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Thread: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    No Seth, you really just don't get it. The Pacers ARE NOT great. We have 2 wins against playoff caliber teams. 2! I don't understand how people can't understand that level of competition matters. Great, we are playing good defense and rebounding well against the Raptors, Wizards, Bobcats, Pistons, and Philly without Bynum or Holiday. WOOOOOOOOOO. What a great team we are! We have played the 29th easiest schedule and are hovering around .500. If that isn't greatness incarnate I don't know what is!

    Pretty sure I won't be buying that Hibbert jersey, but as I said, I'd be happy to do it. I'd love nothing more than for him to prove me wrong and shoot 55% the rest the year. It's only money.

    You guys are in for a real wake up when we stop playing bottom feeders. We host Memphis on New Year's Eve. You feel strongly enough about our rebounding to place a bet on who wins the battle of the boards that night? Pretty confident they are going to come into our gym and take our lunch money, because they are an actually tough team who can impose their will on anyone -- they don't have to push around the Bobcats to look good.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    So some people really believe that Hibbert is better than Gasol? .... cocaine is a hell of a drug....

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    No Seth, you really just don't get it. The Pacers ARE NOT great. We have 2 wins against playoff caliber teams. 2! I don't understand how people can't understand that level of competition matters. Great, we are playing good defense and rebounding well against the Raptors, Wizards, Bobcats, Pistons, and Philly without Bynum or Holiday. WOOOOOOOOOO. What a great team we are! We have played the 29th easiest schedule and are hovering around .500. If that isn't greatness incarnate I don't know what is!

    Pretty sure I won't be buying that Hibbert jersey, but as I said, I'd be happy to do it. I'd love nothing more than for him to prove me wrong and shoot 55% the rest the year. It's only money.

    You guys are in for a real wake up when we stop playing bottom feeders. We host Memphis on New Year's Eve. You feel strongly enough about our rebounding to place a bet on who wins the battle of the boards that night? Pretty confident they are going to come into our gym and take our lunch money, because they are an actually tough team who can impose their will on anyone -- they don't have to push around the Bobcats to look good.
    I have not seen such a crappy and easy eschedule in my whole life watching the Pacers, easiest schedule by far, I'm ready to watch real teams I'm getting tired of watching crappy team after crappy team.

    And to ad to your post, people don't realize that playing an easy schedule can make anybody's numbers look good people need to slow down with their greatness proclamations let's see how they do against real teams first.
    Last edited by vnzla81; 12-17-2012 at 09:12 AM.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    No Seth, you really just don't get it. The Pacers ARE NOT great. We have 2 wins against playoff caliber teams. 2! I don't understand how people can't understand that level of competition matters. Great, we are playing good defense and rebounding well against the Raptors, Wizards, Bobcats, Pistons, and Philly without Bynum or Holiday. WOOOOOOOOOO. What a great team we are! We have played the 29th easiest schedule and are hovering around .500. If that isn't greatness incarnate I don't know what is!

    Pretty sure I won't be buying that Hibbert jersey, but as I said, I'd be happy to do it. I'd love nothing more than for him to prove me wrong and shoot 55% the rest the year. It's only money.

    You guys are in for a real wake up when we stop playing bottom feeders. We host Memphis on New Year's Eve. You feel strongly enough about our rebounding to place a bet on who wins the battle of the boards that night? Pretty confident they are going to come into our gym and take our lunch money, because they are an actually tough team who can impose their will on anyone -- they don't have to push around the Bobcats to look good.
    I'm not sure you completely get it either. Road games are completely different from home games. It's a lot easier to win on your home court. So far our season has been front-loaded with road games. I completely expect us to run off a bunch of home wins late in the season just like last year. Our defense have been superb, it's our offense that has killed us. Offense is a LOT easier to fix than defense.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Oh yea, for sure, Toronto and Charlotte are scary playing environments. No one wants to go to those arenas. We've played 10 home games and 14 road games. Hardly lopsided, that's just 2 more road games than we'd expect in a 24 game stretch.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    I have not seen such a crappy and easy eschedule in my whole life watching the Pacers, easiest schedule by far, I'm ready to watch real teams I'm getting tired of watching crappy team after crappy team.

    And to ad to your post, people don't realize that playing an easy schedule can make anybody's numbers look good people need to slow down with their greatness proclamations let's see how they do against real teams first.
    I guess you didn't watch any of the games against the Hawks, Thunder, or the second Spurs games. In all three we were competing just fine, or even beating them as both the Hawks and Spurs had to come from behind in the 4th to beat us. Yeah we aren't playing our best ball right now. They are improving, though, and are not getting blown out by the best teams. When you are struggling, but still able to keep up with the best teams you have reason to believe things can and will get better.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    I also really like the straw man "Paul is junk compared to Harden." At no point did anyone say that or anything resembling that. In fact I said Paul is a great defender and rebounder and good player, and that there is no shame in being not as good as Harden who is an absolute beast. If you're going to lose an argument to me, at least lose it without making garbage up.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    Paul George has many things going for him. Great defender, dominant rebounder by position. A above average passing game is not one of them. Harden is 10 times the ball handler and passer that PG is, and it hurts your credibility to suggest otherwise. Paul George is a very nice player. There is no shame in being worse than a player putting up 25/5/5.
    Quoted to help Seth's reading comprehension.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    Oh yea, for sure, Toronto and Charlotte are scary playing environments. No one wants to go to those arenas. We've played 10 home games and 14 road games. Hardly lopsided, that's just 2 more road games than we'd expect in a 24 game stretch.
    We just started playing some home games, which we are winning. It has been lopsided. Are you saying us playing more games on the road hasn't affected us? Bad teams tend to win at home. When you say it like, "that's just 2 more road games than we'd expect in a 24 game stretch," you make the numbers look like they mean less. The fact is, we have played 4 more road games than home games. It's just the way you spin it.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    In 82 games you play 41 road, 41 home. In 24, then, it should be 12 home, 12 road. We played 14 road. Only 2 more than the pace. This isn't "spin" or complicated, it's very simple. What plus 12 is 14? Hint: it's a number greater than 1 but less than 3.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    I also really like the straw man "Paul is junk compared to Harden." At no point did anyone say that or anything resembling that. In fact I said Paul is a great defender and rebounder and good player, and that there is no shame in being not as good as Harden who is an absolute beast. If you're going to lose an argument to me, at least lose it without making garbage up.
    Nobody has said you said that...

    Even if you read all of the replies nobody has responded as if you implied that either.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81 View Post
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    I have not seen such a crappy and easy eschedule in my whole life watching the Pacers, easiest schedule by far, I'm ready to watch real teams I'm getting tired of watching crappy team after crappy team.

    And to ad to your post, people don't realize that playing an easy schedule can make anybody's numbers look good people need to slow down with their greatness proclamations let's see how they do against real teams first.
    The Pacers schedule won't be getting too much harder before the playoffs. Here is the breakdown:

    over .600 teams. So far: 6 games (1 home, 5 road). Remaining: 15 games (10 home, 5 road).
    .500 to .600 teams: So far: 5 games (2 home, 3 road). Remaining: 19 games (10 home, 9 road).
    .400 to .499 teams: So far: 3 games (2 home, 1 road). Remaining: 8 games (3 home, 5 road)
    under .400 teams: So far: 10 games (5 home, 5 road) Remaining: 16 games (8 home, 8 road)

    So the Pacers schedule will definitely get tougher as the season goes along. They have played way too many games against the bottom feeders. But they have played a decent number of games against the elite. The main area where they haven't played are the above average teams. And they get a large number of the better teams at home, which is a vast difference from what they have had so far.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    ...apparently Paul is junk compared to Harden...
    Seth did in fact rant that very straw man, not an implication, a direct statement. I read the replies, thanks, maybe you didn't?

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    Seth did in fact rant that very straw man, not an implication, a direct statement. I read the replies, thanks, maybe you didn't?
    I'm sorry, I didn't read them closely enough. I missed the one sentence where he directly reference Harden v. George:

    West isn't famous as a great defender, apparently Paul is junk compared to Harden, Roy can't hold Gasol's jock, and Danny's hurt.

    So I guess you must think it's all George Hill, blocking shots and pulling rebounds, maybe the greatest PG in the game today to be doing it all by himself.
    That wasn't a "straw man argument," that was hyperbole. Obviously incorrect, but it clearly wasn't a point of emphasis for him. The rest of his argument was all about Hibbert and our team defensive play, of which PG and Hibbert happen to be a very big part of.
    Last edited by aamcguy; 12-17-2012 at 05:06 PM. Reason: double paste

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    In 82 games you play 41 road, 41 home. In 24, then, it should be 12 home, 12 road. We played 14 road. Only 2 more than the pace. This isn't "spin" or complicated, it's very simple. What plus 12 is 14? Hint: it's a number greater than 1 but less than 3.
    Ok let's say we had an even home and away schedule, and we were able to win those extra 2 games instead of losing them on the road. That would put our record at 15-9, or .625, or 4th seed in the East. Not saying we would win them without a doubt, just trying to show how big of a difference 2 games can be at this point.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    No, I don't think Gasol's defensive dreams go beyond flopping for a charge call or shouting for Zbo to come help.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    I mean, I don't disagree that a .625 win rate would be better, but I don't really see value in saying WHAT IF THIS THING THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN, HAPPENED? Like alright, what if we never lose at home again. That'd be awesome. I agree. Your example didn't happen, and my example won't happen. They have no value other than pleasant daydreams. The reality is the win % of hometeams in the NBA over the last decade or so has been ~60%, so yea, homecourt advantage helps - 60% is definitely better than 50%, but it's certainly not so powerful that we should be saying road losses would have definitely been home wins. What seems a lot more meaningful is that we're beating bad teams at an 85% clip, while beating good teams at an 18% clip.

    Cubs did up a really nice breakdown of our schedule so far and to come. We've played 11 games against good teams (2-9), with 34 games against good teams to come (current win % projects to 6-28). Over 3 times as many games against quality competition coming. Meanwhile we've played 13 games against bad competition (11-2), including 10 games against the absolute worst competition with only 24 left against bad teams (projects 20-4). If we maintain our current trend of winning nearly every easy game and losing every challenging game we will end up out of the playoffs with a record of 39-43. Or, if homecourt is as overwhelmingly powerful as you seem to believe it is, refresh my memory on how many series an 8 seed get homecourt advantage for.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    I mean, I don't disagree that a .625 win rate would be better, but I don't really see value in saying WHAT IF THIS THING THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN, HAPPENED? Like alright, what if we never lose at home again. That'd be awesome. I agree. Your example didn't happen, and my example won't happen. They have no value other than pleasant daydreams. The reality is the win % of hometeams in the NBA over the last decade or so has been ~60%, so yea, homecourt advantage helps - 60% is definitely better than 50%, but it's certainly not so powerful that we should be saying road losses would have definitely been home wins. What seems a lot more meaningful is that we're beating bad teams at an 85% clip, while beating good teams at an 18% clip.

    Cubs did up a really nice breakdown of our schedule so far and to come. We've played 11 games against good teams (2-9), with 34 games against good teams to come (current win % projects to 6-28). Over 3 times as many games against quality competition coming. Meanwhile we've played 13 games against bad competition (11-2), including 10 games against the absolute worst competition with only 24 left against bad teams (projects 20-4). If we maintain our current trend of winning nearly every easy game and losing every challenging game we will end up out of the playoffs with a record of 39-43. Or, if homecourt is as overwhelmingly powerful as you seem to believe it is, refresh my memory on how many series an 8 seed get homecourt advantage for.
    Apparently you did not read the last sentence of my post. Otherwise you would not have wasted your time saying the same thing I did in long form. I put that in there to try and get people to not take my what if so literally, but apparently that can't be avoided.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Latest Pacers trade info from Aldridge:

    http://www.nba.com/2012/news/feature...thm/index.html

    Pacers, Wizards, Sixers interested in deals
    Indiana has played better lately, but the Pacers are still willing to talk about making an adjustment here or there, though they aren't willing to talk about either George Hill or Paul George, according to sources.
    Notice that Hibbert, Granger, or West aren't mentioned here.

    It also is validation, again, that the front office is 100% committed to GHill over the long run. Probably explains why they didn't let him test the market. They see him as a cornerstone to the franchise.

    My guess is that West would be listed here if he was younger.
    My guess is that Hibbert would be listed here if he was consistent on the offensive end.
    My guess is that Granger would be listed here if it wasn't for his injuries.

    May we live in interesting times.
    Last edited by docpaul; 12-17-2012 at 03:05 PM.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    I hope is true that anybody but Hill and Paul George are on the table.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Total home records of teams the Pacers played on the road
    95-68, .582 win PCT
    Multiply by 14 games = expected 6-8 record vs those teams

    Total road records of teams the Pacers played at home
    37-92, .286 win PCT
    Multiply by 10 games = expected 7-3 record vs those teams

    Expected total record = 13-11

    Actual home record
    7-3
    Actual road record
    6-8
    Actual total record
    13-11

    So how exactly have the Pacers been "getting over"? They've done what you'd expect a team to do in the games it played. The rest of the way they will play 4 more home games than road games, and even though the quality of teams will go up in general they will be at home more than the road.

    Of the top 8 West teams the Pacers have already played OKC, SAS, GSW, and MIN on the road (4 of the top 6 West teams), as well as the LAL who might get better later. Yes they still have road games vs LAC, MEM, DEN and UTH but that's only 4 losses. They've also already played 4 of the top 7 East teams (minus Pacers) on the road.

    The Pacers only have 12 more road games against teams currently in the playoffs (8 West, 7 East). They've played 8 of the 20 against those teams.

    This means that in the first 30% of the season they've already played 40% of their playoff team road games. So they actually haven't had it easy at all.

    Yes the home schedule has been a little softer, but not dramatically so, and in total it's been normal to slightly challenging due to road games.


    The issue is people for some reason are ignoring NYK, ATL and CHI as top 4 teams even though they are, and they are ignoring GSW and Minny as top 8 teams, even though they are as well (GSW is the 2nd best road team in the NBA right now).

    Using the Road Wins - Home Losses ranking the Pacers rank 2nd in the East and 8th overall.


    So much for getting fat against a slew of easy games. There is no reason to expect a dramatic fall off in the coming months, especially FEB when they are at home nearly every game and will be getting Granger back.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    1 - .582 = .418

    .418 - .286 = .132 -> 13.2% difference in win rate isn't dramatically softer opposition in your mind? The difference between a .500 team and a .632 is HUGE. That's an 41 win team to a 52 win team.

    Listen, I hope you're right and I'd love for us to be a 55 win team. As it stands I'll be shocked to get more than 45, and the numbers you think helped your argument did not. I'd rather play the 41 win team to the 52 win team by a mile. Keep in mind the league average for homecourt is usually 60-62% ish. Teams that win less than 40% on the road or less than 60% at home are worse than the league average.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    1 - .582 = .418

    .418 - .286 = .132 -> 13.2% difference in win rate isn't dramatically softer opposition in your mind? The difference between a .500 team and a .632 is HUGE. That's an 41 win team to a 52 win team.

    Listen, I hope you're right and I'd love for us to be a 55 win team. As it stands I'll be shocked to get more than 45, and the numbers you think helped your argument did not. I'd rather play the 41 win team to the 52 win team by a mile. Keep in mind the league average for homecourt is usually 60-62% ish. Teams that win less than 40% on the road or less than 60% at home are worse than the league average.
    Unfortunately, all you are doing is comparing road records. What your manipulation of projected numbers actually indicates is exactly what Seth said: compared to the competition we've face both on the road and at home, we are doing what we are supposed to.

    If we keep winning .418 on the road and win an average .6 at home, we will end up with a 41 win team, which may be what you were trying to get at. You were very unclear though, and I had to work through your stuff on my own to get an idea of what you were thinking.

    That doesn't account for the fact that we are starting to play better now than at the start of the season or that Granger may rejoin our team.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    The numbers I'm showing here are the expected win rate of the average road opponent for our road games, .418 against the average team we've hosted's win rate, .286.... basically I've shown that we've played a roughly average road schedule, but a very favorable home schedule, because we should expect the league average, if consistent with decades past, to be in that 38-40% range, which .418 is pretty close to.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    We are 13-11 without out best player and after a slow start (4-7). That means we've gone 9-4 since then. 9-4 without our best player and with Hibbert still being inept on offense.

    we aren't a flashy team. Neither were the pistons. I honestly don't see one reason why we can't do what they did. We have enough talent. Our defense is phenomenal. Damn good coach. Our guys go out every night and play hard. And they have more experience now than ever. I think when we get Granger back, we are going to make a very strong run to close out the season and into the playoffs.

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