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Thread: 3/10/2013 Game Thread #63: Pacers Vs. Heat

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    Default 3/10/2013 Game Thread #63: Pacers Vs. Heat

    WITNESS THIS!



    -VS-



    Game Time Start: 6:00 PM ET
    Where: AmericanAirlines Arena, Miami, FL
    Officials: D. Crawford, M. Boland, D. Collins

    Media Notes: Indiana Notes, Miami Notes
    Television: FOX Sports Indiana / Sun Sports / NBA TV
    Radio: WFNI 1070 AM / WAXY 790 AM
    NBA Feeds:

    REMINDER: Per PD policy, please do not share a link to, describe how to search for, request a link to, or request a PM about streaming video of a NBA game that is not coming directly through the NBA. Not even in a "wink-wink, nudge-nudge, know-what-I-mean" round-about sort of way. Thank you


    Season Records: (W-L)
    39-23
    Away: 14-16
    East: 26-13
    46-14
    Home: 23-7
    East: 22-9
    Upcoming Games:
    Mar 13
    Mar 15
    Mar 16
    Mar 18
    vs
    vs
    at
    at
    7:00pm
    7:00pm
    7:30pm
    7:00pm

    Projected Starting Lineup:
    HIBBERT
    WEST
    GEORGE
    STEPHENSON
    HILL
    Projected Starting Lineup:
    BOSH
    DJANGO
    JAMES
    WADE
    CHALMERS



    PACERS
    Danny Granger - sore knee (out)



    HEAT
    None


    Perpetually Disappointing Trader Joe Minimally Relevant Video:


    Semi-Relevant Video:



    Heat Index:
    3-on-3 Preview: Pacers at Heat

    In another installment of the Heat Index's 3-on-3 series, our writers give their takes
    on the storylines before the Heat face the Pacers on Sunday (6 p.m. ET).


    1. Fact or Fiction: The Pacers are the biggest threat to the Heat’s repeat bid.

    Tom Haberstroh: Fiction. In the East? Probably. But the Thunder, the Grizzlies, the
    Clippers and the Spurs would probably give the Heat more trouble than the Pacers.
    The Pacers defense might be the stingiest of the group, but I'm skeptical of the
    offensive firepower.

    Michael Wallace: Fiction. The Pacers are the second-biggest threat -- and only if they
    get reliable perimeter shooting. I believe a healthy Spurs team is the Heat's biggest
    potential threat. They have an efficient, attacking point guard, a big man who's
    effective on both ends and floor spacers who knock down threes. And I didn't even
    mention Gregg Popovich.

    Brian Windhorst: Fiction. I think the Pacers play the Heat with more edge than any
    other team in the East. Yes, even more than the Celtics. There's genuine animosity
    there and it manifests itself in the games. That said, I just don't believe the Pacers
    are a bigger threat than the Spurs, Thunder or perhaps even the Clippers.


    3. Fact or Fiction: The Heat’s streak will still be intact after Sunday.

    Haberstroh: Fact. This is the last obstacle that LeBron James has to conquer this
    regular season, and I'm learning not to doubt him at this point. He's shooting over
    60 percent on this 17-gamer, which is outright baffling for a perimeter player.

    Wallace: Fact. The regular-season series will end with the Pacers holding a 2-1
    edge and both teams having held serve at home. What does that mean in the
    bigger picture going into the playoffs? Absolutely nothing. Regardless of Sunday's
    outcome, Indiana is confident it can beat the Heat. Miami is confident the Pacers
    haven't quite...CONTINUE READING AT HEAT INDEX


    Hickory High:
    Ian Levy: Team Defense - Product and Process

    On his college basketball blog, Ken Pomeroy has been arguing, for quite some time, that
    a more descriptive measure of a team’s three-point defense is opponent attempts as
    opposed to opponent 3PT%
    . While his commentary has focused on three-point shooting
    the same point holds true, to a certain degree, with shots inside the arc. As first it may
    seem counter-intuitive for the most accurate description of how well a team defends
    certain areas of the the floor not to be field goal percentage. But if we talk the idea
    through it quickly seems less radical.

    Although it may not feel like it at times, NBA players take good shots. In the vast majority
    of cases, if a shot has little or no chance to go in, an NBA player won’t take it unless the
    game situation somehow dictates that this is the best option. There are of course,
    stunningly obvious counter-examples – see Smith, J.R. – but when we applaud teams that
    take good shots, or chastise a player for poor ones, we are splitting hairs and ignoring the
    countless impossible and improbable shots that they passed up. In that context we can
    comfortably say that often, the best defended shots are the ones where the defense
    allowed such low-percentage openings that the offense recognized it wasn’t in their best
    interest to take them.

    This idea represents a big and often overlooked measure of quality defense. We look at
    shooting percentages to evaluate defense, but that often offers precious little distinction.
    Looking at 386 team seasons, going back to 2000-2001, we find the average 3PT% to be
    35.5%. The average for the top 38 teams from that time span was 38.3%. The average
    for the bottom 38 teams was 32.6%. That means the top and bottom 10% of teams
    were separated by just 5.7 percentage points. The other 310 teams from the last 13
    seasons were separated by less than 5.7 percentage points in 3PT%. Another way we
    can demonstrate this is with variance, a statistical measure of how spread out the
    values are in a given data set. Over the past thirteen years the variance in team 3PT%
    has been 0.0003. The variance in the percentage of a team’s field goal attempts that
    are three-pointers is 0.0008, nearly four times the variation. There is a lot of
    difference in the frequency with which teams shot three-pointers, but not nearly as
    much difference in their accuracy.

    This is a huge lesson for both offenses and defenses. Even if you are an average shooting
    team, you can make a huge difference for your offense just by taking good shots. The
    same thing is true defensively – you may only be able to depress an opponent’s shooting
    percentages so much, but you can force them to take difficult and inefficient shots. You
    may not be able to keep a team from shooting 40.0% on mid-range jumpers, but if
    you’ve kept your opponent away from the rim and left those mid-range jumpers as the
    only option, chances are you’ve done your job.

    Last week I shared some statistical analysis I did with my shot-selection metric, Expected
    Points Per Shot (XPPS), estimating that about 19.4% of the variation in Offensive Rating
    can be explained by shot-selection. Using a variation on the technique from that post,
    borrowed from Evan Zamir, we can illustrate exactly how much of a difference controlling
    an opponent’s shot selection makes. We know from that analysis that TO%, ORB%, XPPS
    and Shot-Making Difference explain 97% of Offensive Rating, and in the inverse,
    Defensive Rating. From that regression analysis we also know that those factors explain
    efficiency with this equation: ORTG or DRTG = (XPPS * 88.55655) + (Shot-Making
    Difference * 84.41452) + (ORB% * 48.4174) + (TO% * -128.14) + 15.22669.

    The first thing we do is create an imaginary team that is completely average with respect
    to each of those variables above – ORB%, TO%, XPPS and Shot-Making Difference. This
    completely average imaginary team would have a DRTG of 102.83. From here we can,
    one at a time, manipulate each variable, measuring the change in DRTG. What I did was
    begin by looking at FG% from each area of the floor. One at a time, I reduced the FG%
    from each area by one standard deviation, leaving the others at league average,
    measuring the change on Shot-Making Difference and the resulting Defensive Rating. I
    then did the same thing for the percentage of shot attempts from each area of the floor,
    measuring the change in XPPS and the resulting Defensive Rating. When I reduced the
    percentage of shot attempts from an area, I needed to replace those shot attempts in
    another area of the floor to make sure I still had 100% represented. By that I mean if
    I reduced the percentage of attempts that came at the rim, I had to redistribute that
    percentage of attempts to the other areas of the floor. I did this, not equally, but by
    using the relative percentages of the remaining areas. Here were the results:


    In the analysis that follows I’m going to repeatedly refer to controlling attempts and
    controlling accuracy. With each mention there is the implication that the last 13 years of
    NBA data provides an accurate representation of minimums, maximums and averages.
    Obviously, if you could force an opponent to miss every single corner-three attempt,
    accuracy would be the most important factor. But we must assume that teams are
    largely bound by the historical patterns which set our baseline expectations.

    A move of one standard deviation in each area is roughly equivalent to going from
    league average to the top or bottom five in each category. From the results we see
    that the biggest difference a team defense can make is trips to the free throw line as
    a percentage of their opponents’ scoring opportunities. The second biggest impact is to
    reduce your opponents’ shooting percentages on shots at the rim. The third biggest
    impact has to do with the percentage of opponent’s shot attempts that come from the
    mid-range, and requires a little explanation.

    To keep my method consistent...CONTINUE READING AT HICKORY HIGH



    140 Characters of (Non-PD) Coverage


    Pacers
    Mike Wells @MikeWellsNBA
    Jared Wade @8pts9secs
    Tim Donahue @TimDonahue8p9s
    Tom Lewis @indycornrows


    Heat
    Brian Windhorst @windhorstESPN
    Tom Haberstroh @tomhaberstroh
    Ira Winderman @iraheatbeat
    Joseph Goodman @miamiheraldheat
    This is the darkest timeline.

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    Default Re: 3/10/2013 Game Thread #63: Pacers Vs. Heat

    I'm hearing that Roy Hibbert, Paul George, and Lance Stephenson are out for the first quarter due to foul trouble. See you in the 2nd, fellas!!

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    Default Re: 3/10/2013 Game Thread #63: Pacers Vs. Heat



    Those damn chippy Pacers!
    Super Bowl XLI Champions
    2000 Eastern Conference Champions





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    Default Re: 3/10/2013 Game Thread #63: Pacers Vs. Heat

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Helmet View Post
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    Those damn chippy Pacers!
    That one still make my blood boil!

    "Freedom is nothing else but a chance to be better." - Albert Camus

    "Appreciation is a wonderful thing. It makes what is excellent in others belong to us as well." - Voltaire

    Michael Pina, Red94: "There are so many different ways the Pacers can beat you. They have an All-Star scoring threat, imposing figures on the front line, steady point guard play, and most importantly, a defense that'll choke the life out of just about every offense that crosses its path."

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    Default Re: 3/10/2013 Game Thread #63: Pacers Vs. Heat

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Helmet View Post
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    Those damn chippy Pacers!
    How did you get this footage? I thought the NBA scrubbed all knowledge of this from the annals of history!

  10. #6

    Default Re: 3/10/2013 Game Thread #63: Pacers Vs. Heat

    Miami is playing Playoff ball, I don't wanna hear otherwise...I have a feeling they are shooting for foul calls alot in this game.

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    Default Re: 3/10/2013 Game Thread #63: Pacers Vs. Heat

    BEAT THE HEAT!!

    GRANGER!! FOR THE WIN.............. IT'S GOOD!!!!!

  13. #8

    Default Re: 3/10/2013 Game Thread #63: Pacers Vs. Heat

    Wow.

    Achilles heel of Hibbert is he cant really guard shooting PF/C's.

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    Default Re: 3/10/2013 Game Thread #63: Pacers Vs. Heat

    Quote Originally Posted by The Future View Post
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    Wow.

    Achilles heel of Hibbert is he cant really guard shooting PF/C's.
    It's not simply a limitation of Hibbert. Our defense is designed to give up mid-range shots. We have the #1 D in the paint and the #1 D out beyond the 3 pt. line. You have to give SOMETHING up. Most nights, giving up the mid-range J is going to be a winner.

    Of course, we've got to get those rebounds when we force the miss!
    "Freedom is nothing else but a chance to be better." - Albert Camus

    "Appreciation is a wonderful thing. It makes what is excellent in others belong to us as well." - Voltaire

    Michael Pina, Red94: "There are so many different ways the Pacers can beat you. They have an All-Star scoring threat, imposing figures on the front line, steady point guard play, and most importantly, a defense that'll choke the life out of just about every offense that crosses its path."

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    Default Re: 3/10/2013 Game Thread #63: Pacers Vs. Heat

    Where's the foul?!

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    Default Re: 3/10/2013 Game Thread #63: Pacers Vs. Heat

    Yeah, that was a foul on Lance.

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    Default Re: 3/10/2013 Game Thread #63: Pacers Vs. Heat

    Quote Originally Posted by AesopRockOn View Post
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    Yeah, that was a foul on Lance.
    Given the # of phantom calls that LeDecision will get tonight....I'll take it.
    Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

    This is David West, he is the Honey Badger, West just doesn't give a *****....he's pretty bad *ss cuz he has no regard for any other Player or Team whatsoever.

  19. #13

    Default Re: 3/10/2013 Game Thread #63: Pacers Vs. Heat

    BULL!

  20. #14

    Default Re: 3/10/2013 Game Thread #63: Pacers Vs. Heat

    Turn it up PG!

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    Default Re: 3/10/2013 Game Thread #63: Pacers Vs. Heat

    I hope West destroys Django.

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    Default Re: 3/10/2013 Game Thread #63: Pacers Vs. Heat

    Is the game on at 3pm EST or PST?
    Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

    This is David West, he is the Honey Badger, West just doesn't give a *****....he's pretty bad *ss cuz he has no regard for any other Player or Team whatsoever.

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    Default Re: 3/10/2013 Game Thread #63: Pacers Vs. Heat

    Anyone know who their using as the feed? For NBA TV

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    Default Re: 3/10/2013 Game Thread #63: Pacers Vs. Heat

    Quote Originally Posted by ThA HoyA View Post
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    Anyone know who their using as the feed? For NBA TV
    Probably Heat feed since it's in Miami.

    Hip-Hop ,Guitar & Martial ArtsEnthusiast
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    Default Re: 3/10/2013 Game Thread #63: Pacers Vs. Heat

    Is the game on NBATV now? I set the recording to record at 12:30pm PST and it says that the game is some DLeague game.
    Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

    This is David West, he is the Honey Badger, West just doesn't give a *****....he's pretty bad *ss cuz he has no regard for any other Player or Team whatsoever.

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    Default Re: 3/10/2013 Game Thread #63: Pacers Vs. Heat

    6pm est I think
    "Danny Granger is one of the top players in the league. To move Danny, you better get a lot back." - Larry Bird

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    Get well PG! DGPR's Avatar
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    Default Re: 3/10/2013 Game Thread #63: Pacers Vs. Heat

    Ill be watching the FSN feed so I don't have to listen to *** kissing all night long.
    "I've got an idea--an idea so smart that my head would explode if I even began to know what I'm talking about." - Peter Griffin

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    Default Re: 3/10/2013 Game Thread #63: Pacers Vs. Heat



    Read my Pacers.com Guest Blog:
    "Area 55 Conquers Staples Center"

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    Default Re: 3/10/2013 Game Thread #63: Pacers Vs. Heat


    Now just don't play like crap Ian

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    Default Re: 3/10/2013 Game Thread #63: Pacers Vs. Heat

    Win or lose, I suspect Lance is going to entertain tonight. I would love it if he got DWade up in the air and drove his shoulder into the ribs...and we heard a very loud crack. ...just kidding...;<)

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    Default Re: 3/10/2013 Game Thread #63: Pacers Vs. Heat

    I can see PG going at Lebron tonight and West will power inside early
    "We want Miami"

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