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Thread: Broncos Odds On Favorite By Vegas. Really???

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    Member presto123's Avatar
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    Default Broncos Odds On Favorite By Vegas. Really???

    I like Peyton Manning...but c'mon. The guy is almost anti-clutch when it comes to post season history. The year we won the SB it was more running game and defense that won it. Peyton made a huge mistake last year in the playoffs. I called it before it happened. Not meant to be a Peyton bashing thread but I think Vegas needs to look at past history more. More often than not Peyton has not performed when it matters most. I have zero confidence the Broncos will win the SB this year. It would be a good bet if I had big money to bet.

  2. #2

    Default Re: Broncos Odds On Favorite By Vegas. Really???

    Newsflash:: Defense wins championships despite how offense oriented the NFL has become in the end it comes down to defense(and a running game) the Patriots had a great defense and won SB's now that its Brady focused not so much.

    Besides while Manning did make that costly pick had Jacoby Jones actually been covered in regulation it would've been a moot point but we'll never know. There's so many what ifs in sports like the Spurs blowing the NBA Finals like they did.

    I don't get why it bothers you so much its only Vegas which is usually an indicator that its not going to happen regardless. Unlike the NBA the NFL postseason is decided in one game as opposed to a series.. The best team doesn't always win just the one who is able to get everything going their way in a few games.


    I mean when the Colts won we weren't the best team that season either.


    If not for the Aaron Hernandez situation they would've picked the Pats

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    Default Re: Broncos Odds On Favorite By Vegas. Really???

    Peyton has a higher postseason QBR than guys like Brady & Roethlisberger and also has a 158.3 game in the postseason, and I believe the active if not all time leader in 4th QTR comebacks



    He's also the best probably the best quarterback of all time, so to use him as a reason for the Broncos NOT being favorites is preposterous.

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    Member presto123's Avatar
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    Default Re: Broncos Odds On Favorite By Vegas. Really???

    Quote Originally Posted by Jukeb0xHero View Post
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    Peyton has a higher postseason QBR than guys like Brady & Roethlisberger and also has a 158.3 game in the postseason, and I believe the active if not all time leader in 4th QTR comebacks



    He's also the best probably the best quarterback of all time, so to use him as a reason for the Broncos NOT being favorites is preposterous.

    I think the QB rating is quite deceiving. Peyton had some killer games early in the playoffs a lot of times but had some horrible games in AFC Championships where the screws are really tightened. More pressure associated with the game the worse he performs. Anybody who says Eli is not more clutch is delusional.


    Just watch when Peyton throws a BIG untimely pick in the post season this year. It's coming.

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    Default Re: Broncos Odds On Favorite By Vegas. Really???

    Quote Originally Posted by presto123 View Post
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    I think the QB rating is quite deceiving. Peyton had some killer games early in the playoffs a lot of times but had some horrible games in AFC Championships where the screws are really tightened. More pressure associated with the game the worse he performs. Anybody who says Eli is not more clutch is delusional.


    Just watch when Peyton throws a BIG untimely pick in the post season this year. It's coming.

    Yeah, Eli's postseason resume' is without question more impressive than Peyton's. I don't see how that's even debatable. The road wins against the likes of the Packers and 49ers, as well as the clutch throws against the Patriots in two Super Bowls, are the types of wins that you wish you saw more often in Peyton's career.

    Peyton is definitely the better quarterback though because sometimes Eli isn't even good enough to get his team in the playoffs. The postseason is obviously super important, but you have to make it there year after year to be a true elite. I've always been disappointed that Eli hasn't been able to kick it into another gear during the regular season. It's what he failed to do last year. That Giants team started out 6-2, but missed the playoffs. No excuse.

    There can always be surprises in the NFL as the Colts showed last year, but this might be one of the weakest AFC's that Peyton has ever faced. On paper, the Broncos are head and shoulders the favorite to make the Super Bowl. The Ravens lost virtually every recognizable face outside of Flacco and Rice. The Pats basically lost their entire offense. The Steelers are old. The Texans are fool's gold. The Colts are probably still a step away from becoming a true Super Bowl contender. It's all set up for the Broncos to make it to the Super Bowl this year. It will be a black mark on Peyton's legacy if they don't.

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    Default Re: Broncos Odds On Favorite By Vegas. Really???

    I would also point out that Eli's teams have been way better than Peyton's. We never had a defense or a running game really.

    I would agree that it's all set up for the Broncos, but as Peyton's teams have shown, nothing is guaranteed. Just look at those inexplicable Chargers losses in the playoffs.
    Don't ask Marvin Harrison what he did during the bye week. "Batman never told where the Bat Cave is," he explained.

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    Default Re: Broncos Odds On Favorite By Vegas. Really???

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    Yeah, Eli's postseason resume' is without question more impressive than Peyton's. I don't see how that's even debatable. The road wins against the likes of the Packers and 49ers, as well as the clutch throws against the Patriots in two Super Bowls, are the types of wins that you wish you saw more often in Peyton's career.

    Peyton is definitely the better quarterback though because sometimes Eli isn't even good enough to get his team in the playoffs. The postseason is obviously super important, but you have to make it there year after year to be a true elite. I've always been disappointed that Eli hasn't been able to kick it into another gear during the regular season. It's what he failed to do last year. That Giants team started out 6-2, but missed the playoffs. No excuse.

    There can always be surprises in the NFL as the Colts showed last year, but this might be one of the weakest AFC's that Peyton has ever faced. On paper, the Broncos are head and shoulders the favorite to make the Super Bowl. The Ravens lost virtually every recognizable face outside of Flacco and Rice. The Pats basically lost their entire offense. The Steelers are old. The Texans are fool's gold. The Colts are probably still a step away from becoming a true Super Bowl contender. It's all set up for the Broncos to make it to the Super Bowl this year. It will be a black mark on Peyton's legacy if they don't.

    Yeah just like it was a black mark all the other years he hasn't gotten to the SB. Until next season when they say if he doesn't win another SB his career is a failure... This narrative gets old considering I never saw Marino get this much flack(unless I must've forgotten) and he was ringless along with Jim Kelly who went to 4 SBs and didn't even win one.


    Quote Originally Posted by presto123 View Post
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    I think the QB rating is quite deceiving. Peyton had some killer games early in the playoffs a lot of times but had some horrible games in AFC Championships where the screws are really tightened. More pressure associated with the game the worse he performs. Anybody who says Eli is not more clutch is delusional.


    Just watch when Peyton throws a BIG untimely pick in the post season this year. It's coming.
    Of course its deceiving just like all stats however he's only been in 3 AFC title games and is 2-1 that's not exactly bad.

    So I'm not sure what you're talking about here now if you're referring to the divisional rounds? Yeah that makes more sense. Even the last playoff game with the Jets he didn't even thow a pick and we still lost so what does that say...
    Last edited by Basketball Fan; 07-27-2013 at 02:02 PM.

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    Default Re: Broncos Odds On Favorite By Vegas. Really???

    Quote Originally Posted by Suaveness View Post
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    I would also point out that Eli's teams have been way better than Peyton's. We never had a defense or a running game really.

    I would agree that it's all set up for the Broncos, but as Peyton's teams have shown, nothing is guaranteed. Just look at those inexplicable Chargers losses in the playoffs.
    We had a deadly run game with Edge, aside from when that injury screwed him up for a couple of years. But once he healed, he was a complete stud in his final three seasons here.

    But there's no doubt that the running game was poor in Manning's final few seasons here.

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    Default Re: Broncos Odds On Favorite By Vegas. Really???

    Quote Originally Posted by Basketball Fan View Post
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    Yeah just like it was a black mark all the other years he hasn't gotten to the SB. Until next season when they say if he doesn't win another SB his career is a failure... This narrative gets old considering I never saw Marino get this much flack(unless I must've forgotten) and he was ringless along with Jim Kelly who went to 4 SBs and didn't even win one.
    Barring something unforeseen, the 2013 AFC will maybe be the weakest that Manning has ever faced. The balance of power is in the NFC now.

    Nothing is guaranteed, but on paper it will be a huge disappointment if Denver flames out in the playoffs again. Manning's team snagged his rival's biggest weapon. The ball is in Denver's court.

    Look, I'm as big of a Manning fan as anyone, but at some point he deserves at least a little of the blame for his team's poor showings in the playoffs.

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    Default Re: Broncos Odds On Favorite By Vegas. Really???

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    Barring something unforeseen, the 2013 AFC will maybe be the weakest that Manning has ever faced. The balance of power is in the NFC now.

    Nothing is guaranteed, but on paper it will be a huge disappointment if Denver flames out in the playoffs again. Manning's team snagged his rival's biggest weapon. The ball is in Denver's court.

    Look, I'm as big of a Manning fan as anyone, but at some point he deserves at least a little of the blame for his team's poor showings in the playoffs.
    I think the Welker move is not that big a deal but that's another story.

    I never said he was faultless I just never agreed with him being the sole reason for why we win/lose playoff games yes QB play is important and its not to say that he hasn't made costly decisions but if Vanderjagt made a couple of FGs or Jacoby Jones was covered at the end of regulation when the Broncos were seconds away from winning this conversation would be a lot different. Hell if Elway didn't win the last 2 SB's of his career he'd be the epic disappointment going to 5 SBs and losing them all. Its just that Manning has won an SB and yet while I always believed he should've won more its as if winning an SB is always forgotten with him. I thought Brady played worse against the Ravens than Manning did and yet never got as much heat over it but he's won 3 rings so I guess he gets that protection.

    If Scott Norwood made that FG against the Giants Jim Kelly would be looked at in higher regard but he didn't so does that mean Jim Kelly sucks? No

    Brad Johnson won an SB but is anyone saying he's an all time great or HOFer because of it no? Same with Trent Dilfer.

    While I think a QB winning an SB is significant I never bought that as a determining factor in whether a QB is great or not either.

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    Default Re: Broncos Odds On Favorite By Vegas. Really???

    I agree with you mainly because many people(not on here) think that the QB play is the sole reason for winning a SB or not but someone might say that between top QB's judging who has the most SB rings is a criterion that sets them apart.
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    Default Re: Broncos Odds On Favorite By Vegas. Really???

    Quote Originally Posted by Basketball Fan View Post
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    I think the Welker move is not that big a deal but that's another story.

    I never said he was faultless I just never agreed with him being the sole reason for why we win/lose playoff games yes QB play is important and its not to say that he hasn't made costly decisions but if Vanderjagt made a couple of FGs or Jacoby Jones was covered at the end of regulation when the Broncos were seconds away from winning this conversation would be a lot different. Hell if Elway didn't win the last 2 SB's of his career he'd be the epic disappointment going to 5 SBs and losing them all. Its just that Manning has won an SB and yet while I always believed he should've won more its as if winning an SB is always forgotten with him. I thought Brady played worse against the Ravens than Manning did and yet never got as much heat over it but he's won 3 rings so I guess he gets that protection.

    If Scott Norwood made that FG against the Giants Jim Kelly would be looked at in higher regard but he didn't so does that mean Jim Kelly sucks? No

    Brad Johnson won an SB but is anyone saying he's an all time great or HOFer because of it no? Same with Trent Dilfer.

    While I think a QB winning an SB is significant I never bought that as a determining factor in whether a QB is great or not either.

    I'm really not disagreeing with what you're saying. I know that the QB isn't the sole factor. But Manning gets all of the accolades when his teams succeed in the regular season, so it's only fair that he gets some of the blame for disappointing postseason play. Sure, the Jacoby Jones situation was a lapse, but you also have to remember that Manning got 14 points from Special Teams returns in that game.

    Brady hasn't been very impressive in the playoffs in recent years, but he will always have the 5 Super Bowl appearances and 3 rings. He played a major factor in all of that.

    What Manning's legacy really needed was that Super Bowl win against an elite QB in Brees. No one would have ever again questioned his playoff resume'.

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    Default Re: Broncos Odds On Favorite By Vegas. Really???

    I hate remembering all the stupid Charger losses and of course the frauds that are the Saints winning in 2009.

    Sproles killing us in 2008 and BILLY VOLEK marching down the field to score in 2007 (we were without Freeney) but still, that's bad. I was behind the Chargers bench and Shawn "I take roids" Merriman was talking so much **** to the fans. Phillip "I'm a horrible QB that gets worshiped by ESPN" Rivers was talking **** as well.

    Yeah, I got some hate in my heart over all the Playoff screw ups.

    Should have had a lot more Super Bowl appearances than what we had during that era. But losing to the Saints really just stung. Especially after how everyone was on their jock after they won, then finding out their coaches were frauds who preached hurting other players.

    Anyway, the AFC is really really weak like what everyone has said. It's Peyton's time to solidify himself as the greatest QB to ever play the game.
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  19. #14

    Default Re: Broncos Odds On Favorite By Vegas. Really???

    The Broncos have by far the best offense since the '07 Patriots, and on defense they still have Von Miller (for the last 12 games and playoffs at least), Champ Bailey, and Chris Harris leading the D. Why is it surprising that they are the Super Bowl favorites?

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    Default Re: Broncos Odds On Favorite By Vegas. Really???

    Irsay just came out and said he considers the Manning era slightly disappointing. I agree totally and so does 79% on an ESPN nationwide poll. 7 first round exits during the Manning years. 9-11 playoff record. It boggles the mind. I know it's not ALL on Manning, but I could tell from body language alone that Manning was not as confident in the playoffs. Great regular season QB though. Maybe the best.

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    Default Re: Broncos Odds On Favorite By Vegas. Really???

    Quote Originally Posted by Sollozzo View Post
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    I'm really not disagreeing with what you're saying. I know that the QB isn't the sole factor. But Manning gets all of the accolades when his teams succeed in the regular season, so it's only fair that he gets some of the blame for disappointing postseason play. Sure, the Jacoby Jones situation was a lapse, but you also have to remember that Manning got 14 points from Special Teams returns in that game.

    Brady hasn't been very impressive in the playoffs in recent years, but he will always have the 5 Super Bowl appearances and 3 rings. He played a major factor in all of that.

    What Manning's legacy really needed was that Super Bowl win against an elite QB in Brees. No one would have ever again questioned his playoff resume'.

    But that's the thing you can't control who you play in the SB.. you play who's in front of you and for one season he did that and beat them all.

    Call me crazy but I would think winning the SB is enough regardless of opponent I'm sure Dan Marino and Jim Kelly would feel the same.

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    Default Re: Broncos Odds On Favorite By Vegas. Really???

    Quote Originally Posted by presto123 View Post
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    Irsay just came out and said he considers the Manning era slightly disappointing. I agree totally and so does 79% on an ESPN nationwide poll. 7 first round exits during the Manning years. 9-11 playoff record. It boggles the mind. I know it's not ALL on Manning, but I could tell from body language alone that Manning was not as confident in the playoffs. Great regular season QB though. Maybe the best.

    Yes it was a very underachieving era I've said that many times but Irsay also needs to STFU considering that he was the one who hired the personnel to build such a flawed concept to begin with a team built for regular season and not the postseason. I mean he's the owner he should've seen that long before now. To even say Manning bears most of the blame for it is rather disrespectful and ungrateful on his end considering he was going to bolt out of Indy with the Colts years ago.

  25. #18

    Default Re: Broncos Odds On Favorite By Vegas. Really???

    Almost none of it is on Manning, at least for the post-Super Bowl XLI games. The rest go on people like Marvin Harrison, injuries to Freeney and Mathis, Kenton Keith, Gijon Robinson, Mike Scrifes, Billy Volek, Pierre Garcon, Hank Baskett, Drew Brees, Tim Jennings, Jim Caldwell, kick coverage teams, and Rahim Moore. Manning is an above average playoff performer as the stats would suggest. He has just had terrible luck and bad timing.

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    The New Gold Swagger travmil's Avatar
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    Default Re: Broncos Odds On Favorite By Vegas. Really???

    You have to remember that Vegas odds aren't really based on who they think has the best odds to win. They are based on which odds for which teams and games will make the most bettors bet and potentially make their books the most money. Vegas wins more often than not or they would have stopped making sports books a long time ago...
    Last edited by travmil; 07-29-2013 at 10:43 PM.

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    Default Re: Broncos Odds On Favorite By Vegas. Really???

    http://blogs.denverpost.com/broncos/...vorites/24120/

    For the first time since midsummer, the Las Vegas Hotel sports book has not listed the Broncos as the favorite to win the Super Bowl.

    The Seattle Seahawks are now the favorites with 3-to-2 odds to win Super Bowl XLVIII. The Broncos are second with 5-to-2 odds. The Broncos were listed as the prohibitive favorites from training camp until two weeks ago, when they became co-favorites with the Seattle Seahawks. Now the 12-2 Seahawks are the favorites to win the Super Bowl in New jersey on Feb. 2.

    “There are three factors that led to the odds change,” said Jay Kornegay, sports director for the LVH super book. “One, the offense didn’t play that well against San Diego. Two, the defense is concerning. And three, Seattle has consistently played well.”

    The San Francisco 49ers are a distant third with 8-to-1 odds, followed by New England (12-to-1), New Orleans (12-to-1), Cincinnati (12-to-1) and Carolina (12-to-1).

    Surprisingly, Kansas City (16-to-1) and Indianapolis (30-to-1) are not getting much love even though they are the only teams besides Seattle and Denver to have clinched a playoff berth.

  28. #21
    Let PG Fly Again Soon! ECKrueger's Avatar
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    Default Re: Broncos Odds On Favorite By Vegas. Really???

    I don't think it is a stretch to say Denver is the favorite. Seattle is not quite the same away from home, and everyone else is meh.

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    Default Re: Broncos Odds On Favorite By Vegas. Really???

    Quote Originally Posted by Basketball Fan View Post
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    While I think a QB winning an SB is significant I never bought that as a determining factor in whether a QB is great or not either.
    I don't disagree with you, but 90% of the pundits do. Reminds me of lunch-break conversations with people whom were born-and-raised here in the heartland, and didn't like Peyton because (at that time) he didn't win

    But on the flip side, I felt it was strickly HIS fault we failed against New Orleans in the Super Bowl. Some people may disagree, but I put that loss 60-85% on Peyton

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    Default Re: Broncos Odds On Favorite By Vegas. Really???

    Quote Originally Posted by pogi View Post
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    I don't disagree with you, but 90% of the pundits do. Reminds me of lunch-break conversations with people whom were born-and-raised here in the heartland, and didn't like Peyton because (at that time) he didn't win

    But on the flip side, I felt it was strickly HIS fault we failed against New Orleans in the Super Bowl. Some people may disagree, but I put that loss 60-85% on Peyton
    And yet you agree with the pundits apparently.

    He's partly to blame but I fail to see how it was all his fault that that the defense couldn't stop Drew Brees or the failed coverage on the onside kick. We played not to lose the Saints played to win therefore they did. Conservative playcalling gets you everytime.

    As much as that loss sucked it was probably for the best long term for the Colts otherwise we'd have been stuck with Caldwell/Polian even longer.

  31. #24

    Default Re: Broncos Odds On Favorite By Vegas. Really???

    Quote Originally Posted by pogi View Post
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    I don't disagree with you, but 90% of the pundits do. Reminds me of lunch-break conversations with people whom were born-and-raised here in the heartland, and didn't like Peyton because (at that time) he didn't win

    But on the flip side, I felt it was strickly HIS fault we failed against New Orleans in the Super Bowl. Some people may disagree, but I put that loss 60-85% on Peyton
    I can see the Peyton blame for the Saints game on first glance. 17 points against the Saints D that was not the strength of their team is not a great result for a hall of fame QB. Then of course you add in the pick 6, and I can see why some would blame Peyton.

    When looking at it a little further though, I think Peyton is much less to blame. The Colts only had 8 drives in that entire game. That is really low for an NFL game. The average starting field position for the Colts was the 16.625 yard line which is awful. Garcon dropped a very easy catch on 3rd down that killed one possession, they got stuffed running the ball on 3rd and 1 on a drive that started at their own 1, and they missed a long field goal.

    Manning played well the vast majority of that game. He did make the one huge mistake, and the Colts did have to settle for field goals in a couple of places so I wouldn't put the game on his highlight reel, but I wouldn't really blame him either. It really was a game that went true to form. Both offenses dominated like everyone expected, and it came down to who could come up with the one key special teams/defense play. The Saints ended up making both of them (the onside kick, the pick 6) and that won them the game. The point totals weren't that high, but that's only because both teams were going on long drive after long drive.

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    Default Re: Broncos Odds On Favorite By Vegas. Really???

    In that Super Bowl, we were just unfortunate to play against maybe the only head coach in the NFL who would have the stones to onside kick it in the Super Bowl. Sucks.

    Garcon drop was obviously brutal.

    Manning pick 6 is painful to watch when you see Collie WIDE OPEN for a first down.

    To put it bluntly, it was just a hideous night.

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