Page 2 of 7 FirstFirst 123456 ... LastLast
Results 26 to 50 of 175

Thread: Andrew Luck!!!!

  1. #26
    DIET COKE! Trader Joe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Troll Hunting
    Age
    26
    Posts
    30,658

    Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: Andrew Luck!!!!

    Luck has to be the only QB I've ever seen doubted because he wins close games. It's seriously bizarro world. If an "experienced" QB had lead that many close wins from their team we would be hearing about how clutch he is and how the rest of his team needs to step it up. But because Luck is a young player, it is called a lucky win or something that isn't repeatable. I don't understand that line of thinking at all. Peyton Manning went 3-13 his rookie season with a roster that honestly didn't look a whole lot different than the one Luck had last year in terms of talent. And a big reason for Peyton's poop fest of a record was the fact that for his first season Peyton blew chunks in close games and often was the one making mistakes that blew games open. Luck really only had one game like that last year IMO and that was week 1 against the Bears

    “WE NEVER SURRENDER, WE NEVER GIVE UP, WE KEEP ATTACKING”- Frank Vogel
    momentarygodsblog.com https://twitter.com/momentarygods

  2. The Following User Says Thank You to Trader Joe For This Useful Post:


  3. #27
    DIET COKE! Trader Joe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Troll Hunting
    Age
    26
    Posts
    30,658

    Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: Andrew Luck!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Pacergeek View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    T Y. I would also expect huge numbers from him. 90 catches. 1100 yds. 10 TDs
    I like T.Y. but I don't see this. Reggie is going to still get his huge numbers and I'm actually pretty impressed by DHB and the way Pep plans to use him. I think DHB is going to get 5-6 catches a game and Pep is going to find a way to make it happen even if it is just quick hitting screens. DHB is the perfect WR body for that sort of use. Plus D. Allen is going to get his catches too.

    I think Hilton will catch around 50 balls and get 800-900 yards. Still a fantastic season by any measure, but he's not number 1 receiver material right now.

    “WE NEVER SURRENDER, WE NEVER GIVE UP, WE KEEP ATTACKING”- Frank Vogel
    momentarygodsblog.com https://twitter.com/momentarygods

  4. #28
    DIET COKE! Trader Joe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Troll Hunting
    Age
    26
    Posts
    30,658

    Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: Andrew Luck!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Basketball Fan View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    We'll find out won't we haven't seen Pagano a full season as a coach who knows how that will turn out. People seem to forget a lot of our wins were close calls more than anything. I could see the Colts go 9-7 this season maybe 8-8. This team still has a lot of work before I consider them contenders. But health plays a role I mean there are QB who had potential and got riddled by injuries(Chad Pennington for one) there are no guarantees in life let alone sports.
    Andrew Luck's body type makes Pennington look like a ballerina. Honestly, we are just lucky in this city in sports right now. For the next decade we're probably going to get to watch two of the biggest physical freaks in the NBA and NFL play on a weekly basis. Luck is a lineback, hell really a speed rushing defensive end in today's NFL who can play quarterback. And Paul George is a 6'10" shooting guard who can guard 4 positions on the floor. What an awesome time to live in Indy and be watching these guys grow up. I would love to one day have a commercial where PG and Luck were both in it. I was hoping FIFA might do this when Luck signed on with EA because PG loves FIFA too. Make it happen yo!
    Last edited by Trader Joe; 08-22-2013 at 11:28 AM.

    “WE NEVER SURRENDER, WE NEVER GIVE UP, WE KEEP ATTACKING”- Frank Vogel
    momentarygodsblog.com https://twitter.com/momentarygods

  5. #29
    Member Sollozzo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Indianapolis, IN
    Posts
    16,491

    Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: Andrew Luck!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Trader Joe View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Luck has to be the only QB I've ever seen doubted because he wins close games. It's seriously bizarro world. If an "experienced" QB had lead that many close wins from their team we would be hearing about how clutch he is and how the rest of his team needs to step it up. But because Luck is a young player, it is called a lucky win or something that isn't repeatable. I don't understand that line of thinking at all. Peyton Manning went 3-13 his rookie season with a roster that honestly didn't look a whole lot different than the one Luck had last year in terms of talent. And a big reason for Peyton's poop fest of a record was the fact that for his first season Peyton blew chunks in close games and often was the one making mistakes that blew games open. Luck really only had one game like that last year IMO and that was week 1 against the Bears
    Yeah, we won a ton of close games in 2008 and 2009. Manning won back to back MVP's those seasons and was pimped as the GOAT. But when Luck wins close games last year, it's because the team is shaky and on the verge of having a crappy followup season.

  6. #30
    Pacer Pride, Colts Strong Kid Minneapolis's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Posts
    4,378

    Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: Andrew Luck!!!!

    That's been part of the baffle for me. Luck did what he did last year, which is remarkable for a veteran to pull off. He was a *rookie*. Rookies aren't supposed to do that. So everyone puts it down as "beginners luck". Here's the thing --- he was considered the most pro-ready prospect to come out in decades, and arguably the best quarterback prospect to come out in 30 years. And then he goes out and basically backs it up --- and not only does everyone doubt him... they hoist RG3 up as the flavor of the year. People really don't know exactly what Luck pulled off last year. Why? Ignorance? They just don't know? Don't want to believe it? I don't know. I'm looking right at it. Been saying it since he was in college, before we drafted, after spending weeks watching tape on him, and the more I watched, the more convinced I became --- he's the best player I've ever seen come out of college. I don't mean that as he was an all-time great college player, a la Tyler Hansbrough, who's fantastic college career looked to translate to a middle-of-the-road pro career. I mean it as, Luck has a LeBron James-type collection of traits, a truly special physical and mental make-up. The stuff he did last year was not a surprise to me --- he did it in college. Everything he did in college projected to the pros, but unlike Hansbrough, he doesn't lack in physical or mental gifts. It wasn't a matter of over-achieving in Luck's case. He wasn't doing what he was doing by sheer heart and hustle. He has that hustle and heart, but he also has the other stuff. And then he has that on-field "it" factor; the ability to rise to a level of play that those around him cannot reach at critical moments. A lot of these guys who had "sophomore slumps" missed something critical in their make-up. A lot of times it's simply mental. Cam Newton, for all his physical talents, isn't the sharpest tool in the shed. I stated before last season when everyone was pushing him up into the greatest of all time that I expected NFL defenses to catch on to him. It won't be like his rookie year forever, when most people just didn't have a book on him yet. The book is out now. A lot of those guys have some flaw or flaws that you can just see coming. They don't have the off-field commitment... they don't have the body.... they don't have the mental make-up... they don't have the mental toughness to keep it up..... they don't have the ability to make in-game or game-to-game adjustments.... they are immature... they make bad off-field decisions.... they have bad habits... imperfect mechanics --- any number of things. Luck doesn't lack in any of those departments. That's what made me make those claims last off-season. He is humble. He doesn't party. He's not an idiot. He's a physical freak, both in strength, flexibility, fluid-motion, fast-twitch. His mechanics are flawless. He's tough as ****. He expects perfection. He's not a dickhead to his teammates. He has the mental make-up of Peyton Manning, in his ability to store and recall. His ability to make adjustments on the fly... his ability to deliver from the pocket and on the run... he can run effectively without being stupid like RG3.... he's a leader.... he can make every throw known to man-kind.. he elevates his game in crunch-time... he can already read defenses and is already running a no-huddle, which is not only very rare for a rookie to do, but he was doing this in college, which is even more rare. He has it "upstairs". None of this is exaggeration, it is just straight observation. There are very few players who can check all of those things off. RG3 can't.... Wilson can't.... Kaepernick can't. They are all very good, but they all have their weaknesses in some form or fashion. And all three of them get held up above Luck by a large portion of the fanbase.
    Last edited by Kid Minneapolis; 08-22-2013 at 12:48 PM.
    There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

  7. #31
    Member Sollozzo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Indianapolis, IN
    Posts
    16,491

    Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: Andrew Luck!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Kid Minneapolis View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    That's been part of the baffle for me. Luck did what he did last year, which is remarkable for a veteran to pull off. He was a *rookie*. Rookies aren't supposed to do that. So everyone puts it down as "beginners luck". Here's the thing --- he was considered the most pro-ready prospect to come out in decades, and arguably the best quarterback prospect to come out in 30 years. And then he goes out and basically backs it up --- and not only does everyone doubt him... they hoist RG3 up as the flavor of the year. People really don't know exactly what Luck pulled off last year. Why? Ignorance? They just don't know? Don't want to believe it? I don't know. I'm looking right at it. Been saying it since he was in college, before we drafted, after spending weeks watching tape on him, and the more I watched, the more convinced I became --- he's the best player I've ever seen come out of college. I don't mean that as he was an all-time great college player, a la Tyler Hansbrough, who's fantastic college career looked to translate to a middle-of-the-road pro career. I mean it as, Luck has a LeBron James-type collection of traits, a truly special physical and mental make-up. The stuff he did last year was not a surprise to me --- he did it in college. Everything he did in college projected to the pros, but unlike Hansbrough, he doesn't lack in physical or mental gifts. It wasn't a matter of over-achieving in Luck's case. He wasn't doing what he was doing by sheer heart and hustle. He has that hustle and heart, but he also has the other stuff. And then he has that on-field "it" factor; the ability to rise to a level of play that those around him cannot reach at critical moments. A lot of these guys who had "sophomore slumps" missed something critical in their make-up. A lot of times it's simply mental. Cam Newton, for all his physical talents, isn't the sharpest tool in the shed. I stated before last season when everyone was pushing him up into the greatest of all time that I expected NFL defenses to catch on to him. It won't be like his rookie year forever, when most people just didn't have a book on him yet. The book is out now. A lot of those guys have some flaw or flaws that you can just see coming. They don't have the off-field commitment... they don't have the body.... they don't have the mental make-up... they don't have the mental toughness to keep it up..... they don't have the ability to make in-game or game-to-game adjustments.... they are immature... they make bad off-field decisions.... they have bad habits... imperfect mechanics --- any number of things. Luck doesn't lack in any of those departments. That's what made me make those claims last off-season. He is humble. He doesn't party. He's not an idiot. He's a physical freak, both in strength, flexibility, fluid-motion, fast-twitch. His mechanics are flawless. He's tough as ****. He expects perfection. He's not a dickhead to his teammates. He has the mental make-up of Peyton Manning, in his ability to store and recall. His ability to make adjustments on the fly... his ability to deliver from the pocket and on the run... he can run effectively without being stupid like RG3.... he's a leader.... he can make every throw known to man-kind.. he elevates his game in crunch-time... he can already read defenses and is already running a no-huddle, which is not only very rare for a rookie to do, but he was doing this in college, which is even more rare. He has it "upstairs". None of this is exaggeration, it is just straight observation. There are very few athletes who can check all of those things off. RG3 can't.... Wilson can't.... Kaepernick can't. They are all very good, but they all have their weaknesses in some form or fashion. And all three of them get held up above Luck by a large portion of the fanbase.


    For people like Skip Bayless and Olbutthole, there are two main reasons that they are biased against Luck:

    1) They think the Colts made a mistake by releasing Manning and drafting Luck. The Colts 11-5 record in Luck's rookie season obviously puts a big dent in that argument.

    2) They love RG3 and don't want Luck to look better than him. In fairness, this line of thinking goes both ways as Colt fans are definitely critical of RG3.


    I agree with you. The 11-5 thing is shaken off as "beginner's Luck", but you would have been laughed out of a room if you predicted an 11-5 record 12 months ago.

  8. #32
    Pacer Pride, Colts Strong Kid Minneapolis's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Posts
    4,378

    Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: Andrew Luck!!!!

    Yea, I never predicted 11-5 last year, I think I predicted 6-7. But even so, that was mostly because of my lack of faith in the team around Luck, and I figured Luck would have a Peyton-like rookie curve. He didn't. He ended up exceeding my expectations in that department. But as the season progressed and I look back on last year's season, it became apparent to me that Luck was a HUGE reason why they were exceeding everyone's expectations, even as he himself was downplaying it every week, with self-deprecating comments like he was "just a dumb rookie" and "had a lot to learn" and never taking credit for some incredible throw he made, but rather putting emphasis on the catch that was made, or when he escaped a collapsing pocket and made a crazy throw, he would still credit his o-line for giving him time. He never took credit for those late-game heroics, but who else was at the heart of all those performances? I think he surprised his teammates... and when they started to gain that confidence in this young kid, it caught fire. And that absolutely cannot be understated. A player's ability to encourage and elevate the play of those around him is just massive. I won't deny that there were *some* lucky things last year, but for the most part, I never got the impression that Indy was out there catching all kinds of breaks and calls their way. They had their ups.... they had their downs... but their downs never outweighed their ups. Luck made what some called "ill-advised" throws. They are ill-advised because 99.5% of QBs can't make that throw with any sort of consistency. Luck can and did. Sometimes his throw placement might look "off", but he put it where the receiver needed to have it, and sometimes that might not be where we expect it. I'm telling ya, last year he had more than his fair share of tipped balls and receivers running the wrong routes or making the wrong tree reads, and he never blamed them, said it was on him. If you were to tell me that where a play broke down, it was because someone missed their read.... I would place money on the fact that it was rarely Luck making the incorrect read. There were even quotes last year stating that Luck had already committed and mastered the playbook, and they couldn't run most of the plays because the rest of the offense hadn't got it down yet. Big "tell" right there. His teammates were trying hard, but screwin' it up at times. He never got mad about it.
    Last edited by Kid Minneapolis; 08-22-2013 at 01:00 PM.
    There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

  9. #33
    future dragon trainer Heisenberg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Posts
    12,082

    Sports Logo

    Default Re: Andrew Luck!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by vapacersfan View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    I also got Hilton. Is it T Y or TY?

    I got Rodgers early, but we have two QB slots (one QB and one foe general offense) so I couldnt pass luck up. Ironially enough the guy after me was all pissed (all of us were at a house for a draft party, made for a kick *** time).

    Sorry for the thread derail
    Technically it should probably be T Y. His dad's name's Tyrone so people called him Little Tee Why growing up and the T Y stuck. I don't know where the occasional periods come from, the T and Y aren't abbreviations.

  10. #34

    Default Re: Andrew Luck!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Yeah, we won a ton of close games in 2008 and 2009. Manning won back to back MVP's those seasons and was pimped as the GOAT. But when Luck wins close games last year, it's because the team is shaky and on the verge of having a crappy followup season.
    There are two main reasons for this.

    1) Manning is the best player in NFL history at producing more wins than the points scored/points allowed would indicate (basically, that he's a master at close games). At his current pace, Luck would catch him for his career in just two more seasons. Even if we know for sure that Luck is a Manning/Brady close game type rather than a Rodgers/Unitas (both of whom are negative for their career), that's simply an unsustainable rate. We don't know how good Luck is in close games yet, but it's almost impossible that he's this good.

    2) There is much more mainstream sports coverage based on analytics than there was five years ago. There might have been people questioning Manning's history in close games over those years, but people didn't hear them as much because they weren't as visible. Now, the use of this has become much more widespread. And the 2012 Colts were a pretty eye popping team statistically. Nobody has ever really seen anything much like them.

    Now what I do believe the analysts are missing is that the Colts true talent level should improve so much. So while I don't believe the Colts are likely to have anywhere near the same record in close games, I think their point differential will be quite a bit better. They are likely to be an exception to the rule as far as regression not because they have clutch figured out, but because they had 40 million in cap space and a bunch of rookies going to get better in their 2nd year, including a QB who was good last year and is oozing with potential to make the leap.

  11. #35
    Member Sollozzo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Indianapolis, IN
    Posts
    16,491

    Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: Andrew Luck!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Cubs231721 View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    There are two main reasons for this.

    1) Manning is the best player in NFL history at producing more wins than the points scored/points allowed would indicate (basically, that he's a master at close games). At his current pace, Luck would catch him for his career in just two more seasons. Even if we know for sure that Luck is a Manning/Brady close game type rather than a Rodgers/Unitas (both of whom are negative for their career), that's simply an unsustainable rate. We don't know how good Luck is in close games yet, but it's almost impossible that he's this good.

    2) There is much more mainstream sports coverage based on analytics than there was five years ago. There might have been people questioning Manning's history in close games over those years, but people didn't hear them as much because they weren't as visible. Now, the use of this has become much more widespread. And the 2012 Colts were a pretty eye popping team statistically. Nobody has ever really seen anything much like them.

    Now what I do believe the analysts are missing is that the Colts true talent level should improve so much. So while I don't believe the Colts are likely to have anywhere near the same record in close games, I think their point differential will be quite a bit better. They are likely to be an exception to the rule as far as regression not because they have clutch figured out, but because they had 40 million in cap space and a bunch of rookies going to get better in their 2nd year, including a QB who was good last year and is oozing with potential to make the leap.

    I don't put much stock in the point differential because it is skewed heavily by three losses: @ Chicago, @ NYJ, and @ NE. We didn't blow any teams out by margins large enough to balance out those three games.

    Week 1 @ Chicago, L 41-21. Not surprising that we were blown out here. A rookie quarterback starting his career in a hostile road environment against a very solid defense. Rookie head coach and tons of new players too. This loss was pretty much the most predictable thing ever.

    Week 6 @ NYJ, L 35-9. This game came just a week after the emotional Green Bay win in which we had just found out that our coach had cancer. Nothing excuses the poor play, but it's not surprising that we crashed on the road after the roller coaster of emotions that we had experienced the prior week. Plus, playing the Jets in the Meadowlands is an extremely hostile environment. At 2-3, the Jets were desperately trying to save their season at that point.

    Week 11 @ NE, L 59-24. What can you say? There's a reason that Brady and the Hoodie have been at the top for so long. They crap on a lot of teams, particularly in Foxboro. There's a reason that it took Manning so long to finally win there. It's just a brutal place to play.

    In these three games, we were outscored by a margin of 135-54. For the other 13 games of the season, we actually outscored our opponents by a 303-252 margin. I'm going to put far more weight on 13 games than I am 3 blowout losses which can be easily explained - one of them was the first game of the season, and another was on the road against a quarterback/head coaching tandem that has made five Super Bowls. Out of the three blowouts, the Jets one was the only one that could be called "disappointing", but it was hardly surprising considering the intense GB game in the prior week that centered around Pagano's illness.
    Last edited by Sollozzo; 08-22-2013 at 02:06 PM.

  12. The Following User Says Thank You to Sollozzo For This Useful Post:


  13. #36
    Pacer Pride, Colts Strong Kid Minneapolis's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Posts
    4,378

    Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: Andrew Luck!!!!

    Exactly, Sollozo.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cubs231721 View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    We don't know how good Luck is in close games yet, but it's almost impossible that he's this good.
    By saying "we don't know", I take it to mean that the sample size isn't big enough? Because in the ten 1-score games last year (only 1 of which we lost!), Luck demonstrated with incredible consistency how good he was in close games. It's not a large sample size, but that sample size has a high occurrence rate.... 10 games out of 16 is quite a ratio. There were very few times last year, in our many close games, in clutch situations, where I thought to myself "Wow, Luck is really dropping the ball here." He was fantastic, almost exclusively, with the game on the line.
    Last edited by Kid Minneapolis; 08-22-2013 at 02:18 PM.
    There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

  14. The Following User Says Thank You to Kid Minneapolis For This Useful Post:


  15. #37
    DIET COKE! Trader Joe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Troll Hunting
    Age
    26
    Posts
    30,658

    Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: Andrew Luck!!!!

    This seems like one of those times a where tired cliche is actually incredibly appropriate....but a lot of times you make your own luck. (Pun intended/not intended)

    “WE NEVER SURRENDER, WE NEVER GIVE UP, WE KEEP ATTACKING”- Frank Vogel
    momentarygodsblog.com https://twitter.com/momentarygods

  16. #38

    Default Re: Andrew Luck!!!!

    Even if you can just take the blowouts out, that doesn't really help all that much. The Colts went 11-2 in the other 13 games. Putting that 303-252 scoring margin in results in a Pythagorean record of 7.9 wins with 4.1 losses for those 13 games. So dismissing the blowouts would say that the Colts were 3.1 wins off of their expected win total over 13 games rather than 3.8 over 16 games. An improvement, but still way off statistically. That would still be the biggest difference in football last year, with the Lions (at 2.5 wins to the downside) the only other team even above two wins different.

  17. #39
    Pacer Pride, Colts Strong Kid Minneapolis's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Posts
    4,378

    Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: Andrew Luck!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Cubs231721 View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Even if you can just take the blowouts out, that doesn't really help all that much. The Colts went 11-2 in the other 13 games. Putting that 303-252 scoring margin in results in a Pythagorean record of 7.9 wins with 4.1 losses for those 13 games. So dismissing the blowouts would say that the Colts were 3.1 wins off of their expected win total over 13 games rather than 3.8 over 16 games. An improvement, but still way off statistically. That would still be the biggest difference in football last year, with the Lions (at 2.5 wins to the downside) the only other team even above two wins different.
    7.9 + 4.1 = 12. Not 13. Might wanna re-run the numbers. But again, stats are stats, they really don't tell us ****. Just because we scored so many points and allowed so many points can't be a straight translation into wins and losses because it completely disregards context.... like who we played, where we played, who was injured, lunar gravitational pull, the circumference of the earth, which team had Andrew Luck, etc...
    Last edited by Kid Minneapolis; 08-22-2013 at 02:54 PM.
    There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

  18. #40

    Default Re: Andrew Luck!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Kid Minneapolis View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Truly bad teams usually end up on the wrong side of close games. You haven't watched Luck at all if Pennington and Newton are what come to mind.

    Sent from my KFJWI using Tapatalk 2

    And you failed to see my point. There are no guarantees as to how Andrew Luck's career will turn out yes he was great his rookie year but how do you know he won't have an injury that will end up hindering the rest of his career(Chad Pennington) or not be nearly as spectacular hype wise(Cam Newton). I personally find Luck more impressive than either of them but the reason we're still talking about Peyton Manning now (the only QB left from the 90s) is because he managed to last this long. Hopefully Andrew Luck will be the same in that regard. but again there are no guarantees.

  19. #41
    Member Sollozzo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Indianapolis, IN
    Posts
    16,491

    Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: Andrew Luck!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Cubs231721 View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Even if you can just take the blowouts out, that doesn't really help all that much. The Colts went 11-2 in the other 13 games. Putting that 303-252 scoring margin in results in a Pythagorean record of 7.9 wins with 4.1 losses for those 13 games. So dismissing the blowouts would say that the Colts were 3.1 wins off of their expected win total over 13 games rather than 3.8 over 16 games. An improvement, but still way off statistically. That would still be the biggest difference in football last year, with the Lions (at 2.5 wins to the downside) the only other team even above two wins different.

    Something tells me that a Pythagorean record wouldn't have predicted two Super Bowl wins for the Giants either.....

    There's a reason that the games are played.

  20. The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to Sollozzo For This Useful Post:


  21. #42
    Pacer Pride, Colts Strong Kid Minneapolis's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Posts
    4,378

    Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: Andrew Luck!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Basketball Fan View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    And you failed to see my point. There are no guarantees as to how Andrew Luck's career will turn out yes he was great his rookie year but how do you know he won't have an injury that will end up hindering the rest of his career(Chad Pennington) or not be nearly as spectacular hype wise(Cam Newton). I personally find Luck more impressive than either of them but the reason we're still talking about Peyton Manning now (the only QB left from the 90s) is because he managed to last this long. Hopefully Andrew Luck will be the same in that regard. but again there are no guarantees.
    Of course there's no guarantees, lol... but you can look at factors. It's not a complete crap-shoot, if you know what to look for. For instance, I looked at Newton during his rookie year, and I could tell that he had a few shortcomings amongst his many strengths. I questioned his ability in the mental part of the game, his ability to make reads, check-down, react to adjustments, make complicated throws, and I also question his performance in the clutch. That was watching him on the field... then I watched some of his interviews and further cemented my opinion that there's not a ton goin' on "upstairs" and that was a red flag. Voila --- that's pretty much exactly what we saw unfold in season 2. Defenses adjusted to him.
    Last edited by Kid Minneapolis; 08-22-2013 at 03:04 PM.
    There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

  22. #43

    Default Re: Andrew Luck!!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Kid Minneapolis View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    7.9 + 4.1 = 12. Not 13. Might wanna re-run the numbers. But again, stats are stats, they really don't tell us ****. Just because we scored so many points and allowed so many points can't be a straight translation into wins and losses because it completely disregards context.... like who we played, where we played, who was injured, lunar gravitational pull, the circumference of the earth, which team had Andrew Luck, etc...
    My mistake. The 4.1 was simply a typo. It should have been 5.1. It doesn't change the win total difference stated above. The reason they came up with this statistic in the first place is that they found that you are more likely to be right about a team's future win total by using point differential than if you use the prior year's record.

    As for the rest of the post,

    Of course there's no guarantees, lol... but you can look at factors. It's not a complete crap-shoot, if you know what to look for.
    You said it about something else, but this is exactly what I would say about stats. The reason many people are using this stat is because they've found it's highly predictive, just as scouting certain characteristics of a QB has been found to be predictive of finding a great one. There is no guarantee, but it's on average what happens. As Sollozzo says, the reason they play the games is that sometimes the most likely thing doesn't happen, and I would completely agree with that. In fact, I think that's where it becomes the most fun.

  23. #44

    Default Re: Andrew Luck!!!!

    All I know is I'm glad we have Andrew Luck and not the other QBs drafted that year. I think we absolutely stole this and sooner rather than later we're going to see some great stuff in the playoffs.
    Don't ask Marvin Harrison what he did during the bye week. "Batman never told where the Bat Cave is," he explained.

  24. #45
    THE WITCH IS DEAD!!! Coopdog23's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Da Bank
    Posts
    2,889

    Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: Andrew Luck!!!!

    Leading us to SB XVLIII
    "We want Miami"

  25. #46
    Pacer Pride, Colts Strong Kid Minneapolis's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Posts
    4,378

    Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: Andrew Luck!!!!

    http://ftw.usatoday.com/2013/08/stud...atriots/?sid=2 Two students in Emory University’s Sports Marketing Analytics program in Atlanta completed a study to find the most “loyal and supportive” NFL fanbases. Instead of simply finding the team with the most tickets sold, the students factored in team win/loss record, area population, median income, etc. to see which teams’ fans show up no matter what.
    This gave them a “Fan Equity” ranking to show which fanbases are the most committed to their teams.
    The results were fairly predictable at the top, and then got very surprising.
    1. Dallas Cowboys
    2. New England Patriots
    3. New York Jets
    4. New Orleans Saints
    5. New York Giants
    6. Indianapolis Colts
    There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

  26. #47
    Pacer Pride, Colts Strong Kid Minneapolis's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Posts
    4,378

    Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: Andrew Luck!!!!

    Ugh... the RG3-lash just continues to worsen. Seems like we're getting some headline about him once or twice a day. Daily injury updates, wedding announcements, silly media spars with his coach, then he wears a shirt he knows he shouldn't wear, and now cracking jokes about it at awards ceremonies. This guy is starting to become a primadonna. It might be a stupid rule, but it's a rule and it's not hard to follow. The attention-seeking is starting to get very old.
    There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

  27. The Following User Says Thank You to Kid Minneapolis For This Useful Post:


  28. #48
    Formerly PacerFanInAZ Cactus Jax's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Tucson AZ
    Age
    30
    Posts
    4,060
    Mood

    Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: Andrew Luck!!!!

    Yeah, I don't hear a thing about Luck out here. It's all RGIII, all the time, he's become the Dwight Howard of football, all we need are trade requests, and getting his coach fired (which I think is coming in the next year or two).
    "It's just unfortunate that we've been penalized so much this year and nothing has happened to the Pistons, the Palace or the city of Detroit," he said. "It's almost like it's always our fault. The league knows it. They should be ashamed of themselves to let the security be as lax as it is around here."

    ----------------- Reggie Miller

  29. The Following User Says Thank You to Cactus Jax For This Useful Post:


  30. #49
    Member Sollozzo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    Indianapolis, IN
    Posts
    16,491

    Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: Andrew Luck!!!!

    I still think that the Giants lost that division more than the Redskins won it. The Giants were a 6-2 defending Super Bowl champion, but finished a pathetic 9-7, allowing 10-6 Washington to win the division. Full credit to Washington winning more games than anyone else, but they were aided immensely by the Giants' collapse.

    I know Eli has the two stellar Super Bowls, but the above is why he cannot be in the Brady/Peyton/Rodgers class. You don't see Brady or Peyton blowing a 6-2 season by finishing 3-5 down the stretch. Playoffs mean a lot, but you still have to play good ball in the regular season to get to the playoffs, and Eli has just never been consistently elite throughout the regular season. Thing is, I wouldn't be surprised if he keeps that trend for his entire career, while somehow winning another championship in the process.
    Last edited by Sollozzo; 08-23-2013 at 05:49 PM.

  31. #50
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Age
    28
    Posts
    5,918

    Sports Logo Sports Logo Sports Logo

    Default Re: Andrew Luck!!!!

    Giants chocked. We didnt. End of story.

    The. Again saying the Guants choked is like saying fish swim and dogs bark.


    No way is RG3 any where near Dwight, but im tired of all the media attention. Then again, he IS our team and he alone took us from a joke to a respectable team.


    No way does RG3 get Shanny fired. Thats laughable.


    Im ready for football.


    Also. **** Dallas. And the Giants suck. Hope they choke again and "give" us the division (not directed at you Sollizzo) again

Similar Threads

  1. Andrew Luck on the cover of SI
    By Basketball Fan in forum Indianapolis Colts
    Replies: 7
    Last Post: 11-28-2012, 10:15 AM
  2. Andrew Luck mad Ol'blue look like an idiot
    By AugustinGrangerHill in forum Indianapolis Colts
    Replies: 10
    Last Post: 10-07-2012, 08:05 PM
  3. Andrew Luck's arm strength??
    By RWB in forum Indianapolis Colts
    Replies: 25
    Last Post: 03-26-2012, 05:13 PM
  4. Poor Andrew Luck???
    By RWB in forum Indianapolis Colts
    Replies: 21
    Last Post: 03-08-2012, 12:46 PM
  5. Andrew Luck Thread
    By Foul on Smits in forum Indianapolis Colts
    Replies: 119
    Last Post: 11-21-2011, 10:07 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •