Granger is gone in the off-season..problem solved
To me the team needs West as the 1B guy with Paul, and watching West's defense the last month (some monster help blocks last night) he doesn't look like a guy slowing down, so he and Paul are MUST SIGNS. If Lance is breaking out too then obviously it's going to push out Danny simply because they don't have enough money.
I like Roy's defensive impact but to be honest I think I'd rather have Danny with that money and a lesser center for cheaper. People forget what an impact player Danny has been due to the fresh, new smell of Paul. Having to see Danny go just as this team digs its way out, all because of the Roy deal...just brutal.
Personally I'd love to see them keep the big 6 - adding Lance to the mix - and just go ultra cheap with the rest of the roster. Clearly the Pacers would like to move Green's contract at this point (note his benching is not the simple DJ temp thing) and they need more from Ian than they saw last night (he's been up and down, should be good long term).
Sam might not his sub $1m deal but it sure does give him job security (ironic in light of odd roster gimmick they had to use). If you could pad out a team with Young type of deals then you could afford to keep that 6 intact and under the lux tax.
I'm just still really worried about the backup 1 and 4 spots next year. I don't expect Tyler to be kept, we won't pick up his option because we'll need the money to re-sign West, and despite his shortcomings I expect him to have a number of suitors and by not picking up his option he's free to go wherever. Asking one of our rookies next year to fill one of those spots is pretty greedy given how late we'll be drafting. Capable guys can obviously be found on cheap and reasonable deals, but it still has to happen.
Tyler's RFA, we don't have a team option for him. If you substitute "qualifying offer" for "option" though, I agree with you. I think Tyler stays only if we can sign him to a cheapish $3-4m deal.
That's what I'm talking about, I don't expect a QO to be made. I don't think that means he's definitely gone, but we're going to give up his RFA status to get a West deal done, which only makes sense.
This is where I think Danny gets moved over the summer, some complicated 3 team type deal. Even if Danny isn't ever able to get back to 100% it's not like he'll never be able to play again or something. A good, quality player on a big expiring deal, I think Danny'll have a pretty good bit of value over the summer given the new tax ramifications.Yeah. We hope to find cheap capable bench guys, sure, but given how our signings have gone this year (Green and Augustin), who's to say we'll have better luck next season? Even worse, we'll have even less of a budget next year than this. We're pretty much restricted to splitting our MLE for both backup PF and backup PG spots, unless we find a way to trade Green or maybe use Hans in a S&T.
I'd like to agree, but I'm not sure I do. Look around the league, a good bench big costs $4m+ easily, and a good bench scorer like Crawford or Mayo is making $5m at least. Doing it your way would put a huge load on the starters. Getting a contributor like Sam for cheap isn't an everyday occurrence - a team is lucky to get a single guy like that in a season, IMO. But your plan calls for the Pacers to find 2-3 guys like that every season. And we can't even keep the same guys every year, because the capable guys will find better offers elsewhere.
I'm not a fan of this idea, but when it comes time to make tough financial decisions... yeah I think the Pacers will consider moving Roy too. In 2014-15, Roy will almost certainly be making the most money, and C's are still scarce enough that he'll have good trade value, I think. What's more, the Pacers arguably have a plan B in place by signing Mahinmi to a long contract.
Tough, tough decisions are coming. I'm still leaning towards Granger being moved, but there's a good case for Hibbert as well.
As much as I like that top six what happens with a weak bench when they are constantly in foul trouble midway through the second quarter of every playoff game against the Heat/Bulls/Thunder (insert any team with mega star(s) here)?
Quality depth is the only reasonable answer to the "no marketable star that is protected by the NBA" issue. Dealing Granger in the off season or the Simons paying the luxary tax (not happening) is the only reasonable way the franchise gets there.
How long have you guys been pacer fans? Donnie Walsh has wanted David West since David West was a rookie. Every single year we have heard or read pacers interested in David West. Donnie will do everything he can to Keep David
I know that i've been guilty of jumping to some homeristic viewpoints over the last year that I get killed over... Like, the Pacers holding out on the Blazers and forcing them to drop their offer to Roy so they won't get marketed out. Comparing Lance's game to LeBron, and most lately, considering them as one of the leagues most talented overall teams. Last night is an example of the latest Kool-Aid i'm drinking.
Seth, I agree... I think we have to find a way to rid ourselves of Green's contract and keep that core of 6. We are in the fortunate situation (with the contracts coming up) to re-sign and keep that core of 6 around for the next 3 years... We could fill the roster with league rookies and league minimum specialists, like Young on Defense and Plumlee as a rebounder.
Stick those guys in an offense with Lance, OJ and Mahinmi and you've got a well rounded 14 million Dollar 2nd team, that won't (Hurt) the team in games... We could make a run that would bide us time to get West and Danny to lesser retirement contracts and roles. If West will take 9, Danny will take 7, and Lance takes 6 on their next deals we would just make it under the Luxury Tax after filling out the roster and giving PG his 14 after next year.
At this point, a college "system" mentality is possible, because you know what you have out of the guys in your line-up over the next 3 years... You DRAFT your specialists...
"Ok, we need a guy who can be our 2nd SF in the game and we need him to be the best wing defender available in the draft."
"Who is the BEST Rebounder in college available at #25 that we can bring off the bench at PF, and just gobble up rebounds."
Sign West to a contract close to where he is now and keep Tyler only if he's less then 3 mil. If we're going to pay Tyler more we might as well just give him the qualifying offer for 1 year but we won't. The following season keep Granger with a paycut to about where West is now and give PG the max. We're still at 58 mil for our starters. That leaves us 12-14 mil for the bench depending on where the LT is at that point. It's tight but it could be done. We'll need to keep our picks moving forward though if we hope to keep a bench at that price. We could not afford Tyler, Ian and Lance on the bench so at least one would have to go possibly 2. I really don't think Lance will get more then 3-4 mil once he's a free agent but that still might be out of our price range. Giving Green a 3 year deal was a huge mistake when you look at how tight things are going to be for us.
If we give West and Granger both frontloaded deals we can use our space under the tax to get their yearly wages down to workable levels by the time we have to re-sign George and Lance. We don't have to lose somebody, and we don't have to underpay somebody to make it work.
See, I don't think West taking $9m or Danny taking $7m is going to happen. I'm not even sure $6m is enough for Lance if he continues his current rate of progress.
If West starts it off next summer by telling DW and KP, hey, I don't care about market rate, I'm going to take a paycut after a career year just to keep this team together, then ok maybe there's a chance that the salary situation will go as you say. But I wouldn't hold my breath.
Also, Granger, George, and Stephenson all need new deals on the same year, so no frontloading tricks possible with Granger. Maybe we can do something with West, like a contract that goes $13m-$12m-$11m, but that still likely means tax in 2015 and 2016.
Really the only way it's going to work is if the Pacers commit to paying luxury tax. Bear in mind that OKC, a more successful franchise with more to play for, decided against even getting close to the lux tax.
It seems obvious DG is getting moved UNLESS he offers up a much lower salary number. PG is younger and without recent injury, plus he seems to be overall a better player. Danny is a lifer Pacer in my heart, no matter where he goes, but he's about to become a luxury the team can't afford. DG or at least his agent will work the market and I'd think he can still get 12m.
But if Danny is talking 9m...if Lance is only seeing 6-7m. It starts to get interesting.
As for "puts pressure on the starters", that's already happening despite spending $7m on DJ/Green. Both have played so poor that the team did turn to rookies currently playing at just above D-League level, no offense to the potential of OJ.
So my approach is "I KNOW what I get for Danny's money, but clearly what I get for $7m FA money can be worse than a 2nd round player". Take the safer bet and spend the cash on the starters and Lance since they are proven quantities.
If you trade Danny for salary/picks and spend some of that money on another DJ/Green pickup then it's going to be virtually wasted.
Bottom line, can anyone say the team would be significantly worse in the W-L this year if the Pacers had not signed DJ or Green (and no replacement either)? If anything OJ might have had PT to develop more and the team would have less 3pt misses and doorman PG defense on the PnR.
Obviously, i'm being optimistic... That is the only way it can get done. West is going to dictate the direction of the roster. If we have to pay him upwards of 12-14, then Danny gets moved. There is NO WAY we can keep Danny and Lance past next season if West gets paid like that.
DWest is priority #1, Lance #2, Danny Maybe #3...
A scrub like Taj Gibson, DeJuan Blair, etc.
Winning teams win not because they outspend teams because there is a cap and some of the teams above the cap aren't even good. Winning teams make smarter deals and use their cap space on better per dollar players.
We tried to go deep bench for years and it didn't really pan out. That was the whole Pacers "advantage" over the Heat, remember. But come playoffs it was actually the Pacers starters that were the strong point.
Would we best be served by picking signing Tyler to a QO and then trading him for assets?
You have to give credit to the Bulls FO for being able to draft near the end of the 1st rd and get quality players like Gibson at #26 in 09 and Butler at #30 in 011. Normally, I'd rather have a top 1-6 in the 2nd round than 26-30 in the 1st. There will be players who will be good players available plus "normally" they are given unguaranteed contracts.
Question? At what price/salary does DWest become unsignable for the Pacers?