Today we head to North Texas University, to put the enigmatic athletic forward Tony Mitchell under the scouting microscope. This is #6 in the 2013 draft analysis series, you can see the articles I've done so far on Gorgui Dieng, Alan Crabbe, Isaiah Canaan, Jeff Withey and Reggie Bullock elsewhere on this site.
Mitchell measures up very very well from a physical point of view, checking in at the NBA combine and 6'8 3/4", with a wingspan of 7'2 1/2". Weighing in already at 236lbs, Mitchell clearly has an NBA body and NBA level athleticism. Only 21 years old, born on April 7, 1992, Mitchell still has some room to improve and isn't necessarily a finished product.
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Offensively, Mitchell is somewhat caught in between positions. He seems to want to play like a perimeter wing "3" man in his heart of hearts, often drifting to the perimeter even though he really lacks the skills to play there. But inside as a "4" man, he hasn't really shown alot of toughness as an interior post player or a lot of high level skill. I think he best projects probably as a face up/mid post type 4 man who you can move around some depending on matchups....a little like Josh Smith is, except Mitchell is nowhere near as good as Smith, not even close.
Mitchell takes alot of mediocre to bad jump shots, and he misses most of them. Playing in the Sun Belt conference, Mitchell should have been able to post or get to the rim with relative ease, as not a night went by that he wasnt the most talented player on the floor. Yet, Mitchell seemed content to hoist tough contested jumpers with little regard to whether that was the proper thing to do.
His mechanics on his jumper arent awful, but they were inconsistent. More than bad mechanics though, Mitchell played uninspired and uninterested offensively. His shot selection was awful, and he seemed to favor doing whatever was easier to do and whatever would require less effort or chance of contact. I actually think he could be a relatively good face up jump shooter on open shots, but his judgment on when to shoot and when not to was pathetic.
As a driver, he showed some real weaknesses that belie what many feel his God given athleticism should allow him to do. Mitchell is weak with the basketball, losing his balance against the slightest of contact and becoming very turnover prone. "Great pass by Mitchell!" was clearly something never said on a North Texas radio broadcast, not totally because of selfishness, but because Mitchell is so weak with the ball that his focus was on getting the shot off without turning it over, not scanning the floor for open teammates. He was very much a "right foot-go left" type, preferring to drive to his left with his right foot going first (a crossover step). This predictablility made him easy to guard, and his lack of counter move led to a lot of spinning, off balance, ill advised jump shots.
Mitchell is a bad cutter who stands a lot offensively and surveys the action rather than move to an open area, and he screens people like the defense has a contagious disease. On ball screens, Mitchell either slips them way too early or stands so "skinny" and weak that the defense runs right through them, gaining North Texas nothing, and allowing his defender not have to help much off of him.
Mitchell should project as a good ballscreen/lob type of guy, but he will have to get over his allergic reaction to contact and physical play if he is to do that.
Another real weapon he should have but doesn't is an ability to out run opposing 4 men for early offense, as with his natural running gate and style being a rim runner should be an obvious strength to his game. However, as Mitchell tends to jog up the floor rather than sprint, it hasn't yet turned into that for him. In fact, Mitchell is much more likely to stop somewhere around the 3 point line, drift for a while, and then hoist an ill advised jumper rather than sprint the floor and get a dunk by running hard in early offense.
Essentially, Mitchell doesn't know how to play. I found him to be lazy, plays much slower than he measures out, and is soft and selfish.
As a post player, he has some promise but looks like that he hates being in there, where contact and physical play can happen. Mitchell recoils when defense gets rough with him, and can't seem to fight through contact to even get from one side of the lane to the other. He struggles to establish low post position, and looks like he hasn't been taught the fundamentals very well of how to use leverage before the catch. After a catch (which he didn't get as many of as he should have), he lacks any single go to move that he can rely on. Instead, he usually just fired up some version of a softer turnaround jumper which led more often than not to misses.
Mitchell is not a good offensive player, and doesn't project to be one in the NBA either in my opinion.
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As a rebounder, there is some hope, but I do view his numbers as very inflated relative to his actual performance.
Mitchell averaged 8.5 rebounds per game, which is a very respectable number. But, I saw a bunch of situations where I felt he got alot of "cheap" rebounds. Situations like missing his own shot that he should have finished the first time, then outleaping a much worse player for a putback. And a huge amount of times Mitchell would play incredibly horrible help defense, staying in rebounding areas hoping for misses instead of actually helping his teammates defensively as he should have. Clearly, Mitchell is a leaper and can get off the ground quickly and with burst. But keep in mind that he was a clearly superior athlete than all of his teammates and opponents, so it wasnt like he was rebounding in the same way that he will have to at the NBA level. If you refuse to hedge defensively on a ballscreen, stay back in front of the rim, and allow some kid in the Sun Belt who will sometime soon be working in an office building sometime soon shoot a jumper, then sky up and get a rebound when they miss over a bunch of future accountants, that doesnt exactly impress me.
He clearly has the required physical tools and outstanding length to be a good NBA rebounder, but I'm not sure I see the drive, determination, and toughness to make that happen. I see him getting rebounds he is supposed to get that require little to no effort, but those tough rebounds in traffic vs strong tough men........I don't see it. In other words, this is the type guy that people like Tyler Hansborough out rebound every night, just by hustling and playing hard nosed basketball.
I see the potential to be a decent rebounder, but that is about it. I wouldn't trust Mitchell to get big rebounds in crucial spots for me.
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Mitchell SHOULD/COULD be a dominant defender as an extra long 3 man or athletic quick 4. But, he won't be unless he changes his overall attitude and basketball priorities drastically. In college, Mitchell was a sieve.
Yes, he came over from the weakside and got some blocked shots. 2.7 blocks per game in college is nothing to sneeze at. In fact, I found Mitchell's timing to be extremely impressive, as he wasnt one of those guys who jumped wildly to block shots, instead he seemed to have a knack of jumping just high enough and at the right moment to reject/influence shots in the Sun Belt.
But defensively overall, Mitchell played with the motor of a rusted out Ford Pinto. Completely and totally reliant on his athleticism, Mitchell had little to no concept of a team defensive structure or in how to play defense against contact. At his best Mitchell was when he played the back middle of the North Texas 2-3 zone, that alloed him to roam freely and see the ball constantly. Way too often though, Mitchell would either rotate incorrectly, or totally stand up out of his stance and refuse to help versus drives past his teammates, allowing easy shots to be taken by the opponent. Essentially, I felt like watching him that he played about as SELFISHLY DEFENSIVELY as anyone I've broken down in the years I've done this for Pacersdigest.
Playing man to man, Mitchell rarely showed hard on screens, never bumped cutters, never contested a shot that he couldnt block, wouldnt close out hard on shooters, and way too often refused to help his teammates. He seemed to not be a guy who talks on defense (unlike our own Roy Hibbert, who in my report in him in college I noted that he was an extremely good verbal help defender, Mitchell looks like he has never spoken to his teammates defensively) and who basically wasn't bothered when North Texas opponents scored.
What was even worse than that on tape was watching Mitchell consistently not run the floor hard. If Mitchell didn't get the ball on offense, or if he took a shot and missed, or if he was simply pouting over the score of the game, way way too often Mitchell simply JOGS BACK DOWN THE FLOOR DEFENSIVELY. Yes, watching highlight tapes of Mitchell, you think this kid can play.....you see the blocked shots, you see the athleticism, you see the length, and you think this kid can help you defensively in the NBA. But in my view, a kid with that low of a motor can't be trusted against real men in the NBA.
Watching Mitchell jog back repeatedly on defense was a poor example of a leader and best player to set for his teammates, and I felt like that he drug his teammates down in what ended up being a disastrous season for the Mean Green. I know that the prevailing thought in the NBA among scouts is to blame the new coaches at North Texas, and that some executive or coach somewhere is thinking that they can motivate this guy and turn him around....I guarantee you somewhere somebody is cocky enough to believe they will be the guy who lights this man's pilot light. That is why at some point in a couple of weeks he will become a rich man.
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So what do we have in Tony Mitchell?
I believe we have an athletic speciman young player who has no clue how to play basketball, how to work, how to be a teammate, and how to be a winner. He has no real NBA position and plays with an extremely low level of toughness, professionalism, and motor. Despite the natural lengths and extreme athletic gifts he seems to possess, I wouldnt touch Mitchell personally with a 10 foot pole. I don't believe you win with guys like Mitchell in your building.
Mitchell's lack of effort, basketball passion, and athletic character offend my basketball sensibilities. I personally would have Mitchell off my board entirely, and not even have him as a choice to sign as an undrafted Free Agent. Of course he will be drafted somewhere, but I believe I can safely say that it will not be in Indiana. Which for Mitchell personally is a real shame, because this type of culture here is exactly what he needs......but even with the right kind of attitude, I still don't like his game all that well. I know others will disagree vehemently, and in fact my own is the absolute worst report I've read anywhere on Mitchell....but this is how I feel. A franchise wins with both high caliber talent and even higher caliber character, and I don't see either one in Mitchell, despite what every other draft analyst seems to think.
Indiana should, and I believe will, pass on Tony Mitchell come draft night.
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I have no idea where Mitchell ends up on draft night. I've heard him talked about in the mid teens by non NBA scouts, and I've heard it mentioned that his workouts are going extremely well. The Knicks are supposedly enamored with him after their workout with him at the pick following ours at #24. I hope that is true, but I suspect that it is all smoke.
I know I would hate to the team that guarantees a contract worth millions to this player, and I have to believe that I am not the only one who thinks that. There is one team that seems to like to take risks on players like this though, and that is the Houston Rockets. I think Daryl Morey picks Mitchell at pick #34 in the early 2nd round, substantially lower than he is currently projected to go.
Obviously I am out on a limb here with my very negative evaluation of Mitchell and that he will slip out of the first round. I might very well end up being wrong on both predictions, but as always, time will tell.
Current NBA comparable: A homeless destitute man's Tyrus Thomas
Former NBA comparable: A low character version of Maceo Baston.
As always, the above is just my opinion.
Tbird
Mitchell measures up very very well from a physical point of view, checking in at the NBA combine and 6'8 3/4", with a wingspan of 7'2 1/2". Weighing in already at 236lbs, Mitchell clearly has an NBA body and NBA level athleticism. Only 21 years old, born on April 7, 1992, Mitchell still has some room to improve and isn't necessarily a finished product.
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Offensively, Mitchell is somewhat caught in between positions. He seems to want to play like a perimeter wing "3" man in his heart of hearts, often drifting to the perimeter even though he really lacks the skills to play there. But inside as a "4" man, he hasn't really shown alot of toughness as an interior post player or a lot of high level skill. I think he best projects probably as a face up/mid post type 4 man who you can move around some depending on matchups....a little like Josh Smith is, except Mitchell is nowhere near as good as Smith, not even close.
Mitchell takes alot of mediocre to bad jump shots, and he misses most of them. Playing in the Sun Belt conference, Mitchell should have been able to post or get to the rim with relative ease, as not a night went by that he wasnt the most talented player on the floor. Yet, Mitchell seemed content to hoist tough contested jumpers with little regard to whether that was the proper thing to do.
His mechanics on his jumper arent awful, but they were inconsistent. More than bad mechanics though, Mitchell played uninspired and uninterested offensively. His shot selection was awful, and he seemed to favor doing whatever was easier to do and whatever would require less effort or chance of contact. I actually think he could be a relatively good face up jump shooter on open shots, but his judgment on when to shoot and when not to was pathetic.
As a driver, he showed some real weaknesses that belie what many feel his God given athleticism should allow him to do. Mitchell is weak with the basketball, losing his balance against the slightest of contact and becoming very turnover prone. "Great pass by Mitchell!" was clearly something never said on a North Texas radio broadcast, not totally because of selfishness, but because Mitchell is so weak with the ball that his focus was on getting the shot off without turning it over, not scanning the floor for open teammates. He was very much a "right foot-go left" type, preferring to drive to his left with his right foot going first (a crossover step). This predictablility made him easy to guard, and his lack of counter move led to a lot of spinning, off balance, ill advised jump shots.
Mitchell is a bad cutter who stands a lot offensively and surveys the action rather than move to an open area, and he screens people like the defense has a contagious disease. On ball screens, Mitchell either slips them way too early or stands so "skinny" and weak that the defense runs right through them, gaining North Texas nothing, and allowing his defender not have to help much off of him.
Mitchell should project as a good ballscreen/lob type of guy, but he will have to get over his allergic reaction to contact and physical play if he is to do that.
Another real weapon he should have but doesn't is an ability to out run opposing 4 men for early offense, as with his natural running gate and style being a rim runner should be an obvious strength to his game. However, as Mitchell tends to jog up the floor rather than sprint, it hasn't yet turned into that for him. In fact, Mitchell is much more likely to stop somewhere around the 3 point line, drift for a while, and then hoist an ill advised jumper rather than sprint the floor and get a dunk by running hard in early offense.
Essentially, Mitchell doesn't know how to play. I found him to be lazy, plays much slower than he measures out, and is soft and selfish.
As a post player, he has some promise but looks like that he hates being in there, where contact and physical play can happen. Mitchell recoils when defense gets rough with him, and can't seem to fight through contact to even get from one side of the lane to the other. He struggles to establish low post position, and looks like he hasn't been taught the fundamentals very well of how to use leverage before the catch. After a catch (which he didn't get as many of as he should have), he lacks any single go to move that he can rely on. Instead, he usually just fired up some version of a softer turnaround jumper which led more often than not to misses.
Mitchell is not a good offensive player, and doesn't project to be one in the NBA either in my opinion.
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As a rebounder, there is some hope, but I do view his numbers as very inflated relative to his actual performance.
Mitchell averaged 8.5 rebounds per game, which is a very respectable number. But, I saw a bunch of situations where I felt he got alot of "cheap" rebounds. Situations like missing his own shot that he should have finished the first time, then outleaping a much worse player for a putback. And a huge amount of times Mitchell would play incredibly horrible help defense, staying in rebounding areas hoping for misses instead of actually helping his teammates defensively as he should have. Clearly, Mitchell is a leaper and can get off the ground quickly and with burst. But keep in mind that he was a clearly superior athlete than all of his teammates and opponents, so it wasnt like he was rebounding in the same way that he will have to at the NBA level. If you refuse to hedge defensively on a ballscreen, stay back in front of the rim, and allow some kid in the Sun Belt who will sometime soon be working in an office building sometime soon shoot a jumper, then sky up and get a rebound when they miss over a bunch of future accountants, that doesnt exactly impress me.
He clearly has the required physical tools and outstanding length to be a good NBA rebounder, but I'm not sure I see the drive, determination, and toughness to make that happen. I see him getting rebounds he is supposed to get that require little to no effort, but those tough rebounds in traffic vs strong tough men........I don't see it. In other words, this is the type guy that people like Tyler Hansborough out rebound every night, just by hustling and playing hard nosed basketball.
I see the potential to be a decent rebounder, but that is about it. I wouldn't trust Mitchell to get big rebounds in crucial spots for me.
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Mitchell SHOULD/COULD be a dominant defender as an extra long 3 man or athletic quick 4. But, he won't be unless he changes his overall attitude and basketball priorities drastically. In college, Mitchell was a sieve.
Yes, he came over from the weakside and got some blocked shots. 2.7 blocks per game in college is nothing to sneeze at. In fact, I found Mitchell's timing to be extremely impressive, as he wasnt one of those guys who jumped wildly to block shots, instead he seemed to have a knack of jumping just high enough and at the right moment to reject/influence shots in the Sun Belt.
But defensively overall, Mitchell played with the motor of a rusted out Ford Pinto. Completely and totally reliant on his athleticism, Mitchell had little to no concept of a team defensive structure or in how to play defense against contact. At his best Mitchell was when he played the back middle of the North Texas 2-3 zone, that alloed him to roam freely and see the ball constantly. Way too often though, Mitchell would either rotate incorrectly, or totally stand up out of his stance and refuse to help versus drives past his teammates, allowing easy shots to be taken by the opponent. Essentially, I felt like watching him that he played about as SELFISHLY DEFENSIVELY as anyone I've broken down in the years I've done this for Pacersdigest.
Playing man to man, Mitchell rarely showed hard on screens, never bumped cutters, never contested a shot that he couldnt block, wouldnt close out hard on shooters, and way too often refused to help his teammates. He seemed to not be a guy who talks on defense (unlike our own Roy Hibbert, who in my report in him in college I noted that he was an extremely good verbal help defender, Mitchell looks like he has never spoken to his teammates defensively) and who basically wasn't bothered when North Texas opponents scored.
What was even worse than that on tape was watching Mitchell consistently not run the floor hard. If Mitchell didn't get the ball on offense, or if he took a shot and missed, or if he was simply pouting over the score of the game, way way too often Mitchell simply JOGS BACK DOWN THE FLOOR DEFENSIVELY. Yes, watching highlight tapes of Mitchell, you think this kid can play.....you see the blocked shots, you see the athleticism, you see the length, and you think this kid can help you defensively in the NBA. But in my view, a kid with that low of a motor can't be trusted against real men in the NBA.
Watching Mitchell jog back repeatedly on defense was a poor example of a leader and best player to set for his teammates, and I felt like that he drug his teammates down in what ended up being a disastrous season for the Mean Green. I know that the prevailing thought in the NBA among scouts is to blame the new coaches at North Texas, and that some executive or coach somewhere is thinking that they can motivate this guy and turn him around....I guarantee you somewhere somebody is cocky enough to believe they will be the guy who lights this man's pilot light. That is why at some point in a couple of weeks he will become a rich man.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So what do we have in Tony Mitchell?
I believe we have an athletic speciman young player who has no clue how to play basketball, how to work, how to be a teammate, and how to be a winner. He has no real NBA position and plays with an extremely low level of toughness, professionalism, and motor. Despite the natural lengths and extreme athletic gifts he seems to possess, I wouldnt touch Mitchell personally with a 10 foot pole. I don't believe you win with guys like Mitchell in your building.
Mitchell's lack of effort, basketball passion, and athletic character offend my basketball sensibilities. I personally would have Mitchell off my board entirely, and not even have him as a choice to sign as an undrafted Free Agent. Of course he will be drafted somewhere, but I believe I can safely say that it will not be in Indiana. Which for Mitchell personally is a real shame, because this type of culture here is exactly what he needs......but even with the right kind of attitude, I still don't like his game all that well. I know others will disagree vehemently, and in fact my own is the absolute worst report I've read anywhere on Mitchell....but this is how I feel. A franchise wins with both high caliber talent and even higher caliber character, and I don't see either one in Mitchell, despite what every other draft analyst seems to think.
Indiana should, and I believe will, pass on Tony Mitchell come draft night.
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I have no idea where Mitchell ends up on draft night. I've heard him talked about in the mid teens by non NBA scouts, and I've heard it mentioned that his workouts are going extremely well. The Knicks are supposedly enamored with him after their workout with him at the pick following ours at #24. I hope that is true, but I suspect that it is all smoke.
I know I would hate to the team that guarantees a contract worth millions to this player, and I have to believe that I am not the only one who thinks that. There is one team that seems to like to take risks on players like this though, and that is the Houston Rockets. I think Daryl Morey picks Mitchell at pick #34 in the early 2nd round, substantially lower than he is currently projected to go.
Obviously I am out on a limb here with my very negative evaluation of Mitchell and that he will slip out of the first round. I might very well end up being wrong on both predictions, but as always, time will tell.
Current NBA comparable: A homeless destitute man's Tyrus Thomas
Former NBA comparable: A low character version of Maceo Baston.
As always, the above is just my opinion.
Tbird
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