this thread got derailed huh?
this thread got derailed huh?
If games are won and lost on a calculator and piece of paper, then why do we bother to play them?
To clarify, I was using BBR and pulled the "career including 12-13 numbers" data, not just the 2013 numbers. My mistake.
And with LetsTalkPacers comment in mind, I'll put this long stats list in a spoiler to keep the post length shorter since it's not on the Ben topic. Summary, these numbers put Tyler in a better but still not great light.
Anyway, sorry for the confusion. I got rushed and caught my mistake when I went back to proof/reality check my post. I'll leave it for thread clarity sends some people responded.
Last edited by Naptown_Seth; 12-11-2012 at 02:18 PM.
The problem for Tyler is not so much that he's been an active detriment that he was last year with being a black hole and a poor rebounder. Now he is just mainly invisible. He has rebounded at a solid rate (mainly offensive) and is one of the best in the NBA at getting to the line. He has shot even worse, but has not taken nearly as many shots. He's just kind of out there chewing up minutes without impacting the game very much.
That's actually exactly what he has been doing. If he wasn't doing that, his PPFGA would be beyond abysmal.
His FT numbers are borderline historic. Tyler is averaging 16.5 minutes and 3.9 free throws per game this year. Do you know how many players have averaged less than 20 minutes per game, and have also averaged 4 free throws a game? There have been six. Six. Ever.
I used to be a guy that believed that putting up good numbers on a bad team didn't make any sense. However that's changed a lot in the last year or so. The reason? There was one thing I overlooked that goes in favor of a player that is the best player on a bad team. Garbage Time.
The best player on a bad team usually spends more time matched up against bench players than a player like LeBron. For instance, look at that terrible Charlotte team last year. How many times were they down by 20 points 2 minutes into the 4th quarter? At that point the other team, let's say its the Celtics, is going to pull their starters. Charlotte is playing from behind and they're trying to get into a rhythm for the next game so they leave DJ out there and he goes to work. He's racking up points and dishing out dimes against the C's bench. I think he's one of those players that will only produce when there's no pressure to perform. Ramon Sessions is another good example.
"Every time I pitched it was like throwing gasoline on a fire. Pkkw! Pkkw! Pkkw! Pkkw!"
- Ebby Calvin "Nuke" LaLoosh
This might be a touch hyperbolic. Hakim Warrick is only getting 10 mpg (in 9 games) and has a higher FTp36 than Tyler. The qualifier for this situation (less than 20 but 4 FT/game) makes it more about the oddity of it than the historic benchmark of it. The idea carries as much negative as positive - a guy that can get 8.4 FTA p36 (Kobe's rate btw) but CAN'T get more than 16-17 mpg suggests a serious issue offsetting any benefit from his FTAs.
But you and I do agree that he draws them like a madman. He's 7th this year in FTA/36 if you remove players with less than 50 minutes played (he's over 300).
However while running BBR to find this out I saw that while the list featured mostly great scorers (Kobe, Durant, Harden, Melo) or troublesome bigs (Love #1, Howard #2, Nene#3) there was another guy, a very Tyler guy that I'd much rather have on the team - Mbah a Moute. He's getting 8.2 p36, his rebounds are almost identical and he has a lot more assists. Of course this is in 5 games and his FTAs are way above his career standard of about 3.7 p36 .
I did a search for most FTA/36 for guys with less than 25 mpg but at least 300 minutes played total in the last 15 years and found that while Tyler was 4th and 7th on that list, the top of the list (and also 8th) was Danny Fortson at Seattle in 04-05 (8.9/36 in 1000 minutes). And he shot 88% from FT that year, so it wasn't like they hacked him to keep him from scoring.
Leon Powe was 2nd, 10th and 12th. Malik Rose was 3rd. Zendon Hamilton made the list twice, as did Magette.
It takes a bit of the luster off the stat though it's still impressive and definitely helpful. You'd never say "I wish that guy drew less fouls", although I often wonder why so many guys do foul Tyler when others have so much success waiting him out. He's the ONLY guy with seasons in the top 60-70 that shot below 40% eFG (a few others were below but made 3s as well, like Matt Carroll), and both his #4 (this year) and #7 (09-10) are well below 40 (37.6 and 36% eFG).
Last edited by Naptown_Seth; 12-11-2012 at 03:15 PM.
They put Wade on him and that's how the Bobcats would get down 20. It would take a lot of garbage time to overcome the first 24-30 minutes of seeing someone crush your numbers.
How many actual cases are there of guys with signifcant statistical drops when leaving a bad team and going to a good team? Or for that matter, how about players who played on the same roster as it went up and down in talent around them? Reggie played on subpar teams, did his FG% go down when the team was better?
And how about good players on good teams that go to bad teams and suddenly struggle to keep up the same FG% and stats per minute? That would suggest that the opposite effect is in play and would contradict the theory.
Lin is not better by being in Houston instead of NY, and in fact during his best run the Knicks were winning games, not losing them.
Those are some great points too. However, Lin is coming back from knee surgery so I figured that this season would be a down one from last year no matter what. That 38 points he dropped last night was impressive though.
I do think I need to put more flesh on the bones of my theory. When I have time, I'll try to look up some 4th quarter stats for DJ from last year to see if he performed better during the 4th quarter.
So.... Whatcha gonna do when Hansbroughmania runs wild on you ?!
I just feel bad for the guy injury after injury. QUOTE]
Oden, Elliot Williams, and Pendgraph. Portland must be cursed.
"I had to take her down like Chris Brown."
losing Oden,Roy ect to career enders in basketball is rare. In football not so much your lucky to play 5 years in the NFL with how physically demanding it is. Injuries happen the Colts didn't have it worse than anyone else.
I was speaking more for Pendy dude has never been healthy at the start of an NBA season. Hard to break into the rotation with that kind of luck without a camp you are playing catch-up all year.
Funny that some people really believe that Mcbob is more than just an scrub I wonder how long more until they realize that? the guy is garbage nothing else, I still remember the people that thought he was going to get at least MLE
And for those that want to bring Pendergraph for Tyler stop it, if Pendersuck has shown anything all this time is that he sucks.
Valid point to a degree. For years, I've read posters state how could A Randolph, Jordan Hill, Gerald Green, etc be any good b/c of the amount of teams they have played for. Yet, I make a similar statement concerning McBob's travels, and get questioned about it.
The ironic part is that Jordan Hill is the one who took McBob's job from him with the Lakers.
Of the 2 often traveled players, I'll take Jack hands down over McBob. IIRC, both are in contract years, it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
As long as Ben actually gets a legitimate shot (i.e. this isn't just a 1 game thing), he is going to surprise some people. Just wait and see. I posted on here several years ago saying he was an NBA prospect after his 1st season at Notre Dame, and the vast majority disagreed with me.
I still predict he is cut and Ben Uzoh or Andrew Goudelock get picked up(or more likely a trade). Uzoh is a plus defender but his offense is terrible(although has improved this season). Goudelock fits what we do on offense I wouldn't be surprised to see him in a Pacers uni.
also is Chris Douglus Roberts a cancer or something? He is better than a lot of the end of the bench players in the league. I bet he will be this years Gerald Green. Watched him score an efficient 50 for Eddie Najera(gets award for most fit coach) few weeks back and he is getting 30 almost every game I watch him. He isnt getting a cheap 30 either he looks much improved from his younger days.
Last edited by pacer4ever; 12-11-2012 at 10:13 PM.
Here's my quick take on Ben.
He regularly hits between 70 and 75 3 pointers out of 100 in the gym (don't get too excited fellows these are wide OPEN 3 pointers in practice/open gyms). Of course, sometimes he does better and sometimes worse, but that's the average. The GREAT 3-point shooters in the NBA (Ray Allen, Dirk, etc.) are probably somewhere between 80-85 regularly. I don't have firsthand knowledge of that, but I've heard stories of Dirk/Ray hitting 90 out of 100 with the idea that it was "above average" for them (they were excited). So the shooting touch for Ben is there.
However, here is the caveats. He is better shooter "on the move"--at ND he was expected to BE THE OFFENSE. He's not a pure spot up shooter--he likely needs to take 1 step forward to be most effective. That hurts when you aren't the best (or heck even the 6th best) player on the team. Of course, guys like Ray Allen/Dirk are much better at getting off their shots than Ben. Don't mistake what I'm saying--he's not comparable to them, but he has a pure shooting touch that puts him above average for NBA guards. It's too bad he didn't go to a bigger program where he could have been more of a spot up shooter (which would translate better for him in the NBA).
Defense: I'll admit he will have trouble guarding quick PGs--they will get around him sometimes. Although, not as much as you'd think. He was able to guard guys like Kemba Walker in college, but guys in the NBA are just too quick. This might kill him on some teams. However, the Pacers have Big Roy & Ian in the middle so when these guys get around him Roy & Ian will be there. Also, he isn't small, even by NBA standards,--about 6'3" or 6'4" so guys won't be able to shoot over him easily (I'm more worried about the 3 point line here--guys may be able to get enough space to make some jumpers on him). I don't think he will be as much as a defensive liability as people think he will be, and that's partly because of Roy, Ian, etc.. On a team without a big defensive presence, he would be much more exposed.
I am biased, but I also think he is a much better passer than people think. Not a "true" NBA point guard, but he just has an uncanny ability to make plays. He won't wow you, but he never misses the obvious pass and consistently surprises you (see alley oop to Gerald Green).
Ball-handling: Guys I watched him shred full court pressure regularly in the Big East (see some of the Louisville games if you don't believe me). He won't ever wow you with his dribbling, but he won't turn the ball over either. He can get the ball up the court. And he knows when to pass it when he's in trouble in ball-handling situations.
His rebounding is above average for a guard (even an NBA PG). I'm not currently sure if he will be able to drive much in the NBA, but I think he just needs time to adjust to how big these these guys are. Give him a year of playing time and he could make 2 or 3 layups a game. And don't forget his biggest asset--the open 3 pointer.
This was a quick writeup in 5 mins, but you guys get the picture. If he gets the chance, he will impress.
Last edited by JohnWild; 12-11-2012 at 11:08 PM.
Just wait and see. If Ben can't be better than DJ, we don't loss anything.
If Ben is not good as DJ, maybe FV can try let DJ start.
Let DJ has a better teammates, Hill goes to backup PG but has starting lineup minutes.
We should give DJ more chances, don't give up him so quickly.