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Thread: The Curious Case of the Colts

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    Default The Curious Case of the Colts

    The Curious Case of the Colts
    Indianapolis went 11-5 last season does it have even a chance at improving on that?

    The Indianapolis Colts were one of 2012's most fascinating teams. Their rebuild from the bottom of the NFL came in way ahead of schedule, as the 2-14 Colts from 2011 improved all the way to 11-5 in 2012, earning an unlikely playoff berth in the process. Andrew Luck. Reggie Wayne. #Chuckstrong. You remember. The Colts were a fun team to watch and an easy team to root for. In terms of their expectations heading into the season, 2012 was a massive, massive success for the guys in Indy.

    As far as 2013 goes? We'll see. Obviously, if you've read some of Grantland's offseason NFL content from the past few months, I've pointed out that there are reasons to think that this year's Colts will decline, most of which involve metrics suggesting that Indianapolis was pretty lucky to go 11-5 last year. Each team that fits into the sort of statistically lucky categories last year's Colts team squeezed into will have anecdotal arguments suggesting that it'll be the team to avoid the decline, but Indy's case might be stronger than most. In the end, hopefully we can get a clear picture of whether the 2013 Colts will likely be able to repeat or even possibly improve upon the success they enjoyed a year ago.

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    I have thought a couple times about the Colts's record regressing, but still be an overall better team. I definitely think we played over our heads last year and I think some things will come back down to earth. I think that Luck's progression will counter balance that and that is why I predicted another 10-11 win season.

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  3. #2
    Pacer Pride, Colts Strong Kid Minneapolis's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Curious Case of the Colts

    I think we'll have a similar record while being a better team. I think what most people can't get past is that we weren't "supposed" to be very good last year, but I don't completely buy that. We weren't exactly a true 2-14 team the season before, in my mind. I thought we played well below our heads that year, even though, yes, we had major injuries. We still had a team that had just been to a recent SB and a lot of good coaches and players around. The team lost it's head and then the wheels fell off a bit... but I never really felt like they were a true 2-14 team. Last year, we gutted the team, and brought in patchwork players.... but we also brought in a new front office that I have a lot of respect for, and we brought in a few very special players. Last year we didn't play well "all the time". We were outscored on the season... but when you look at the numbers, we really had a bunch of close games, and we had a few big blow-outs early on. We started the season with a 20-point blow-out loss. Understandable, whole new team, rookie QB, on the road at a good team. Later in the year we had a 30-point blow-out loss to NE. Again... don't like to see it, but you understand it. The rest of the games, however, were very even. So yea, we split good play with bad play 50/50. But the key factor was that when it counted, we generally played well. Very well, in fact. When the game was on the line... when we had to get scores... when we had to get stops --- we did it. And that absolutely cannot be discounted. Throw in a sick head coach... to say we over-achieved might not even be correct... we had the kitchen sink thrown at us, and we still ended up 11-5 and to me it was no accident. It wasn't luck. It was Luck. Now this year... you take the same team.... you throw out the bad roster players... you fill in their spots with adequate to good substitutions.... you get your coach back... you get your good young players another year of experience... I'm not entirely sure it's smart to count these guys out. Sophomore slumps happen to unprepared players. We have smart, prepared players. They are more comfortable. Some key players have their college coordinator back. There's a LOT that points to Indy putting up a similar year this year. I actually feel a lot more comfortable with their potential playoff success this year with the system and players in place than I did going IN to last year's playoffs. I feel like, if this group of players gets in, they will be a lot more viably scary to opponents than last year's inexperienced group. And I still 100% believe we got the best young QB last year out of the 4 "rooks". 100%... it's not even a question to me. Luck is far and away the best player *now* and going into the future* of any of those four, and he is getting the least hype of all of them. I think he could be an MVP candidate *this* year, and going beyond into the next two years it's going to become extremely interesting. His overall skillset and grasp and attributes is absolutely beyond any other player I've ever seen in this league.
    Last edited by Kid Minneapolis; 08-08-2013 at 12:48 PM.
    There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

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  5. #3

    Default Re: The Curious Case of the Colts

    Kid M ............. I agree 100% and yet I could disagree 100%.

    I'll be OK.

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    You are my Lucifer D-BONE's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Curious Case of the Colts

    Well, I think they could be a better team, but still with a worse record. Hence, they could be a more legit playoff threat, yet struggling to get in.

    The schedule's not terribly difficult. No cake walks in the NFL, but could be worse. The O-line & the D have a lot to prove in my book to get back to last year's win total as well.

    Additionally, I just have this sense they'll have to struggle through a growing pains season or two (despite arguably improving) before they approach the 11+ win plateau. I'll say 7-9 win range this year. I'll go 8 - 8 as a prediction.
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  7. #5

    Default Re: The Curious Case of the Colts

    No clue what to expect this year. I have a strong feeling Luck will be fantastic and the defense will be solid because of the depth at each position. But this schedule is sneak tough. Seattle, 49ers, Arizona ( could be really good ), Houston x2 and Denver. I'm probably forgetting a few tough games, but just those alone are really tough.

  8. #6

    Default Re: The Curious Case of the Colts

    Glad to see I'm not the only one that doesn't quite know what to expect this year. During the Manning years - we had a good idea what the season would hold for them. This year - this group - not a clue.

  9. #7

    Default Re: The Curious Case of the Colts

    I am not worried about this season at all as long as Luck is healthy. This will be a better team no doubt. If we make the playoffs this team will be as tough to beat as anybody.

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    Default Re: The Curious Case of the Colts

    9-7 or 10-6.

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    Default Re: The Curious Case of the Colts

    IMO 12-4 or 13-3 is realistic

  13. #10

    Default Re: The Curious Case of the Colts

    I think it hinges on the defense, because I'm not worried about the offense. High of 12 wins, low of 9 wins I think.
    Don't ask Marvin Harrison what he did during the bye week. "Batman never told where the Bat Cave is," he explained.

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    Default Re: The Curious Case of the Colts

    9 wins most likely won't get playoffs in the AFC.

  15. #12

    Default Re: The Curious Case of the Colts

    I'm not so sure, the AFC kinda sucks
    Don't ask Marvin Harrison what he did during the bye week. "Batman never told where the Bat Cave is," he explained.

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    Default Re: The Curious Case of the Colts

    10 should be enough to get us in. 9 is borderline though. The AFC has weakened, but I'd still be nervous with 9 wins.

  17. #14

    Default Re: The Curious Case of the Colts

    ESPN preseason power rankings have Colts 6th in the AFC, 11th overall.

    interestingly 5 of the 6 bottom teams are AFC teams

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/powerrankings/_/year/2013/week/1
    The poster "pacertom" since this forum began (and before!). I changed my name here to "Slick Pinkham" in honor of the imaginary player That Bobby "Slick" Leonard picked late in the 1971 ABA draft (true story!)

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    Default Re: The Curious Case of the Colts

    I'm in the camp that we'll have a better team but will likely have a worse record than last yr. Obviously we played lights out in close games last yr, and I'm also in the camp that thinks we received an emotional boost from Pagano's health problems.

    With that said I think we will be a much more consistent and legitimate team this year and will simply lose a few more close games against great competition (Sf, SEA, Den, west coast trip to SD for MNF)

    I think we sweep the division and split with HOU (5 wins there) and I think we open the season 2-0. So the question is can we beat the Chargers, Rams and Cards to get to AT LEAST 10 wins? I think we go 2-1 in those games, but surprisingly beat one of SF, SEA or DEN (Ill say SF)

    So I'll say 10-6, WC berth and a w in the 1st rd of the playoffs.

    NEXT year however I believe we will begin another run of 12 plus win seasons

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    Default Re: The Curious Case of the Colts

    Wow, Mike Greenberg from Mike and Mike actually picked the Colts to lose to the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. He picked also picked Luck as MVP. He's 100% serious too.

    Now, he's just a fan with a microphone, but it's still interesting to see a national figurehead pick us to go that far. A lot of his logic made sense. New England isn't as dangerous as usual, Baltimore lost so many starters, the Texans are fool's gold, Cincy is over hyped, Denver has holes. I agree with most of that, but I still think we're a year away.

    I'm not sold on the Bengals either. It seems that we've been hearing for years that they're going to rise to the top of the AFC, yet they can't ever win more than 10 games. The Colts won more than that last year with a rookie quarterback and band aid roster. When the Bengals do something other than lose to the Texans in the playoffs, then maybe I'll give them some more props. They don't scare me.

  21. #17
    Pacer Pride, Colts Strong Kid Minneapolis's Avatar
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    Default Re: The Curious Case of the Colts

    I think Greenberg's prediction is a little 'Geek-esque, but then again 'Geek wasn't necessarily wrong on a lot of his over-the-top predictions last year. I do agree that Luck is way better than the other 3 hyped up rookies; I do believe they can be a playoff team; I wouldn't be *surprised* if we made the SB and I wouldn't be *surprised* if he was an MVP candidate.... but I'm also not thinking that we're at that point yet. I could be wrong. I do get tired of the whole "the Colts only did what they did last year because they were running on pure emotion" schpiel. I don't buy that. I think it had a gelling effect, but emotional effects don't run for entire seasons. Hell, a team owner can die, and his awful team might come out and win the next game, but then the high wears off and they lose again. I don't buy that because Pagano was in the hospital, we went on a damn near season-long tear of playing above our heads. Don't buy it. I think Luck is just that good, and people in the media aren't giving him enough credit for the effect he has on a team. I hate hearing that his completion % and interceptions weren't great while completely not even mentioning his rookie records for come-from-behind wins, passing yardage, highest yards per completion! Especially considering the amount of o-line and receiving help he had (read: outside of Wayne --- none). Can't even tell me that Reggie Wayne's receiving prowess won us 11 games last year. I love the dude, but let's be real. They knock Luck's completion % and INTs while not mentioning that he was running by far the most risky and complex offense that a rookie QB has ever even attempted, and he pulled it off with a few hiccups. Most rookie QBs would not have been able to even think about doing what Luck did last year, and the few who did, would've been crushed by the entire concept. Just tells me that there's a ton of people out there who don't know what to look for, or don't look at the right things when evaluating a player.
    Last edited by Kid Minneapolis; 09-05-2013 at 09:54 AM.
    There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

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    Default Re: The Curious Case of the Colts

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    Wow, Mike Greenberg from Mike and Mike actually picked the Colts...
    I'm sorry for your loss.

    There's always next year.



    (the Greenie "Kiss of Death" is notorious. I think he picked the Eagles and maybe the Chargers? last year, and his March Madness picks are always guides for picking the opposite!)
    The poster "pacertom" since this forum began (and before!). I changed my name here to "Slick Pinkham" in honor of the imaginary player That Bobby "Slick" Leonard picked late in the 1971 ABA draft (true story!)

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  25. #19

    Default Re: The Curious Case of the Colts

    To be fair he's pretty much the only person picking the Colts, so when we don't make the SB, I'm not going to be mad at him
    Don't ask Marvin Harrison what he did during the bye week. "Batman never told where the Bat Cave is," he explained.

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