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Thread: 12/18/2012 Game Thread #25: Pacers Vs. Bucks

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    Default 12/18/2012 Game Thread #25: Pacers Vs. Bucks

    I'VE HAD IT WITH
    THESE MOTHERBUCKING
    DEER ON THIS
    MOTHERBUCKING PLANE!


    -VS-



    Game Time Start: 8:00 PM ET
    Where: BMO Harris Bradley Center, Milwaukee, WI
    Officials: D. Stafford, P. Fraher, O. Poole

    Media Notes: Indiana Notes, Milwaukee Notes
    Television: FOX Sports Indiana / FOX Sports Wisconsin
    Radio: WFNI 1070 AM / WTMJ 620 AM
    NBA Feeds:

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    Season Records: (W-L)
    13-11
    Away: 6-8
    East: 7-5
    12-10
    Home: 6-5
    East: 10-5
    Upcoming Games:
    Dec 19
    Dec 21
    Dec 22
    Dec 26
    vs
    at
    at
    vs
    7:00pm
    7:00pm
    8:00pm
    7:00pm

    Projected Starting Lineup:
    HIBBERT
    WEST
    GEORGE
    GREEN
    HILL
    Projected Starting Lineup:
    SANDERS
    MBAH A MOUTE
    DANIELS
    ELLIS
    JENNINGS



    PACERS
    Danny Granger - left knee tendinosis (out)
    Roy Hibbert - LoneGroinger33 territory (probable)
    Lance Stephenson - right ankle sprain (doubtful)


    BUCKS
    Mike Dunleavy - bruised left knee (probable)
    Tobias Harris - right elbow laceration (out)
    Joel Przybilla - world's least satisfying ball-throwing suspension (suspended)
    Beno Udrih - right ankle sprain (out)


    Perpetually Disappointing to Trader Joe Minimally Relevant Video:
    Sitcom Wisconsin...


    Semi-Relevant Video:


    Brew Hoop:
    Steve von Horn: Milwaukee Bucks Lineup Pyramids - Corner 3s, please

    I understand why Frank Vogel likes this offensive action. It is tough to cover, it can create
    open layups and it, sort of, allows you to get away with moving screens easily. What I’m
    talking about is a staple in the Pacers half-court sets: an action where a perimeter player
    feeds the post then rushes directly towards the recipient to cut off his shoulder towards
    the hoop.

    Let's talk corner threes. For the season, the 2012-13 Milwaukee Bucks have scored 22.9
    percent of their total points from mid-range jumpers - mid-range being defined as the
    area inside the three-point line and outside the paint. Only two of the top-15 four-man
    lineup combinations for Milwaukee this year have meaningfully deviated from that trend
    by replacing mid-range production with three-point production (which is a terrific change
    to make). In a stunning upset, both of those quartets feature Marquis Daniels playing
    alongside Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis.

    When Larry Sanders joins Daniels, Ellis and Jennings, the mid-range allocation drops to
    14.9% and the percentage of points derived from threes jumps to 22.3% (from a normal
    team average of 17.9%). When Ekpe Udoh steps in for Sanders beside that trio, mid-
    range allocation falls to 15.1% and three-point contributions rise to 20.9% of total points
    scored.

    How are those two lineup combinations so successful at transforming sub-optimal mid-
    range shots into three-point attempts? They shoot 40.4% and 44.4 percent from beyond
    the arc, respectively. Is that sustainable? Probably not. Marquis Daniels has played
    through nine NBA season and he's never shot better than 30.6% from three in any single
    campaign. His career 3PT% sits at 23.5, which is a ghastly figure for any perimeter
    player. However, *Starquis* has converted on 9-of-24 of attempts this season (37.5%),
    and that potency has helped space the offense and fuel an important change in how the
    offense gets points.

    Let's think back to the summer for a second. I spent the entire month of July (Vol. 1)
    articulating my argument (Vol. 2) that the Bucks desperately needed to sign a legitimate
    shooter who could hit threes from the corners (Vol. 3) in order to improve the geometry
    and spacing in the offense.

    I liked Marco Belinelli as a reasonable option in free agency, but he wound up with the
    Bulls on a two-year, $3.8 million deal (side note: take a look a Belinelli's production since
    he moved into the starting lineup
    for Chicago). The Bucks landed Daniels in a move made
    later during the off-season.

    Okay, that's water under the bridge at this point. Sure the Bucks have a below-average
    offense and they rank 28th in 3PT% and 21st in corner 3PT%. And yes, Belinelli is
    shooting 41.3% from three-point range on the year, but it's WATER UNDER THE BRIDGE
    I SAY.

    Marquis Daniels has actually helped soften the blow...for now. Before I explain, here's
    a quick distillation of what I harped on over the summer:

    The Bucks badly need a wing player to space the floor on offense and
    hit corner threes, because it's a real stretch to think Tobias Harris can
    step in and keep the defense honest. If Harris is forced into the starting
    lineup, he could struggle to produce [as a floor spacer in the corner].
    Another wing shooter would allow Harris to slide into a hybrid offensive
    role in specialized second-unit combinations.

    ...Unless the Bucks add someone else to hit corner threes (like Delfino)
    or a true pick-and-pop option...things could become very difficult for
    Jennings and Ellis as driving lanes are cut off by sagging defenders in
    non-Dunleavy lineups.

    Guess where Daniels has excelled from along the arc so far in 2012...that's right, the
    corners. He's 7-for-13 in the corners of the court, and only 2-for-11 above the break on
    triples. Maybe Marquis Daniels suddenly became a very solid corner three-point shooter.
    I have no idea why that would be true only in his 10th year, and it doesn't make enough
    sense to advance as a reasonable theory, but the truth is that he found his stroke for
    long enough to bridge the gap until Dunleavy returns. That doesn't mean the problems
    are solved for Milwaukee on offense, but it did help the team stack a few wins in the
    interim. It's a nice storyline for the moment being, but it would be an unbelievable
    storyline if it continued.

    Here's a look at Daniels' impact on those particular units noted above:



    Now here's your bi-weekly PER update:

    Observations

    *In just short of a month's time, Brandon Jennings' PER has fallen from 22.4 to 16.7.
    That's an alarming step down for a guard who should be raising his level of play heading
    into restricted free agency. It makes me feel a bit nervous about the trade chatter
    surrounding BJ, because I'm not fond of selling low on anybody. The name of the game
    is supposed to be buy low, sell high. I'd hate for the Bucks to take pennies on the dollar
    when they still have the right to match any offer he receives during the off-season --
    which could turn into a blessing if someone lowballs him and he signs the offer sheet.
    There are some systemic issues that crop up with Jennings, and it's impossible for the
    franchise to go back from the 35+ MPG and starting point guard thing now, but Ellis still
    feels like the guy who should move when (yes, I said when) they break up this back
    court combo. That's at least how I feel at the moment.

    *Doron Lamb's NBA career is going just how everyone expected: he has flashed some
    potential as a lock-down perimeter defender and he can't hit the broad side of a barn
    with his outside shots. Wait.....WHAT? Lamb suffered through an 0-for-18 stretch over
    the past week that made even the most hopeful fans cringe, so it's natural that his PER
    dropped even further into the disaster zone. He took so long to hit his first NBA three
    that I had joked my celebratory doves passed away long before he gave me a reason
    to release them, but we've shifted to a point where this issue can't be joked about any
    longer. Again, he's very young and his defensive prowess has been notable, but Lamb
    is clearly not ready for the NBA right now.

    *Ersan Ilyasova spent the first part of the season digging an incredible hole -- he
    owned a 5.9 PER on Nov. 19 -- but since that time he's managed to climb up to a
    respectable perch. His marks are still below average, and he's hardly worth the $7.9
    million the Bucks are paying him this season, but things are improving. He's
    effectively lowered the standard we hold him to, which is a tragedy in its own right.


    (click to enlarge)

    Take a look at the changes from Vol. 2


    (click to enlarge)

    Now let's get to the updated lineup pyramids (note the Daniels/Jennings/Ellis success
    and then refer to my content above if you skipped over those paragraphs).

    In case this is your first time reading the series, I'm breaking down the best and
    worst trends among different lineup grouping for the Bucks. When I speak of a four-
    man lineup, it means those four players are always in the five-man group, and the
    final slot could be filled by anyone else on the roster (and so forth down the line to
    two-man groups). Here is what else you need to know:

    The sample sizes for lineup combinations are small, so only the most-
    used groupings are considered, but the information provided below
    serves to explain what has actually happened so far this year. You
    can use these numbers in the following manner: When [insert player
    grouping here] were on the floor, the Bucks outscored (or were
    outscored by) opponents by a margin of [insert pts / 100 poss #].

    Once again, here are the parameters I used:

    • Best / Worst of the top-six lineups (by min/gm) for four- and five-man
      lineups are listed.
    • Best / Worst of the top-10 lineups (by min/gm) for three- and two-man
      lineups, as well as the individual category are also listed.


    Best Lineup Observations

    *My best observation is posted at the outset of the article. Be sure to watch the video to
    drive the point home.

    *Marquis Daniels, Ekpe Udoh and Larry Sanders are the only three men who have not ssen
    their defensive rating plummet when paired with Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis. Those
    three are among the best defenders the Bucks can put on the floor. If Daniels can't keep
    up the offensive output, it will be interesting to see how effective this unit will be going
    forward. The good news is that they've been excellent so far this season over 40 minutes
    of action.

    *If you haven't missed Beno Udrih, you haven't been watching Bucks games while he's
    been out with an ankle injury.



    Here's a look at the trends that have developed over the first three installments in the
    series (click to enlarge).



    Worst Lineup Observations

    *The more Tobias Harris has played, the worse he's made things. Take a close look at
    the image where I've combined all three volumes of the worst pyramids into a single
    graphic. Harris only played 23 minutes additional minutes since Vol. 2 on Dec. 2, but
    over that time he managed to drop even further from -7.7 pts / 100 poss to -9.6 pts /
    100 poss. As it's been from the beginning, defense is the primary issue. All signs point
    to the fact that he's not going to be a small forward in the future. I still think he could
    flourish...CONTINUE READING AT BREWHOOP



    140 Characters of (Non-PD) Coverage


    Pacers
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    Jared Wade @8pts9secs
    Tim Donahue @TimDonahue8p9s
    Tom Lewis @indycornrows


    Bucks
    Charles F. Gardner @cf_gardner
    Jeremy Schmidt @Bucksketball
    K L Chouinard @AnaheimAmigos
    Frank Madden @brewhoop
    Last edited by avoidingtheclowns; 12-18-2012 at 05:11 PM.
    This is the darkest timeline.

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  3. #2
    You Did It Joseph!!!! AesopRockOn's Avatar
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    Default Re: 12/18/2012 Game Thread #25: Pacers Vs. Bucks

    Permanent handle change to LoneGroinger33?

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    Default Re: 12/18/2012 Game Thread #25: Pacers Vs. Bucks

    I want REVENGE

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    PROUD 2 B A PACERS FAN! xtacy's Avatar
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    Default Re: 12/18/2012 Game Thread #25: Pacers Vs. Bucks

    we should destroy them inside. anything less than that would be unacceptable.

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    Default Re: 12/18/2012 Game Thread #25: Pacers Vs. Bucks

    Quote Originally Posted by AesopRockOn View Post
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    Permanent handle change to LoneGroinger33?
    Marvelous idea.

    We, as a community of amateurs, are best-served by having an expert like LoneGroinger33 lead the intercourse regarding the mystery (and perhaps magic) of groins. I'm sure he could type with one hand the number of things he's ever not known about that particular area - especially when Pacer-specific.

    He's a tough nut to bust, no doubt, and certainly has several bones of contention (mostly with you, Aesop)... but it is my hope that we can coax him into taking a leadership role (no matter what groin-teasing or prodding might be required to penetrate his rigid exterior) and that we can resolve this without it erupting into a sticky mess.

    What say you, LG33?

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  10. #6

    Default Re: 12/18/2012 Game Thread #25: Pacers Vs. Bucks

    We got the size advantage in the post. Green especially. Get him the ball and let's get him out of this season long slump .

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    Default Re: 12/18/2012 Game Thread #25: Pacers Vs. Bucks

    A win tonight could very well mean Indiana secures the #4 spot in the East.

    An Indiana victory, plus Brooklyn (vs. Utah) and Chicago (vs. Boston) losses would put our little clump of similar record teams at

    Indiana 14-11
    Chicago 13-11
    Brooklyn 13-11
    Boston 13-11
    Milwaukee 12-11

    Not a bad place to be, when one considers Indiana will have played 15 road games and is missing their best player, who will return eventually vs. 10, 10 11 and 12 road games played by the opposing teams.

    If Indiana wins, and Atlanta loses somehow vs. Washington then Indiana would only be 1.5 games out of 3rd place, with Atlanta only having played 9 road games thus far (14-8 vs. 14-11).

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    Default Re: 12/18/2012 Game Thread #25: Pacers Vs. Bucks

    Quote Originally Posted by CJ Jones View Post
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    We got the size advantage in the post. Green especially. Get him the ball and let's get him out of this season long slump .
    It depends. They can always put Luc Richard Mbah a Moute on him. He's a very versatile defender that can defend the 2,3 and 4. If they do, they have no one on West though. Or they could slide Sanders there but then they would have no one on Hibbert. And there's always PG as well

    We can start posting their whole team, actually. Hill can post up both of their starting guards.

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    Default Re: 12/18/2012 Game Thread #25: Pacers Vs. Bucks

    Lance is playing! Via Pacers twitter.

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    Default Re: 12/18/2012 Game Thread #25: Pacers Vs. Bucks

    Wow, that place is E-M-P-T-Y.

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    Default Re: 12/18/2012 Game Thread #25: Pacers Vs. Bucks

    Quote Originally Posted by PurduePacer View Post
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    Wow, that place is E-M-P-T-Y.
    So it this place.

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    Default Re: 12/18/2012 Game Thread #25: Pacers Vs. Bucks

    Wow, that was like 3 different flops on 1 play for Jennings.

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    Default Re: 12/18/2012 Game Thread #25: Pacers Vs. Bucks

    Nice drive

  20. #14

    Default Re: 12/18/2012 Game Thread #25: Pacers Vs. Bucks

    IS there butter on the damn ball?

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    Default Re: 12/18/2012 Game Thread #25: Pacers Vs. Bucks

    Did somebody grease the ball or something? I've never seen a 4-minute stretch where so many different guys from both teams lost control of the ball.
    Welcome to Pacers Digest! New around here? Here are three tips for making the forum a great place to talk about Pacers basketball.

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    Default Re: 12/18/2012 Game Thread #25: Pacers Vs. Bucks

    Hibby has completely lost his touch on those tip ins

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    Default Re: 12/18/2012 Game Thread #25: Pacers Vs. Bucks

    Croshere it wasn't because they didn't put a body on him, but because they moved too close to the basket allowing the ball to bounce over their heads. If Hill took one less step forward it would have bounced right into his hands no matter if he put a body on him or not. When rebounding you do not want to get any closer to the basket than you have to as it is easy to get to a ball that bounces in front of you than one that bounces over your head.

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    Default Re: 12/18/2012 Game Thread #25: Pacers Vs. Bucks

    'Atta boy, Hibs

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    Default Re: 12/18/2012 Game Thread #25: Pacers Vs. Bucks

    Quote Originally Posted by Nuntius View Post
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    Hibby has completely lost his touch on those tip ins
    You could've stopped there.

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    Default Re: 12/18/2012 Game Thread #25: Pacers Vs. Bucks

    Daniels made a three!

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    Default Re: 12/18/2012 Game Thread #25: Pacers Vs. Bucks

    Can we post up GG on Ellis please?

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    Default Re: 12/18/2012 Game Thread #25: Pacers Vs. Bucks

    2nd bucket for Hibbert... be nice to see him break out tonight.

    And another quick post and hit!

    And the defense! Nice, Roy!

    EDIT: And we take him out. Why?

    EDIT 2: And Ian scores immediately. Shows what I know.
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    Default Re: 12/18/2012 Game Thread #25: Pacers Vs. Bucks

    Hibbert has improved his jumper, though.

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    Default Re: 12/18/2012 Game Thread #25: Pacers Vs. Bucks

    what a pass by george!

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    Default Re: 12/18/2012 Game Thread #25: Pacers Vs. Bucks

    Ian

    It's certainly nice when your back-up Center can finish at the rim

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