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REMINDER: Per PD policy, please do not share a link to, describe how to search for, request a link to, or request a PM about streaming video of a NBA game that is not coming directly through the NBA. Not even in a "wink-wink, nudge-nudge, know-what-I-mean" round-about sort of way. Thank you
Season Records: (W-L)
Projected Starting Lineup:
Projected Starting Lineup:
MBAH A MOUTE
Danny Granger - left knee tendinosis (out)
Roy Hibbert - LoneGroinger33 territory (probable)
Lance Stephenson - right ankle sprain (doubtful)
Perpetually Disappointing to Trader Joe Minimally Relevant Video:
Steve von Horn: Milwaukee Bucks Lineup Pyramids - Corner 3s, please
I understand why Frank Vogel likes this offensive action. It is tough to cover, it can create
open layups and it, sort of, allows you to get away with moving screens easily. What I’m
talking about is a staple in the Pacers half-court sets: an action where a perimeter player
feeds the post then rushes directly towards the recipient to cut off his shoulder towards
Let's talk corner threes. For the season, the 2012-13 Milwaukee Bucks have scored 22.9
percent of their total points from mid-range jumpers - mid-range being defined as the
area inside the three-point line and outside the paint. Only two of the top-15 four-man
lineup combinations for Milwaukee this year have meaningfully deviated from that trend
by replacing mid-range production with three-point production (which is a terrific change
to make). In a stunning upset, both of those quartets feature Marquis Daniels playing
alongside Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis.
When Larry Sanders joins Daniels, Ellis and Jennings, the mid-range allocation drops to
14.9% and the percentage of points derived from threes jumps to 22.3% (from a normal
team average of 17.9%). When Ekpe Udoh steps in for Sanders beside that trio, mid-
range allocation falls to 15.1% and three-point contributions rise to 20.9% of total points
How are those two lineup combinations so successful at transforming sub-optimal mid-
range shots into three-point attempts? They shoot 40.4% and 44.4 percent from beyond
the arc, respectively. Is that sustainable? Probably not. Marquis Daniels has played
through nine NBA season and he's never shot better than 30.6% from three in any single
campaign. His career 3PT% sits at 23.5, which is a ghastly figure for any perimeter
player. However, *Starquis* has converted on 9-of-24 of attempts this season (37.5%),
and that potency has helped space the offense and fuel an important change in how the
offense gets points.
Let's think back to the summer for a second. I spent the entire month of July (Vol. 1)
articulating my argument (Vol. 2) that the Bucks desperately needed to sign a legitimate
shooter who could hit threes from the corners (Vol. 3) in order to improve the geometry
and spacing in the offense.
Okay, that's water under the bridge at this point. Sure the Bucks have a below-average
offense and they rank 28th in 3PT% and 21st in corner 3PT%. And yes, Belinelli is
shooting 41.3% from three-point range on the year, but it's WATER UNDER THE BRIDGE
Marquis Daniels has actually helped soften the blow...for now. Before I explain, here's
a quick distillation of what I harped on over the summer:
The Bucks badly need a wing player to space the floor on offense and
hit corner threes, because it's a real stretch to think Tobias Harris can
step in and keep the defense honest. If Harris is forced into the starting
lineup, he could struggle to produce [as a floor spacer in the corner].
Another wing shooter would allow Harris to slide into a hybrid offensive
role in specialized second-unit combinations.
...Unless the Bucks add someone else to hit corner threes (like Delfino)
or a true pick-and-pop option...things could become very difficult for
Jennings and Ellis as driving lanes are cut off by sagging defenders in
Guess where Daniels has excelled from along the arc so far in 2012...that's right, the
corners. He's 7-for-13 in the corners of the court, and only 2-for-11 above the break on
triples. Maybe Marquis Daniels suddenly became a very solid corner three-point shooter.
I have no idea why that would be true only in his 10th year, and it doesn't make enough
sense to advance as a reasonable theory, but the truth is that he found his stroke for
long enough to bridge the gap until Dunleavy returns. That doesn't mean the problems
are solved for Milwaukee on offense, but it did help the team stack a few wins in the
interim. It's a nice storyline for the moment being, but it would be an unbelievable
storyline if it continued.
Here's a look at Daniels' impact on those particular units noted above:
Now here's your bi-weekly PER update:
*In just short of a month's time, Brandon Jennings' PER has fallen from 22.4 to 16.7.
That's an alarming step down for a guard who should be raising his level of play heading
into restricted free agency. It makes me feel a bit nervous about the trade chatter
surrounding BJ, because I'm not fond of selling low on anybody. The name of the game
is supposed to be buy low, sell high. I'd hate for the Bucks to take pennies on the dollar
when they still have the right to match any offer he receives during the off-season --
which could turn into a blessing if someone lowballs him and he signs the offer sheet.
There are some systemic issues that crop up with Jennings, and it's impossible for the
franchise to go back from the 35+ MPG and starting point guard thing now, but Ellis still
feels like the guy who should move when (yes, I said when) they break up this back
court combo. That's at least how I feel at the moment.
*Doron Lamb's NBA career is going just how everyone expected: he has flashed some
potential as a lock-down perimeter defender and he can't hit the broad side of a barn
with his outside shots. Wait.....WHAT? Lamb suffered through an 0-for-18 stretch over
the past week that made even the most hopeful fans cringe, so it's natural that his PER
dropped even further into the disaster zone. He took so long to hit his first NBA three
that I had joked my celebratory doves passed away long before he gave me a reason
to release them, but we've shifted to a point where this issue can't be joked about any
longer. Again, he's very young and his defensive prowess has been notable, but Lamb
is clearly not ready for the NBA right now.
*Ersan Ilyasova spent the first part of the season digging an incredible hole -- he
owned a 5.9 PER on Nov. 19 -- but since that time he's managed to climb up to a
respectable perch. His marks are still below average, and he's hardly worth the $7.9
million the Bucks are paying him this season, but things are improving. He's
effectively lowered the standard we hold him to, which is a tragedy in its own right.
(click to enlarge)
Take a look at the changes from Vol. 2
(click to enlarge)
Now let's get to the updated lineup pyramids (note the Daniels/Jennings/Ellis success
and then refer to my content above if you skipped over those paragraphs).
In case this is your first time reading the series, I'm breaking down the best and
worst trends among different lineup grouping for the Bucks. When I speak of a four-
man lineup, it means those four players are always in the five-man group, and the
final slot could be filled by anyone else on the roster (and so forth down the line to
two-man groups). Here is what else you need to know:
The sample sizes for lineup combinations are small, so only the most-
used groupings are considered, but the information provided below
serves to explain what has actually happened so far this year. You
can use these numbers in the following manner: When [insert player
grouping here] were on the floor, the Bucks outscored (or were
outscored by) opponents by a margin of [insert pts / 100 poss #].
Once again, here are the parameters I used:
Best / Worst of the top-six lineups (by min/gm) for four- and five-man
lineups are listed.
Best / Worst of the top-10 lineups (by min/gm) for three- and two-man
lineups, as well as the individual category are also listed.
Best Lineup Observations
*My best observation is posted at the outset of the article. Be sure to watch the video to
drive the point home.
*Marquis Daniels, Ekpe Udoh and Larry Sanders are the only three men who have not ssen
their defensive rating plummet when paired with Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis. Those
three are among the best defenders the Bucks can put on the floor. If Daniels can't keep
up the offensive output, it will be interesting to see how effective this unit will be going
forward. The good news is that they've been excellent so far this season over 40 minutes
*If you haven't missed Beno Udrih, you haven't been watching Bucks games while he's
been out with an ankle injury.
Here's a look at the trends that have developed over the first three installments in the
series (click to enlarge).
Worst Lineup Observations
*The more Tobias Harris has played, the worse he's made things. Take a close look at
the image where I've combined all three volumes of the worst pyramids into a single
graphic. Harris only played 23 minutes additional minutes since Vol. 2 on Dec. 2, but
over that time he managed to drop even further from -7.7 pts / 100 poss to -9.6 pts /
100 poss. As it's been from the beginning, defense is the primary issue. All signs point
to the fact that he's not going to be a small forward in the future. I still think he could
flourish...CONTINUE READING AT BREWHOOP
We, as a community of amateurs, are best-served by having an expert like LoneGroinger33 lead the intercourse regarding the mystery (and perhaps magic) of groins. I'm sure he could type with one hand the number of things he's ever not known about that particular area - especially when Pacer-specific.
He's a tough nut to bust, no doubt, and certainly has several bones of contention (mostly with you, Aesop)... but it is my hope that we can coax him into taking a leadership role (no matter what groin-teasing or prodding might be required to penetrate his rigid exterior) and that we can resolve this without it erupting into a sticky mess.
We got the size advantage in the post. Green especially. Get him the ball and let's get him out of this season long slump .
It depends. They can always put Luc Richard Mbah a Moute on him. He's a very versatile defender that can defend the 2,3 and 4. If they do, they have no one on West though. Or they could slide Sanders there but then they would have no one on Hibbert. And there's always PG as well
We can start posting their whole team, actually. Hill can post up both of their starting guards.
A win tonight could very well mean Indiana secures the #4 spot in the East.
An Indiana victory, plus Brooklyn (vs. Utah) and Chicago (vs. Boston) losses would put our little clump of similar record teams at
Not a bad place to be, when one considers Indiana will have played 15 road games and is missing their best player, who will return eventually vs. 10, 10 11 and 12 road games played by the opposing teams.
If Indiana wins, and Atlanta loses somehow vs. Washington then Indiana would only be 1.5 games out of 3rd place, with Atlanta only having played 9 road games thus far (14-8 vs. 14-11).
Croshere it wasn't because they didn't put a body on him, but because they moved too close to the basket allowing the ball to bounce over their heads. If Hill took one less step forward it would have bounced right into his hands no matter if he put a body on him or not. When rebounding you do not want to get any closer to the basket than you have to as it is easy to get to a ball that bounces in front of you than one that bounces over your head.