Harden would have been an incredible pick up for the Pacers
Harden would have been an incredible pick up for the Pacers
When you compare Paul and Harden at age 22, Paul this year vs Harden last year, you have Harden shooting a better 2P% and drawing more fouls (coming off the bench with Durant/W'brook as teammates) but rebounding less, blocking less and getting about the same steals.
Harden was moved to the primary guy when he went to Houston and his FG% dropped from the 49% level to 43%, and that 43% is in line with his 1st and 2nd seasons which makes the 49 the anomoly so far. Add to this a noticeable drop in 3P% with it falling to 34.5%. So while he's finally gotten to a 25 ppg season with Houston (so far), it's come at a usage cost. This is not to say Harden is not a good #1 option, it's just that if you trade Paul for Harden you have to expect a SITUATION IMPACT to Harden's numbers just like you see happening with his move to Houston.
So you won't be getting "off the bench with Durant and W'Brook as primary threats" Harden. I love BAMF and Hill, but they aren't the threats that those 2 are. So when I see Paul starting to have his offense really click, matched with already decent early career numbers, I think that we have a similar level of talent guy here already and swapping him + another item of value for Harden is just a bad deal.
Harden's p36 Points/eFG%
15.6 / 48.4
16.4 / 51.8
19.3 / 58.2
23.1 / 49.1
Paul's p36 Points/eFG%
13.5 / 50.5
14.7 / 51.0
16.5 / 49.8
And by the way, since the 0 points game Paul has put up these numbers
Based on how he played last night, using his cross step to drive to the rim with confidence, I'd say that Paul has had a "click" moment and is starting to figure out who he is in the NBA. That would match the type of improvement we saw Harden take last year, but in a 6th man role that was more favorable to quality shots.
Sort of, but as my last post details, I don't see these guys as different enough to pay a price for a trade. Harden has been a more confident scorer in general, but Paul's height and hops give him a big rebound and defense advantage. Harden's sharp, but he and Paul are about the same age so both are really the same guy in the "win now" mode, which is the younger guy just getting his feet wet at the start of the team's run. He's the guy that becomes the "build with him" guy, a bit like Rose was in 98.
Harden is not Nash, he's not the proven win-now leader, he's been the proven win-now bench star.
Trading Paul for Harden would seem like paper shuffling to me, slight tweeks that improve offensive firepower a bit with a trade-off of slight defense and rebounds. The Pacers don't need that, not with Granger here. What they need is Granger himself. Then Paul/Harden isn't in the primary scoring role.
In fact if Roy would figure things out and with West and Hill already here, the Paul/Harden role teeters on 5th option status, and prior to this fall that's where things appeared to be. Even now I think we've seen West and Hill assert themselves as the go-to guys with Paul backfilling and finding his way. It's only in the last 5 games that we've finally started to see Paul becoming a true dribble-attack scorer with effectiveness.
Harden for Granger, sure. That's adjusting positions to get Paul to SF, getting younger and getting healthy. But no one would do that deal, so you'd have to pay and you'd probably have to pay "West" kinda value. So you start getting pushed back into "maybe we should just wait for Danny to return" because it's kinda expensive to buy your way out of a 3 month injury (unless it's surprisingly much worse).
First we have people claiming Hibbert is as good as Marc Gasol... now we have people saying Paul is as good as Harden. C'mon guys, I know its a Pacers board so we're gonna have bias, but let's try to make it at least sorta feasible. A team with Gasol and Harden is not struggling to be .500 playing our super weak schedule.
Sorry, but it is pretty evident you don't actually watch the Grizzlies play. They have a dominant rebounding team and Gasol is a big part of that. There are only so many rebounds to get between Gay grabbing 6.5, Marc grabbing 7, and Zbo getting 13. He is a much better rebounder than Hibbert, shoots 10-15% better from the floor, and plays solid defense. It isn't close. There's a reason the Grizz are 14-5 playing in the much tougher West, were competitive without Zbo 2 years ago and competitive without Gay last year. Marc is a boss.
Harden is crushing his first chance at starter, I'm really not sure how much more you can ask of a guy averaging nearly 25/5/5.
Personally I would keep PG. PG is a better rebounder, passer and much better defender. Sure Harden might be a better scorer, but theres more to basketball than just scoring. Either way, PG seems to be scoring well the past few games also
"So, which one of you guys is going to come in second?" - Larry Bird before the 3 point contest. He won.
Paul George has many things going for him. Great defender, dominant rebounder by position. A above average passing game is not one of them. Harden is 10 times the ball handler and passer that PG is, and it hurts your credibility to suggest otherwise. Paul George is a very nice player. There is no shame in being worse than a player putting up 25/5/5.
Btw, for a guy who's "10 times the ball handler and passer that PG is," while Harden is averaging 1.9 APG more, he also turns it over 1.8 more times per game more. For a team that scores 13 points more per game than us, so there's more assists to go around. So while I agree that Harden is better, it's not by as significant margin as you seem to be saying.
Above average league wide, or above average for a starting 2 guard I guess is the question there. He's probably average for a starting 3, he's below average if he gets shifted back to 2 by Granger. We'll have to see how that develops. 3.5 assists for 2.5 turnovers is certainly not the numbers you'd look for to define a good passer, and I've watched pretty much all of our games, our team ball movement is bad and PG is a part of that.
But he makes good passes and his decision making has gotten a lot better over the season as he's adjusted to having the ball in his hands more often. I think he's an above average passer for a wing in general, but only slightly.
My real point was that Harden isn't as good as you're saying, I believe our views on George are a bit closer. Harden's got 5.4 APG and 4.2 TOPG, so he's not exactly efficient. He just has the ball a lot, and he's looking to score first.
I'd take Harden for any player on this team. Bonafide superstar, #1 option, super quick, and not to mention crafty playmaker.
Also, harping on a guy's TO/game doesn't say much when Harden didn't even have a training camp with Houston, he literally showed up and played the afternoon he was traded.
Last edited by graphic-er; 12-14-2012 at 01:05 AM.
You can't get champagne from a garden hose.
I don't know what Paul's usage rate is the past 5 games, but he has been shooting it at about the same rate as Harden for the season while averaging 1.8 TOs and 3.8 ASTs on well over 50% shooting, and averaging about the same amount of points. All the while being one of the top defenders at his position. It is only 5 games though, could easily just be an anomaly (I don't think anyone should expect Paul's shooting % to stay above 50%), although if it isn't George would already be a clearly better player than Harden.
Are you sure you aren't overreacting a bit? And a bit off-topic as well; I never said PG was better than Harden or even as good as Harden. In fact, in the paragraph you cut off, my opening sentence asserts that Harden is the better playmaker. You're arguing against me saying that Harden isn't 10 times a better ball handler and passer than Paul George. Which he isn't. I happened to use rudimentary assist and turnover stats because they show that Harden has flaws in the area just the same as Paul George.
And I think anybody who turns the ball over 4 times a game deserves to be harped on for such. Houston leads the league in turnovers, so let's not pretend that the turnovers there are solely a cause of a lack of training camp time for him. We're 20 games into the season, if he was going to lower his TOs this season drastically with familiarity he would have done so.
Also, his usage rate isn't really that much higher. It's 28.3 for Harden compared to 22.7 for Paul George.
I don't get what you're saying about being competitve without Gay last year. Rudy played (and started) in 65 games last season according to basketball reference (http://www.basketball-reference.com/...g/gayru01.html). It was ZBO that was out for the year and played only 28 games (started at 8 of them).
Yes, Memphis was good without ZBO and is now even better with him. But they had decent big man depth last year that was able to replace him (Speights, Cunningham).
I'm guessing that you're letting Hibbert's performance this year to cloud your judgement over his career numbers?
Roy's worse shooting year was 46.1%. At the moment, he is shooting 37.5%. That's almost 9% lower than his career low. It's a statistical outlier so far. I expect it to change and normalize at mid 40s (44-45%).
Roy Hibbert: 11.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.7 BPG, 1.6 APG, 0.4 SPG. Also, 1.7 Turnovers and 3.2 Personal Fouls. In 24.7 MPG.
Marc Gasol: 13.2 PPG, 8 RPG, 1.5 BPG, 2.5 APG, 0.9 SPG. Also, 1.9 Turnovers and 3.3 Personal Fouls. In 33.7 MPG.
Marc has the advantage in every statistical category except for blocks. But he also plays 9 minutes more than Hibs. Should we take a look at their per 36 numbers and compare how they do when they get equal minutes?
Per 36 career numbers:
Roy Hibbert: 16.1 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 2.5 BPG, 2.3 APG, 0.6 SPG. Also, 2.6 Turnovers and 4.3 Personal Fouls.
Marc Gasol: 14.2 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 1.6 BPG, 2.7 APG, 0.9 SPG. Also, 2.0 Turnovers and 3.5 Personal Fouls.
This time Hibbert has the upper hand in every statistical category except assists and steals. However, he is also proved more turnover prone and more foul prone in higher usage. But he's still scoring, rebounding and blocking in higher volumes according to those numbers.
I'm sure that few people are going to cringe in the usage of per 36 stats for Hibs as he doesn't play big minutes often (and has been cited to have asthma issues that could prevent him from playing big minutes).
But that really is the only way to compare the two players in equal footing. Hibbert had to fight for his minutes here. He played 14.4 MPG in his rookie season and 25.1 in his second season. Marc didn't have to fight for his minutes. He played 30.7 MPG in his rookie season and 35.8 in his second season.
Do you ask why? Well, simply put the Grizzlies had to play Marc. He was the most important asset that they received for Pau Gasol and thus he had to get major playing time. And it worked out great for them as Marc seems as the better Gasol at the moment. On the other hand, we didn't have to play Roy and we didn't. Therefore, a per 36 comparison is probably the fairest.
Per 36, Paul George is averaging 2.7 APG and Harden is averaging 3.5 APG.
Those numbers prove Harden as a better playmaker and passer than PG. But the difference between the two is not as big as you seem to think. It certainly isn't "10 times better".
So Nuntius... you want to use THIS year's numbers for rebounding, but CAREER number's for offensive production? Could you be anymore disingenuous? I mean, that's fine, cherry pick all day, but don't expect me to not roll my eyes and ignore you afterword. Per 36 numbers are pointless, Roy has shown he is not able to be on the floor that much. He simply doesn't have the conditioning. That's a valuable point, because a team wants their best players on the floor as much as possible in must win situations. Game 7 Marc can give you 40 quality minutes. Roy can only give you 32. This is a legitimate knock on him.
The season is a quarter over, Hibbert is shooting 38%. A quarter season is not a slump. A quarter season is, "this is the player we have now."
Memphis has played the 8th most difficult schedule. The Pacers have played the 29th most difficult schedule. They are 14-5 beating playoff teams, we are 11-11 beating bottom feeders. That's reality.
I got my years backwards on Zbo and Gay, Gay only played 54 games 2 years ago, either way, they've missed him 40+ games in 2 years and been good anyway. Point stands.
Even if Gasol has a relative low average rebounds per game,he compensates that by being 4 and 5 times better than Hibbert on offense this year.The stats may not show that completely but it only takes once or twice to watch them this year to see the difference.Roy i think is better at D and more dominant but i would gladly have Gasol over Roy.Don't foget though it's only a 22 game slump.He is coming out of it any time now...It's ironic saying it(coming out of the slump) but i would give everything to actually see it.His latest offensive performance against Cleveland was almost despicable.
Last edited by Johanvil; 12-14-2012 at 10:32 AM.