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Hello again everyone, and welcome to the first of many player profiles and previews for the 2013 NBA draft. As most of you know, I've done these previews for a few years now for PacersDigest, and you can find all of those profiles in the archives of this site. For all of those who recall my process this will be old hat, but for those of you who don't know, here are my methods in putting these profiles together:
1. I use only video from actual games. I don't use "youtube" clips or other highlighted packages.
2. Obviously, I have no access to team interviews conducted, or personality tests given, or any inside information from the Pacers.
3. I preview only players I have tape of to view, so I possibly won't be doing any previews of foreign players this year ( I am working on getting tape on one particular player), nor will I be doing any profiles of anyone else I couldn't obtain actual game footage of.
4. These profiles are totally "Pacer-Centric", so I won't publish any full length profiles of players we would seemingly have no possibility of obtaining, like Nerlens Noel or Victor Oladipo.
You can use your own judgment on whether you trust my scouting reports or not, obviously coaches and evaluators disagree about players all of the time and this will be no different. I've been wrong before just like everyone else has been, but I do take pride in the fact that I haven't been very often. It is very likely that I will upset some of you when I criticize a particular player you may think highly of.
With that said, I hope you enjoy these as we begin the draft process over the next few weeks!
First up under the Tbird microscope in 2013 is the National champion big man from the University of Louisville, Gorgui Dieng.
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Gorgui Dieng clearly has the size requirements to play the "5" position in today's NBA. Measuring out at 6'11, Dieng measured a wingspan of 7'3 1/2" at the NBA combine, and weighed in at 230lbs. This is clearly big enough to play center in the current NBA climate, and many center starved teams will be taking a strong look at his talents as we near draft night.For us, I will have some other things to say about his potential role as I see it later in this article. Born on January 18, 1990, Dieng will turn 24 before next season's All Star Break, so he is one of the oldest players I have ever done a profile for. Having said that, his basketball experience is still relatively low, as he only began playing the game at the age of 17, continuing a long line of big men from Senegal who have begun playing the game later in life.
When evaluating Dieng, you must start with his prodigious talents at the defensive end.
Dieng was a true rim protector at the collegiate level, and probably nowhere in the league is that skill valued as highly as we do here with the Pacers. One of the nation's best shotblockers, Dieng blocked right around 3 blocks per game as he played centerfield for a Louisville defensive scheme that pressured the ball all over the floor, and allowed Dieng to clean up their messes. In the Louisville 2-3 zone, Dieng played exactly where you would expect him to: right in the back-middle, surveying the offense and communicating with his teammates.
Despite the overall shotblocking numbers, I would not categorize Dieng as an "elite" shotblocker, but one rung below that. Elite shotblockers do 3 things in my scouting judgment: the block shots taken BY THEIR OWN MAN (Dieng got most of his as a weakside defender), they can block shots WITH BOTH HANDS (Dieng almost always blocked shots with his right hand, rarely his left) and the almost always block the shot but KEEP IT INBOUNDS (Dieng did do this pretty well). So, I wouldn't rate his as "elite" as a shotblocker, but he is very very good.
I would rate him as near elite as an overall post defender however.
Dieng is a beast at his size of being able to move his feet in a stance at his size. As a ballscreen defender, Louisville was able to "hedge" hard, "blitz", or "switch" with Dieng, even if that meant Dieng had to guard a ballhandler in open space. Now, I don't think Dieng will be able to switch onto Russell Westbrook or LeBron James or anything, but on a vast majority of NBA ballhandlers I think you would be ok having that option in your coaching bag of tricks if Dieng is on your roster. Dieng has great balance, moves his feet well, doesn't stand up in his second or 3rd slide, and has a very high defensive motor.
Dieng is a battler defensively in the low post. While often top level big guys will allow you to catch inside before they guard you, Dieng does not. He can front you with his excellent balance and nimble feet, and he isn't shy about being physical with you if you don't seal him off strongly. He is relentless inside in denying you the basketball if that is the scheme his team is employing, and will fight you for an entire possession no matter how many times the ball was reversed by the offense......this is a rare big man skill, as most bigs will fight once or twice but eventually give in and cede position, especially as they tire later in the game or possession.
I give the Louisville program a ton of credit here, because no team in the country does more cardio work and conditioning than do the Cardinals of Rick Pitino. Clearly, the athleticism gains and cardio/balance work done with Dieng over his college career improved him greatly, and credit the player himself for buying into all of the hard work the Louisville trainers no doubt put him through. Dieng was not a very good player when he arrived in Louisville, and he leaves a defensive beast and soon to be a rich man.
As a help defender, Dieng was the best defensive big man in the country. I already mentioned his superior footwork in sliding vs the dribbler, while in ballscreen help. What I didn't mention was his ability to come off of his own man and get steals, which he did quite often when teams tried to post up other people not guarded by Dieng. Now, occasionally he would gamble too much and not get there, which would leave his own man right by the rim unguarded, but for the most part Dieng took smart gambles that paid off for his team. The impressive thing to me was just the athleticism and balance at his size needed to be able to do that in the first place....not many men could athletically at his size make those kind of plays.
And let's not forget his length. With a giant wing span of 7'3 1/2 and a high motor, Dieng was a superior contestor of shots, particularly on the perimeter and mid post area. I loved his activity level and ability to get off the ground with the shooter, and even though he didn't block a ton of shots in this manner, he sure did alter a ton of shots as people had to change their releases just to shoot over him.
Dieng however does have defensive weaknesses, like most players do. First and foremost, he lacks strength with his lower base. This is much much more of a problem for him on the offensive end as I'll discuss below, but it still can be an issue. He compensates most of the time by being in great shape, fighting harder, and using his balance and quickness.....but occasionally, a really talented bigger player can just bury him behind them, then use leverage and strength to bully him under the rim. Dieng has to gain 20lbs somehow and do it in his lower core/hips/legs to reach his full potential.
And because he is such a prolific shotblocker and great help defender, Dieng will sometimes bite on shotfakes inside too often. Very capable most times of being able to just stay solid and contest the low post shot, occasionally a clever post guy can get Dieng into the air. That tendency, and a non stop motor and effort, occasionally gets Dieng in foul difficulty when he tries to do too much rather than just stay solid.
Lastly, due again his overall style of play, Dieng will often help too much and too often when there is no need, leaving him out of rebounding position and allowing stronger players to seal him off and/or get behind him.
Despite the defensive flaws I've pointed out however, Dieng clearly is an above average NBA defender with potential to fix the few flaws he has with greater lower body strength training and experience. Big men who can defend are highly highly valued.
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Rebounding to me is a great thing to study as a scout.
Anyone can look at the raw numbers....in this case Dieng averaged 9.4 rebounds in college in approx 31 minutes, which is better than the usual "rebound every 4 minutes played" standard I usually look at first 4 a big man. While I don't have any numbers to back up this claim at the moment, I think this number is inflated some by the quick pace that Louisville played, and by the fact that as the back man in their press, he often would have been the ONLY rebounder back for them if someone actually did break their pressure and try to score. Much like I thought Roy Hibbert's college rebound numbers were DEFLATED by the slow pace and role he played offensively for Georgetown years ago, I suspect that Dieng's are somewhat INFLATED.
That's not to say that I view Dieng as a bad rebounder, not at all........like the shotblocking earlier in this report, I would rank him a notch or 2 below "elite" however.
Dieng is more of a positional rebounder, in that he tends to hold his ground then react to where the ball goes instead of moving for it in the air. He rarely gets rebounds above the rim, instead most of his board work is done at or below the rim. He has good hands and gets all the rebounds he should get that are in his area, but rarely will he fly out of nowhere and get a rebound OUTSIDE HIS AREA.....like the elite rebounders will. He rebounds well right in front of the rim in the lane area, but isn't going to fly from one side of the lane to the other to get a board, nor do I see him chasing down a rebound from the "pocket" area to the short corner like the elite league leading rebound guys do. Those attributes, and the fact that he is "rangy" on defense means that to me, for his size, I think he is only an average defensive rebounding 5 man going forward. There will be a few bigs also who are extremely strong with their lower bodies that will be able to root him under the rim as well, again, adding the lower body strength and core work over the next few years will be big for him once he gets to the NBA.
His offensive rebounding skills to me are fascinating to talk about. At Louisville, their offensive rebounders are taught to THROW THE BALL BACK OUT for 3 point shooters almost 100% of the time, instead of trying to score themselves. The basketball sabermetrics guys all believe in this, as percentages show that the single most accurate 3 point shots are taken on offensive rebound kickouts. These numbers are indisputable....defenses are scrambled and out of position, and shooters can catch the ball on an "inside to out" pass with their feet set and shoulders square to the rim. I don't know the college percentage, but I believe that 3 point percentages are around 8%-12% better after an offensive rebound than in any other circumstance shooting the 3.....a percentage Rick Pitino surely knows and was really the first to actively figure out. Coach K at Duke is also a big proponent of this as well
However, the unintended consequence of wanting your bigs to constantly work hard for a rebound and then throw it back out to someone else is THAT YOUR BIGS QUIT TRYING TO HIT THE GLASS AS HARD SOMETIMES. I am sure they don't consciously do that, and I have no numbers to back it up, but my eyes tell me that it is true. And what I also seem to see is guys "tipping" a lot of balls more often in places like this than I see in other programs, getting their hands on balls but not really controlling them either.
Dieng lacks the power to go up super strong after a rebound and finish it with authority anyway, so having him throw it back out for a wide open college 3 point shot was no doubt the "sabermetrically" smart thing to do.....still, I wonder if his high motor would have gotten him more offensive rebounds if it wasn't such a big deal at Louisville to throw the ball back out immediately. It is a question that I am sure the Pacers number cruchers and stat analysis people are studying.
Overall, I project Dieng to be around the NBA Center average to slightly above in terms of rebounding. With greater strength in his lower body and his high motor I do think he can eventually be above the norm, and I do think he can be an excellent outlet passer for a team that is oriented to run a lot, or who has an extremely potent guard who likes push the ball....however, at this moment that is not the style for the Indiana Pacers.
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Offensively, I think Dieng is once again a fascinating player with lots of potential, albeit with one major weakness and a couple of minor ones.
First, the strengths:
Dieng is a really really high quality passer for a big man, much like Roy Hibbert was at Georgetown. In particularly, Dieng was a master of playing the high post for the Cardinals, playing there alot vs the myriad of zones the Cardinals faced this season. Dieng was able to make every pass you would want from the high post area.....he could get low and feed the low post on his side with the bounce, he could pass to the deep corners from there, and he could dribble once across the high post to get angles. He was really good at using his dribble even, and has some skill in making one or two dribble attack moves from the foul line/elbow areas. He has poise, and keeps the ball high. And even better, when he does pass the ball he hits shooters in the "pocket", instead of always throwing it too high or too low (like almost all of our current Pacers do from time to time).
While he didn't take very many attempts, the shots he did take as jump shots looked really good to me. His release was high, he looked poised in and confident in taking it, and it had good arc and good spin. I project Dieng to be a very effective high post to mid post/elbow area offensive player, though he was anchored to the block or was ballscreen setting most of the time in college. I would hope that, if I was on the staff of the team that drafted Dieng, that we could develop him into a guy who could make the baseline 15-18 foot jumper down the road, and possibly even stretch him beyond that range as he nears his 30's. I think he can clearly do that, he just didn't get to take that shot in the Louisville system.
As a low post "anchor" type player is where Dieng has major defenciencies currently. Basically, Dieng cannot post up with his back to the basket and score right now at anything near a high percentage of the time. His footwork with his back to the basket is REALLY BAD, BUT I BELIEVE HE CAN BE COACHED UP IN THIS AREA FAIRLY EASILY.
Dieng's problem is all about his first step with his lead foot.....or even better, where his lead foot is PRIOR to him catching the ball. Dieng's inexperience shows here to me, as he is really bad about not using his lower body/footwork TO GET LEVERAGE. His first step is usually a shuffle sideways, going nowhere, which gets him too upright in the post. Instead, Dieng needs to get his lead foot " OIL DRILLING" to the midpoint right between the defenders feet. Essentially, he needs to drop step his lead foot right into the "breadbasket" of the defender, so he can get leverage and throw his shoulder into the defense, then spin off of the contact.
IF he could learn to catch the post pass with his foot already between the feet of the defender, then he could easily face up and develop some counter moves off of that, such as a nice little fadeaway or even a drop step baseline into a jump hook. Perhaps no players in history had better post footwork than Mark Aguirre, Charles Barkley, and Akeem Olajuwon, and they all were masters at catching the ball with their feet in this type of position. Defensively Dieng is great at the dance steps of not allowing people to do that to him....but he needs to learn the dance steps inside to do it to others.
Obviously, he needs to add lower body strength in this regard too, but I think his low post problems are more lack of footwork being taught to him than a lack of raw power. I think it will be tough on him to ever post up guys bigger/stronger than he is, but I do believe that with time and good coaching he will be able to post up mismatches in the paint......and I do believe he can be taught back to the basket skills pretty quickly once the pro development guys get to work with him day after day.
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Dieng as a potential screener, I view him as above average in some areas of the floor, and below average in others.
-Along the baseline for shooters, I think he will be really really good. He is strong and willing and has good balance.
-As a downscreener from the elbows to wing areas away from the ball, I think he will be outstanding, because he has good speed and size and a high motor.
-As a guy running up from somewhere to set a ballscreen (which is much more common in the NBA than in college) I think will be ok in time as a pick/pop guy, and really good as a guy you can hit in the mid post area.....but he isnt going to be a guy you can lob it up to at the rim for dunks, like a Blake Griffin or Tyson Chandler in his prime. And I dont see alot of value in having him set side/screen rolls yet, but if he develops that face up game from that area of the floor then that could change.
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I think when you talk Indiana Pacers drafts and team philosophy, that you must talk character as well. Indiana is full of high character guys.... Granger, West, Hill, Hibbert, and George are all well thought of around the league as super high character guys, and so were recent draftees Tyler Hansborough, Orlando Johnson, and Miles Plumlee.
Dieng is apparently of that same ilk as well. Coming over from Senegal, Dieng didnt even begin playing the game until age 17. Growing up in the poorest of conditions, Dieng has been mentored by DeSagna Diop, another big man who played in the league a long time (although not well). Due to this, Dieng should have a firm grasp of what the NBA is like and what he can expect. He seems to be a well liked and well grounded teammate in college, and with hsi college coach sitting behind our bench some in the playoffs, I am sure our staff and personnel department will have a firm idea of the type of man and player that Dieng is and can be.
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So, what do we have in Gorgui Dieng?
In the worst case scenario, I think Dieng is a rim protecting, high character defensive minded backup center that provides defensive depth that is extremely valuable. We all saw how much worse our defense is when Roy Hibbert is out of the game, Dieng can solve that problem for teams by eventually being anear elite inside defender of his own. A nice back up center for cheap money for about 20 minutes a game....that is the worst case scenario in my view, and I think that is how 90% of the scouts and teams will view him.
HOWEVER, I HAVE A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT VIEW OF DIENG THAN MOST, IN TERMS OF HIS POTENTIAL.
This will be somewhat controversial, but I view Dieng as a really big "power 4" man more than a "5" if he is chosen by us. Granted, those of you who know me know that I have been looking for us to get an elusive "player X" (my term for a man who can play WITH Hibbert and ALONGSIDE Hibbert at the same time) for a long time.
I believe Dieng can develop into a player who can play beside Roy Hibbert on both ends of the floor SOME of the time, AND provide us with 16 minutes or so of backup center play....a key cog into a powerful potential 3 man inside rotation. To me, his ability to guard on the perimeter, his balance in moving his feet, his length, and his high motor gives him a chance to guard at a high level almost all "4" men in the league, and it gives him a clear size advantage to play inside offensively on the block some once he is taught how to play there better.
Offensively, I view his strengths to be very complementary of Roy Hibbert potentially. I think Dieng can make the the high post a real weapon for himself, as I love his ability to shoot that jump shot over smaller defenders and the ability he possesses to play high/low power post basketball with Hibbert long term. Our high/low game is such a weapon for us, but it died offensively whenever we subbed this year....I think Dieng can make that his offensive home early on and be a real weapon as a passer for us when either Hibbert or West is out of the game. (Obviously I assume West will return).
Worst case in drafting Dieng, you can get a backup center really cheap, develop him for a year behind Mahimni, then dump Mahimni to save cap space to a needy back up center type team next summer.
But my best case is I think very on point, and I believe in Dieng's ability to play the 4 position alongside Hibbert 15-18 minutes per game.....which is why I rate him higher than most draft evaluators probably do. If I were in charge on draft night, Dieng would be extremely high on my Pacers draft board. I think he fits extremely well on our roster for what we need going forward......on the other hand, probably a high quality young wing who can score and some sort of point guard are higher priorities. You'll have to wait until all the draft previews are complete before you get my official recommendation, but I can tell you that I am extremely high on Gorgui Dieng for our particular style and team philosophy.
Sadly for me, I don't think Dieng will actually make it to us on draft night. I view the Hawks as major players for Dieng, as well as the Chicago Bulls at pick #20. I even view Oklahoma City as a possibility. My guess is that Dieng is an Atlanta Hawk on draft night, but I have been wrong before.
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Past NBA comparison: John Salley
Current NBA comparison: Larry Sanders
Tbird
1. I use only video from actual games. I don't use "youtube" clips or other highlighted packages.
2. Obviously, I have no access to team interviews conducted, or personality tests given, or any inside information from the Pacers.
3. I preview only players I have tape of to view, so I possibly won't be doing any previews of foreign players this year ( I am working on getting tape on one particular player), nor will I be doing any profiles of anyone else I couldn't obtain actual game footage of.
4. These profiles are totally "Pacer-Centric", so I won't publish any full length profiles of players we would seemingly have no possibility of obtaining, like Nerlens Noel or Victor Oladipo.
You can use your own judgment on whether you trust my scouting reports or not, obviously coaches and evaluators disagree about players all of the time and this will be no different. I've been wrong before just like everyone else has been, but I do take pride in the fact that I haven't been very often. It is very likely that I will upset some of you when I criticize a particular player you may think highly of.
With that said, I hope you enjoy these as we begin the draft process over the next few weeks!
First up under the Tbird microscope in 2013 is the National champion big man from the University of Louisville, Gorgui Dieng.
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Gorgui Dieng clearly has the size requirements to play the "5" position in today's NBA. Measuring out at 6'11, Dieng measured a wingspan of 7'3 1/2" at the NBA combine, and weighed in at 230lbs. This is clearly big enough to play center in the current NBA climate, and many center starved teams will be taking a strong look at his talents as we near draft night.For us, I will have some other things to say about his potential role as I see it later in this article. Born on January 18, 1990, Dieng will turn 24 before next season's All Star Break, so he is one of the oldest players I have ever done a profile for. Having said that, his basketball experience is still relatively low, as he only began playing the game at the age of 17, continuing a long line of big men from Senegal who have begun playing the game later in life.
When evaluating Dieng, you must start with his prodigious talents at the defensive end.
Dieng was a true rim protector at the collegiate level, and probably nowhere in the league is that skill valued as highly as we do here with the Pacers. One of the nation's best shotblockers, Dieng blocked right around 3 blocks per game as he played centerfield for a Louisville defensive scheme that pressured the ball all over the floor, and allowed Dieng to clean up their messes. In the Louisville 2-3 zone, Dieng played exactly where you would expect him to: right in the back-middle, surveying the offense and communicating with his teammates.
Despite the overall shotblocking numbers, I would not categorize Dieng as an "elite" shotblocker, but one rung below that. Elite shotblockers do 3 things in my scouting judgment: the block shots taken BY THEIR OWN MAN (Dieng got most of his as a weakside defender), they can block shots WITH BOTH HANDS (Dieng almost always blocked shots with his right hand, rarely his left) and the almost always block the shot but KEEP IT INBOUNDS (Dieng did do this pretty well). So, I wouldn't rate his as "elite" as a shotblocker, but he is very very good.
I would rate him as near elite as an overall post defender however.
Dieng is a beast at his size of being able to move his feet in a stance at his size. As a ballscreen defender, Louisville was able to "hedge" hard, "blitz", or "switch" with Dieng, even if that meant Dieng had to guard a ballhandler in open space. Now, I don't think Dieng will be able to switch onto Russell Westbrook or LeBron James or anything, but on a vast majority of NBA ballhandlers I think you would be ok having that option in your coaching bag of tricks if Dieng is on your roster. Dieng has great balance, moves his feet well, doesn't stand up in his second or 3rd slide, and has a very high defensive motor.
Dieng is a battler defensively in the low post. While often top level big guys will allow you to catch inside before they guard you, Dieng does not. He can front you with his excellent balance and nimble feet, and he isn't shy about being physical with you if you don't seal him off strongly. He is relentless inside in denying you the basketball if that is the scheme his team is employing, and will fight you for an entire possession no matter how many times the ball was reversed by the offense......this is a rare big man skill, as most bigs will fight once or twice but eventually give in and cede position, especially as they tire later in the game or possession.
I give the Louisville program a ton of credit here, because no team in the country does more cardio work and conditioning than do the Cardinals of Rick Pitino. Clearly, the athleticism gains and cardio/balance work done with Dieng over his college career improved him greatly, and credit the player himself for buying into all of the hard work the Louisville trainers no doubt put him through. Dieng was not a very good player when he arrived in Louisville, and he leaves a defensive beast and soon to be a rich man.
As a help defender, Dieng was the best defensive big man in the country. I already mentioned his superior footwork in sliding vs the dribbler, while in ballscreen help. What I didn't mention was his ability to come off of his own man and get steals, which he did quite often when teams tried to post up other people not guarded by Dieng. Now, occasionally he would gamble too much and not get there, which would leave his own man right by the rim unguarded, but for the most part Dieng took smart gambles that paid off for his team. The impressive thing to me was just the athleticism and balance at his size needed to be able to do that in the first place....not many men could athletically at his size make those kind of plays.
And let's not forget his length. With a giant wing span of 7'3 1/2 and a high motor, Dieng was a superior contestor of shots, particularly on the perimeter and mid post area. I loved his activity level and ability to get off the ground with the shooter, and even though he didn't block a ton of shots in this manner, he sure did alter a ton of shots as people had to change their releases just to shoot over him.
Dieng however does have defensive weaknesses, like most players do. First and foremost, he lacks strength with his lower base. This is much much more of a problem for him on the offensive end as I'll discuss below, but it still can be an issue. He compensates most of the time by being in great shape, fighting harder, and using his balance and quickness.....but occasionally, a really talented bigger player can just bury him behind them, then use leverage and strength to bully him under the rim. Dieng has to gain 20lbs somehow and do it in his lower core/hips/legs to reach his full potential.
And because he is such a prolific shotblocker and great help defender, Dieng will sometimes bite on shotfakes inside too often. Very capable most times of being able to just stay solid and contest the low post shot, occasionally a clever post guy can get Dieng into the air. That tendency, and a non stop motor and effort, occasionally gets Dieng in foul difficulty when he tries to do too much rather than just stay solid.
Lastly, due again his overall style of play, Dieng will often help too much and too often when there is no need, leaving him out of rebounding position and allowing stronger players to seal him off and/or get behind him.
Despite the defensive flaws I've pointed out however, Dieng clearly is an above average NBA defender with potential to fix the few flaws he has with greater lower body strength training and experience. Big men who can defend are highly highly valued.
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Rebounding to me is a great thing to study as a scout.
Anyone can look at the raw numbers....in this case Dieng averaged 9.4 rebounds in college in approx 31 minutes, which is better than the usual "rebound every 4 minutes played" standard I usually look at first 4 a big man. While I don't have any numbers to back up this claim at the moment, I think this number is inflated some by the quick pace that Louisville played, and by the fact that as the back man in their press, he often would have been the ONLY rebounder back for them if someone actually did break their pressure and try to score. Much like I thought Roy Hibbert's college rebound numbers were DEFLATED by the slow pace and role he played offensively for Georgetown years ago, I suspect that Dieng's are somewhat INFLATED.
That's not to say that I view Dieng as a bad rebounder, not at all........like the shotblocking earlier in this report, I would rank him a notch or 2 below "elite" however.
Dieng is more of a positional rebounder, in that he tends to hold his ground then react to where the ball goes instead of moving for it in the air. He rarely gets rebounds above the rim, instead most of his board work is done at or below the rim. He has good hands and gets all the rebounds he should get that are in his area, but rarely will he fly out of nowhere and get a rebound OUTSIDE HIS AREA.....like the elite rebounders will. He rebounds well right in front of the rim in the lane area, but isn't going to fly from one side of the lane to the other to get a board, nor do I see him chasing down a rebound from the "pocket" area to the short corner like the elite league leading rebound guys do. Those attributes, and the fact that he is "rangy" on defense means that to me, for his size, I think he is only an average defensive rebounding 5 man going forward. There will be a few bigs also who are extremely strong with their lower bodies that will be able to root him under the rim as well, again, adding the lower body strength and core work over the next few years will be big for him once he gets to the NBA.
His offensive rebounding skills to me are fascinating to talk about. At Louisville, their offensive rebounders are taught to THROW THE BALL BACK OUT for 3 point shooters almost 100% of the time, instead of trying to score themselves. The basketball sabermetrics guys all believe in this, as percentages show that the single most accurate 3 point shots are taken on offensive rebound kickouts. These numbers are indisputable....defenses are scrambled and out of position, and shooters can catch the ball on an "inside to out" pass with their feet set and shoulders square to the rim. I don't know the college percentage, but I believe that 3 point percentages are around 8%-12% better after an offensive rebound than in any other circumstance shooting the 3.....a percentage Rick Pitino surely knows and was really the first to actively figure out. Coach K at Duke is also a big proponent of this as well
However, the unintended consequence of wanting your bigs to constantly work hard for a rebound and then throw it back out to someone else is THAT YOUR BIGS QUIT TRYING TO HIT THE GLASS AS HARD SOMETIMES. I am sure they don't consciously do that, and I have no numbers to back it up, but my eyes tell me that it is true. And what I also seem to see is guys "tipping" a lot of balls more often in places like this than I see in other programs, getting their hands on balls but not really controlling them either.
Dieng lacks the power to go up super strong after a rebound and finish it with authority anyway, so having him throw it back out for a wide open college 3 point shot was no doubt the "sabermetrically" smart thing to do.....still, I wonder if his high motor would have gotten him more offensive rebounds if it wasn't such a big deal at Louisville to throw the ball back out immediately. It is a question that I am sure the Pacers number cruchers and stat analysis people are studying.
Overall, I project Dieng to be around the NBA Center average to slightly above in terms of rebounding. With greater strength in his lower body and his high motor I do think he can eventually be above the norm, and I do think he can be an excellent outlet passer for a team that is oriented to run a lot, or who has an extremely potent guard who likes push the ball....however, at this moment that is not the style for the Indiana Pacers.
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Offensively, I think Dieng is once again a fascinating player with lots of potential, albeit with one major weakness and a couple of minor ones.
First, the strengths:
Dieng is a really really high quality passer for a big man, much like Roy Hibbert was at Georgetown. In particularly, Dieng was a master of playing the high post for the Cardinals, playing there alot vs the myriad of zones the Cardinals faced this season. Dieng was able to make every pass you would want from the high post area.....he could get low and feed the low post on his side with the bounce, he could pass to the deep corners from there, and he could dribble once across the high post to get angles. He was really good at using his dribble even, and has some skill in making one or two dribble attack moves from the foul line/elbow areas. He has poise, and keeps the ball high. And even better, when he does pass the ball he hits shooters in the "pocket", instead of always throwing it too high or too low (like almost all of our current Pacers do from time to time).
While he didn't take very many attempts, the shots he did take as jump shots looked really good to me. His release was high, he looked poised in and confident in taking it, and it had good arc and good spin. I project Dieng to be a very effective high post to mid post/elbow area offensive player, though he was anchored to the block or was ballscreen setting most of the time in college. I would hope that, if I was on the staff of the team that drafted Dieng, that we could develop him into a guy who could make the baseline 15-18 foot jumper down the road, and possibly even stretch him beyond that range as he nears his 30's. I think he can clearly do that, he just didn't get to take that shot in the Louisville system.
As a low post "anchor" type player is where Dieng has major defenciencies currently. Basically, Dieng cannot post up with his back to the basket and score right now at anything near a high percentage of the time. His footwork with his back to the basket is REALLY BAD, BUT I BELIEVE HE CAN BE COACHED UP IN THIS AREA FAIRLY EASILY.
Dieng's problem is all about his first step with his lead foot.....or even better, where his lead foot is PRIOR to him catching the ball. Dieng's inexperience shows here to me, as he is really bad about not using his lower body/footwork TO GET LEVERAGE. His first step is usually a shuffle sideways, going nowhere, which gets him too upright in the post. Instead, Dieng needs to get his lead foot " OIL DRILLING" to the midpoint right between the defenders feet. Essentially, he needs to drop step his lead foot right into the "breadbasket" of the defender, so he can get leverage and throw his shoulder into the defense, then spin off of the contact.
IF he could learn to catch the post pass with his foot already between the feet of the defender, then he could easily face up and develop some counter moves off of that, such as a nice little fadeaway or even a drop step baseline into a jump hook. Perhaps no players in history had better post footwork than Mark Aguirre, Charles Barkley, and Akeem Olajuwon, and they all were masters at catching the ball with their feet in this type of position. Defensively Dieng is great at the dance steps of not allowing people to do that to him....but he needs to learn the dance steps inside to do it to others.
Obviously, he needs to add lower body strength in this regard too, but I think his low post problems are more lack of footwork being taught to him than a lack of raw power. I think it will be tough on him to ever post up guys bigger/stronger than he is, but I do believe that with time and good coaching he will be able to post up mismatches in the paint......and I do believe he can be taught back to the basket skills pretty quickly once the pro development guys get to work with him day after day.
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Dieng as a potential screener, I view him as above average in some areas of the floor, and below average in others.
-Along the baseline for shooters, I think he will be really really good. He is strong and willing and has good balance.
-As a downscreener from the elbows to wing areas away from the ball, I think he will be outstanding, because he has good speed and size and a high motor.
-As a guy running up from somewhere to set a ballscreen (which is much more common in the NBA than in college) I think will be ok in time as a pick/pop guy, and really good as a guy you can hit in the mid post area.....but he isnt going to be a guy you can lob it up to at the rim for dunks, like a Blake Griffin or Tyson Chandler in his prime. And I dont see alot of value in having him set side/screen rolls yet, but if he develops that face up game from that area of the floor then that could change.
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I think when you talk Indiana Pacers drafts and team philosophy, that you must talk character as well. Indiana is full of high character guys.... Granger, West, Hill, Hibbert, and George are all well thought of around the league as super high character guys, and so were recent draftees Tyler Hansborough, Orlando Johnson, and Miles Plumlee.
Dieng is apparently of that same ilk as well. Coming over from Senegal, Dieng didnt even begin playing the game until age 17. Growing up in the poorest of conditions, Dieng has been mentored by DeSagna Diop, another big man who played in the league a long time (although not well). Due to this, Dieng should have a firm grasp of what the NBA is like and what he can expect. He seems to be a well liked and well grounded teammate in college, and with hsi college coach sitting behind our bench some in the playoffs, I am sure our staff and personnel department will have a firm idea of the type of man and player that Dieng is and can be.
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So, what do we have in Gorgui Dieng?
In the worst case scenario, I think Dieng is a rim protecting, high character defensive minded backup center that provides defensive depth that is extremely valuable. We all saw how much worse our defense is when Roy Hibbert is out of the game, Dieng can solve that problem for teams by eventually being anear elite inside defender of his own. A nice back up center for cheap money for about 20 minutes a game....that is the worst case scenario in my view, and I think that is how 90% of the scouts and teams will view him.
HOWEVER, I HAVE A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT VIEW OF DIENG THAN MOST, IN TERMS OF HIS POTENTIAL.
This will be somewhat controversial, but I view Dieng as a really big "power 4" man more than a "5" if he is chosen by us. Granted, those of you who know me know that I have been looking for us to get an elusive "player X" (my term for a man who can play WITH Hibbert and ALONGSIDE Hibbert at the same time) for a long time.
I believe Dieng can develop into a player who can play beside Roy Hibbert on both ends of the floor SOME of the time, AND provide us with 16 minutes or so of backup center play....a key cog into a powerful potential 3 man inside rotation. To me, his ability to guard on the perimeter, his balance in moving his feet, his length, and his high motor gives him a chance to guard at a high level almost all "4" men in the league, and it gives him a clear size advantage to play inside offensively on the block some once he is taught how to play there better.
Offensively, I view his strengths to be very complementary of Roy Hibbert potentially. I think Dieng can make the the high post a real weapon for himself, as I love his ability to shoot that jump shot over smaller defenders and the ability he possesses to play high/low power post basketball with Hibbert long term. Our high/low game is such a weapon for us, but it died offensively whenever we subbed this year....I think Dieng can make that his offensive home early on and be a real weapon as a passer for us when either Hibbert or West is out of the game. (Obviously I assume West will return).
Worst case in drafting Dieng, you can get a backup center really cheap, develop him for a year behind Mahimni, then dump Mahimni to save cap space to a needy back up center type team next summer.
But my best case is I think very on point, and I believe in Dieng's ability to play the 4 position alongside Hibbert 15-18 minutes per game.....which is why I rate him higher than most draft evaluators probably do. If I were in charge on draft night, Dieng would be extremely high on my Pacers draft board. I think he fits extremely well on our roster for what we need going forward......on the other hand, probably a high quality young wing who can score and some sort of point guard are higher priorities. You'll have to wait until all the draft previews are complete before you get my official recommendation, but I can tell you that I am extremely high on Gorgui Dieng for our particular style and team philosophy.
Sadly for me, I don't think Dieng will actually make it to us on draft night. I view the Hawks as major players for Dieng, as well as the Chicago Bulls at pick #20. I even view Oklahoma City as a possibility. My guess is that Dieng is an Atlanta Hawk on draft night, but I have been wrong before.
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Past NBA comparison: John Salley
Current NBA comparison: Larry Sanders
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