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Thread: ESPN Insider Article: Projecting top 10 SF's for 2013-2014

  1. #1
    Member adamscb's Avatar
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    Default ESPN Insider Article: Projecting top 10 SF's for 2013-2014

    http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story...s-warp-2013-14

    1. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
    Projected 2013-14 WARP: 18.3
    Durant has to stop getting better, right? Last season, he soared to 22.4 WARP, and his projection for this season is merely a statistical model seeing some regression to the mean. Seasons in which a player combines a usage rate of at least 30 percent with a true shooting percentage of .600 or better are historically rare. Durant has made it a matter of routine, and ATH is forecasting another such a season. He also improved his assist rate for the second straight season, a gain ATH sees Durant mostly retaining.


    2. Paul Pierce, Brooklyn Nets
    Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.6
    Pierce is entering a contract year, and at 36 years old, he may not have many more of those. He's aged remarkably well, though you can see in the projections of Durant and Pierce the gap in value between a borderline All-Star and an MVP candidate. Pierce has hit double digits in WARP in each of the past three seasons, but it remains to be seen how he'll fit into the new hierarchy in Brooklyn. ATH sees Pierce retaining his efficiency and more, with an uptick in true shooting percentage from .559 to .592. However, the system sees a 4.4 percent drop in usage rate as he'll have less to do in the stacked Nets lineup.


    3. Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
    Projected 2013-14 WARP: 8.0
    People are still irritated at ATH's projection for Tony Parker, but Spurs fans shouldn't worry because Leonard is there to pick up the slack. One of the league's rising stars, the system sees Leonard reaching All-Star level production in 2013-14 with a winning percentage creeping over the .600 mark. Most of that is efficiency and defense, with a forecasted 3-point success rate of 40.5 percent. His usage rate is projected to remain mostly stagnant, but if he edges it close to the league average, look out.


    4. Andre Iguodala, Golden State Warriors
    Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.9
    Iguodala's efficiency dropped last season, which was a surprise considering his supposed fit in George Karl's system. His turnover rate jumped by more than 3 percent, and his 3-point shooting slipped from .394 to .317. Also, perhaps because he played more 2 than 3, his defensive rating fell off a little as well. ATH sees Iguodala bouncing back this season as a Warrior, though not quite to the level of his best seasons in Philadelphia. He turns 30 in January and another a drop in rebounding and his ability to draw fouls would be evidence that Iggy is losing a shade of his elite athleticism.


    5. Nicolas Batum, Portland Trail Blazers
    Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.8
    Batum's steady improvement hit a plateau in his fifth NBA season, and his 2.2 percent loss in usage rate suggests that playing alongside Damian Lillard may have actually impacted his game in a negative fashion. For Portland to get back into the playoff hunt this season, Batum needs to be a stronger No. 3 to the core duo of Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge. Right now, Batum is perimeter-oriented, but his 3-point success rate was just around league average last season. He's been around 40 percent a couple of times, and if he can get back to that, then perhaps he can make more plays off the dribble and get to the foul line more often.


    6. Danny Granger, Indiana Pacers
    Projected 2013-14 WARP: 7.4
    We don't know yet if Granger's knee trouble is chronic, and ATH sees him recovering much of his pre-injury value. I'm skeptical. Even without the injuries, Granger is getting on in years as he will hit 31 near the end of the season. He's also likely to be Indiana's fourth option now with Paul George's emergence. If he can embrace that role with heretofore unseen efficiency, then he can help keep the Pacers in the title hunt.



    7. Paul George, Indiana Pacers
    Projected 2013-14 WARP: 6.8
    Speaking of George, his playoff breakout isn't represented here, and subjectively, I do see that performance as a coming-of-age rather than a fluke. So while I can't get ATH to replicate the effect, I think George will soar near the top of these rankings and will supplant Granger in the former Indiana offensive hierarchy.



    8. Andrei Kirilenko, Brooklyn Nets
    Projected 2013-14 WARP: 5.2
    Between Pierce and Kirilenko, the Nets have the best combination at small forward of any team in the league, and the duo should be a good fit to play together in different lineup configurations. Like Pierce, Kirilenko is projected to give up some of his possessions, but his true shooting percentage is forecast to surpass .600 for the first time in five years. He turns 33 this season, but all of his athletic indicators remain strong.


    9. Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks
    Projected 2013-14 WARP: 5.2
    The last three ranked players on the small forward list represent what the position has become for so many teams: A floor-spacing position filled by guys who shoot a high percentage from the corner. Korver is the prototype, and while he's certainly not an elite individual defender, he doesn't kill you in the team concept. The Hawks didn't get much out of Korver's fine passing skills last season, but with a new roster, maybe that facet of his game will bounce back.


    10. Chandler Parsons, Houston Rockets
    Projected 2013-14 WARP: 4.8
    If there was a way to subjectively tweak WARP to give Parsons extra credit for his role in recruiting Dwight Howard to Houston, he'd rank higher. As it is, I think ATH is underrating Parsons, both for what he's done and what he should be able to do playing off Howard and James Harden. The system sees a little regression in his 3-point percentage and, thus, his true shooting percentage, but I wouldn't be surprised to see those figures continue on an upwards arc.
    Am I the only one that thinks this list is complete bull****? Paul George in my mind should be #2 here, and no way Granger is ahead of him. Making this list based on WARP alone is just stupid.
    Last edited by adamscb; 08-05-2013 at 11:47 PM.

  2. #2
    The evolution continues neosmndrew's Avatar
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    Default Re: ESPN Insider Article: Projecting top 10 SF's for 2013-2014

    I just don't agree with the recent Leonard lovefest going on at ESPN. I like the kid a lot, but he isn't even all-star material and probably won't be for at least a few years.


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    Default Re: ESPN Insider Article: Projecting top 10 SF's for 2013-2014

    Terrible list. Would any team take Batum over Paul George? Get the hell out of here.

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    Default Re: ESPN Insider Article: Projecting top 10 SF's for 2013-2014

    It's just a list based solely off Projected WARP. If you read the blurb, the guy even concedes that PG will probably be more like #2 on this list during the year. That being said, these are still idiotic projections.

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    Default Re: ESPN Insider Article: Projecting top 10 SF's for 2013-2014

    This list is a sign that the stat doesn't work.

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    Default Re: ESPN Insider Article: Projecting top 10 SF's for 2013-2014

    Those are just stupid. I think Lebron is still listed as a sf so that alone makes these out of line. Iggy is on his way to being a single digit scoring option but I've never agreed with the lovefest with Iggy. Beyond that I disagree with every single ranking.

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  11. #7

    Default Re: ESPN Insider Article: Projecting top 10 SF's for 2013-2014

    Wait where is Lebron? Shouldn't he at least have WARP rating, whatever that is.

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    #Franking Heisenberg's Avatar
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    Default Re: ESPN Insider Article: Projecting top 10 SF's for 2013-2014

    Further evidence that analytics doesn't give you answers, just narrows the field. For the most part they tell you what guys can't do, not what they can.

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    Default Re: ESPN Insider Article: Projecting top 10 SF's for 2013-2014

    Dear ESPN writer, if whatever fancy statistic you pick to measure the worth of NBA players has Iguodala come out as better (or more valuable) than Paul George, then you should probably question the meaning of that statistic (and thereby do your job as a journalist)...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pingu View Post
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    Dear ESPN writer, if whatever fancy statistic you pick to measure the worth of NBA players has Iguodala come out as better (or more valuable) than Paul George, then you should probably question the meaning of that statistic (and thereby do your job as a journalist)...
    Idk man I wish iggy was playing next to Paul, that would be an absolutely deadly wing combo. Big fan of Iggy he is probably the current ultimate role player.

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    10 - 32 - 50 31andonly's Avatar
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    Default Re: ESPN Insider Article: Projecting top 10 SF's for 2013-2014

    Chandler Parsons > Lebron James
    Thank you Jeff.

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    Default Re: ESPN Insider Article: Projecting top 10 SF's for 2013-2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Heisenberg View Post
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    Further evidence that analytics doesn't give you answers, just narrows the field.
    And the first 4 letters of analytics are .................

  19. #13

    Default Re: ESPN Insider Article: Projecting top 10 SF's for 2013-2014

    This list got to be a joke

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    PROUD 2 B A PACERS FAN! xtacy's Avatar
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    Default Re: ESPN Insider Article: Projecting top 10 SF's for 2013-2014

    the writer of this article is making a living from writing basketball...

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    Default Re: ESPN Insider Article: Projecting top 10 SF's for 2013-2014

    So Lebron is now a power forward?
    Smothered Chicken!

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    Default Re: ESPN Insider Article: Projecting top 10 SF's for 2013-2014

    Intuition over integers.
    .

    .

    .

    .


    “People talk about how quiet he [McKey] is, but he’s really been helpful. He gives a lot of insight to players in how to guard certain teams and what their weaknesses are. The whole team listens to him, and it makes my job a lot easier. Having players like him is what pro basketball is all about for me.” —Larry Brown

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    Member adamscb's Avatar
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    Default Re: ESPN Insider Article: Projecting top 10 SF's for 2013-2014

    I agree with you guys, my jaw dropped when first reading this. James is considered a power-forward in these rankings. And Doolittle is the author.

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    Default Re: ESPN Insider Article: Projecting top 10 SF's for 2013-2014

    So I guess Lebron is number 11?

    Problem with these lists is who is really a small forward, power forward or shooting guard.

    If you assume that Granger is going to be the 6th best small forward, then Paul George certainly isn't going to be the 7th best. if DG is getting that much time at small forward, then PG will get most of his time at shooting guard.

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    Default Re: ESPN Insider Article: Projecting top 10 SF's for 2013-2014

    Quote Originally Posted by PacersHomer View Post
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    This list is a sign that the stat doesn't work.
    Note what it said about Gay. It doesn't favor high volume, low efficiency shooters, and as much as we think PG is going to be great, he shot a very poor percentage last year. I don't think anyone will find that acceptable going forward. He's just average as a 3pt shooter, but he shoots almost twice as many 3's as he does FT's per game. That has to change. That's actually a ridiculous reality, but it was vastly better in the playoffs.

    I bet his long 2% was awful in the season view.

    PG brings other things to the table. He's an excellent defender (at worst a willing defender), rebounds his position very well, and the offense can be run through him. There is a lot to like, but unless he starts getting to the line more, curbs his 3ptA's and shoots around an overall 48% from the field, if not higher, he won't be great.

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    Default Re: ESPN Insider Article: Projecting top 10 SF's for 2013-2014

    It will tell you the position these guys are listed in is based on usage, making LeBron and Carmelo PF's.

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    Pacers Fan For Life J7F's Avatar
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    Default Re: ESPN Insider Article: Projecting top 10 SF's for 2013-2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Jim R View Post
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    Note what it said about Gay. It doesn't favor high volume, low efficiency shooters, and as much as we think PG is going to be great, he shot a very poor percentage last year. I don't think anyone will find that acceptable going forward. He's just average as a 3pt shooter, but he shoots almost twice as many 3's as he does FT's per game. That has to change. That's actually a ridiculous reality, but it was vastly better in the playoffs.

    I bet his long 2% was awful in the season view.

    PG brings other things to the table. He's an excellent defender (at worst a willing defender), rebounds his position very well, and the offense can be run through him. There is a lot to like, but unless he starts getting to the line more, curbs his 3ptA's and shoots around an overall 48% from the field, if not higher, he won't be great.
    I have to believe we will see Paul used like he was in the Playoffs this year... Bringing the ball up the court to facilitate the plays and being more aggressive going to the rim... My only worry is that at some point in the season he will revert to roaming for 3s due to built up fatigue and a need to preserve himself for the Playoffs... That's all he did for like the last 2-3 weeks of last season... But as soon as the games mattered again he started to attack... We will hopefully be playing for the 1 seed in the final weeks this year though... So maybe we won't see it? This also may not have to happen if we can get consistent scoring from all of our other players this year... Which we should...
    Nothing in life worth having comes easy.

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    Default Re: ESPN Insider Article: Projecting top 10 SF's for 2013-2014

    Quote Originally Posted by J7F View Post
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    I have to believe we will see Paul used like he was in the Playoffs this year... Bringing the ball up the court to facilitate the plays and being more aggressive going to the rim... My only worry is that at some point in the season he will revert to roaming for 3s due to built up fatigue and a need to preserve himself for the Playoffs... That's all he did for like the last 2-3 weeks of last season... But as soon as the games mattered again he started to attack... We will hopefully be playing for the 1 seed in the final weeks this year though... So maybe we won't see it? This also may not have to happen if we can get consistent scoring from all of our other players this year... Which we should...

    What will change PG's efficiency is one more shooter who can help space the floor. I was replying to the astonishment given to the statistical analysis. It's hard to argue its usage since San Antonio completely bought in a decade ago. Memphis has gone in that direction, and Philly and Atlanta are certainly all in at this point. I'm sure there are others, and I'm sure most, if not all, teams have deep stats as part of their decision making.

    If Granger can stay healthy and doesn't continue his high volume ways, that will certainly help the Pacers, and it will show up in PG's improved non-usage related offensive numbers.

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  33. #23
    DIET COKE! Trader Joe's Avatar
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    Default Re: ESPN Insider Article: Projecting top 10 SF's for 2013-2014

    Lol

    If your stat projects Kawhi Leonard as the 3rd best SF in basketball, your stat is probably completely useless.

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    Default Re: ESPN Insider Article: Projecting top 10 SF's for 2013-2014

    Pierce, Leonard, Iggy, Batum, and Granger above PG is just a complete joke. PG dusts all of them.

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    Default Re: ESPN Insider Article: Projecting top 10 SF's for 2013-2014

    Danny over Paul George? hahahahahaha, more proof that stats suck.

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