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Thread: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    They almost need some type of weighted formula that allows consistent bottom dwellers a bigger chance at getting the top picks.
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right. ― Ricky Gervais.

    What if someone from a school of business or management school were to ask, How did you do this? How did you get the Pacers turned around? Is there a general approach you've taken that can be summarized?

    Larry Bird: Yeah, patience.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    They almost need some type of weighted formula that allows consistent bottom dwellers a bigger chance at getting the top picks.
    Yeah but then that punishes the good franchises who through the normal circumstances that can arise in this business who fall off for a time. Having to wait several years for your cumulative record to be bad enough to get a better pick.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    If they're good franchises, then they won't be punished for long. Consistent bottom dwellers need more help than a team that had an unlucky year, and the draft process should reflect that IMHO.
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right. ― Ricky Gervais.

    What if someone from a school of business or management school were to ask, How did you do this? How did you get the Pacers turned around? Is there a general approach you've taken that can be summarized?

    Larry Bird: Yeah, patience.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    If they're good franchises, then they won't be punished for long. Consistent bottom dwellers need more help than a team that had an unlucky year, and the draft process should reflect that IMHO.
    Problem is consistent bottom dwellers are often consistent by design. Yes they don't use their high picks wisely, but it only emboldens them to tank another season to "get it right."

    Charlotte is a perfect example. Everyone cheered three years ago when they broke up a playoff team because the fans wanted their own superstar and apparently tanking was the only way to get one.

    Well 3 years later, they still don't have one, and guess what? They're still rooting for the bobcats to lose. Oh I hope we're not too much better this year, I'd be disgusted if we lost out on Wiggins or Parker by winning too many games! ugh.

    The loser's mentality has overtaken 1/3 of the NBA to the point where fans are content not showing up for games and waiting year after year because they're convinced next year will be the year they hit the lottery jackpot. Owners are content because they're making money either way and won't be pressured to pay high-priced free agents, and GMs have an excuse to be incompetent for the better part of a decade because losing games was part of the plan, right?
    Last edited by Kstat; 11-01-2013 at 02:05 PM.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    The Pacers' longest playoff drought was five seasons - from 1981-1982 through 1985-1986. Only five team have shorter droughts in their team histories (Orlando and New Orleans at 4, Miami at 3, Los Angeles at 2, and San Antonio at 1).

    Of the active droughts, the Timberwolves have the longest, with nine seasons having passed since their last playoff appearance. In addition to Minnesota, the Raptors (5), Wizards (5), Pistons (4) and Cavaliers (3) are all looking to end several-year droughts.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Some of the SportVU stuff is up. http://stats.nba.com/playerTracking.html

    we're only 2 games in so the numbers mean absolutely nothing yet, but seeing the Pacers have 3 of the top 4 defenders at the rim is a fun visual. and PG's covered the most distance in the league, so that means...something?

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    If they're good franchises, then they won't be punished for long. Consistent bottom dwellers need more help than a team that had an unlucky year, and the draft process should reflect that IMHO.
    But you are assuming these bad franchises will get better with the picks and move up. Thus spurring along the good teams who could use the picks to move up as well. But look at the bobcats, bad every year. Their cumulative suck just keeps increasing. How are the good franchises who could actually use a top pick wisely supposed to move up and get those top picks. Even if the Bobcats get Wiggins, they will probably still find a way to blow.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    I'm thinking that Dirk Nowitzki is going to have an old school Dirk year this season. Last year he missed the first two months of the season because of knee surgery, and it took him a while to look like his old self. But he played good down the stretch last year and looked great in the Mavs' opener the other night. I could see him getting back to the 23 PPG area if he gets enough minutes.

    I've become a huge fan of Dirk over the years. His 2011 playoff run is without question one of the best individual postseason runs in recent years. It was a classic "F it, I'm going to finally get a damn ring" performance. Dude was possessed.

    Definitely one of the all time greats. One of the most unique skill sets ever.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Love Dirk. Hope he retires a Mav. Glad to see him healthy again.

    It wasn't about being the team everyone loved, it was about beating the teams everyone else loved.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    Love Dirk. Hope he retires a Mav. Glad to see him healthy again.

    He will. Cuban will always take care of him and there is no need for Dirk to ever leave. He has his ring and doesn't need to ride anyone's coattails at the end of his career.

    Paul Pierce made an interesting point in an interview with Jackie MacMullan after getting traded to the Nets. He said that you've always heard the Lakers say they want to make Kobe a Laker for life, the Spurs say they want to keep Duncan for life, and Cuban say that he wants Dirk to be a Mav for life. But the Celtics never really acted that way with Pierce. Kobe, Duncan, Dirk, and Pierce are four guys who all came into the league around the same time, and each played their entire career with the same franchise until Pierce was traded last summer. Also, each of them won at least one championship. Yet of the four, Pierce is the only won whose team didn't really care about him retiring with the franchise. That trade might help the Celtics down the road, but you'd never see Mark Cuban trade Dirk for a bunch of scraps and Gerald Wallace's contract.
    Last edited by Sollozzo; 11-01-2013 at 03:12 PM.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    Sorry, that logic is how San Antonio gets Tim Duncan after one bad luck year following eight 50+ win seasons in a row.

    Injuries suck, but it's just one season. Do your scouting, draft a sleeper in the 6-10 range and get back at it next year.

    And please spare me the poor small market revenue excuse. The new CBA virtually guarantees any NBA team to run at a substantial profit so long as they stay away from the LT. I would have bought that argument three years ago; now any owner that claims otherwise is either being cheap, greedy or both.
    As we've seen, "running at a profit" and "having a winning team" are not necessarily comparable. We want teams to be able to make a profit and be competitive, not be a league full of Donald Sterling clones.

    The idea is to not reward a team for having a single bad year. The idea is not to reward a team already winning - give Miami Kyrie Irving and you're talking that no other team wins a championship for a decade. The idea is to take a team and let them get the #1 pick when they need it, not just when they get lucky.

    The problem is that the extreme idea is that it easy to win a championship in the NBA - just do your scouting, pick the right players, make perfect trades, attract FAs for reasonable money, don't let anyone get injured, and here's-your-trophy. Unfortunately, it isn't that easy - contrary to popular belief it isn't obvious when a player isn't going to pan out. It isn't simple to prevent injuries. It isn't just a matter of running a computer program to identify the player who you can trade for. Lots of things combine to determine whether a perfectly good strategy executed by a perfectly competent GM works or is a disaster. Using San Antonio, even with what they have been able to do through international scouting, are they where they are without having gotten Duncan in that second #1 draft pick?

    If you are going to unbind the draft from the idea that the worst teams deserve the chance at the best players, then take chance out of it altogether. Assign each team a #1 draft pick on a round-robin basis. It will take 30 years to get through all of them but you won't have the Knicks getting #1 picks 2 years in a row while the Pistons go 20 years without one.
    BillS

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by BillS View Post
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    As we've seen, "running at a profit" and "having a winning team" are not necessarily comparable. We want teams to be able to make a profit and be competitive, not be a league full of Donald Sterling clones.

    The idea is to not reward a team for having a single bad year. The idea is not to reward a team already winning - give Miami Kyrie Irving and you're talking that no other team wins a championship for a decade. The idea is to take a team and let them get the #1 pick when they need it, not just when they get lucky.

    The problem is that the extreme idea is that it easy to win a championship in the NBA - just do your scouting, pick the right players, make perfect trades, attract FAs for reasonable money, don't let anyone get injured, and here's-your-trophy. Unfortunately, it isn't that easy - contrary to popular belief it isn't obvious when a player isn't going to pan out. It isn't simple to prevent injuries. It isn't just a matter of running a computer program to identify the player who you can trade for. Lots of things combine to determine whether a perfectly good strategy executed by a perfectly competent GM works or is a disaster. Using San Antonio, even with what they have been able to do through international scouting, are they where they are without having gotten Duncan in that second #1 draft pick?

    If you are going to unbind the draft from the idea that the worst teams deserve the chance at the best players, then take chance out of it altogether. Assign each team a #1 draft pick on a round-robin basis. It will take 30 years to get through all of them but you won't have the Knicks getting #1 picks 2 years in a row while the Pistons go 20 years without one.
    The pistons haven't drafted first since 1970. And I still don't have an issue.

    We've actually been screwed by the lottery process during our most recent down period- we finished in the bottom 8 each season and still drafted lower than our draft slot all four times. Not only did we not win a top-3 pick, we got leap-frogged by better teams. Every year.

    Taking all that into account? I still don't care. Being a bad team should suck. No one should ever feel good about a crappy season.
    Last edited by Kstat; 11-01-2013 at 03:03 PM.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by Mad-Mad-Mario View Post
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    But you are assuming these bad franchises will get better with the picks and move up.
    No I'm not. If they continue to be bottom dwellers, then they'd continue getting weighted odds that they'll keep getting higher picks. I'm not assuming anything.
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right. ― Ricky Gervais.

    What if someone from a school of business or management school were to ask, How did you do this? How did you get the Pacers turned around? Is there a general approach you've taken that can be summarized?

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    The pistons haven't drafted first since 1970. And I still don't have an issue.

    We've actually been screwed by the lottery process during our most recent down period- we finished in the bottom 8 each season and still drafted lower than our draft slot all four times. Not only did we not win a top-3 pick, we got leap-frogged by better teams. Every year.

    Taking all that into account? I still don't care. Being a bad team should suck. No one should ever feel good about a crappy season.
    I just don't want to see the rich get richer. A winning team has lots of advantages that come from nothing more than being a winning team. They don't need the #1 draft pick.

    I understand what you are saying about the teams that wouldn't win a championship if they had the #1 draft pick 3 years running. There are some of those, but there are also teams that if given a chance would be better. Some teams get that chance, others don't. The lottery means you can try your best but still get shafted, or just mediocre along and hit the jackpot. Same with an unweighted lottery.

    I still think that a weighted average of 5 seasons combined with a limit on the number of top picks a team can get in a certain span of years is the best compromise. The perennially bad teams that don't improve don't benefit every year by getting a top-4 pick. The teams that are really rebuilding get a shot at a superstar piece. Tanking becomes unfeasible, both at the actual bottom and at the bottom of the playoffs (i.e. no one tanks out of the playoffs to get into the unweighted lottery). You don't make the rich teams even richer because they get lucky in an all-league lottery.
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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    I don't think there should be a distinction between a perennially good team that has key injuries one year and chooses not to find anyone to compensate, or a team that tries to suck every year because they don't know what else to do. I don't think either scenario deserves special considerations.

    in 2010 the five best players were picked 1st, 5th, 7th, 10th and 15th.
    in 2011 they were drafted 1st, 5th, 11th, 15th and 22nd.
    in 2012 they were taken 1st, 3rd, 6th, 7th and 9th.

    By my count, 8 of the top 15 players over the past three years were drafted outside of the top 5. So more than 50% of NBA teams in the top 5 since 2010 whiffed on the best player available.

    Yes, you're almost guaranteed to get a quality player at #1, but if you do your homework, there's always crappy GMs that blow their picks on leaser talents.

    If you're a bad team with a good GM, you won't stay bad forever. Don't care where you pick.
    Last edited by Kstat; 11-01-2013 at 03:32 PM.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    No I'm not. If they continue to be bottom dwellers, then they'd continue getting weighted odds that they'll keep getting higher picks. I'm not assuming anything.
    And thats the problem with your idea. Because other teams with competent management who could actually use those picks well and build a team with them would get screwed over and never able to advance and get the picks they deserve.

    They will just keep losing knowing next year they get yet another shot at the next Lebron or MJ. The only reason we see so much tanking this year is because the class is so deep several teams know they will get a prize. It would be year in and year out with your idea.

    The traditional model where teams eventually do rebuild simply because they don't know where they will land in the draft is much better. I mean the bobcats suck, but its not because they have continually been tanking.
    Last edited by Mad-Mad-Mario; 11-01-2013 at 03:18 PM.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    a bad team with bad management does not need extra help. It needs new management.

    Owners would be more less tolerant of losing games if bad GMs didn't have the lottery to use as a crutch for losing.

    It wasn't about being the team everyone loved, it was about beating the teams everyone else loved.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by Mad-Mad-Mario View Post
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    And thats the problem with your idea. Because other teams with competent management who could actually use those picks well and build a team with them would get screwed over and never able to advance and get the picks they deserve.
    I don't agree with your definition of screwed over nor deserve, so we're starting at a completely different point.

    Teams that are continually bottom dwellers, aren't tankers. If you're that bad year in and year out, you're simply that bad. What they're management does with the picks they get, is a different topic of conversation. What they do with the pick, is really irrelevant.


    If the formula is weighted by several years worth of records, then you wouldn't have to worry about tanking because one season with a bad record wouldn't get you a top pick. So there would be no reason to not try in order to get a better pick, because you have no shot at actually getting it. Having the opportunity to get a high pick simply by tanking, gives tanking credibility. If you take away the possibility, you take away the credibility.

    Is the idea without faults? No, no system is. But going off of a weighted average ensures that the worst teams get the best picks, giving them the best opportunity to get better, which is what I think the point of the draft is.
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right. ― Ricky Gervais.

    What if someone from a school of business or management school were to ask, How did you do this? How did you get the Pacers turned around? Is there a general approach you've taken that can be summarized?

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    I disagree. Teams that are terrible never make any attempt to get better via trade or FA unless they have a young phenom they need to keep happy, which means their tanking plan succeeded.

    Otherwise, the GM can keep on whispering to the owner year after year about this next college freshman that's going to dominate the NBA for the next 10 years, and the owner of course won't mind going another year without making any expensive acquisitions.

    As long as the owner is on board with the GM's tanking agenda, he can't lose his job, no matter how many games his teams lose. What motivation does he have to put his neck on the line by actually trying to construct a quality team? That creates actual expectations, which could get him actually fired if he fails.
    Last edited by Kstat; 11-01-2013 at 03:50 PM.

    It wasn't about being the team everyone loved, it was about beating the teams everyone else loved.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    I disagree. Teams that are terrible never make any attempt to get better via trade or FA unless they have a young phenom they need to keep happy, which means their tanking plan succeeded.
    I don't consider that tanking.

    Tanking is purposefully not playing up to the standard that you're capable of, rather than not attempting to make moves and get better. The draft can't fix management issues, so I'm not really worried about what trades they did or didn't make or whether or not they picked the right guy. The NBA cannot control that type of stuff, nor should they IMHO.

    Any system that is put in place is going to have it's downfalls, and it will be able to be gamed unless it's based 100% on chance and I just don't like that idea at all. The best teams should not have an equal chance to get top picks than the worst teams IMHO.
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right. ― Ricky Gervais.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    If you choose not to improve your roster with the resources at your disposal, that is tanking by definition. The spurs tanked in 2007 with a 60-win roster, because when Robinson went down they didn't even attempt to stay competitive.

    What do you think tanking is? The players on the floor are always going to play hard to dance their careers. They don't care about future draft picks.

    If you have a ton of cap room and tradable assets and do nothing with them even though you clearly could get better, that's what tanking teams do.
    Last edited by Kstat; 11-01-2013 at 04:02 PM.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Three nationally-televised Kobe-less Lakers games in the first week of the season. Great work, NBA!

    I know why they don't do it, but it'd be better from this fan's perspective if they had a greater variety of teams on national television in the beginning of the season. Just show the playoff teams and expected contenders in the last three months.
    Last edited by LoneGranger33; 11-01-2013 at 04:08 PM.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    The lakers are still the lakers. They'll be a draw until they're not competitive anymore, and that hasn't happened yet.

    It wasn't about being the team everyone loved, it was about beating the teams everyone else loved.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by Since86 View Post
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    I don't agree with your definition of screwed over nor deserve, so we're starting at a completely different point.

    Teams that are continually bottom dwellers, aren't tankers. If you're that bad year in and year out, you're simply that bad. What they're management does with the picks they get, is a different topic of conversation. What they do with the pick, is really irrelevant.


    If the formula is weighted by several years worth of records, then you wouldn't have to worry about tanking because one season with a bad record wouldn't get you a top pick. So there would be no reason to not try in order to get a better pick, because you have no shot at actually getting it. Having the opportunity to get a high pick simply by tanking, gives tanking credibility. If you take away the possibility, you take away the credibility.

    Is the idea without faults? No, no system is. But going off of a weighted average ensures that the worst teams get the best picks, giving them the best opportunity to get better, which is what I think the point of the draft is.
    Under your system of using several years worth of records would punish teams who are great and then try to rebuild and reload. Look at the Bulls in 99 for example, perennial contenders. Had just three peated. Third worst record in the league the next year, why should their previous great season preclude them from getting a high draft pick, they clearly needed one.

    This might be an extreme example. But we should never gauge a teams need of a high draft pick on how they were 2 or 3 years before.

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    Default Re: The 10th NBA Random Thoughts thread 2013-2014: Coveting Miami's Crown

    Quote Originally Posted by Kstat View Post
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    What do you think tanking is?
    I just said it.

    Tanking is purposefully not playing up to the standard that you're capable of, rather than not attempting to make moves and get better
    I don't think the Pacers tanked when they were bad, and didn't make and trades, so I'm not going to run with that definition.
    Just because you're offended, doesn't mean you're right. ― Ricky Gervais.

    What if someone from a school of business or management school were to ask, How did you do this? How did you get the Pacers turned around? Is there a general approach you've taken that can be summarized?

    Larry Bird: Yeah, patience.

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