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Basically it's a question of Milwaukee or Philly to me, barring of course the unexpected. Tough call. Two good coaches who tend to get as much out of players as they can and have them playing playoff-style ball. Neither has a good front court IMO. One has Holiday and Turner, the other Jennings and Ellis, in the backcourt. Smaller/stretchy fours. Tough call.
Right now, here are their respective Off Eff and Def Eff:
Philly: 99.3 and 101.6 (Net of -2.3)
Milwaukee: 99.3 and 100.9. (Net of -1.6)
So I'll give the nod to the Bucks making the playoffs and Philly missing them, but it's truly a toss up at this point.
I picked Philly, but I think the bottom spots will be decided by injuries. If Philly gets Bynum back I think they move by the Bucks, but it will depend on how soon they get him back. Of course other teams could suddenly drop if the injury bug hits them too.