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WITNESS THIS!
-VS-
Game Time Start: 8:30 PM ET
Where: AmericanAirlines Arena, Miami, FL
Officials: S. Foster, B. Kennedy, T. Washington, J. Goble
Television:
Radio: WFNI 1070 AM / WAXY 790 AM, WRTO 98.3 FM / ESPN Radio
Media Notes: Indiana Notes, Miami Notes
NBA Feeds: NBA Audio League Pass (available free to NBA All-Access members)
REMINDER: Per PD policy, please do not share a link to, describe how to search for, request a link to, or request a PM about streaming video of a NBA game that is not coming directly through the NBA. Not even in a "wink-wink, nudge-nudge, know-what-I-mean" round-about sort of way. Thank you
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 PACERS Danny Granger - left knee surgery (out) HEAT Mario Chalmers - deep shoulder bruise (probable) |
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Brett Koremenos: In Defense of Frank Vogel While there are countless plays that helped decide Game 1, the debate will surround Frank Vogel’s decision to leave Roy Hibbert out on the last play of overtime, a choice that was second-guessed almost right as game-winning layup by LeBron James cleared the net. Most of the criticism was based off a simple knee-jerk reaction from the result of the play — a James finish at the rim without Hibbert, the Pacers defensive anchor and paint- protector, anywhere to be found on the floor. Had Hibbert been on the court, or so the theory goes, he could have harassed James into altering his shot to the point of a miss, thus allowing Indiana to escape with a crucial Game 1 victory. The reality of the situation is that not only would Hibbert’s presence be unlikely to change anything, it would have probably made Miami’s job of getting a clean look for a game- winning shot far easier. In order not to repeat myself in two different places, here is what I wrote on Grantland about how time, score and situation dictate strategy in the waning moments of close games. With 2.2 seconds on the clock and Miami inbounding on the side, Hibbert’s value as a rim-protector was virtually useless. Nearly every time in that situation, the opponent’s play will call for some type of quick catch-and- shoot as any type of somewhat competent defense will deny the opportunity for a drive, and the scant time left on the clock makes any pass — other than the initial one from the inbounder — a dicey proposition. Any good coach, which Vogel is, is going to realize that the opposing team is very likely to run several off-the-ball screening combinations before the ball is even inbounded. The best way to counter that from a defensive perspective is to switch everything, because switching defenses are typically only bested by teams isolating against mismatches or slipping their screens. There wasn’t enough time for Miami to do the former, and the latter can be stopped with a potent combination of execution and communication. Now, with that in mind, let’s take a look at Miami’s final possession. We’ll break down exactly what actually did happen, while also projecting the challenges Indiana would have faced should Hibbert have been on the floor.  Here is the initial positioning before the play begins. As the ball is being taken out on the side, David West (who plays a key role in the outcome) is guarding the inbounder, Shane Battier. Paul George is on James, Tyler Hansbrough covers Chris Bosh, Sam Young guards Ray Allen, and George Hill is checking Norris Cole. (Notice that Dwyane Wade, like Hibbert, isn’t on the court because he fouled out.)  Allen starts everything off by moving to set a backscreen on Bosh to trigger a lob. Because Vogel has players on the floor that can easily switch everything, Hansbrough and Young thwart an action that would typically be quite difficult to defend. Had Hibbert been in the game, he would have had one of two choices: switch onto Allen or navigate a backscreen (remember that Roy is not the most nimble dude around) with little to no help from Young, who presumably would be very worried about the sweet-shooting Allen releasing from the screen and getting a wide-open shot. This is exactly why Hibbert wasn’t in the game. Erik Spoelstra knew that Hibbert would have a hard time getting through screens so he drew up a play with a first option that involved both his best shooter (Allen) screening for the player he presumed would be guarded by Hibbert (Bosh).  After setting the screen, Allen loops around James toward the left corner as Bosh floats into the right short corner. Take note of West’s positioning on Battier. Instead of trying to make it incredibly difficult for Battier to target James, West is shading toward the cutting Allen, taking away a situation that not only has a much lower probability for producing a clean look, but allows for an infinitely easier entry pass into James. This is also the point where....CONTINUE READING AT 8p9s |
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| Brian Windhorst: George vs. LeBron - NBA's next great rivalry Paul George will never forget that moment in 2009 when, as a skinny 19-year-old, he found himself guarding the reigning NBA Most Valuable Player in a pickup game. Every year, LeBron James hosts the top high school players in the country at a Nike- sponsored camp. Many top college players are also there as “counselors.” In reality, it’s a recruitment fest for college coaches and a chance for Nike to develop ties with talent they one day may try to hire as endorsers. One of the highlights every year, both for the few spectators allowed in and certainly the young men themselves, is when James suits up and takes on the teenagers in pickup games. It’s common that he’ll bring some NBA friends to those games including, at times, fellow superstar Chris Paul. It was in one of these moments that George ended up not only fulfilling a dream by sharing the court with James but actually drawing the defensive assignment against him. After a good freshman season at Fresno State, George was invited to the camp and once there was given the wave over to the court where James was playing. “I like challenges and it was a challenge,” George said. “It was my first time playing against someone of his nature. It was fun. I took a lot away from it.” There was no way either of them realized back then that this was going to be the first of many showdowns. And it will indeed be many because, even if it may not be getting the proper attention now, James versus George is almost assured to be the newest great rivalry in the NBA. At age 28 and in his prime after winning his fourth MVP, James isn’t going anywhere. At age 23 off his first All-Star season and his first appearance on the All-NBA team, neither is George. They are already playing their second playoff series against each other and their teams both have aspirations of being back playing deep into the playoffs for the foreseeable future. In Wednesday’s Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals, they traded off making huge plays for their teams in the fourth quarter and overtime. George had a brilliant three- point play driving right through James, then followed it up with a clutch 3-pointer over him at the end of regulation that forced overtime. James got him back by securing a crucial rebound in overtime by outleaping George. Then, in one of the biggest plays yet in the postseason, James burned George on the game’s final play by driving past him to the rim for the game-winning layup at the buzzer. George had taken a bad angle and James crushed the error, leaving George up thinking about the mistake until after 4 a.m. As satisfying as their Game 1 dueling performances were -- James had 30 points and George 27 -- it was just the preamble. Both in this series and in what figures to be years to come. They are already two of the best perimeter defenders in the league and they play the same position. That means they’re going to end up spending lots of time guarding each other in pressure situations in important games. “He’s going to be a great one,” James said. “I thought he had some unbelievable talent back [in 2009] when I met him. He went to a school that no one really paid attention to. But I’m one of those guys who stays up late at night and watches those games. I knew him.” James got the better of George...CONTINUE READING AT HEAT INDEX |
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| Ian Levy: Raindrops Keep Falling For the past 36 hours, criticism has been raining down on Frank Vogel and his decision to keep Roy Hibbert off the floor for the two final defensive possessions of Wednesday night’s loss to the Heat. That rain of criticism has also sprouted a veritable forest of Vogel defenders, arguing that the ability to switch everything on those possessions was imperative and thus necessitated gluing Hibbert to the bench. I’m assuming that anyone who finds their way to Hardwood Paroxysm early on a Friday morning already knows that both possessions resulted in layups for LeBron, securing their one point margin of victory. I’m also assuming that you’ve already read at least a handful of various opinions falling on both sides of the issue. The argument about whether Vogel properly evaluated the situation, weighed the variables and made the correct tactical decision is irreparably influenced by the results. Even in such a simple and brief situation, there were a hundred different scenarios that could have manifested, leaving the Pacers’ lead intact. If any of those had actually happened, criticism of Vogel’s decision would been rendered almost entirely moot. In that context it’s a little unfair that he’s under the microscope because Paul George overplayed LeBron so badly on the catch and that Sam Young volunteered no resistance to his layup attempt. If Hibbert had been on the floor he very well may have been unable to prevent a basket. LeBron had an angle, a head of steam and all the prerequisite finishing ability to lay that one in, regardless of who was in front of, or beside him. Even if Hibbert had been able to get his body between LeBron and the basket, dissuading him from a shot, he could have easily dumped it off to Bosh for 12-footer. Here’s the rub, those two outcomes are exactly what the Pacers’ defense is built on. If there’s going to be a shot at the rim, they’ll make it difficult. But if they can force you to take a mid-range jumper they’re even happier. But that’s neither here nor there. Evaluating the situation in either direction seems defensible to me, although the ultimate outcome lends more credence to the argument for keeping Hibbert on the floor. I think arguing this point misses the main issue – I’m not sure Vogel should have been deciding based on the exact confines of this situation. If that statement feels ludicrous to read, trust me, it feels just as ludicrous to type. By looking at that scenario and making a decision on just what lay in front of him, Vogel forced the Pacers away from their principles. Not their micro X’s-and-O’s principles, but their macro ‘this-is-how-we-do-business’ principles. All season long the Pacers’ defense has been playing the percentages. They make opponents to take tough shots and they live with the results. They survive miraculous makes because they know that in the long run the percentages will settle in their favor. However he evaluated the X’s-and-O’s, Vogel’s option to adjust for the Heat went counter to how the Pacers have approached nearly every opponent all season long. It may be somewhat obtuse and short-sighted for me to suggest ignoring the very real demands of a specific situation in pursuit of higher, over-arching ideals. But that’s precisely what...CONTINUE READING AT HARDWOOD PAROXYSM |
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Kirk Goldsberry: CourtVision - Roy Hibbert, the Protector Pacers coach Frank Vogel’s decision to sit Roy Hibbert for the last defensive possession of Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals was perhaps the most infamous substitution in NBA playoff history. Immediately after LeBron James’s left-handed layup in overtime ended that amazing game, the hoops Twittersphere began second-guessing Vogel’s late -game tactics; many were quick to criticize his final lineup and that gaping, Hibbert- shaped hole in the restricted area. The Heat needed two points in two seconds, a tall task for any basketball team. Fortunately for Miami, it had LeBron James on the roster, and the most efficient shot in the entire NBA this season was a LeBron James close-range shot. During the regular season, James made a staggering 72 percent of his 637 close-range attempts. If Miami could find some way to get James a shot near the basket, it would have a decent chance of winning the game.  That's exactly what Miami did, and the game-winning shot looked a lot like the exact kind of shot that Hibbert is paid max money to stop, something James is probably aware of. Indiana's fifth-year center is one of the best rim protectors on the planet, and one of a select few human beings who can effectively discourage and disrupt the most ferocious interior scorers in the NBA. At the very least, the presence of Hibbert near the basket could have deterred or disrupted a close-range buzzer-beater. Just ask Carmelo. When Indiana signed Hibbert to a max deal last summer, many NBA observers questioned the decision. From a statistical point of view, Hibbert’s numbers seemed more ordinary than elite. Beyond the statistics, he lacked the Q Score that usually goes along with the league’s highest-paid superstars. But here we are 10 months later and Hibbert has his team in the NBA’s final four, and he is a major reason for Indiana's reputation as one of the best defenses in the league. For those who value both sides of the basketball court, he has more than proven his worth. In our SportsCenter culture, which loves to watch and rewatch dunks, corner 3s, and buzzer-beaters, it’s easy to distort basketball value. When it comes to assessing on- court performance, a vast majority of influential basketball actions aren't compatible with either highlights or box scores. Things like deflected passes, altered shots, prevented shots, perfect defensive rotations, and impeccable screens go largely unnoticed by the masses, undocumented by the highlight shows, and undermeasured by even the nerdiest basketball bookkeepers. As a result, our spreadsheets are missing a bunch of meaningful columns, and in turn even our most advanced player evaluations are incomplete. The inability to justify Hibbert’s contract with our current stats says more about our current stats than it does about Hibbert’s value. I talked with Hibbert about interior defense on Thursday, the day after Indiana’s heartbreaking Game 1 loss in Miami. He told me he finds that blocked shots — the stat that most of us cite when discussing players like him — tell only part of the story. Hibbert thinks he influences more than just the shots he blocks: “There are a lot of shots that I don’t block, but I change shots, and obviously people don’t take that into account. It might not show up in the box score, but people around my team know what I bring.” Blocked shots are easy to detect and convenient to count, but they reveal only so much about a defensive performance. Hibbert had five blocks in Game 6 of the Knicks series, but what does that actually tell us? On a literal level, his hands interrupted the flight of five field goal attempts. So what? Aside from that insane block of Anthony, how many other shots did he prevent from even happening? How many possessions did he change? Surely, his presence influenced more than five shots during the game, but it’s that “5” in the box score that serves as the quantification for defensive contribution. This season the Pacers defense, with Hibbert as its anchor, held opponents to 96.6 points per 100 possessions, the lowest mark in the league. It’s no coincidence that it also protected the basket better than anybody. Indiana was the only team whose opponents missed more close-range shots than they made. On average, Indiana's opponents shot just 49 percent within 8 feet of the basket, well below the league average of 56 percent. A lot of this has to do with Hibbert. Using emerging types of performance data, we can evaluate interior defense in new ways. Player-tracking systems, like the SportVU system currently installed in 15 NBA arenas, enable a much richer perspective than the conventional mode of simply summing up disparate event types like blocked shots. While Hibbert finished third in blocks per game this season, averaging 2.5, an analysis of his defense using SportVU data reveals that his influence is far more profound. Hibbert significantly reduces his opponents' overall scoring efficiency on a nightly basis. I evaluated a set of thousands of NBA close-range shots in which an NBA big man was protecting the basket. These were shots from the 2012-13 regular season in which a qualifying interior defender was within 5 feet of the rim and also within 5 feet of the shot location. In such cases, the opponents made 48 percent of their shots. When Hibbert was protecting the basket, however, the number dropped to 38 percent. Only one player in the NBA reduced close-range shooting efficiency more than Hibbert; of course, that was LARRY SANDERS!, who held opponents to a ghastly 32 percent. For context, both Marc Gasol and Tyson Chandler — the last two winners of the NBA Defensive Player of the Year Award — held opponents to a respectable 44 percent.   When Hibbert is protecting the basket, opponents’ close-range shots go in about as much as an average NBA midrange shot. This is incredible. If we’re not factoring in this kind of precipitous drop in opponents’ scoring efficiency when Hibbert is protecting the rim (which we're not), then we’re not doing a good job assessing his impact or value as an NBA player. Hibbert told me that since entering the NBA he’s become more disciplined: “When I was a rookie, I tried to block everything. I led the league in fouls per minute. Since then I’ve learned verticality, and that’s one thing that helps me both protect the paint and stay in the game as well.” Earlier in the season...CONTINUE READING AT GRANTLAND |
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| Dan Devine: Shane Battier and Norris Cole go below the belt on Pacers The ending of Game 1 probably left quite a number of Indiana Pacers fans feeling like they'd been on the business end of a low blow. Well, at least they had a couple of frontcourt stars to share the pain — namely, center Roy Hibbert (thanks to Miami Heat forward Shane Battier): ... and power forward David West (thanks to Heat guard Norris Cole): Credit Heat coach Erik Spoelstra for recognizing a play that worked early in the game, then circling back to it later...CONTINUE READING AT BALL DON'T LIE |
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PACERS Mike Wells @MikeWellsNBA Jared Wade @8pts9secs Tim Donahue @TimDonahue8p9s Tom Lewis @indycornrows Ian Levy @HickoryHigh Miss Bumptious @missbumptious |
HEAT Brian Windhorst @windhorstESPN Tom Haberstroh @tomhaberstroh Ira Winderman @iraheatbeat Ethan J. Skolnick @EthanJSkolnick Surya Fernandez @SuryaHeatNBA Joseph Goodman @JoeGoodmanJr |
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