA players shoot 38.9% from mid range. Roughly only 50-60 players who played 25+ minutes per game shot above 40% from mid range, which roughly gives you two guys per 5-7 man "heavy minutes" rotation.

    We aren't talking about the elite shooters here. We are talking about the other 2/3rds of the league who can be logically criticized for taking a bad shot when it is from that range.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    That was kinda tl;dr. Here is a bite-sized thought:

    The old thinking was that only elite jump shooters should take 3's, and average jump shooters should stick to mid range shots. The new thinking is that only elite jump shooters should shoot from mid range, and average jump shooters should only shoot from three.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by FlavaDave View Post
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    That was kinda tl;dr. Here is a bite-sized thought:

    The old thinking was that only elite jump shooters should take 3's, and average jump shooters should stick to mid range shots. The new thinking is that only elite jump shooters should shoot from mid range, and average jump shooters should only shoot from three.
    And as a result, you get an offense that looks like JOb's wet dream. No thanks.
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right. ― Ricky Gervais.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    Except curry and Durant aren't 35 years old...

    The point was never that Jordan and Kobe were mid-range killers. The point was that as non-bigs, they were/are able to dominate games at an advanced age and an athletic disadvantage, because of their ability to use the midrange game and consistently draw fouls 8-12 feet from the rim, which is less a test of athleticism and more of a chess match.

    I can find a lot of scoring guards that make their living launching threes, albeit with varying degrees of success. Find me a lot of scorers that make their living in the post 8-12 feet from the rim. Show me the role player that can take his defender in the high post, back him in and shoot over the top. You can't. It's a specialized skill that's extremely hard to learn, but the guys that do are all-stars.
    And how does that tie in with your problem with the shot chart, again?

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    Not only can you look at individual players, but also the league as a whole. Scoring before the 3pt line was higher than it is now. They've not only added the 3pt line, and gotten less scoring, they've also tightened the rules against defenses to make scoring easier and scoring still went down.

    I agree with P4E that a lot of coaches don't like shooting midrange shots, and they discourage them. Look no further for reasons why percentages are down and midrange shots aren't efficient.
    Isn't this neglecting to mention how much better/smarter defense has gotten in the NBA?

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    And as a result, you get an offense that looks like JOb's wet dream. No thanks.
    Explain. Because there's more to Jim O'Brien's philosophy than preferring 3's to long 2's.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    And how does that tie in with your problem with the shot chart, again?
    The shot chart implies that mid range shots are inefficient. They are not. The type of mid range shots and the players taking them are inefficient.

    It wasn't about being the team everyone loved, it was about beating the teams everyone else loved.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    Isn't this neglecting to mention how much better/smarter defense has gotten in the NBA?
    Have they? Not being a sarcastic dick, but it's a serious question. We tend to believe that philosophies bouncing around are new, when they aren't. The complications of defenses arise when you talk about what defensive players switch, and which ones don't, and your team recognizing those. Or what offensive players you switch off of, and which ones you don't, etc.

    Rotations are finite, there's only so many different rotational tactics you can have without repeating. I think emphasis on certain points of defense come and go, but I don't think there's anything "new" really going on.


    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    Explain. Because there's more to Jim O'Brien's philosophy than preferring 3's to long 2's.
    There's not much more to it than that. Yes, I'm probably oversimplfying it a bit, but not much. Of course Jim understands, and supports, the idea of getting close shots at the rim but I bet when asked 10 times on whether or not he'd rather a player shoot a three or a midrange jumper he'll go with the three 10 out of 10 times.


    EDIT: Or to sum up Antoine Walker when asked why he takes so many 3s (while being coached by JOb) "Because there aren't any fours."
    Last edited by Since86; 10-16-2013 at 12:38 PM.
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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    Isn't this neglecting to mention how much better/smarter defense has gotten in the NBA?
    It is to an extent, but there's no evidence that says the 8-12 foot post game is no longer effective. It's just that nobody commits to using it anymore, except a handful of players, all of which are still highly effective scorers well into their 30's.

    It wasn't about being the team everyone loved, it was about beating the teams everyone else loved.

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  28. #72

    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    This is faaaaaar from definitive. There are a million factors to consider (for example, quality of talent on roster, quality of opponents), but for the curious:

    Top three 3's point shooting teams (in raw attempts, not FG%) / NBA offensive rank (points per 100 possessions):
    1. Houston / 6
    2. Knicks / 3
    3. Lakers / 8

    Top three mid range shooting teams (in raw attempts, not FG%) / NBA offensive rank (points per 100 possessions):
    1. Philly / 26th
    2. Phoenix / 29th
    3. Washington / 30th

    Defenses that allowed the most mid range shot attempts per game / NBA defensive rank (points per 100 possessions):
    1. Indiana / 1st
    2. Spurs / 4th
    3. Washington / 8th

    Defenses that allowed the most three point shot attempts per game / NBA defensive rank (points per 100 possessions):
    1. Denver / 11th
    2. Warriors / 13th
    3. Bobcats / 30th

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  30. #73
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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    I think what's true for star players isn't necessarily true for role players. Of the 5 guys on the floor, ideally you'd probably want 1 post up guy and 1 wing isolation scorer, but of the other 3 guys the best thing they could probably bring to the table is a 3 pt shot. So maybe for the star iso guy (Kobe, etc), playing the midrange game either is more efficient or generates more value for the team (hey, those 3 pt shooters have to play off someone, right?), but for the role players it doesn't seem optimal. They'd just crowd the space for your star iso guy if they're playing in the midrange.

    FWIW, I think Spurs play this to perfection. They have efficient shooters like Green and Neal to play off stars Parker and Duncan. And that makes their offense extremely efficient.

    Put another way, let's say Pacers decided to make Hibbert and George the focal points of the offense. Would we want Hill and Stephenson to develop their midrange game or their long game? Well, "both" would be great, but if they had to pick one probably the long game is more suited for their roles.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    What a baby:

    http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-...ire-his-number

    Dwight Howard spent eight seasons in Orlando, going from franchise hero into one of the most reviled players in the league.

    And for that, he thinks his No. 12 jersey should be in the rafters, evidently.

    Sigh.

    Via the Orlando Sentinel, Howard said he wasn't very happy when his former team allowed Tobias Harris to wear No. 12, which of course was his number in Orlando.

    "I just think that despite whatever happened, there was a lot of things that I did and that we did as a team, and that number was special down there," Howard said. "And I was a little bit upset about that."

    As the paper notes, Howard likely is unaware that Harris wears No. 12 to honor a friend to died of leukemia at 17 years old. Oof.

    Basically, Howard thinks the Magic should retire his number. Again, he played eight seasons for the Magic and while he was unquestionably excellent, taking the team to the Finals one year before eventually turning the entire fanbase on him, I don't think he meets the typical criteria for having your number retired. Normally, the fans like you. That's probably step one. And Howard's not getting past that step.

    So good luck with that, Dwight.
    "Nobody wants to play against Tyler Hansbrough NO BODY!" ~ Frank Vogel

    "And David put his hand in the bag and took out a stone and slung it. And it struck the Philistine on the head and he fell to the ground. Amen. "
    Want your own "Just Say No to Kamen" from @mkroeger pic? http://twitpic.com/a3hmca

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by wintermute View Post
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    Put another way, let's say Pacers decided to make Hibbert and George the focal points of the offense. Would we want Hill and Stephenson to develop their midrange game or their long game? Well, "both" would be great, but if they had to pick one probably the long game is more suited for their roles.
    Would we want DWest to give up his midrange game, and put him out on the 3pt line? That's the real problem here. Different positions/players should have different roles and different places where they score from, instead of turning big men into little guys.

    Players have the ability to become good shooters from both spots, and it should be encouraged, not just telling them to pick one and avoid the other.
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right. ― Ricky Gervais.

    What if someone from a school of business or management school were to ask, How did you do this? How did you get the Pacers turned around? Is there a general approach you've taken that can be summarized?

    Larry Bird: Yeah, patience.

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