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Thread: An interesting view on our team's 12-13 season by RAPM

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    All Hail CJ Watson! Nuntius's Avatar
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    Default An interesting view on our team's 12-13 season by RAPM

    So, I stumbled upon an interesting page and I thought that it would be nice to share it with you.

    Here's how each one of our players measured in this year's RAPM metric:

    http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/teams/IND.html

    Unfortunately, I don't know how to post tables.

    In any case, here are some interesting take aways from this table:

    1) Roy Hibbert and Paul George were beasts defensively. Of course, we all knew that. Hibbert rated at +4.33 while PG measured at +3.06. Our 3rd best defender was David West at +2.30 (Seth and Peck will be happy) and Mahinmi was our 4th best at +2.04. George Hill was only at +0.01 (barely positive) while Lance Stephenson was at -0.43. Tyler was decent at +0.16 while DJ Augustin was at -3.82 so he was the obvious defensive liability.

    2) George Hill was rated our best offensive player. He posted a +2.31 rating which was by far the best in our RAPM (mattie will be happy). David West was our 2nd best offensive player at +1.06 which indicates that West was actually one of our best players since he contributed equally on both ends of the floor. Our 3rd best offensive player was Hibbert at +0.27 while our 4th best was DJ Augustin at +0.14. Paul George rated at -0.19 actually while Lance was at -0.46 (barely negative in both ends according to this measure). Tyler was at -0.82. Our worst offensive player was Ian Mahinmi at -4.12 (so, all his defensive job was erased due to him being a liability offensively) followed by Sam Young at -3.92.

    3) Granger actually had a +1.00 rating offensively in those 73 minutes that he played and he was barely a negative defensively (-0.02). Of course, the sample size is very small.

    4) Pendy was ok. Rated at -0.70 offensively and -0.89 defensively so he wasn't an obvious liability on either end.

    5) Orlando Johnson was worse than Pendy. Rated at -1.42 offensively and -1.94 defensively. His rating was actually quite close to Gerald Green (-2.04 offensively and -1.17 defensively).
    Tonight, all flags must burn, in place of steeples.
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    Default Re: An interesting view on our team's 12-13 season by RAPM

    Good lord the NBA needs more stats.
    "Missouri's former basketball coach Norm Stewart would traditionally have his players stay in Kansas City, Missouri, before playing at Kansas, going so far as to require the team bus to buy its gasoline at a Missouri filling station and reprimanding players who ate in Kansas, as he did not want to put any money into Kansas' economy."- MIZ-ZOU

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    Default Re: An interesting view on our team's 12-13 season by RAPM

    Does RAPM stand for Really Abstract Player Metric?

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    Default Re: An interesting view on our team's 12-13 season by RAPM

    Need an RAPM... Really Angry Pacers Members.
    "It's just unfortunate that we've been penalized so much this year and nothing has happened to the Pistons, the Palace or the city of Detroit," he said. "It's almost like it's always our fault. The league knows it. They should be ashamed of themselves to let the security be as lax as it is around here."

    ----------------- Reggie Miller

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    Default Re: An interesting view on our team's 12-13 season by RAPM

    This dog gone place is turning into a bowl of alphabet soup! RAPM? WARP? I mean........WTF?

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    Default Re: An interesting view on our team's 12-13 season by RAPM

    That chart demonstrates my bias towards defense and reveals why P. George and Hibbert are my favorite Pacers.

    As I've said before, I'm curious to see following the roster changes bolstering our offense if we can actually get some use of Mahinmi considering he doesn't need to do much related to scoring. Vogel should restrict his offense to easy put-backs only and tell him to focus on defense and rebounding.

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    Default Re: An interesting view on our team's 12-13 season by RAPM

    Quote Originally Posted by Brad8888 View Post
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    Does RAPM stand for Really Abstract Player Metric?
    No, I think it stands for "Random A-hole's Player Metric".

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    Default Re: An interesting view on our team's 12-13 season by RAPM

    Quote Originally Posted by IndyPacer View Post
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    As I've said before, I'm curious to see following the roster changes bolstering our offense if we can actually get some use of Mahinmi considering he doesn't need to do much related to scoring. Vogel should restrict his offense to easy put-backs only and tell him to focus on defense and rebounding.
    Mahinmi had 2 problems offensively last year. Turnovers and making a jump shot (shot 26.9%, 47/175 according to B-R). The turnovers were due to his bad hands so that's not something that can be fixed. But the jump shot issue could improve. Before coming to Indiana, Ian had attempted 136 jump shots in his NBA career. He surpassed that number by a lot in this last year. That happened because we used Ian at the high post in order to make room for Tyler in the low post.

    The roles will be reversed this year. Scola is an excellent high post big and Ian can spend his time in the low block close to the rim. So, his efficiency could improve simply because we can station him in the low post instead of the high post.
    Tonight, all flags must burn, in place of steeples.
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    Default Re: An interesting view on our team's 12-13 season by RAPM

    I agree, and to be clear, I think it's probable that the roster changes will be good for him overall and improve his fit for the team. I expect him to have a better season this year. Hibbert is not going to ever play 40 mpg, and the roster changes will allow Mahinmi to be on the floor without killing the offense because we have plenty of good options for scoring now.

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    Default Re: An interesting view on our team's 12-13 season by RAPM

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    UGH , This new season absolutely CANNOT start soon enough .... LOL














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    Last edited by Kemo; 08-10-2013 at 12:05 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by naptownmenace View Post
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    Plumlee reminds me of a young Dale Davis. Good rebounding and he contests shots well on defense and his offensive game is very raw just like DD's was coming out of college.
    "If my answers frighten you, then you should cease asking scary questions."

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    Default Re: An interesting view on our team's 12-13 season by RAPM

    I don't know why everyone is so upset over these stats. They actually match up exactly with the impact the players on last year's team had.

    DJ, Green, and OJ were usually a net negative while Paul, Roy, and David were the best players on the team. If you disagree with those stats, you're disagreeing with reality.
    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81
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    Larry is not coming back, he didn't have a meeting with Orlando for not reason, yeah he is coming back to the NBA but not to the Pacers, the notion that he is a taking a year off and then come back is absurd.
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    Default Re: An interesting view on our team's 12-13 season by RAPM

    There is a metric I like better, the WSG-UCS,* that makes it clear that Roy is one of the best centers in the league, Paul George is better than Granger, and Lance is a very strategic player for us on both sides of the floor.










    * Watch the Stupid Games and Use Common Sense
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    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    Default Re: An interesting view on our team's 12-13 season by RAPM

    I've pretty much given up caring about stats. The only stat I care about is how many wins the pacers get this year and how far into the playoffs.
    Bring Danny off the bench

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    Default Re: An interesting view on our team's 12-13 season by RAPM

    Quote Originally Posted by pacers_heath View Post
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    I've pretty much given up caring about stats. The only stat I care about is how many wins the pacers get this year and how far into the playoffs.
    I care about to important stats like scoring, rebounding, assists, TOs, +/-, etc
    Smothered Chicken!

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    Default Re: An interesting view on our team's 12-13 season by RAPM

    Quote Originally Posted by naptownmenace View Post
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    I don't know why everyone is so upset over these stats. They actually match up exactly with the impact the players on last year's team had.

    DJ, Green, and OJ were usually a net negative while Paul, Roy, and David were the best players on the team. If you disagree with those stats, you're disagreeing with reality.
    Technically, aren't you just saying that these stats match up exactly with your opinions in regard to the impact the players on last year's team had?

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    Default Re: An interesting view on our team's 12-13 season by RAPM

    Here is Scola's. Def is higher than Off, which is the opposite of what everyone here is saying. I think this metric will likely go up for him due to a better supporting cast than in Phoenix

    http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/teams/PHO.html

    Here's Cope's... Cope looks worse than Novak. Bad D, some O.

    http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/teams/NYK.html

    Sloan is a trainwreck

    http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/teams/NOH.html

    and Watson is below average as well

    http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/teams/BRK.html
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    Default Re: An interesting view on our team's 12-13 season by RAPM

    For those of us who still had no idea of what RAPM stands for, apparently it is "Regularized Adjusted Plus/Minus".

    http://godismyjudgeok.com/DStats/201...stabilization/

    Regularized Adjusted Plus/Minus

    The last approach I have seen in public is the Regularized Adjusted Plus/Minus (RAPM) first proposed by Joe Sill and presented at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. This approach takes advantage of a mathematical method known as Tikhonov Regularization or Ridge Regression. The method essentially adds a penalty factor to the regression for results being far away from the mean. This penalty factor, called lambda, is chosen based on cross validation, usually K-fold cross validation. The data is broken into a number of segments (folds) and 1 at a time is removed and various choices for lambda explored. The penalty factor is chosen such that maximum out-of-sample accuracy is attained. This should remove most collinearity/noise, but lose only a small amount of the validity of the measure–except, one major issue is that because all players are regressed toward league mean, players with few minutes are considered average, and to rate out really badly, a player must have had a bunch of minutes to verify that the player was indeed that bad.

    Jeremias Engelmann’s site stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com contains several versions of RAPM for different purposes. He’s got 1 year RAPM for the last 5 or 6 years, a 3.x year rating that has best out-of-sample accuracy for this year, some longer term ratings, ratings for the Euroleague, and ratings for several stats (such as rebounding). The framework is all RAPM. There are a few issues, as mentioned above: the regression of rarely-used players to league mean is a big one, the lack of aging adjustment for multi-year ratings another, and not weighting multi-year ratings towards recency for best predictive power a third. APBRmetrics threads are here and here.
    Would anybody here that knows what this all means beyond being a way to somehow partially validate +/- by throwing out a part of the data that is way out of whack with the rest of the data, probably due to that data being the least likely to be a representative sample of performance, please enlighten the rest of us?

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    Default Re: An interesting view on our team's 12-13 season by RAPM

    Quote Originally Posted by Nuntius View Post
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    Mahinmi had 2 problems offensively last year. Turnovers and making a jump shot (shot 26.9%, 47/175 according to B-R). The turnovers were due to his bad hands so that's not something that can be fixed. But the jump shot issue could improve. Before coming to Indiana, Ian had attempted 136 jump shots in his NBA career. He surpassed that number by a lot in this last year. That happened because we used Ian at the high post in order to make room for Tyler in the low post.

    The roles will be reversed this year. Scola is an excellent high post big and Ian can spend his time in the low block close to the rim. So, his efficiency could improve simply because we can station him in the low post instead of the high post.

    Both of these problems are mostly just Ian getting the ball away from the basket. With the midrange firepower we have off the bench this year, Ian should go back to pretty much being a putback/open dunk guy offensively.


    edit - which if i had kept reading i'd have known you pretty much said that already

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    Default Re: An interesting view on our team's 12-13 season by RAPM

    Quote Originally Posted by Brad8888 View Post
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    For those of us who still had no idea of what RAPM stands for, apparently it is "Regularized Adjusted Plus/Minus".

    http://godismyjudgeok.com/DStats/201...stabilization/



    Would anybody here that knows what this all means beyond being a way to somehow partially validate +/- by throwing out a part of the data that is way out of whack with the rest of the data, probably due to that data being the least likely to be a representative sample of performance, please enlighten the rest of us?
    It uses Plus/minus as its base. But values large differences in +/- in a decreasing amount. Rough example, a difference of +5 might be counted as a difference of +5. A difference of +25 might be counted as +20 and a difference of +50 counted as +30. The math in the middle explains how the reduced value is generated.

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    Default Re: An interesting view on our team's 12-13 season by RAPM

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    Technically, aren't you just saying that these stats match up exactly with your opinions in regard to the impact the players on last year's team had?
    No. The impact of those players are measurable and I think this metric explains it much better than the regular +/- and a bunch of others out there. I think they also explain why DJ and Gerald are no longer Pacers and why Frank kept OJ glued to the bench throughout the playoffs.

    We all know the bench stunk last year from watching the games. This stat just shows the degree of the stench.
    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81
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    Larry is not coming back, he didn't have a meeting with Orlando for not reason, yeah he is coming back to the NBA but not to the Pacers, the notion that he is a taking a year off and then come back is absurd.
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    Default Re: An interesting view on our team's 12-13 season by RAPM

    I would be more interested in these statistics in the playoffs, as that's when the team finally put it all together on both ends.

    I presume Roy would become our most efficient player overall, based on his offensive output and defensive dominance.

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