I truly hope Bosh plays this time around, assuming the Pacers are able to beat more physical teams prior to playing the Heat. If he does, the Pacers should win, and probably handily.
Now, that aside, I agree that Bosh playing may be to our advantage this year for the reasons you detail. I am not sure it will be as big of a factor as you do though, because it's not as if Bosh lives down low - he often drifts out to the mid-range.
Last edited by gummy; 03-02-2013 at 02:29 AM.
"Freedom is nothing else but a chance to be better." - Albert Camus
"Appreciation is a wonderful thing. It makes what is excellent in others belong to us as well." - Voltaire
"Everyone's values are defined by what they will tolerate when it is done to others." - William Greider
I don't think Bosh helps them or hurts them. What he brings to the table, he takes away by taking more touches away from LeBron and DWade who are a couple levels above him. He tends to get them out of their rhythm rather than helping them.
The Heat are most dangerous with the ball in LeBron James hands and with DWade darting around...along with the role players shooting spot up threes or driving into the paint. The key is to defend LeBron and his passing lanes while helping with DWade. But with Bosh out there, I think guarding the Heat becomes a little easier.
Kravitz talks basketball. I stop listening.
He has no read for the game, often doesn't follow it closely, and is always 3 days behind the story. This is not Curt Cavin or Robin Miller talking about racing.
His use of the colon: excessive.
Well thanks you SOBs, I was reading responses for the spinoff discussion and got lured into reading some due to a WTF? response to some quotes.
And I see the following as why they can't win IN THE PLAYOFFS
Gerald, as other mentioned, not in the rotation now, let alone the playoffs.I still donít trust D.J. Augustin, scoreless Thursday, who spent the first part of the season in the tank.
I still donít trust Tyler Hansbrough, also scoreless Thursday, who hasnít grown his offensive game.
I still donít know what theyíre going to get from Stephenson if heís asked to adjust to life as an alpha dog off the bench.
And I know what Iím going to get from Gerald Green, which is absolutely nothing.
DJ is going to get 5 minutes per game or maybe less and is the equivalent of BK saying he still doesn't trust Norris Cole.
Tyler just had a couple of games with 0 FGMs while the team rolled along. His minutes are reduced already and he's virtually a non-factor come playoff time. Tyler is going to be as important as Pittman was to the Heat last year...if you get something then it's a bonus, but mostly he's holding space for West to rest a bit.
And of all the things to worry about the dumbest, by far, is Lance's reaction to coming off the bench and being the alpha dog. Lance WILL NOT BE ALONE on the court, there will ALWAYS BE 2 STARTERS WITH HIM IN THE PLAYOFFS. And more importantly, Lance's strength is being an initiator and alpha dog. I think he'd be better as a 6th man this season, except for the fact that he'd be waiting on DJ or Gerald to step up their game.
Lance isn't NOT BENEFITING FROM STARTING. In fact you'll note that typically in the first 4-5 minutes of the game he's a non-factor while they work off of Paul, West, Hill and Roy.
Lance is benefiting from playing with better players. And in the playoffs your 6th man is going to be playing mostly with the starters. If anything a good portion of us would just forego having DJ play at all and let Lance pick up the time with Hill on the bench, especially given the nature of Hill's game. Of Hill, Lance and DJ, it is DJ that doesn't fit, not Lance. Hill and Lance are bigger, both are combos playing PG thanks to handles and need. Both run PnR to get their shot or a basic return pass.
Lance will get 25-30 mpg in the playoffs. He'll be great because his athleticism and energy are perfect for "wild card" plays.
Ian will get minutes. OJ will get more minutes than DJ. Tyler will get minutes reduced from what he's getting now, other than unfortunate circumstances demanding he play.
DJ will be emergency only or 3PA guy. Sam might get minutes as defensive needs guy.
The Pacers can beat the Heat because they have the more talented starting 5. If anything the irony is that the Heat have the better bench and it's helping them in the regular season. It's the Pacers who can't wait for the playoffs when it all becomes about your first 7 and mostly your starters.
If Danny continues his current progress then the Pacers become the odds-on favorites to make the Finals in my book, simply due to matchups. They will be a good bet because the popularity of the Heat will skew the betting lines. I would expect the sharps to be all over the Pacers, at least with the point spreads they will be getting.
Now anything can happen before then. If a plane falls on Paul's head then things change. We are talking about how it appears headed at the moment. And coming off a Raptors measuring stick that compares the team now to where the team was, I think the message was clear that they are drastically improved.
I realize that Danny and Paul are not Pippen and Jordan. But the comparison to them falls on them both being SG/SF long wings who can both defend and can both be primary scorers. How did the Bulls use them? One would stay out with the bench to lead it, then the other guy would come in and take his place for a bit, and then you'd have all the starters back. You never saw minutes without at least one of them out there.
Also I heard Vogel's response to Bob's article was...
(to clarify, S86 was being sarcastic in response which I enjoyed)
I love when people jump on one factor as a causality due to correlation, especially where there's only about 50 other major factors in play. Paul is in year 3, but his improvement is because of no Granger rather than the normal development pace every quality player goes through. West is in no way better simply by being another year removed from his injury recovery. Vogel isn't learning to coach and develop strategy in what is not even his 3rd season. Having a normal summer instead of a strike season had no effect.
Oh, and best of all the Pacers record IS NOT BETTER THAN LAST YEAR. They were .636 for last year with* Granger (including his cold shooting start), and right now AFTER the TOR win (ie, it was worse following the Clips loss) they are at .627. And if this is all about Danny's return then you CAN COUNT the 3-1 record since Danny came back.
* actually last year they were 1-3 when DG didn't play, so not .636 "with" Granger
So last year and this year
Pacers record without Danny - .593 (35-24)
Pacers record with Danny - .667 (44-22)
If you are going to make a point based on stats, make sure they are true first.
edit - don't even try to play the "I said starting" card because it ain't gonna help
41-21 last year with Danny as starter, .661, leaving out the 3-1 from this year off the bench. Still far better than the .603 without him "starting"
Last edited by Naptown_Seth; 03-02-2013 at 05:55 PM.
I believe the Pacers are and will be a harder team to beat with Lance and Paul in the starting lineup, and most likely finishing lineup, than Paul and Granger. I like the team that way due to the defensive pressure they can exert as well as the balance they bring between defense and offense.
I see that lineup more as a contender to beat the Heat in the playoffs while I see last year's lineup more as a pretender to do it. Then again, hindsight is 20-20 and this team still has no book on them about facing the Heat in the playoffs... unlike last year's team with Granger and Paul starting. But the truth is, last year when the Heat decided to start playing we had no answer. So it's a little bit of known versus the unknown plus what my eyes have shown me during this season versus last season.
Nuntius was right for a while. I was wrong for a while. But ultimately I was right and Frank Vogel has been let go.
"A player who makes a team great is more valuable than a great player. Losing yourself in the group, for the good of the group, thatís teamwork."
Edit: BTW, as raw as his game remains, Lance has the talent level to help the Pacers advance past the Heat. He, Hill, Paul, Roy and David are all very good.
Last edited by BlueNGold; 03-05-2013 at 08:21 PM.
Not sure if I buy that. I mean how do you really judge Lebron's talent.
If you just rate the ten starters (5 for each team) 1-10. So lets say
Lebron is 10
Wade is 9
Paul George is 8
West is 7
Bosh is 6
Roy is 5
Hill is 4
Lance is 3
Chalmers is 2
Haslem is 1.
So you add up the numbers. Pacers - 27 Heat - 28. Even if you do it that way the heat have more talent. Plus Lebron isn't just 10% better than Wade and 20% better than Paul George, he is probaby 40 and 50% better.
I think the Heat have a more talented starting 5. Lebron and 5 stiffs would be more talented than half the NBA teams.
I don't think we've got very good shot against the Heat in a 7 game series, but Delonte West is not the answer.
"I had to take her down like Chris Brown."
LeBron can be a million times more talented if you want to say so, but they only use him 28% of the time, and Wade 27% of the time. When the vast majority of your talent is used up in two players, and that accounts for 55% of your team's usage, I think there's a certain amount of diminishing returns, which is why the gap is narrower in reality than it would appear on paper.
I know you can argue the details of such a stat, but even just going by the eye test and intuition you know teams never just run every single play for their top guy to get a shot or make a play. Not even the 2000 Lakers did that with Shaq. In a team game, those less-talented guys are going to take more shots than for all practical purposes they probably should, and that plays to our advantage. As does the fact that they have inferior talents guarding our superior talent at other positions. Their power forward position, for example, is so vulnerable that even Tyler Hansbrough is a threat to score in the post on them. Let alone David West. They can't handle Roy when Roy isn't shooting himself in the foot (which is not to say this matchup is a given, I understand), and Chalmers isn't going to slow down Hill whenever George Hill gets hot. Sprinkle in 48 minutes of length protecting the rim that we could not do last year with Lou, and you see why this isn't such an obvious matchup as it looks at first glance.
It's not a matter of who has the better paper roster, it's how it all works when you put them all on an NBA floor. When you do, Miami is still the better team until proven otherwise. It's just not nearly as huge of a gap as people like to think, in my opinion. Especially over the course of 48 minutes. The time the gap is widest is late in a close game when a top talent just 'has it going' and it's almost impossible to stop them. Although arguably there are ways of attacking that, too, but nonetheless it's a huge advantage, as we saw with Chris Paul last week.
Then again, if you put the first 42 minutes to good use and give yourself a cushion, it may not matter...