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Thread: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

  1. #51
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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    So Nuntius... you want to use THIS year's numbers for rebounding, but CAREER number's for offensive production?
    Nope. If I wanted that I wouldn't use his career numbers (both per game and per 36) when I was doing the head to head comparison between the two.

    I'll read the rest of your post and reply later but I just had to make sure that we got this thing clear.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    Per 36 numbers are pointless, Roy has shown he is not able to be on the floor that much. He simply doesn't have the conditioning.
    So, you're saying that Hibbert played 14.4 MPG in his rookie year due to his conditioning? JOB misusing him wasn't a part of it? Meanwhile, Marc was playing 30.7 MPG in Memphis. That's a bit more than double Hibbert's minutes. Was it Marc's condition that much better? No. He was simply being used more by his team. And that's exactly why a comparison on career numbers is never going to be accurate when there's such a large MPG difference. That's exactly why teams use the per 36 stats. Usage does matter.

    On top of that, the reason that Hibbert does not usually play big minutes is due to athlete-induced asthma. It's not a matter of fittnes or conditioning. And there are drugs that can temporarily control this kind of asthma (follow this link for example -> http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/exe...ents-and-drugs).

    So, your premise is wrong. Game 7 Hibbert can give us 40 minutes. He gave us 43 minutes in a november game against Sacramento earlier this season. There's no reason to believe that he wouldn't be able to do it in a very important game. In fact, he did gave us nearly 40 minutes in game 6 against the Heat last season.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    I guess I misunderstood you when you said, "Career wise? Sure. This year? No." About rebounding and then went on to talk career for the rest of your post.

    James Harden is a primary ball handler for an offense that scores 12 more PPG than our offense. The idea of Paul being our primary ball handler is nightmare worthy.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    I don't understand how anyone who's seen all of the guys play could think that A.) PG is nearly as good as Harden or B.) Hibbert is anywhere close to Gasol. Just my personal opinion, but I think we'd be close to the top of the East right now (even without Danny) if we had Harden and Gasol on our squad.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Regardless of it being a medical condition limiting his conditioning or laziness, which I never suggested, the fact is his conditioning limits his minutes. Also, I watched both of those games. In both games he was sucking air and his effectiveness was reduced due to him not being able to maintain good production at those minute levels. I mean, you're citing a game we lost where he played 40 minutes but only managed 8 rebounds, and a game against a bad team we barely won, he played 43 minutes, and only had 12-10. By the way ALL of those Miami games Gasol would have played 36-40, Hibbert game 5: 28 minutes, Hibbert game 4: 32 minutes, Hibbert game 3: 33 minutes, Hibbert game 2: 33 minutes, Hibbert game 1: 29 minutes. SO he played 1 game more than 36 minutes in the entire playoff series, and failed to get double digit rebounds. Yea. That's not helping your argument.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by spreedom View Post
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    I don't understand how anyone who's seen all of the guys play could think that A.) PG is nearly as good as Harden or B.) Hibbert is anywhere close to Gasol. Just my personal opinion, but I think we'd be close to the top of the East right now (even without Danny) if we had Harden and Gasol on our squad.
    Somebody is going to accuse you of "looking at the green grass" just wait.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    The season is a quarter over, Hibbert is shooting 38%. A quarter season is not a slump. A quarter season is, "this is the player we have now."
    Danny Granger was shooting 38.2% prior to the ASG break. Was that "the player we have now"? The sample size was bigger as well.

    But Danny was not "the player we have now". He got out of his slump and shot 45% after the ASG.

    So, no. 22 games are still too small of a sample size to overrule the previous 4 seasons. It is true that Hibbert is not a very efficient shooter. But he's not a 38% shooter either. He's closer to 47% (which is also his career average). Personally, I expect him to bounce back and eventually get his percentages back at 43 - 45%.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    Memphis has played the 8th most difficult schedule. The Pacers have played the 29th most difficult schedule. They are 14-5 beating playoff teams, we are 11-11 beating bottom feeders. That's reality.
    The fact that SoS does not take into account back-to-backs and home/away games is also a reality

    Plus, I'll remind you once again that the Grizzlies are not missing their best player atm

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    I got my years backwards on Zbo and Gay, Gay only played 54 games 2 years ago, either way, they've missed him 40+ games in 2 years and been good anyway. Point stands.
    Your point was that they remained competitive, right?

    Take a look at their 2010-11 season:

    http://www.basketball-reference.com/...011_games.html

    In the first 22 games, they were 8 - 14. With Gay, Randolph and Gasol healthy.

    The first time they hit .500 was at game 48, in the 29th of January against the Wizards. After that 24 - 24 they never fell below .500 again. Gay was injured in the 15th of February against the Sixers. The Grizzlies were 31 - 26 at the time (they won that game).

    The Grizzlies finished with a 46 - 36 record, going 15 - 10 after Gay's injury, with Sam Young playing starter minutes and contributing 9.3 PPG, 3.8 RPG and 1.4 APG.

    What I'm trying to say is simple. Were they competitive? They surely were. But they were the same kind of competitive that we are now. They were for a long time a sub .500 team with Gay but when they lost him they were an above .500 team that managed to stay afloat and even improve a bit.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    I guess I misunderstood you when you said, "Career wise? Sure. This year? No." About rebounding and then went on to talk career for the rest of your post.
    I did say that but I included career rebounding when I mentioned it afterwards
    Last edited by Nuntius; 12-14-2012 at 12:27 PM.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    James Harden is a primary ball handler for an offense that scores 12 more PPG than our offense. The idea of Paul being our primary ball handler is nightmare worthy.
    I don't necessarily disagree with that. But the point still stands that 5.4 APG and 4.2 Turnover per Game is not indicative of a great playmaker and passer.

    Is Harden a better ball handler than Paul George? He certainly is. But that doesn't necessarily translate to 10 times better playmaking and passing ability.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Johanvil View Post
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    Don't foget though it's only a 22 game slump.He is coming out of it any time now....
    Well, Granger was in a 33 game shooting slump last season

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    Above average league wide, or above average for a starting 2 guard I guess is the question there. He's probably average for a starting 3, he's below average if he gets shifted back to 2 by Granger. We'll have to see how that develops. 3.5 assists for 2.5 turnovers is certainly not the numbers you'd look for to define a good passer, and I've watched pretty much all of our games, our team ball movement is bad and PG is a part of that.
    I'm not sure how you can argue Paul's only an average passer at SF when he's 5th in assist. He's easily a potential top 10 passer from the SF position, and he's probably still above average for a SG. He had 21 turnovers the first 5 games with Green and Young starting since then he's averaged around 2 per which isn't bad when you're dishing out 4 assists.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    Regardless of it being a medical condition limiting his conditioning or laziness, which I never suggested, the fact is his conditioning limits his minutes. Also, I watched both of those games. In both games he was sucking air and his effectiveness was reduced due to him not being able to maintain good production at those minute levels. I mean, you're citing a game we lost where he played 40 minutes but only managed 8 rebounds, and a game against a bad team we barely won, he played 43 minutes, and only had 12-10. By the way ALL of those Miami games Gasol would have played 36-40, Hibbert game 5: 28 minutes, Hibbert game 4: 32 minutes, Hibbert game 3: 33 minutes, Hibbert game 2: 33 minutes, Hibbert game 1: 29 minutes. SO he played 1 game more than 36 minutes in the entire playoff series, and failed to get double digit rebounds. Yea. That's not helping your argument.
    Good point about those games.

    So, do you suggest that Hibs is not under medication to limit his asthma during important games? It can be limited for some time-spans. Do you think it's our team telling him not to use them or is he reluctant to do it?

    PS: My main argument actually is the validity of the per 36 stats. Even with Hibbert's asthma limiting him to 29 - 32 minutes, I think that his 24.7 career MPG is heavily skewed by the 14.4 MPG he played in his rookie year and thus that makes a per game head to head comparison not viable.
    Last edited by Nuntius; 12-14-2012 at 12:04 PM.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    I have real trouble directly comparing records that way. The West is so much more difficult than the East. A team playing roughly .500 ball in the West would probably be a 4-5 seed in the East. I would have to look at how their schedule broke down that season. If they were struggling against sub par teams then I concede the point, but I don't believe that's the case.

    I don't know anything about the effectiveness of Hibbert's medicine, when he does or doesn't use it, or the severity of the condition, I can only comment on what my eyes tell me when watching the game, and what the stats say afterword: Hibbert is not effective for more than ~30 minutes a game. Also I think his rookie season he had not yet been diagnosed/medicated for his condition, so that may also play into why he played so few minutes that year.

    re: 10 times the ball handler etc... it's a non quantitative metric, Is PG's ball handing a 2 and Harden's a 20? No, neither have a number associated with them in that manner, that's not how something like that is measured. However, the point is one guy is capable of being the primary handler in a good offense, and one guy can't even be the primary handler in a pretty bad offense. It is very clear which one is better, and that it's not real close.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    I tell you what Nuntius, if Hibbert finishes the season with a FG% of 45% or more, I will buy you a Hibbert jersey and ship it to you. I won't even be remotely upset to do it, because as down on him as I am, it's not that I want him to fail, it's just that I don't believe he's capable of the kind of success needed to warrant his contract.

    That begs the question of what success would it take for him to warrant his contract? ~50% from the floor, 14 ppg and his current defensive contribution.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    I tell you what Nuntius, if Hibbert finishes the season with a FG% of 45% or more, I will buy you a Hibbert jersey and ship it to you. I won't even be remotely upset to do it, because as down on him as I am, it's not that I want him to fail, it's just that I don't believe he's capable of the kind of success needed to warrant his contract.

    That begs the question of what success would it take for him to warrant his contract? ~50% from the floor, 14 ppg and his current defensive contribution.
    I think you're wrong too, and I live in Indy so shipping will be much cheaper

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    I have real trouble directly comparing records that way. The West is so much more difficult than the East. A team playing roughly .500 ball in the West would probably be a 4-5 seed in the East. I would have to look at how their schedule broke down that season. If they were struggling against sub par teams then I concede the point, but I don't believe that's the case.

    I don't know anything about the effectiveness of Hibbert's medicine, when he does or doesn't use it, or the severity of the condition, I can only comment on what my eyes tell me when watching the game, and what the stats say afterword: Hibbert is not effective for more than ~30 minutes a game. Also I think his rookie season he had not yet been diagnosed/medicated for his condition, so that may also play into why he played so few minutes that year.

    re: 10 times the ball handler etc... it's a non quantitative metric, Is PG's ball handing a 2 and Harden's a 20? No, neither have a number associated with them in that manner, that's not how something like that is measured. However, the point is one guy is capable of being the primary handler in a good offense, and one guy can't even be the primary handler in a pretty bad offense. It is very clear which one is better, and that it's not real close.
    Hibbert played so few minutes his rookie season because he was a fouling machine...
    Nothing in life worth having comes easy.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    I have real trouble directly comparing records that way. The West is so much more difficult than the East. A team playing roughly .500 ball in the West would probably be a 4-5 seed in the East. I would have to look at how their schedule broke down that season. If they were struggling against sub par teams then I concede the point, but I don't believe that's the case.
    I posted the schedule in my earlier post. Let's break it down:

    Game 1: 104 - 119 L to the Hawks

    Game 2: 91 - 90 W over the Mavs

    Game 3: 109 - 89 W over the T'Wolves

    Game 4: 105 - 124 L to the Lakers

    Game 5: 109 - 115 L to the Warriors (Warriors were 3 - 1 prior to this game but finished the season with 36 - 46)

    Game 6: 118 - 123 L to the Suns in 2OT (Suns were 2 - 3, finished with 40 - 42)

    Game 7: 100 - 91 W over the Kings

    Game 8: 109 - 99 W over the Suns

    Game 9: 91 - 106 L to the Mavs

    Game 10: 110 - 116 L to the Celtics in OT

    Game 11: 72 - 89 L to the Magic

    Game 12: 99 - 100 L to the Blazers

    Game 13: 86 - 89 L to the Wizards (the Wizards were 4 - 7 at the time, finished with 23 - 59)

    Game 14: 97 - 95 W over the Heat

    Game 15: 105 - 84 W over the Pistons

    Game 16: 116 - 111 W over the Warriors

    Game 17: 86 - 92 L to the Cavaliers (the post-LeBron Cavs were 7 - 9 at the time and ended with 19 - 63)

    Game 18: 98 - 96 W over the Lakers

    Game 19: 109 - 112 L to the Hawks

    Game 20: 111 - 127 L to the Rockets (the Rockets were 7 - 12 at the time but ended up 43 - 39)

    Game 21: 107 - 108 L to the Nuggets (prior to the Melo trade)

    Game 22: 85 - 94 L to the Jazz (prior to the Deron trade)

    10 of those games were home games. 12 of those games were away games. The Grizzlies also had to play in 8 back-to-backs in that stretch.

    So, it wasn't a particularly easy schedule. But still they lost to the Warriors, the Wizards and the LeBron-less Cavs.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    Also I think his rookie season he had not yet been diagnosed/medicated for his condition, so that may also play into why he played so few minutes that year.
    The asthma was diagnosed in 2010 so it's safe to say that this had nothing to do with why Hibbert didn't play a lot in his rookie season. My bet is that it was the coach.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    re: 10 times the ball handler etc... it's a non quantitative metric, Is PG's ball handing a 2 and Harden's a 20? No, neither have a number associated with them in that manner, that's not how something like that is measured. However, the point is one guy is capable of being the primary handler in a good offense, and one guy can't even be the primary handler in a pretty bad offense. It is very clear which one is better, and that it's not real close.
    I know that it's a non quantitative metric (nice way to put it, though).

    And I certainly agree that Harden has much better handles than PG. But I'm just not seeing the so much superior playmaking and passing ability. It doesn't translate to his stats. Maybe it's just the eye test?

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    I tell you what Nuntius, if Hibbert finishes the season with a FG% of 45% or more, I will buy you a Hibbert jersey and ship it to you. I won't even be remotely upset to do it, because as down on him as I am, it's not that I want him to fail, it's just that I don't believe he's capable of the kind of success needed to warrant his contract.
    Fair enough, I guess. I never said that Hibbert is not underperforming at the moment.

    It's just that he underperforms in a very certain area. He underperforms in shooting. His defense is better than last year. His rebounding is on par. His steals and assists numbers are comparable. His turnovers are exactly the same. There's only one area that has fallen off the face of the earth. And that's his shooting.

    Personally, I think that it's almost entirely psychological. Want to know what makes me think that it is psychological even more than Hibbert's known issues? His shooting splits.

    According to ESPN, Hibbert is actually shooting 45.1% on the road. That's right around the percentage that I expect him to shoot. However, in the home games Roy cannot buy a bucket. He is shooting 29.1% at home. Yes, you read it right. 29.1%!

    He's also forcing it a lot more when he's at home. He's attempting 12.2 FGAs at home and only 9.4 FGAs on the road.

    The combination of those two stats point out that Hibbert is under a self-enforced psychological barrier. He's trying to prove that he's worth the contract he got in front of his fans but he's failing to do so. And that ruins his confidence. That's the root of his offensive woes.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by spreedom View Post
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    I don't understand how anyone who's seen all of the guys play could think that A.) PG is nearly as good as Harden or B.) Hibbert is anywhere close to Gasol. Just my personal opinion, but I think we'd be close to the top of the East right now (even without Danny) if we had Harden and Gasol on our squad.
    Gasol doesn't even fantasize about playing the level of defense Roy is playing this year, and Paul is a better defender, better rebounder and a better 3P shooter than Harden. He's right on his heels for assists too given the way he's been playing lately.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    I tell you what Nuntius, if Hibbert finishes the season with a FG% of 45% or more, I will buy you a Hibbert jersey and ship it to you. I won't even be remotely upset to do it, because as down on him as I am, it's not that I want him to fail, it's just that I don't believe he's capable of the kind of success needed to warrant his contract.

    That begs the question of what success would it take for him to warrant his contract? ~50% from the floor, 14 ppg and his current defensive contribution.
    At 24 games in Hibbert has had 252 shots. 50 more games would be 74 which allows for some missed games. So double the FGAs for the rest of the way, ie 500 more, and he'd only have to shoot 49% to reach 45% for the season.

    Make sure to sign up for Amazon Prime to get the free shipping because the bar you set is extremely low. Maybe he won't make it, but personally I wouldn't put money on a bet that close.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
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    Gasol doesn't even fantasize about playing the level of defense Roy is playing this year, and Paul is a better defender, better rebounder and a better 3P shooter than Harden. He's right on his heels for assists too given the way he's been playing lately.
    I sure hope he at least fantasizes about it. And I think Roy's tremendous offensive struggles more than negate his defensive contributions.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by Dece View Post
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    Sorry, but it is pretty evident you don't actually watch the Grizzlies play. They have a dominant rebounding team and Gasol is a big part of that. There are only so many rebounds to get between Gay grabbing 6.5, Marc grabbing 7, and Zbo getting 13. He is a much better rebounder than Hibbert, shoots 10-15% better from the floor, and plays solid defense. It isn't close. There's a reason the Grizz are 14-5 playing in the much tougher West, were competitive without Zbo 2 years ago and competitive without Gay last year. Marc is a boss.

    Harden is crushing his first chance at starter, I'm really not sure how much more you can ask of a guy averaging nearly 25/5/5.
    Well maybe if you stopped watching the Griz you'd get around to watching the #1 rebounding team in the NBA instead, ie the Pacers. All this talk about how Paul isn't so hot, how Roy isn't so hot, yet they are destroying FG% left and right and yanking down rebounds with the best of them.

    The Pacers defensive FG% is .017 ahead of 2nd place. .017 is the same gap from 2nd to freaking 14th, that's how dominate their lead in that stat is. Memphis is 2nd in Off Reb% while Indy is only 10th, but Indy is 2nd in Def Reb% with Memphis all the way down at 22nd. Indiana has the most rebounds of any team in the NBA right now.

    So how is it that Gasol has to "share" rebounds with his dominate teammates but Hibbert doesn't have to share rebounds for the #1 rebounding team? Oh, right, West and Paul just stand around and watch while Roy gets a free shot at everything.


    This is my grass is greener problem. Memphis is great, one of the best teams in the NBA, but so are the Pacers except for Roy's shooting and the bench scoring. In every other way they are elite and that means they have elite caliber talent on the roster. Someone is defending those shots, someone is getting those rebounds. West isn't famous as a great defender, apparently Paul is junk compared to Harden, Roy can't hold Gasol's jock, and Danny's hurt.

    So I guess you must think it's all George Hill, blocking shots and pulling rebounds, maybe the greatest PG in the game today to be doing it all by himself. The Glove Part 2 on defense or something. Sheesh.

    How the F do the Pacers put up those stats without the participation of Roy and Paul? See my point is that some Pacers fans get used to seeing their own guys and start picking at the nits, while at the same time ignoring the flaws of other players because they are enamored with their positives. Vnzla makes fun of this because we all know that no one ever has done this in the history of life. I'm nearly running out of enough sarcasm to deal with some of this stuff.

    The fact that we can talk about Memphis and Indy in regards to rebounding and defense in the same context says a ton about the quality of Indy's players.

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by spreedom View Post
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    I sure hope he at least fantasizes about it. And I think Roy's tremendous offensive struggles more than negate his defensive contributions.
    No, I don't think Gasol's defensive dreams go beyond flopping for a charge call or shouting for Zbo to come help. And Roy's offensive struggles don't "more than negate" his defense. That's just failing to appreciate just how destructive his rim defense has been. Not just 3.7 blocks p36, but a truckload of altered shots at the rim. When Even Turner is throwing up Tyler specials at the rim because Roy is coming at him, that's a massive impact. Hibbert is #1 in shot blocks this year, the very best shot blocker in the league. Not Smits "holding his own by being tall" blocks, but Dikembe #1 in the NBA blocks.

    Oh, is Mutumbo too much for you to buy? Well DM had exactly two seasons with a higher block rate than Roy has going this season (4.4 and 4.2 p36, he had a 3rd year at Roy's current 3.7/36 rate). So he's getting into range of one of the most famous shot blockers of all time with his play this season, and that's not having more impact than 2 extra missed FGs a game? If Roy was shooting 50% he'd be the clear #1 AS center at this point.

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  38. #74
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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Naptown, two other areas that could stand considerable improvement are steals and turnovers.

    We are horrible at creating opponent turnovers, and we rarely get steals.

    Wondering if this is purely an attempt to slow down offense and/or force long 2's?

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    Default Re: Thunder/Pacers discussed Harden deal

    Quote Originally Posted by docpaul View Post
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    Naptown, two other areas that could stand considerable improvement are steals and turnovers.

    We are horrible at creating opponent turnovers, and we rarely get steals.

    Wondering if this is purely an attempt to slow down offense and/or force long 2's?
    I think a lot of it is just pace, but another is because we are playing good disciplined defense. Taking less chances means less steals, but it also means less easy points.

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